导读：只有在规则逐步清晰、责任逐步明确的前提下，L3级自动驾驶才有可能从一项被寄予厚望的技 术升级，成长为推动中国汽车产业持续向前的重要支点。 （文 / 观察者网 周盛明 编辑 / 高莘） 日前，工业和信息化部批准了两款搭载L3级有条件自动驾驶功能的智能网联汽车产品的准入申请，这 也被视为中国自动驾驶从"测试"迈向"量产"的关键一步。 有分析机构表示，2026年中国L3车型的市场渗透率有望达到1%。也有分析师称，明年中国L3级自动驾 驶车型产量甚至可达百万量级。 在需求放缓、市场竞争加剧的背景下，L3是否能够成为智能电动车"下半场"的新催化剂，正成为外界共 同关注的问题。 中国电动汽车百人会副理事长兼秘书长、车百会理事长张永伟此前就表示："谁能够在智能化这个发展 阶段建立起优势，谁才能真正实现汽车产业的领先。智能化的标志就是智驾。" 继续推动产业高质量发展 或刺激新一轮汽车消费 目前，全球研究机构对于自动驾驶技术刺激中国汽车消费的潜力均保持乐观。 张永伟此前就表示："2026年L3及以上自动驾驶乘用车新车渗透率将实现突破，到2030年有望达到 10%。" 而日本第二大证券公司大和证券（Daiwa Securi ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive atmosphere before Christmas, with all three major indices rising. The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.17% to close at 25,818.93 points, with a total turnover of HKD 92.524 billion [1] - CITIC Securities noted that after a one-sided rise in September, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a period of adjustment in October due to fluctuating overseas macro expectations. Currently, high-quality assets in the Hong Kong market are entering a high cost-performance ratio zone, supported by continuous capital inflow and improved profit expectations [1] Blue Chip Performance - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 3.12% to HKD 71.05, contributing 15.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. Reports indicate that SMIC has implemented a price increase of approximately 10% on some production capacities [2][4] - Other notable blue-chip performances included China Hongqiao (01378) up 2.34%, and CK Infrastructure (01038) up 1.83%. However, Haier Smart Home (06690) and Alibaba Health (00241) saw declines of 2.32% and 1.53%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - The semiconductor sector saw most stocks rise, with SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor (01347) also showing gains. The price increase by SMIC is attributed to rising raw material costs and strong demand driven by mobile applications and AI [3][4] - Nickel stocks were active, with Likin Resources (02245) rising by 11.44% and Xinjiang Xinmin Mining (03833) up 7.42%. This activity is linked to Indonesia's reduction in nickel production targets to stabilize prices [5] - Dairy stocks rose following the announcement of temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy imports, benefiting domestic producers like Yurun Dairy (09858) and Modern Dairy (01117) [6] Notable Stock Movements - Baidu's stock (02315) surged by 22.23% after being added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, indicating strong market interest [7] - Robotics company Yujian (02432) rebounded by 9.41% following the release of its new AI-powered household robot, Rover X1 [8] - Zai Lab (09688) saw a 6.24% increase after receiving approval for a new schizophrenia treatment, marking a significant breakthrough in the field [9] - CGN Mining (01164) continued its upward trend, rising by 5.02%, supported by forecasts of rising uranium prices [10]

Core Viewpoint - Sterling Anderson, a technology expert in robotics and autonomous driving, has quickly become a focal point within General Motors (GM) and the capital markets since joining the company this summer, especially as CEO Mary Barra approaches her tenth year in leadership [1][3]. Group 1: Leadership and Succession - Anderson is viewed by some board members and investors as a potential "dark horse successor" to CEO Mary Barra [3]. - His rise reflects GM's current challenges in the face of intensified competition in electrification and automation, particularly from Tesla and Waymo in the U.S. and Chinese companies in other markets [3][4]. - Anderson's background includes working with Elon Musk at Tesla and co-founding Aurora Innovation, a self-driving truck company valued at approximately $8 billion [4]. Group 2: Strategic Direction - Anderson's appointment comes after a period of instability in GM's leadership, with several potential CEO candidates leaving the company [4]. - He has taken on significant responsibilities, overseeing the integration of artificial intelligence and software systems into GM's vehicle and business frameworks, making him one of the few executives at GM to control the core direction of "hardware-software integration" [3][4]. - The company is at a critical juncture, needing to define whether it will transition into a technology company or maintain its focus on traditional large fuel vehicles [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Controversies - Since Anderson's arrival, GM has seen multiple senior technical executives depart, raising concerns about his management style and the direction of the company [7][8]. - Anderson's new technology strategy aims to launch a production model capable of "driving without line of sight" by 2028, initially applied to Cadillac electric SUVs, while also focusing on cost-effective batteries and AI technology [7]. - Internally, opinions on Anderson are mixed; some welcome his leadership, while others question his decisions regarding personnel and performance management [8].

