美联储内斗升级，下周美联储利率决议预期再度生变？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析中，点击进入直 播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The July Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the expectation that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates, impacting the domestic capital market outlook negatively [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed willingness to serve as the next Fed Chair if requested by President Trump, but this possibility seems unlikely as the President has not reached out [3] - Reports indicate that Treasury Secretary Yellen advised Trump that there is no need to dismiss Powell given the current positive economic conditions and market reactions [3] Group 3 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations last week, showing a general upward trend despite some pullbacks [4] - Technical indicators suggest that gold may be entering a new upward phase, with MACD signals indicating a potential shift [4] - Gold is currently within a wedge pattern, with resistance at 3385, and if the market does not see significant pullbacks, further upward movement is anticipated [4] Group 4 - A critical resistance level for gold is at 3400; failure to break this level may lead to further declines [6] - The operational strategy for gold trading suggests a cautious optimism, with specific support and resistance levels identified for trading decisions [6]

当地时间7月9日， 美股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘， 纳斯达克指数上涨0.94%， 创历史新高； 道 琼斯工业指数上涨0.49%，标普500指数上涨0.61%。 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会6月17日至18日的会议纪要。 会议纪要显示，美联储 同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普9日上午致信菲律宾、文莱、摩尔多瓦、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克和利比亚6 个国家的领导人，通知他们将对这些国家输美商品征收新关税，新税率 将从8月1日起生效。 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 美联储会议纪要公布 内部分歧明显 美股大型科技股 多数上涨 ，美国科技七巨头指数上涨1.25%。 据央视新闻报道， 美联储公布的6月会议纪要 显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明经济活 动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然略高。 与会者 一致认为，经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 英伟达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple influencing factors, including macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal demand variations [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The expiration of U.S. Treasury bonds in June has raised market concerns - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid inflation and tariff issues reflects a hawkish stance, limiting the likelihood of rate cuts [1] Market Conditions - The textile industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with the operating rate in Foshan's Zhangcha weaving mills at only 1-2 layers - Concerns are growing about a potential decrease in operating rates for textile enterprises in July and August [1] Geopolitical Influences - The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, along with U.S. military aid to Israel, has garnered global attention and may impact market sentiment [1] CFTC Holdings - The CFTC's net short position has increased by 4,400 contracts to 36,700 contracts, contributing to a weakening of foreign cotton prices [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic commercial inventory is expected to be between 1.55 to 1.8 million tons by the end of August, which, while tight, is less severe than previously anticipated, supporting the September contract [1] - Global production is projected to increase, with Xinjiang's output estimated at 7.2 to 7.5 million tons and Brazil's at 3.95 million tons, while U.S. cotton production remains uncertain due to drought conditions [1] Consumption Outlook - The consumption outlook is highly variable, dependent on U.S. tariff policies and the timing of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The market sentiment is cautious, with significant uncertainty regarding cotton usage from July to September [1] Price Projections - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,276 to 13,570, with a focus on potential price declines in July and August, while the downside is seen as limited between 12,500 to 13,000 [1] - Long-term, increased supply is anticipated, but uncertainties in macroeconomic conditions and consumer behavior remain [1]

金十数据6月26日讯，据外媒分析报道，如果特朗普在9月的美联储利率决议之前宣布鲍威尔的接班人， 那么美元的形势可能会由"坏"变成"更坏"。因为一旦如此，意味着鲍威尔任期内剩下的六次会议都将 在"继任者阴影"下进行（其任期将于明年5月结束），这可能削弱鲍威尔的权威，进而打击美元。如果 鲍威尔领导的美联储在下月连续第五次按兵不动，那么这种情况发生的几率就会增加，因为那将激怒特 朗普。当前市场预计美联储在7月30日降息的概率为25%。 外媒：若美联储7月不降息，特朗普将给鲍威尔安排个"影子" ...

Group 1 - The week has been particularly challenging for gold bulls, not due to significant price drops, but because geopolitical tensions have not supported gold prices, leading to a sharp decline [3][5] - Gold experienced a significant drop, with a maximum decline of $112, reaching a low of $3340 during the week, and closing with a small gain on Friday [3][8] - The upcoming week is critical for gold, with the $3340 level being a key support point; if it breaks down, further declines to the $3300-$3295 range may occur [8][10] Group 2 - The situation in Iran is escalating, with the U.S. conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which could lead to significant impacts on oil and gold prices if the situation deteriorates further [5][6] - The United Nations Security Council is convening an emergency meeting regarding the U.S. strikes on Iran, indicating the seriousness of the geopolitical situation [6] - Iran has threatened retaliation, which could further destabilize the region and impact global markets [5][6] Group 3 - The oil market has seen significant volatility, with recent weeks experiencing major price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran [14] - If oil prices open high, traders may consider short positions initially, but the overall sentiment remains bullish as geopolitical factors could drive prices higher [14] - The dollar index has shown signs of stabilization, with a potential target range of 101.5 to 102, indicating a possible rebound in the currency [17]

