区中大猪看弱情绪较浓，中大猪价格震荡下行，低价 11.8 元/公斤，高价 13.0 元 /公斤，标肥价差小幅走缩。广东市场生猪出栏均价为 13.02 元/公斤 ，较昨日价 格上涨 0.44 元/公斤，与赣桂湘均价价差 0.66 元/公斤， 规模场主流牌价为 12.40-12.90 元/公斤。7kg 仔猪规模厂牌价 270 元/头左右。110-130 公斤标猪与 150 公斤以上肥猪价差为-0.78 元/公斤。近期生猪主力 2603 合约以小阳线收盘， 期价区间随之上移。技术上，短期关注生猪 3 月合约底部表现，远期合约轻仓长 线多头参与。 二、市场信息 1. 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售 13.6 万吨大豆，对未知目的地出口销售 23.1 万吨大豆，均于 2025/2026 年度交付。 2. 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，巴西 12 月大豆出口量预计为 302 万吨，之前一周预计为 357 万吨。 农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

农产品早报 2025-12-31 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 3、加拿大统计局的报告显示，11 月份油菜籽压榨量为 102 万吨，与去年 11 月份基本持平。11 月份农 户的油菜籽交付量为 162 万吨，比去年同期增长 11.1%。 周二国内油脂震荡，马棕高频出口数据环比转好，印尼计划对非法种植园罚款亦有所利好，不过马棕高 频产量同比较高、出口同比偏低压制行情，国内棕榈油库存也较高。菜油近月减仓回落。广州 24 度棕 榈油基差 05-40（0）元/吨，江苏一级豆油基差 05+500（0）元/吨，华东菜油基差 05+700（0）元/吨。 【策略观点】 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 蛋白粕 【行情资讯】 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆震荡收跌，巴西大豆存丰产预期，阿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices continued to rise on Monday, with near - month contracts leading and far - month contracts following. The futures market rebound and the start of stocking by ports and downstream feed enterprises supported the market. The price of corn in the sales area generally increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and the price in the northern port increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton over the weekend. Technically, maintain a short - term long - position view on corn, and the spot and futures prices are expected to remain strong before New Year's Day [2]. - CBOT soybeans fell on Monday due to cautious trading before the holiday. As of December 25, the US soybean export inspection volume was 750,000 tons, at the lower end of the market's estimated range. Domestically, the prices of two types of meal rose first and then fell, lacking upward momentum. Oil mills announced shutdown plans around New Year's Day, supporting the spot and basis markets. It is expected that the price of soybean meal will fluctuate within a limited range, and a double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - BMD palm oil prices declined on Monday due to high inventories, but the expected decline in production and strong demand limited the drop. The export volume from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% - 3% month - on - month. Domestic vegetable oils showed a mixed trend. The inventory of the three major vegetable oils decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 2.1081 million tons as of December 26, but increased by 9.28% year - on - year. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will fluctuate, and a double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Egg futures slightly corrected on Monday. The spot price of eggs rebounded due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday, but the supply was abundant, so the short - term rebound range is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to changes in the replenishment and culling intentions of the breeding end [2]. - The main continuous contract of live pigs opened with a gap on Monday and then adjusted under pressure, but the price range continued to move up. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 12.29 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous day. Technically, pay attention to the bottom performance of the March 2026 contract in the short term, and participate in the far - month contracts with a long - term long - position with a light position [3]. Market Information Summary - As of December 27, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 97.9%, up from 97.6% last week, compared with 98.2% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96.7%; the soybean harvesting rate was 0.1%, the same as last year and the five - year average [3]. - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the US shipped 135,417 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), down from 386,010 tons in the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume to China accounted for 18.05% of the total export inspection volume for the week, compared with 44.36% last week [3]. - Private exporters reported the sale of 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [4]. - On December 29, the trading volume of soybean oil was 13,000 tons, a 34.02% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean oil showed significant fluctuations in the previous days, with the weekly average being 24,300 tons [4]. Variety Spread Summary Contract Spread - The report presents contract spreads such as the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][6][7] Contract Basis - The report shows contract bases such as those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific data analysis is provided [13][14][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by concerns over month - end inventory growth, Malaysian palm oil will continue to fluctuate in the short - term. In China, due to rising port inventories and the decline of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures face downward pressure [1]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy for soybean oil remains uncertain, and the upcoming South American soybean harvest weighs on CBOT soybean oil. In China, factory inventories are decreasing, but demand is limited [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are falling, leading to increased reluctance to sell among traders. The sentiment is bullish, but over - optimism is not recommended. Spot prices are mainly for forward contracts, and the basis has increased [1]. Cotton - Internationally, ICE cotton futures are down due to year - end factors. US exports are up, but the shipment volume is limited. The quality of actual cotton bales is lower than the inspection report. In the short - term, US cotton will fluctuate. Domestically, the market lacks clear negative factors, and the long - term outlook is optimistic due to expected reduced planting in Xinjiang in 2026/27 [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are up, but further upside is limited. Brazil's influence on raw sugar is decreasing, and the focus is on the Northern Hemisphere. Indian exports are not attractive at current prices, and the raw sugar price is in a low - level consolidation phase. In China, the futures price increase has driven up the basis sugar price, and the market has good trading volume. Attention should be paid to Guangxi's