Group 1 - The company is offering a discount of 7.5% on all self-driving courses, excluding mass production courses [1] - New members joining the knowledge community can enjoy a 60% discount, while existing members can renew at a 50% discount [3] - Starting from the beginning of the promotional event, customers who spend over 4000 on self-driving courses will receive a high-quality self-driving course for free [1] Group 2 - The company provides 1-on-1 job coaching services, currently available at a promotional price [1]

Core Insights - NVIDIA has become a focal point in the AI landscape, achieving a market valuation of $5 trillion, an elevenfold increase over three years, marking it as the first company to reach this milestone [2] - The company has transitioned from a graphics chip manufacturer to a leading AI infrastructure provider, with significant advancements in various AI domains, including autonomous driving and embodied intelligence [2] Group 1: Technological Developments - The Cosmos series, initiated in January, has produced foundational models like Cosmos-Transfer1, Cosmos-Reason1, and Cosmos-Predict2.5, which support downstream applications in autonomous driving and embodied intelligence [5] - The Nemotron series aims to create a "digital brain" for the agent-based AI era, providing efficient models and tools for enterprises to build specialized AI systems [5] - The Isaac Lab project offers a GPU-accelerated simulation framework for multi-modal robot learning, addressing challenges in data scarcity and the simulation-to-reality gap [6] Group 2: Key Projects and Papers - The Nemotron Nano V2 VL model, a 12 billion parameter visual language model, achieves state-of-the-art performance in document understanding and long video reasoning tasks while maintaining text reasoning capabilities [12] - The Alpamayo-R1 project introduces a visual-language-action model that integrates causal reasoning and trajectory planning to enhance decision-making in complex driving scenarios [13] - The Cosmos-Predict2.5 model unifies text, image, and video generation capabilities, significantly improving video quality and consistency for physical AI tasks [17] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The Nemotron Nano V2 VL model has shown superior performance across 45 multi-modal benchmark tests, particularly in document understanding and long video question-answering tasks [12] - The Alpamayo-R1 model demonstrated a 12% increase in planning accuracy and a 35% reduction in derailment rates in challenging scenarios compared to baseline models [16] - The Cosmos-Reason1 model has achieved over a 10% performance improvement in physical reasoning tasks after fine-tuning, showcasing its capability in understanding physical laws [33]

