特朗普强行掀了桌子，美巨头出手，把桌子摆正了！日前，美国三家零售巨头放出重量级信号，发生了什么事呢？ 日前，美国以沃尔玛为代表的零售巨头已经向中国供应商发出通知，要求恢复因中美关税战而暂停的货物运输，并明确表示对华关税将全由美国人买单。此 事的发生，标志着以沃尔玛为代表的美国零售巨头正式放弃挣扎，不再陪美国总统特朗普的关税政策玩命了！此事的发生，表明特朗普对华挑起关税战争， 再失一城。为什么它们都不支持特朗普呢？ 其实像沃尔玛这类零售巨头，最大的优势，不在于营销，不在于装修，也不在于科技和制造业企业才重视的核心技术等，而是在于对供应链的管控。只有建 立起足够完善的供应链，才可以确保它们能够以最低的成本在最快的时间内拿到最多品类的商品，只要做到这个份上，它们货架上的商品才足够多，而且在 定价较低的情况下，依然确保足够的利益，这就是零售巨头的经营逻辑。 正因如此，特朗普对华挑起关税战争的行径，简直等同于在这些零售巨头大动脉上划了一刀，给它们放血。作为全球最大的制造业国家，中国出口的商品， 很多就是供应到这些零售商身上，现在特朗普对中国商品加征那么多关税，直接威胁到的就是这些零售商的供应链。商品不会从货架上自己长出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly the tariffs imposed on Boeing aircraft, have led to significant disruptions in Boeing's operations, with Chinese customers halting aircraft deliveries and increasing uncertainty surrounding future orders [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Boeing's CEO confirmed that due to the tariff environment, Chinese customers have stopped accepting aircraft deliveries, leading to three Boeing aircraft being rejected and returned to the U.S. [1] - The new tariff adjustments impose a 125% tariff on U.S.-made aircraft and parts, significantly increasing procurement costs for Boeing aircraft, which could double the price for airlines [3]. - The market price for a new Boeing 737 Max, originally around $55 million, becomes unaffordable for airlines after the tariff increase [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In response to Boeing's quality issues, Chinese airlines have increased their procurement of Airbus aircraft, while the domestically produced C919 has gained traction, with a 60% localization rate and already in commercial operation [3]. - Indian and Malaysian airlines are looking to capitalize on Boeing's situation by negotiating for aircraft originally intended for Chinese customers, although their markets are significantly smaller than China's [4]. - The annual delivery of Boeing aircraft to China accounted for 25% of its total deliveries before the tariff conflict, highlighting the scale of the loss [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies pose a long-term risk to Boeing's recovery, as the company may struggle to regain its market position if China fully shifts to Airbus or domestic aircraft [7]. - The situation reflects a broader trend where U.S. companies are directly affected by geopolitical strategies, indicating that any short-term solutions may not resolve the underlying issues for Boeing [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the implications for major U.S. retailers like Amazon and Walmart, and how these companies are navigating the challenges posed by tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Amazon's attempt to display additional tariffs on its website has angered the White House, highlighting the strained relationship between major corporations and the U.S. government [2][5] - Both Amazon and Walmart have significant reliance on Chinese suppliers, with over 60% of their products sourced from China, making them vulnerable to tariff impacts [9][10] - The U.S. retail sector is facing potential inventory shortages, with estimates suggesting that shortages could begin as early as late May or mid-June [12][14] Group 2: Retail Sector Dynamics - The article emphasizes the critical nature of the U.S. retail sector, which is heavily driven by consumer spending, accounting for 70% of GDP [12] - Major sales periods, such as back-to-school and Christmas, are at risk if supply chain issues persist, potentially leading to significant stock price declines for retailers [25][26] - Retail giants are urged to act quickly to secure inventory to mitigate the risk of shortages and consumer panic buying [23][24] Group 3: Financial Risks and Market Implications - The interconnectedness of the U.S. stock market with corporate debt and treasury markets poses a risk if supply shortages lead to inflation, potentially triggering a financial crisis [28][29] - The article suggests that the current financial landscape is shifting from a focus on core assets to a focus on safe assets, indicating a change in investor sentiment [31] Group 4: Manufacturing and Economic Positioning - China's advanced manufacturing ecosystem, with a significant number of ISO9001 certified organizations, makes it difficult for other countries to replace Chinese manufacturing capabilities [34][36] - The article highlights the importance of maintaining a competitive edge in global trade, suggesting that the U.S. and China must navigate their relationship carefully to avoid detrimental economic impacts [41][44]

