Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce on the 8th, reaching a historic high of $4,039.14 per ounce, driven by investor concerns over the outlook for the US dollar and other currencies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly buying gold and other alternative assets, leading to a rise in "currency devaluation trades" on Wall Street [1] - Gold has replaced the euro as the world's second-largest reserve asset this year [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The current surge in gold prices is distinct from previous trends, as it is not triggered by a financial collapse [1] - Investors are speculating on continued increases in gold prices while seeking to hedge against potential consequences of US policy failures, including rising budget deficits and government shutdowns [1] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Joe Davis, Chief Economist at Vanguard, noted a tug-of-war in the market, with the S&P 500 reflecting an AI boom while the gold camp is concerned about structural deficits and fiscal pressures in the US [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggested that even with gold prices exceeding $4,000, investors should allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold for risk diversification, drawing parallels to the early 1970s when inflation was high and confidence in dollar assets collapsed [1]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成 担忧美元及其他主要货币前景的投资者正大举涌入黄金、比特币与其他另类资产，助推着华尔街所谓 的"货币贬值交易"持续升温。 自美联储主席鲍威尔8月释放该央行将在低失业率与高通胀环境下开启降息的信号以来，交易员持续抢 购黄金，推动金价连创纪录。周二交投最活跃的黄金期货价格史上首次突破每盎司4000美元，紧接着周 三上午，现货黄金亦大举突破4000美元大关，目前正逼近4030美元，日内涨幅超1%。 2025年的这轮黄金涨势不同寻常之处在于，它并非由金融危机所驱动。期货市场年内52%的涨幅，有望 超越新冠疫情首年与2007-2009年衰退期间的同类涨势，仅次于1979年通胀冲击时的表现。 当前投资者正将资金倾注于黄金等贵金属与比特币等加密货币，与此同时，特朗普承诺通过减税刺激经 济，交易员则带着对人工智能的全方位狂热将股市推至历史新高。 与此同时，即使对股市和经济前景乐观的投资者也开始转向贵金属寻求保护。晨星Direct数据显示，交 易员9月向美国实物黄金交易所交易基金投入了创纪录的330亿美元。上周，贝莱德调整了其模型投资组 合——该组合被数千名财务顾问所跟踪—— ...

Core Insights - Unexpected political turmoil in Japan and France is impacting global financial markets, raising concerns about the fiscal stability of major economies and leading to significant sell-offs in Japanese and French government bonds [1] Group 1: Japan's Political Shift - The unexpected victory of Sanna Takashi in the ruling party leadership election has locked in her position as the next Prime Minister, which is interpreted as a signal for increased government spending and potential inflation [2][3] - Following this political shift, the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.8% against the US dollar and reached a historical low against the euro, while the 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level in over a decade [3] Group 2: France's Political Crisis - The sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, just a month into his term, has deepened the political crisis in France, marking the fifth Prime Minister to resign in two years due to challenges in passing fiscal measures [3] - This political instability has led to a rise in French government bond yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 3.6%, and the spread between French and German bond yields widening to 89 basis points [3] Group 3: Shift to Safe-Haven Assets - The political upheavals in Japan and France have intensified investor concerns regarding the fiscal health of major economies, prompting a shift towards "currency devaluation trades" as investors move away from traditional currencies [4][5] - As a result, alternative assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin are experiencing significant demand, with gold prices reaching new highs and Bitcoin trading near its historical peak [6]

与此同时，法国总理勒科尔尼（Sebastien Lecornu）在上任不到一个月后突然辞职，使该国政治危机进 一步加深。此举引发法国国债收益率大幅上行，该国与德国的国债收益率息差也随之扩大，市场对法国 控制欧元区最大规模财政赤字能力的疑虑骤然升温。 意外的政治动荡正从东京和巴黎冲击全球金融市场，市场对主要经济体财政稳定性的担忧加剧，导致日 本和法国国债遭遇猛烈抛售。 在日本，支持财政刺激政策的高市早苗在执政党党首选举中获胜，基本锁定下一任首相之位，这一出乎 意料的结果推动日本10年期国债收益率飙升至2008年以来的最高点。市场正为日本央行可能更趋鸽派以 及政府支出进一步扩张的前景做准备。 这些突发事件正在催化一场所谓的"货币贬值交易"。面对发达经济体日益堆积的债务，投资者正在从日 元、欧元等主要货币撤离，转向黄金、白银和比特币等被视为更安全的资产。 日本政坛意外转向，宽松预期重压债市 日本市场的动荡源于一场出乎意料的政治换届。此前，投资者普遍预计更为审慎财政的小泉进次郎将赢 得自民党党首选举，市场也已基本消化了日本央行将继续推进货币政策正常化的预期。 然而，最终在竞选中胜出的是高市早苗。她去年在竞选期间曾称加 ...

金价持续攀升，COMEX黄金一度突破每盎司4000美元的历史关口，市场气氛可谓"多头狂热"。 此外，伦敦现货黄金也上涨0.35%至3974美元/盎司，再度创出历史新高。 与此同时，避险需求还受到地缘政治因素的支撑。中东局势持续紧张、亚洲部分地区出现货币波动，加上全球债务水平高企，使得黄金成为全球资本 的"安全港"。数据显示，央行层面的黄金购买也在持续增加，多个新兴市场国家正将储备从美元资产逐步转向实物黄金，以分散风险。 白银也在这一轮行情中表现不俗。受黄金联动影响，白银价格连续上涨，投资者重新关注其工业与储值双重属性。在金银比接近70的情况下，部分分析师 认为白银未来仍有补涨空间。 本文转载自"Wind万得"，智通财经编辑：刘家殷。 此外，美元也受到冲击。政府停摆削弱了投资者对美国财政稳健性的信心，美元指数短线承压。与此相对，黄金在全球主要货币中表现突出，不仅在美元 计价下走强，在欧元、日元和英镑计价下同样创下阶段性高点。这种跨币种强势反映出黄金的全球避险地位进一步巩固。 第二个推动因素来自美联储政策转向。尽管2025年上半年美联储仍保持"鹰派"立场，但到了秋季，局势发生了显著变化。9月，美联储正式宣布降息， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold surpassing $4000 per ounce and London spot gold reaching $3974 per ounce, indicating a "bullish frenzy" in the market [2][3] Group 2 - A significant factor influencing gold prices is the U.S. government shutdown, which has led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This political deadlock has caused investors to increase their holdings in physical gold and gold ETFs to hedge against potential market volatility [5] - The U.S. dollar has faced pressure due to the government shutdown, which has weakened investor confidence in U.S. fiscal stability. Consequently, gold has performed well against major currencies, reinforcing its global safe-haven status [5] Group 3 - Another driving factor is the shift in Federal Reserve policy. The Fed's announcement of interest rate cuts marks the end of a two-year tightening cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October exceeding 80%. This change in interest rate expectations has a strong positive impact on gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [6] - The government shutdown has also disrupted the release of key economic data, leaving the Fed without crucial economic indicators, which may lead to a more cautious approach in monetary policy [6] Group 4 - Geopolitical factors are also supporting safe-haven demand for gold, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and currency fluctuations in parts of Asia. Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold to diversify their reserves away from U.S. dollar assets [7] - Silver has also seen a price increase, influenced by gold's performance, with analysts suggesting that silver may have further upside potential given its dual role as an industrial and store of value asset [7]

The so-called debasement trade — embraced by individual investors since late 2024 as a hedge to a weaker dollar — could accelerate from here. ...