1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.11%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan [3] - **Funding Market**: On Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42% (1.47% the previous day) [3] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.77 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year fell 0.04 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year rose 0.26 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year rose 0.30 BP to 1.85% [3] - **International Trade**: On July 3, the US government allowed General Electric Aerospace to resume supplying jet engines to Comac. The US also lifted export restrictions on Chinese companies by chip design software developers and ethane producers this week. The US President signed 12 trade letters and plans to send them on Monday. Talks with the EU on trade are progressing, and major news may be announced in the next two days [3] - **Domestic Policy**: Since July 5, 2025, anti - dumping duties have been imposed on imported brandy from the EU. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and called on local governments to implement policies according to local conditions [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but it may take a long time for the effects to show. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [4] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]

Group 1 - The Central Financial Committee held its sixth meeting on July 1, emphasizing the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on key challenges, regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guiding companies to enhance product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The steel industry, as a significant midstream processing sector, is heavily influenced by downstream demand from real estate, leading to prominent supply-demand contradictions, continuous decline in steel prices, and intense low-price competition [1] - Since 2022, the industry's downturn has resulted in an increasing number of steel companies facing losses, with profit shrinkage and losses significantly reducing their capacity to upgrade products [1] Group 2 - With ongoing efforts to combat "involution," the supply-demand landscape for steel is expected to improve, and positive sentiment may drive a recovery in valuations [2] - The only ETF tracking the steel industry (515210) follows the CSI Steel Index, selecting listed companies involved in steel manufacturing, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the steel sector [2] - The constituent stocks cover both upstream and downstream enterprises in the steel industry chain, demonstrating significant industry concentration characteristics [2]

钢材周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 内外政策影响 钢价偏强反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫ 宏观面：中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推 进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 会议强调，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政 府采购和招标投标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化 发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动。美国总统特朗 普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征 收20%关税，任何转运货物将被征收40%的关税。另外， 越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量221万吨，环比 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reform aimed at the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a significant policy shift from self-regulation to higher-level government intervention [6][7] - The market is expected to experience a "pulse-like" behavior due to unclear demand-side conditions, contrasting with the more robust demand seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [7][9] - There is a notable focus on the differentiation between "old industries" (e.g., steel, coal, cement) and "new industries" (e.g., new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic sectors), with a recommendation to prioritize sectors with external demand [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3472.32, reflecting a 0.32% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% [4] - The banking sector showed a strong performance with a 1.84% increase, while the beauty care sector declined by 1.87% [5] Industry Analysis - The report indicates a marginal recovery in production and demand expectations for June, with the PMI showing slight improvement, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial profits [9][10] - It highlights that the price pressures are expected to ease, and inventory levels are likely to remain resilient, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [9][10] - The report suggests that the profitability factors are anticipated to improve, with a focus on high profitability, small-cap, and high-valuation stocks expected to outperform in the coming month [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's new tax and spending legislation on both the U.S. economy and the global economic landscape, emphasizing a shift towards a "small government" approach that includes tax cuts and deregulation, which is expected to enhance productivity and economic growth in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy Changes - The new legislation includes tax reductions, spending cuts, increased military spending, and a rise in the deficit, which collectively aim to boost the U.S. economy [1] - The "small government" philosophy is expected to lower operational costs and improve efficiency within the U.S. economy, potentially increasing marginal labor productivity [1][3] - The ongoing trade conflicts and increased tariffs are anticipated to accelerate the U.S. capital expenditure cycle, as high tariffs may lead multinational companies to invest more in the U.S. market [2] Group 2: Global Economic Implications - The prolonged duration of high tariffs and trade conflicts is likely to further stimulate U.S. capital expenditure, prompting the government to endure and extend conflicts with trade partners [2] - Countries are currently reacting to the trade war initiated by the U.S., often in a defensive manner, which limits their ability to formulate strategic responses [2][3] - Nations, including China, need to prepare comprehensive strategies to counteract U.S. trade policies and avoid falling into a reactive trap [2] Group 3: Domestic Reforms in Response - In light of external uncertainties, domestic reforms in China are accelerating, focusing on building a unified national market and addressing issues like low-price competition [3] - The orderly exit of outdated production capacity and market reforms are expected to enhance China's core competitiveness and reshape its economic framework [3] - A well-matched relationship between limited government and effective markets could elevate China's economic activities and productivity, enabling it to better withstand external shocks [3]

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the importance of understanding and implementing the essence of Xi Jinping's important articles on deepening reforms and maintaining the "two unwavering" principles [1][2] - The city aims to create a leading advantage in key areas of reform and achieve nationally influential reform outcomes [1] Group 1: Urban Infrastructure and Services - The city will accelerate the integration reform of urban water supply, gas supply, and central heating to enhance supply capacity and safety [2] - There will be a focus on improving the rural comprehensive reform to increase collective income and promote modern agricultural development [2] Group 2: Market and Economic Development - The city plans to implement the basic requirements for building a unified national market, emphasizing cross-border e-commerce and deep integration with industrial chains [2] - Efforts will be made to enhance the business environment through comprehensive reforms, aiming for a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized top-tier business environment [2] Group 3: Health and Education - Continuous deepening of the healthcare system reform will be pursued to promote the coordinated development of medical services, insurance, and pharmaceuticals [2] - The city will advance the integration of education, technology, and talent mechanisms to foster high-level innovation for quality development [2]