据央广网报道，前不久，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者问，近来美方不断有消息称中美 之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。请问您能否证实双方有没有开始谈判？"这些都是假消息。"发言人 表示，据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。这场关税战是由美 方发起的，中方的态度是一贯的、明确的。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开，对话谈判必须是平等、尊 重、互惠的。 特朗普（资料图） 不仅如此，日本放送协会记者提问，《华尔街日报》表示，特朗普考虑大幅下调对华关税，下调幅度或 超过一半，这取决于中国什么时候会降低关税。中方对此有何评论？"刚才我已经介绍了中方的有关立 场。"发言人再次强调，这场关税战是美方发动的，中方的态度是一贯的、明确的。如果美方真的想通 过对话谈判来解决问题，就应该放弃极限施压那一套，停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同 中方对话。 中方的立场始终明确：如果对方选择对抗，我们将奉陪到底；如果愿意对话，我们的大门始终敞开。 然而，这样的对话必须建立在"平等、尊重、互惠"的基础之上。这八个字，既是中国外交的基本原则， 也是中美关系能否持续改善的关键。 在当前国际形势复杂多变的背 ...

Group 1: Shipbuilding Industry - China dominates the shipbuilding industry, securing 70% of global orders as of 2024, showcasing its leadership in maritime trade [3] - The busy operations at Jiangnan Shipyard challenge the perception of China's naval technology lag, with over 40% of the global cargo fleet under the Chinese flag [3] Group 2: Automotive Industry - In 2024, China produced 31 million vehicles and exported 6.4 million, surpassing global competitors and changing perceptions about its automotive capabilities [3] - Traditional European automotive giants are now facing competition from Chinese companies like BYD and CATL, indicating a shift in industrial dominance [3] Group 3: Aerospace Industry - China's achievements in aerospace, including the C919 aircraft and rapid advancements in defense and space technology, signify its emergence as a key player in global tech competition [5] - The Tiangong space station has become a focal point for international collaboration, further establishing China's role in aerospace [5] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Despite Western attempts to hinder China's semiconductor progress, Shanghai Microelectronics has successfully mass-produced 28nm lithography machines, demonstrating resilience and innovation [5] - China's advancements in semiconductor technology, despite U.S. restrictions, highlight its growing capabilities in AI and technology sectors [5] Group 5: Economic and Political Context - The U.S.-initiated tariff war in 2025 inadvertently catalyzed China's rise, revealing vulnerabilities in Western hegemony [7] - The tariff strategy aimed at reshaping the U.S. economic position backfired, weakening its own economic advantages while strengthening China's global presence [7] - The evolving global landscape is characterized by a shift towards a multipolar international system, with China taking a leading role [7]

Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...

短短两天时间，特朗普又翻脸了？ 当特朗普坐着自己的空军一号前往罗马的时候，他对记者表示："不会降低对中国的关税，除非中国给 美国一些实质性的好处"。 结果外交部发言人连续几天都表示：中美之间并没有进行谈判，外交部完全不知情。甚至中国驻美使馆 也表示：中美双方没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判。 外交部：中美谈判是假消息 面对特朗普："要求中国进行实质性让步"的要求，我们是如何表态的，又该如何应对呢？今天就来谈谈 这些话题，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 特朗普"两面三刀" 特朗普虽然两面三刀而且谎话连篇，但是他的所有做法都有自己的目的，而唯一不变的就是他的举动都 想"要点好处"。 而美国要的好处是什么呢？简单来说就是"中国市场对美开放"。 很显然，特朗普的这番言论已经打了自己的脸。 因为按照此前特朗普的言论，美国是释放了多重的缓和信号的。不仅美国财政部长贝森特表示，中美之 间的高关税"不可持续"，贝森特和特朗普都表示已经和中国谈判，甚至特朗普还说自己已经接到了来自 中国的电话。 结果是什么呢？结果就是每天都有记者拿着特朗普和贝森特的言论去问外交部。中国和美国是不是不打 贸易战了？美国是不是对中国试好了？中美之间是 ...