Section 1: Overnight Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.79% to $58.47 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.62% to $61.96 per barrel [5] - Most London base metals rose, with LME nickel up 2.38% at $15,640.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.09% at $12,055.00 per ton, etc [5] - As of 23:00, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with caustic soda up over 2%, PX up over 1%, etc; some contracts like butadiene rubber fell [6] - As of 1:00, Shanghai copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. main contracts had different changes, with Shanghai nickel up 2.52% and Shanghai tin down 1.63% [6] - As of 2:30, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts rose [7] Section 2: Important News Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation, aiming for a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts by 2030 [9] - The US economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years in Q3, with real GDP annualized quarterly rate at 4.3% [9] - Investors reduced bets on the Fed's rate cut next year, with the probability of a rate cut in the January 28 meeting at about 17% [10] - US Treasury Secretary Baysent supported re - considering the Fed's 2% inflation target, with possible adjusted ranges [11] - US President Trump commented on Q3 GDP data and criticized the market's reaction to good news [11] - The US has dispatched a large number of special - operations aircraft and transport planes to the Caribbean [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - ANRPC predicted a 2.6% drop in global natural rubber production to 1.474 million tons in November 2025 and a 1.4% drop in consumption to 1.248 million tons [14] - US API crude oil inventory increased by 2.391 million barrels in the week ending December 19 [15] Metal Futures - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of high volatility in precious metals prices and urged risk prevention [17] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees, price limits, and margin standards for some contracts and restricted daily opening positions for polysilicon futures [18] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Branch issued an initiative due to high costs for SMEs [19] - Gold jewelry prices in China rose, and the water - shell market no longer distinguished between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" [19] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch reported the November 2025 lithium industry situation [19] - Indonesia's environment ministry shut down 5 mines in West Sumatra [20] Black - Series Futures - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference planned to stabilize the real estate market in 2026 [22] - Global crude steel production in November 2025 was 140.1 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year decrease [22] - As of mid - December, steel social inventory decreased by 5.9% month - on - month [24] - China's 47 - port imported iron ore inventory increased by 3.4349 million tons [24] - Australian and Brazilian major port iron ore inventory rose slightly [24] Agricultural Product Futures - Shanghai will include pig income insurance in the municipal financial agricultural insurance premium subsidy program [26] - US soybean export net sales in the week ending December 11 were 2.396 million tons [26] - Indonesia planned to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% in 2026 [27] - The US agreed to exempt tariffs on some Indonesian products [28] - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026 [28] - Domestic soybean meal inventory increased, and the de - stocking trend may not continue [28] Section 3: Financial Markets Financial - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.27%, etc [30] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.11%, and some stocks had different performances [30] - Newly - issued equity funds' scale exceeded 400 billion shares this year [30] - Public fund institutions discussed 2026 investment opportunities, and the market may have dual - driven growth [32] - Analysts expected a "spring rally" in the stock market [32] - Blue Arrow Aerospace completed its IPO guidance for the Science and Technology Innovation Board [32] Industry - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference deployed 2026 real estate tasks [33] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration promoted solar thermal power generation development [34] - China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure increased by 52% year - on - year as of November [34] - The National Cultural Heritage Administration investigated the Nanjing Museum's cultural relic management issue [36] - New regulations for food live - streaming e - commerce are to be announced [36] - The Long March 12A rocket completed its maiden flight [36] - Beijing issued the first L3 - level highway autonomous driving vehicle license plates [36] - The "Guangdong cars enter Hong Kong" policy was implemented [36] Overseas - US President Trump hoped the next Fed chair would cut rates during good economic times [37] - Hassert, a potential Fed chair candidate, thought the US was behind in rate - cutting [39] - The US Q3 real GDP increased by 4.3% quarter - on - quarter [39] - The US December consumer confidence index declined [39] - The US government suspended some offshore wind power projects [39] - A radioactive water leak occurred during the decommissioning of a reactor in Japan [40] - The Italian Senate passed the 2026 budget with a controversial gold reserve clause [40] International Stock Markets - US major stock indexes rose for four consecutive days, and most Chinese concept stocks fell [41] - European major stock indexes had mixed results [43] - US retail investors' investment in the stock market increased significantly in 2025 [43] Commodities - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for some metal futures [44] - Domestic gold jewelry prices exceeded 1,400 yuan per gram [44] - The water - shell market adjusted its gold pricing system [44] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Branch warned of irrational tin price increases [46] - US and Brent crude oil prices rose due to supply concerns [46] - London base metals mostly rose [46] Bonds - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct central treasury cash deposits on December 26 [47] - China's bond market strengthened, with some bond futures rising and yields falling [47] - US corporate bond issuance neared a record due to the "AI bond issuance wave" [47] - US Treasury yields had different changes [48][49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the dollar index fell [50]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's market capitalization has reached $1.63 trillion, driven by multiple positive factors including the reinstatement of Elon Musk's compensation plan and the expansion of Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 22, Tesla's stock price rose by 3.66% to $498.82 per share, nearing the $500 mark, before closing at $488.73, reflecting a month-to-date increase of nearly 15% [1]. - Analysts' optimistic forecasts and the recent developments regarding Musk's compensation have contributed to the stock's upward momentum [1][2]. Group 2: Musk's Compensation Plan - The Delaware Supreme Court ruled that Musk's original $56 billion compensation plan must be reinstated, overturning a lower court's decision [2]. - The value of Musk's compensation plan has increased to approximately $140 billion, reflecting investor confidence in Tesla's future [2]. - A new compensation plan, approved by over 75% of shareholders, could be worth up to $1 trillion, although it includes challenging performance targets [2]. Group 3: FSD Expansion - Tesla announced the latest version of its "FSD Supervised" feature, which allows vehicles to autonomously navigate to destinations and park themselves [4]. - Musk indicated that this feature could be available in the UAE as early as next month, with the region serving as a potential model for broader adoption [4]. - The recent power outage in San Francisco did not affect Tesla vehicles using the FSD system, highlighting its reliability compared to competitors [4]. Group 4: Robotaxi Developments - Tesla is currently piloting a Robotaxi service in Austin without a safety driver, with Musk confirming ongoing tests [5]. - Analysts predict that Tesla will capture approximately 70% of the global autonomous driving market by 2026, with autonomous driving and robotics becoming core focus areas for the company [5].

