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基本面高频数据跟踪:乘用车零售回升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-06-09 07:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GSSC Fundamental High - Frequency Index remained stable this week, with an increase of 0.1 points week - on - week and 5.0 points year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds was long, with a signal factor of 5.4% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase, while tire开工率 declined [1][9][16]. - In total demand, the decline in the real - estate sales high - frequency index narrowed year - on - year; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase; the year - on - year increase in the export high - frequency index narrowed; and the consumer high - frequency index maintained a stable year - on - year increase [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast remained at - 0.1%, and the month - on - month PPI forecast improved from - 0.2% to - 0.1% [1][10]. - The inventory high - frequency index showed a narrowing year - on - year increase; the transportation high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase; the financing high - frequency index showed an expanding year - on - year increase [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remained Stable - The current GSSC Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 126.0 points (previous value: 125.9 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points (previous value: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds was long, with a signal factor of 5.4% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Tire开工率 Declined - The industrial production high - frequency index was 125.5 (previous value: 125.4), with a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points (previous value: 4.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Electric furnace开工率 was 64.7% (previous value: 65.4%); polyester开工率 was 88.9% (previous value: 90.9%); semi - tire开工率 was 73.9% (previous value: 78.3%); full - tire开工率 was 63.5% (previous value: 64.8%); PTA开工率 was 78.6% (previous value: 77.6%); PX开工率 was 84.6% (previous value: 80.6%); and the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port was 47.6 tons (previous value: 47.3 tons) [1][9][16]. 3.3 Real - Estate Sales: New Home Sales Were Continuously Negative Year - on - Year - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 21.0 million square meters (previous value: 31.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 3.7% (previous value: 10.0%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt开工率 Rebounded - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index was 118.1 (previous value: 117.9), with a year - on - year increase of 1.6 points (previous value: 1.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The开工率 of asphalt plants was 31.3% (previous value: 27.7%) [1][9][38]. 3.5 Exports: Container Freight Index for Exports Continued to Rise - The CCFI index was 1155 points (previous value: 1118 points); the export price index of Yiwu small commodities was 104 points (previous value: 108 points); the RJ/CRB index was 297.6 points (previous value: 292.3 points) [45]. 3.6 Consumption: Retail and Wholesale of Passenger Cars by Manufacturers Increased - The retail volume of passenger cars by manufacturers was 95,364 units (previous value: 60,823 units); the wholesale volume of passenger cars by manufacturers was 156,618 units (previous value: 75,923 units); the average daily box office was 82.57 million yuan (previous value: 34.35 million yuan) [57]. 3.7 CPI: Pork Prices Continued to Fall - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.7 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.3 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens was 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.4 yuan/kg) [66]. 3.8 PPI: Rebar Prices Continued to Fall, Copper Prices Continued to Rise - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port was 609 yuan/ton (previous value: 611 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 65 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 64 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper was 9720 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9650 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was 2455 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2466 US dollars/ton) [72]. 3.9 Transportation: Passenger Traffic Declined - The passenger traffic of the subway in first - tier cities was 36.66 million person - times (previous value: 39.01 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index was 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points) [82]. 3.10 Inventory: Aluminum Inventory Continued to Rise - The aluminum inventory was 165,000 tons (previous value: 138,000 tons); the soda ash inventory was 1.627 million tons (previous value: 1.613 million tons) [88]. 3.11 Financing: Local Government Bonds Declined, Credit Bonds Rebounded - The net financing of local government bonds was 5.05 billion yuan (previous value: 13.74 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds was 12.46 billion yuan (previous value: 5.12 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate was 1.08% (previous value: 1.10%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate was - 0.73% (previous value: - 0.73%) [99].
这一涨幅创近十年新高!重磅数据出炉,最新解读来了
券商中国· 2025-06-09 06:51
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the impact of energy prices on CPI and the structural changes in supply and demand across various industries [1][4][5]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from previous increases [1][4]. - Energy prices significantly influenced the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI's decrease [4]. - The core CPI showed signs of recovery, indicating a gradual improvement in consumer demand due to supportive consumption policies [5][6]. PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][8]. - Factors contributing to the PPI decline include international input factors and a decrease in domestic energy and raw material prices [9]. - Certain sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing and new energy industries, showed signs of improved supply-demand relationships, with some prices stabilizing or recovering [10]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the PPI to remain in a bottoming phase for an extended period, while the CPI is projected to maintain low levels [12]. - The anticipated stabilization of international oil prices may reduce the downward pressure on CPI, although fluctuations in pork prices could introduce new challenges [13].
6月9日午间新闻精选
news flash· 2025-06-09 04:13
Group 1 - In the first five months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year [1] - In May, the import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, growing by 2.7% [1] - In May, China's exports amounted to 2.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - In May, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in May dropped by 3.3% year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Legislative Council's Committee on Home Affairs and Culture is set to hold a meeting to discuss proposals for regulating basketball betting [3] Group 4 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.23%, briefly returning to 3,400 points [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.62%, while the ChiNext Index grew by 1.22% [4] - The Hang Seng Index climbed by 1.01%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 2.30% [4]
刚刚,重磅数据发布!