XAU/USD（黄金） 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点 黄金周三维持窄幅震荡，凌晨受美联储利率决议及鲍威尔讲话影响，金价短暂下探3363后反弹，日线收带上下影线阴线。美联储虽维持年内降息50基点预 期，但放缓未来降息节奏，叠加中东局势升温，多空因素交织限制波动。当前1小时级别宽幅震荡进入第3日，方向突破在即，日内建议保持谨慎。 关键点位与操作建议 压力位：3423、3400 支撑位：3363、3345 策略：日内观望为主，静待区间突破后顺势操作；激进者可结合M5模型于趋势线附近短线博弈。 三色线交易策略 H1三色线维持绿色，前期3403空单已盈利100点离场。今日以M5模型为主，关注H1趋势线阻力有效性。 EUR/USD（欧美） 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点 欧美周三震荡收跌，日线录得十字阴线。欧元区经济数据未超预期，美联储按兵不动但维持鹰派立场，美元受避险需求支撑。欧美日内波幅70点，尾盘收于 1.146附近，短期趋势仍偏弱。 关键点位与操作建议 压力位：1.152、1.156 支撑位：1.139、1.134 策略：早盘已下破，建议反弹至1.149-1.150做空，止损1.155，目标30-5 ...

美东时间 6 月 18 日周三，美国三大股指涨跌不一，美联储维持利率不变。投资者担忧美国 可能更直接军事介入以色列与伊朗的交火。伊朗最高领袖表示，美国军事干预将招致无法挽 回的后果。 稳定币第一股 Circle 涨近 34% ，创 6 月 5 日美国 IPO 以来最大单日涨幅。 WTI 收于每桶 75 美元上方，创下 1 月以来的最高收盘价。 美联储维持利率不变 截至收盘，道指跌 0.1% ，报 42171.66 点；标普 500 指数跌 0.03% ，报 5980.87 点； 纳指涨 0.13% ，报 19546.27 点。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/18，不作投资推荐） 美联储公布 6 月利率决议，将基准利率维持在 4.25% ～ 4.50% 不变，连续第四次会议按兵 不动，符合市场预期。 美联储表示，前景的不确定性已减弱，但仍然处于较高水平。美联储将 2025 年 GDP 预估 下调至 1.4% ，将通胀预期上调至 3% 。 根据美联储的点阵图预测， 2025 年预计实施两次降息，共 50 个基点 ，这与三月份的预期 相符。然而， 2026 年降息幅度将仅为 25 个基点，之前预 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake, regardless of the market conditions [1] - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, characterized by rapid price swings and a "super sweep" phenomenon, which is expected to continue [1][3] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, have not significantly influenced gold prices, which remain under pressure below the 3400 level [3] Group 2 - Current support for gold is precarious at the 3120 level, with potential downward movements targeting 3345-50, 3330, and 3300 if broken [5] - Resistance levels for gold are identified at 3385 and 3400, with a breakout above 3400 necessary for bullish momentum to continue [5] - Silver is expected to face resistance at 37.3, with further levels at 37.7 and 38.2 for short positions, while support is noted at 35.5 and 34.6 [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai gold and silver markets suggest a bearish outlook, with short positions recommended above 9000 for silver and specific resistance levels for gold at 795 and 800 [7] - The crude oil market is also experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical factors, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index shows signs of stabilization after a decline, with potential targets set at the 102 level if recent lows are not breached [12] - The S&P 500 futures are being held in short positions, with expectations of breaking the 5920 level, while caution is advised against unexpected market rallies [9][16]

>?@ABCDEFGHI2025-06-19 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 6 $%&'()*+,-./01 ——!"#$%&'&2 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 5 月利率决议，将利率维持在 4.25%- 4.50%。 （1）关税扰动、分歧加大：美联储本次会议释放出关税对通胀形成干扰、内部对降息 路径分歧加大的信号，显示政策转向更为谨慎和依赖数据。 （2）删除了对滞胀的担忧：美联储声明删除了关于失业和通胀同时上升的表述，显示 其对 "滞胀" 风险的担忧有所缓解，政策重心重新回归对通胀单一目标的观察与评估。 &'"( n !"# 6 $%&'()* +,-./0123 在 6 月 FOMC 会议中，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次按兵 不动。尽管通胀依然高于 2%的目标， ...