production and actual demand [3]. Jujube - The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is mostly completed. Processors are speeding up production, and the supply of sub - standard products has increased, with weak market demand. New jujube arrivals are late, and there are few new - season warehouse receipts. The futures price has rebounded slightly after over - falling. It is recommended to short on rebounds [4]. Apple - Affected by weak market conditions and reduced liquidity near the New Year's Day holiday, the futures price has declined. In the spot market, arrivals in sales areas have decreased, and the overall trading atmosphere is not strong. The market is in a game between the scarcity of delivery fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. If there is no significant improvement in consumption during the Spring Festival, prices may fall after the festival [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - The futures price increase has boosted farmers' confidence, and prices in northern ports and the Northeast are strong. In North China, farmers are selling at high prices, and prices are fluctuating slightly. On the demand side, northern port inventories are low, but deep - processing enterprises' profit margins are thin, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventories. The short - term price may rise, but the sustainability is limited [9]. Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. South American high - yield expectations suppress the upside, but cost support limits the downside. In China, the spot market is loose. The cost of the 05 contract is under pressure, and soybean inventories are expected to decline. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and cautious operation is recommended [13]. Pig - Spot prices adjusted strongly over the weekend. Seasonal pickling demand is good, and farmers' reluctance to sell provides support. The slaughter period is extended this year, and the December slaughter pressure is not high. The futures market mainly focuses on the post - Spring Festival market, but there may be some early slaughter. Second - round fattening is expected to increase, and the futures price may be strong in the short - term [15]. Egg - In the short - term, the supply of newly - laid hens will remain low. The culling of laying hens may decrease this week as egg prices rise. Due to the New Year's Day holiday, market activity will weaken, and inventories may accumulate. Demand from institutions and food companies is limited. Egg prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating pattern [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 29, compared with December 26, soybean oil futures prices were mostly stable, palm oil futures prices declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices increased slightly. Spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while rapeseed oil increased [1]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, and the basis of various oils also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory trends of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were different, with palm oil inventory increasing and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2605 and 2601 prices declined, ICE US cotton prices decreased slightly, and the 5 - 1 spread decreased significantly. The main contract's open interest decreased, while the number of warehouse receipts increased [2]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased, and the basis between spot and futures contracts also increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Industrial inventory, imports, and other indicators showed different changes, and textile industry indicators such as inventory and exports also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 and 2605 prices declined, ICE raw sugar prices increased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [3]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis and import spreads also changed [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National and regional sugar production, sales, and inventory data showed different trends, and sugar imports decreased [3]. Jujube - **Futures Market**: Jujube 2601 price increased, 2605 and 2609 prices decreased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The open interest decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [4]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Cangzhou decreased, and the basis between spot and futures decreased [4]. Apple - **Futures Market**: The main contract (Apple 2605) price decreased, the basis increased, and the spreads between different contracts decreased. The open interest decreased, and the national cold - storage inventory remained unchanged [5]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume in fruit wholesale markets decreased, and the spot market trading atmosphere was not strong [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: Corn 2603 price increased, port and spot prices increased, and the basis, spreads, and import profit also changed. The open interest increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [9]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 price increased, spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis, spreads, and profit indicators showed different changes. The open interest increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot prices were mostly stable, and futures prices decreased slightly [13]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis of various meals changed to different degrees [13]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [13]. Pig - **Futures Market**: The main contract's basis increased significantly, and the prices of pig 2602 and 2603 increased. The 3 - 5 spread increased, the open interest decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [15]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions increased, and the slaughter volume decreased slightly [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: Indicators such as piglet prices, sow prices, and breeding profits showed different changes [15]. Egg - **Futures Market**: Egg 01 and 02 contract prices decreased, and the 1 - 2 spread decreased [18]. - **Spot Market**: Egg产区 prices increased, and the basis increased significantly [18]. - **Industry Indicators**: Indicators such as egg - laying hen chick prices, culled hen prices, feed - egg ratio, and breeding profits showed different trends [18].