天天基金网· 2025-06-09 03:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a slight decline in CPI and a continued low level of PPI, while noting improvements in certain sectors due to policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [1][5]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][4]. - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decrease [3]. - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetable supply increasing, leading to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices [3][4]. - Accommodation and tourism prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [3]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [1][5]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by international factors, including a 5.6% drop in prices in the oil and gas extraction industry, which contributed significantly to the overall decrease [6][7]. - Despite the overall decline, some sectors showed positive price movements, particularly in consumer goods, driven by effective consumption-boosting policies [7][8]. - High-end manufacturing and technology sectors experienced price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and aircraft manufacturing prices rising by 3.6% [8].
能源价格拖累5月CPI同比下降0.1%,但核心CPI涨幅略有扩大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 02:15
Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In May, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline remaining consistent compared to April [1] - The main factor contributing to the CPI decline was a 6.1% year-on-year drop in energy prices, which impacted the CPI by approximately 0.47 percentage points [1] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with significant declines in fresh vegetable prices (down 8.3%) and a smaller increase in pork prices (up 3.1%) [1] Group 2: Core CPI and Future Outlook - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, reflecting a slight improvement compared to the previous month [3] - Future price trends may be supported by consumption-boosting policies, although potential negative impacts from the US-China tariff situation and "export to domestic" pressures should be monitored [3] - There is a possibility that the CPI may remain in negative territory in June, with macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing price levels in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the drop widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to April [1] - Some industries are experiencing improved supply-demand relationships, leading to price recoveries in certain sectors, particularly in consumer goods [4] - The future trajectory of industrial prices will largely depend on the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies, especially those supporting the real estate sector [4]
国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年5月份CPI和PPI数据
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-06-09 01:44
Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2][3] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decline in CPI [2] - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetables seeing a 5.9% price drop, while prices for eggs, pork, and poultry slightly decreased by 0.3% to 1.0% [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4][5] - The month-on-month PPI decline was influenced by international factors, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices and a 3.5% decrease in refined oil product manufacturing prices [4] - Some sectors showed marginal price improvements, with consumer demand policies positively impacting prices in certain industries, such as a 12.8% increase in the price of arts and crafts and a 0.8% rise in footwear manufacturing [5]
国家统计局:PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点 部分行业供需关系有所改善
news flash· 2025-06-09 01:38
金十数据6月9日讯,叠加上年同期对比基数走高等因素影响,PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。但 从边际变化看,我国宏观政策加力实施,部分行业供需关系有所改善,一些领域价格呈向好态势。消费 新动能不断壮大带动生活资料等价格同比回升。提振消费相关政策持续显效,部分消费品需求释放带动 相关行业价格回升。生活资料价格环比由上月下降0.2%转为持平。高端装备制造等产业发展带动相关 行业价格同比上涨。产业发展高端化、智能化、绿色化转型稳步推进,高技术产品需求扩大,相关行业 价格同比上涨。 国家统计局:PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点 部分行业供需关系有所改善 ...
国家统计局:5月份CPI略有下降,核心CPI同比涨幅扩大
news flash· 2025-06-09 01:35
Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year in May, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.6% year-on-year, an expansion of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][2][3] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decline [2][3] - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetables seeing a 5.9% price drop, while hotel accommodation and tourism prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4][5] - The month-on-month PPI decline was influenced by international factors, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices, which contributed significantly to the overall decline [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, some sectors showed positive price movements, with consumer goods prices stabilizing and certain industries, such as high-end equipment manufacturing, experiencing price increases due to improved demand [5]
国家统计局:5月PPI环比下降0.4% 同比下降3.3%
news flash· 2025-06-09 01:34
Core Viewpoint - In May, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in China decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: PPI Changes - The month-on-month decline in PPI was primarily influenced by international input factors leading to price decreases in related domestic industries [1] - The price of crude oil fell, impacting domestic oil-related industries, with prices in the oil and gas extraction sector down by 5.6%, refined petroleum product manufacturing down by 3.5%, and chemical raw materials and products manufacturing down by 1.2% [1] - These three sectors collectively contributed approximately 0.23 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI decline, accounting for over 50% of the total decrease [1] Group 2: Domestic Price Influences - Domestic energy and raw material prices experienced a phase of decline, with coal mining and washing prices down by 3.0% due to seasonal demand factors and sufficient coal stockpiles [1] - The price of coal processing decreased by 1.1%, while black metal smelting and rolling industries, as well as non-metallic mineral products, saw a price drop of 1.0% due to ample supply of construction materials [1] - These four sectors together contributed approximately 0.18 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI decline [1]
今日看点|中国5月CPI、PPI数据将公布
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-06-09 00:40
Group 1 - China's CPI and PPI data for May 2025 will be released on June 9 [1] - China has implemented a visa exemption policy for citizens of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain, effective from June 9, 2025, to June 8, 2026, allowing stays of up to 30 days without a visa [2] - A total of 4.19 billion shares worth 17.922 billion yuan will be unlocked today from 13 companies, with significant unlocks from Zeyu Intelligent, Yueneng Technology, and Huahai Qingke [3] - Three companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with two companies completing repurchases exceeding 10 million yuan [4] - Upcoming data releases include the U.S. wholesale inventory month-on-month rate and Singapore's May foreign exchange reserves [5]