报告导读： 中央财经委会议推进全国统一大市场建设，治理企业低价无序竞争，支持海洋 经济高质量发展，推动海上风电规范有序建设，推荐建筑板块龙头和海洋经济标的。 政策推进全国统一大市场建设，治理企业低价无序竞争。 (1)7月1日中央财经委召开第六次会议，强调纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品 质，推动落后产能有序退出。(2)当前国内基建市场较为饱和，存在部分低价竞争现象，政策支持治理低价 无须竞争提升产品品质，有利于建筑头部企业凭借技术优势提升利润空间，同时产业链受益也利好建筑板 块发展。 政策支持海洋经济高质量发展，推动海上风电规范有序建设。 (1)中央财经委会议指出，推动海洋经济高 质量发展，要加强顶层设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积极参与发展海洋经济。要做强做优 做大海洋产业，推动海上风电规范有序建设。(2)推荐世界最大港口设计及建设企业，布局新建深海原创技 术策源地。推荐具有新型岸桥等港口产品，海上风电业务包括风机塔筒的制造及安装等。推荐海上综合能 源一体化业务模式，建设运营海上风电等大数据平台。推荐加快构建海上风电、数字建造、新型储能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction materials sector, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [9][12]. Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown resilience, with a 3.50% increase in the sector index from June 30 to July 4, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.33% [12]. - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development is expected to positively impact demand for construction materials [2][12]. - The cement industry is experiencing a supply-side reform, with increased efforts to reduce overcapacity and stabilize prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the national cement price index is 350.38 CNY/ton, down 1.32% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.76 million tons, also down 1.67% [3][17]. - The construction sector remains a key demand driver for cement, but short-term growth is constrained by weather and funding issues [17]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline of 26.01% in cement output for housing construction, indicating a challenging market environment [6][17]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1201.02 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.13% from the previous week, while inventory levels have decreased slightly [33]. - Demand remains under pressure, and the report anticipates challenges in maintaining sales momentum due to high production capacity and ongoing order shortages [33][34]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is experiencing stable pricing, with no significant changes in supply or demand noted in the short term [7]. - The report indicates that demand for wind power fiberglass is relatively strong, providing some support to the market [7]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials [2][9]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market is seeing a gradual recovery in downstream demand, with production costs remaining high and profit margins under pressure [8].

Group 1 - The construction and decoration sector showed a weekly increase of 0.63%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.54%, resulting in a relative return of -0.91 percentage points [1] - The top three sub-industries with the highest weekly gains were infrastructure private enterprises (+3.19%), steel structure (+2.85%), and ecological landscaping (+2.46%), with corresponding companies: Chengbang Co. (+42.23%), Honglu Steel Structure (+7.53%), and Hangzhou Landscaping (+31.16%) [1] - The sub-industries with the largest annual gains were ecological landscaping (+21.25%), infrastructure private enterprises (+16.54%), and decorative curtain walls (+13.15%), with corresponding companies: Hangzhou Landscaping (+95.79%), Chengbang Co. (+147.23%), and ST Keli Da (+79.66%) [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points [2] - The construction business activity index stood at 52.8%, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [2] - China Railway and China Railway Construction both won contracts for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, with contract amounts of approximately RMB 53.43 billion and RMB 37.81 billion, respectively, representing 0.462% and 0.354% of their 2024 revenue [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the construction PMI has improved, indicating a potential recovery in the industry, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing product quality and regulating competition [3][11] - The report suggests that while the overall industry remains weak, regional investments may gain traction as national strategic layouts deepen, presenting opportunities for growth [3][11] Industry Performance - The construction sector saw a weekly increase of +0.63%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.40%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (+1.25%) [4][5] - The best-performing sub-industries for the week were infrastructure private enterprises (+3.19%), steel structures (+2.85%), and ecological landscaping (+2.46%) [5][9] - Year-to-date, the top three performing sub-industries are ecological landscaping (+21.25%), infrastructure private enterprises (+16.54%), and decorative curtain walls (+13.15%) [5][9] Key Company Developments - China Railway won a contract for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, with a total contract value of approximately RMB 5.343 billion, accounting for 0.462% of its 2024 revenue [13][14] - China Railway Construction also secured a contract for the same railway project, valued at approximately RMB 3.781 billion, representing 0.354% of its 2024 revenue [13][14] - Other notable companies include Sichuan Road and Bridge, which signed a contract worth approximately RMB 11.596 billion, accounting for 16.25% of its 2024 revenue [14][15] Stock Performance - The top five stocks by weekly increase were Chengbang Co. (+42.23%), Hangzhou Landscaping (+31.16%), Hopson Development (+21.35%), Hui Green Ecology (+15.65%), and New City (+10.98%) [9][10] - Conversely, the five stocks with the largest declines were Zhengping Co. (-18.28%), ST Yuancheng (-9.82%), ST Nongshang (-6.22%), Northern International (-5.71%), and Hanjia Design (-5.46%) [9][10] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [11][12] - The non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points, while the construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points [11][12]