重要数据披露！ 4月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了4月份中国采购经理指数。其中，制造业采购 经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点。 分析认为，4月份外贸环境的变化给我国制造业带来一定的扰动，市场需求和企业生产短期有所放缓，原材料采购、 市场价格等方面也有所波动，但国内需求稳定释放，缓解了出口订单下行的压力，新动能和消费品生产继续稳中有 增。 新出口订单指数环比走低 4月份，制造业PMI比上月下降1.5个百分点，至49.0%，降至临界点以下。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，这是受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变 化等因素影响。 从13个分项指数来看，同上月相比，生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数积压订单指数、产成品库存指数、采 购量指数、进口指数、购进价格指数、出厂价格指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数、供应商配送时间指数和生 产经营活动预期指数均下降，指数降幅在0.1至5.5个百分点之间。 中国人民大学统计学院教授、中国调查与数据中心副主任吴翌琳对记者表示，4月中国制造业PMI景气度环比走低主 要是受外需收缩和政策效应递 ...

4月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了4月份中国采购经理指数。 其中，制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点。分析认为，4月份外贸环境的变化给我国制造业带来一定的扰动，市场需求和企业 生产短期有所放缓，原材料采购、市场价格等方面也有所波动，但国内需求稳定释放，缓解了出口订单下行的压力，新动能和消费品生产继续稳中有增。 新出口订单指数环比走低 4月份，制造业PMI比上月下降1.5个百分点，至49.0%，降至临界点以下。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，这是受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响。 从13个分项指数来看，同上月相比，生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数、积压订单指数、产成品库存指数、采购量指数、进口指数、购进价格指数、出厂价 格指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数、供应商配送时间指数和生产经营活动预期指数均下降，指数降幅在0.1至5.5个百分点之间。 中国人民大学统计学院教授，中国调查与数据中心副主任吴翌琳对记者表示，4月中国制造业PMI景气度环比走低主要是受外需收缩和政策效应递减以及大宗商品价 格波动 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, indicating continued expansion in this sector [5] - The new orders index for consumer goods manufacturing was at the critical point of 50%, suggesting a good release of domestic market demand [5] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for April was 52.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, reflecting strong confidence among enterprises regarding market development [5] - Industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace showed high expectation indices of 58% and above, indicating robust business activity [7] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [8] - The service sector, particularly tourism and information services, showed positive performance, contributing to the overall growth in non-manufacturing activities [8][9] Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction business activity index was reported at 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, yet still indicating expansion [9] - With the arrival of the construction peak season, civil engineering investment is accelerating, highlighting the role of investment in driving economic growth [10]

制造业PMI有所回落 4月制造业PMI比3月下降1.5个百分点，分项数据显示，制造业市场需求有所放缓。4月，新出口订单指 数为44.7%，较3月下降4.3个百分点；新订单指数为49.2%，较3月下降2.6个百分点。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，国外需求短期收紧拖累了我国制造业整体市场需求。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，从全球范围看，受贸易环境不确定性增大影响，主 要经济体制造业景气度普遍位于收缩区间，美国供应管理协会发布的3月份美国制造业PMI为49.0%，有 关机构发布的4月份欧元区、英国、日本制造业PMI初值均低于临界点。 制造业PMI中生产指数和价格指数也有所下降。4月，制造业生产指数为49.8%，比3月下降2.8个百分 点。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，比3月下降2.8和3.1个百分点，制 造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。 "制造业价格指数有所下降，主要受到市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响。"赵 庆河表示。 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会4月30日发布数据显示，4月，制造业PMI为49%， 比3月下降1.5个百 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - All 13 sub-indices related to manufacturing showed a decline, with the production index, new orders index, and new export orders index experiencing significant drops, reflecting a contraction in demand [2][4] - The overall economic output remains stable, with the composite PMI output index at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite the decline in manufacturing PMI [1][4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][8] - Key indices in the non-manufacturing sector, such as new orders and new export orders, also saw declines, but the construction and service industries showed resilience, particularly in tourism and entertainment [6][8] - The business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for seven consecutive months, indicating a stable optimistic outlook among enterprises for future market conditions [8] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Analysts emphasize the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased government investment in public goods to stimulate market demand and improve employment and income levels [5] - The overall economic environment is influenced by external uncertainties, including trade tensions, which necessitate a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1][4] - The second quarter is expected to see stable performance in the non-manufacturing sector, supported by the release of economic stabilization policies [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply, steadily increasing demand, and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,430 yuan/ton, up 480 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,752 dollars/ton, up 42 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 198,319 lots, down 5,412 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 7,218 lots, up 534 lots [2]. - LME copper inventory was 211,375 tons, down 1,550 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory was 235,296 tons, down 21,032 tons; SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipts were 136,003 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 80,015 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,015 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 66 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 415 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 71 dollars/ton, down 16.5 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 218.25 million tons, down 34.88 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 24.14 dollars/kiloton, down 1.26 dollars/kiloton [2]. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,270 yuan/metal ton, up 30 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 70,970 yuan/metal ton, up 30 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.242 billion tons, up 0.109 billion tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 420,000 tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons [2]. - The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 57,590 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,650 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2728 billion tons, up 0.1323 billion tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 43.62 billion yuan, down 564.638 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 1,071.974 billion yuan, down 8,956.048 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,277,402,800 pieces, up 521,990,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 13.82%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 12.13%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 14.41%, down 0.0032%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.06, up 0.0652 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In March, affected by the fading of the Spring Festival factor, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4% respectively, up 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's economy generally maintained an expansion [2]. - Fed's Williams said that the full impact of tariffs may gradually emerge over a long period, and it is necessary to focus on data to measure the impact of tariffs. Fed's Barkin said he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. ECB President Lagarde said that US tariff policies would push Europe towards "economic independence", and the ECB estimated that US tariff policies might cause the eurozone GDP to decline by 0.3% in the first year [2]. - IMF President Georgieva said that the global economic outlook might be slightly revised downward, but there were no signs of recession. From January to March, the total sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises were 810.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. In March, the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises decreased by 10.6% year - on - year [2].