谈及房地产行业，陆挺认为尽管当前房地产行业仍处于调整期，但在人口向大城市集聚、老旧住房 更新需求释放等趋势下，房地产市场仍有很大发展空间。他建议，剩余城市的限购限售可以进一步 取消，全面释放市场活力。同步加快行业债务出清进程，强化保交房政策执行力度，通过"保交付、 稳预期"重构购房者信心。 本文节选自腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士视频专访的专篇报道，请点击"阅读原 文"查看原报道。 2025年一季度中国经济以5.4%的增速超预期开局，彰显了中国经济在复杂环境下的韧性。然而，持 续的中美关税战仍为接下来的经济走势增添了不确定性。 面对内外挑战，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺在与腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对话时指出，中美贸易冲 突升级可能导致中国出口增速下降，叠加房地产行业萎缩，二季度起GDP增速或放缓。对此，他认为接 下来提振经济，需要进一步刺激消费，并稳住房地产。 在经历了两轮"以旧换新"政策后，耐用品刺激政策边际效应逐步递减，促消费政策可转向耐用品消 费之外，陆挺认为"推动养老体系改革和保障水平提升，才是最具效能的促消费工具。"他进一步给 出具体建议：提升农民养老金，通过增强中低收入群体 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **General Outlook**: The market is currently focused on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. The prices of soybeans and soybean meal are influenced by multiple factors, including the Sino - US tariff war, South American soybean production, domestic inventory, and demand [14][15]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, it maintains a range - bound oscillation, and in the medium - term, it shows a slightly stronger oscillation pattern. The current situation is a result of the interaction between positive factors such as low domestic inventory and uncertain South American weather, and negative factors like the expected increase in imported soybeans in May and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans [10]. - **Soybeans**: In the short - term, they also maintain a range - bound oscillation. The Sino - US tariff war supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, but the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production put pressure on prices [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - The Sino - US tariff war has been implemented. US soybeans are fluctuating upwards. South American soybean production is affected by weather, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are also influenced by factors such as import volume, inventory, and demand [13]. - The domestic imported soybean arrival volume is lower than expected in the short - term but will increase to a high level in May. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is at a low level, and the South American soybean production area still has weather uncertainties [14]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Short - term lower - than - expected domestic imported soybean arrival volume, low domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain South American soybean production area weather [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The increase in domestic imported soybean arrival volume to a high level in May and the continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The Sino - US tariff war supports the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in the South American soybean production area has improved in the short - term, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import Cost**: The price of US soybeans is fluctuating upwards, and the import cost is expected to be slightly stronger, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal has improved in the short - term, and the oil mill's pressing volume has increased from a low level. The demand is expected to continue to recover, but it may have a bearish impact in the future [9]. - **Transaction**: The downstream's enthusiasm for forward stocking has increased, but the transaction is expected to decline after the May Day holiday, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has dropped to a low level compared to the same period in history, but it is expected to increase from a low level in the future, with a bearish impact [9]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.6 Market Structure of Meal Products - **Soybean Meal Futures**: It has risen and then fallen. The spot price is relatively strong before May Day, and the premium remains at a high level [62]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread**: It has fluctuated slightly, and the spread of the 2509 contract has risen and then fallen [64]. 3.7 Technical Analysis Soybeans - The price has risen and then fallen. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD have entered an adjustment phase, and the short - term trend will wait for new guidance [69]. - The overall trend is still affected by the interaction between US soybeans and imported soybean arrivals, as well as factors such as domestic new - season soybean planting expectations and oil mill pressing [69]. Soybean Meal - It has risen and then fallen this week. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD have entered a consolidation phase, and the short - term trend will wait for the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war and the domestic soybean meal supply - demand pattern [72]. 3.8 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is returning to a range - bound oscillation. The M2509 contract will oscillate between 2900 and 3100 in the short - term, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2507 contract will oscillate between 4100 and 4300, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - **Options**: Wait and see [20].