研 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期三 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 究 报 告 美国第三季度 GDP 年化季率 4.3% 美国劳动力市场复苏 ADP 周均新增 1.15 万人 美国拟 2027 年对中国半导体产品征关税 欧洲 11 月汽车销量实现五连增 波罗的海干散货运价指数跌至五个月低点 两部门加码光热发电，明确 2030 年装机 1500 万千瓦 北京发放国内首批 L3 级高速自动驾驶专用号牌 三亚免税店销售额连续 5 日破亿元 英伟达计划春节前对华交付 H200 芯片 中芯国际部分产能涨价 10% 2 年期美债收益率涨 3.18 个基点报 3.532% 5 年期美债收益率涨 2.65 个基点报 3.734% 10 年期美债收益率涨 0.40 个基点报 4.165% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 197 ...

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core responsibilities and enhancing competitiveness within state-owned enterprises as highlighted by President Xi Jinping [5][8] - The macroeconomic strategy indicates a shift towards quality and sustainability, with a focus on technology and industry [9][11] - The automotive industry shows strong growth, with significant increases in production and sales, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [14][16] - The semiconductor industry remains in an upward cycle, driven by AI demand and increasing capital expenditures from major tech firms [28][29] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a rebound, particularly in prepared foods and alcoholic beverages, although overall performance remains weak [25][26] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown slight upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,919.98, reflecting a 0.07% increase [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 16.09 and 49.27 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][12] Industry Analysis - The automotive sector is witnessing a significant increase in production and sales, with November figures showing a production of 3.53 million vehicles and sales of 3.43 million vehicles, marking a month-on-month increase [14][15] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.16% in November, with production and sales of 1.88 million and 1.82 million units respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 20% [16] - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow, with global sales expected to increase by 11.2% in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure [28][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "stronger than market" rating for the automotive sector, particularly for companies with innovative driving technologies and those in the brand ascension cycle [17] - In the semiconductor sector, investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in AI chip production and those with integrated supply chain advantages [29][33] - The food and beverage sector is recommended for investment in prepared foods, soft drinks, and health products, as these areas show potential for growth despite overall market challenges [25][26]

Core Insights - The transition from L2 to L3 represents a critical leap from driver assistance to autonomous driving, with responsibility potentially shared among drivers, manufacturers, and autonomous system suppliers [2] Investment Summary - The first L3-level vehicles have been approved for road use, marking a significant milestone in China's autonomous driving industry, transitioning from laboratory testing to legitimate road applications [3] - The approval establishes a clear safety baseline by allowing conditional and limited scenarios for testing, promoting innovation while ensuring safety [3] - The high reliability and safety redundancy requirements of L3 systems will drive technological upgrades across the entire supply chain, including perception hardware, computing platforms, and software algorithms [3] Future Outlook - Pilot programs are expected to expand from current highway and congested scenarios to more complex urban roads, with legal and technical standards evolving based on pilot experiences to support broader adoption [3] - The high costs associated with vehicles equipped with advanced autonomous driving features need to decrease through technological advancements and economies of scale for widespread consumer adoption [3][4] Investment Strategy and Focus - The automotive sector should focus on undervalued leading manufacturers and component suppliers benefiting from performance improvements, particularly in the fields of new energy and intelligent vehicles [5] - Recommended companies include early movers in the new energy sector such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Geely, and Li Auto; stable low-valuation component leaders like Huayu Automotive and Fuyao Glass; and key players in electrification and intelligence like Desay SV, Ruikeda, and Kobot [5] - The strategy also highlights opportunities arising from domestic substitution due to the "domestic circulation" initiative, with companies like Lingdian Electric Control and Sanhua Intelligent Control being of interest [5] Key Focus Companies - The investment focus for the week includes BYD, Li Auto, Top Group, Desay SV, and Shangsheng Electronics [6]