2025年12月30日 | 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆仍收跌，连粕或跟随调整 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：面积预期暂无定论，期价回调20251230 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：短期震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：矛盾继续积累，短期偏强 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,512 | -0.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1] - **Hold (★★☆)**: Soybean, Live Hogs [1] - **Sell (★☆☆)**: None - **Neutral (White Star)**: None Core Views - The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories remain high, and the price of soybean meal will follow the bottom of US soybeans and fluctuate. [3] - The new season of soybeans in South America is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the domestic soybean crushing volume remains high. The high inventory pressure of palm oil in Malaysia needs attention, and the macro - atmosphere of commodities may bring short - term boosts. [4] - The delay in the first shipment of Australian rapeseed for crushing has affected the inventory of rapeseed products. The price of rapeseed products is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. [6] - Corn futures are rising strongly, and the price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with pressure possibly shifting to around the Spring Festival. [7] - The spot price of live hogs has risen rapidly in the short term, but there is a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year. It is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound. [8] - The spot price of eggs is in a low - level shock range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, while the contracts from April to May next year may be relatively strong and can be bought at low prices. The trading rhythm of the peak - season contracts in the second half of next year may be volatile. [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract is strong. Policy - based auction transactions are good, and the spot purchase price has increased. South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and short - term weather is favorable for growth. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market. [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved, and the probability of La Nina turning to ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. US soybean exports are a concern, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. It is estimated that 7.618 million tons of soybeans will arrive in January 2026, 4.8 million tons in February, and 5.5 million tons in March. The price of soybean meal will follow the bottom of US soybeans and fluctuate. [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and domestic soybean crushing volume remains high. There are concerns about the customs clearance rhythm. The high inventory pressure of palm oil in Malaysia needs time to digest. The macro - atmosphere of commodities may bring short - term boosts. [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The delay in the first shipment of Australian rapeseed for crushing has affected the inventory of rapeseed products. The import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil may be delayed, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The price of rapeseed products is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. [6] Corn - Corn futures are rising strongly. The basis of the near - month 01 contract has been repaired. Northeast farmers are reluctant to sell, and the supply of on - the - ground grain is tight. The inventory of traders is low. The price of corn in North China is difficult to decline in the short term. Corn futures are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with pressure possibly shifting to around the Spring Festival. [7] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has risen rapidly due to reduced monthly slaughter and tight supply of large hogs. There is still an expectation of second - round fattening. In the long term, there is a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year. It is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound. [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is in a low - level shock range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, while the contracts from April to May next year may be relatively strong and can be bought at low prices. The trading rhythm of the peak - season contracts in the second half of next year may be volatile. [9]

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月29日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | 王法庭 | Z0019938 | | 臣湘 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12月26日 | 12月25日 | 旅鉄 | 张跃幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | | | | 8390 | 8350 | 40 | 0.48% | | | 期价 | Y2605 | | | | | 7836 | 7824 | 12 | 0.15% | | | 墓差 | Y2605 | | | | | 554 | 526 | 28 | 5.32% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏5月 | | | | | 05+500 | 05+500 | 0 | D | | | 仓单 | | | | | | 28264 | 28264 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With large domestic inventories and fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3]. - For palm oil, the Q1 inventory outlook depends on production and export data. If production is high and exports are weak, prices may decline; if production is low, prices may rise. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [6]. - For sugar, international sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. Domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short term as import supplies decrease [10]. - For cotton, the market has anticipated the reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. With a balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations, the price trend is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [13]. - For eggs, the spot market has improved expectations but is still under pressure. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectations. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term upside pressure [16]. - For pigs, short - term spot prices may remain strong, but the supply - demand tightness is structural. The strategy is to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term downside support [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans opened higher and then fell. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.0644 million tons, up from last week's 1.8404 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.45 days last week, up 0.22 days [2]. - Forecasts show more rain in major Brazilian soybean - growing areas in the next two weeks, while rainfall in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, remains low [2]. 策略观点 - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With large domestic inventories and fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3]. Palm Oil 行情资讯 - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.12% in the first 25 days of December. Ship - loading data indicates mixed trends in exports [4]. - India's vegetable oil imports decreased by about 11% month - on - month and 28% year - on - year in November [4]. - Indonesia plans to fine palm oil growers and miners $8.5 billion for forest encroachment [4]. - Last Friday, domestic oils continued to rebound, with better Malaysian palm oil export data and Indonesia's fine plan being positive factors, but high production and low exports limited the market [4]. 策略观点 - The Q1 inventory outlook depends on production and export data. If production is high and exports are weak, prices may decline; if production is low, prices may rise. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [6]. Sugar 行情资讯 - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The May contract closed at 5,285 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% [8]. - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons [9]. - In November, Brazil's central - southern region had a 21.08% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing and a 32.94% decrease in sugar production [9]. - As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons [9]. 策略观点 - International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. Domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short term as import supplies decrease [10]. Cotton 行情资讯 - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose with increased positions. The May contract closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton or 1.96% [12]. - In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 900,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons [12]. - As of December 26, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, down 0.5 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year, and down 6.7 percentage points from the five - year average [12]. - The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [12]. 策略观点 - The market has anticipated the reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. With a balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations, the price trend is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [13]. Eggs 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable or rising. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, while that in Guantao remained at 2.82 yuan/jin. Egg prices may rebound slightly recently but may fall after the New Year's Day [15]. 策略观点 - The spot market has improved expectations but is still under pressure. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectations. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term upside pressure [16]. Pigs 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose significantly. The average price in Henan increased by 0.56 yuan to 12.42 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan increased by 0.67 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg. Pig prices are expected to be stable or rising today [18]. 策略观点 - Short - term spot prices may remain strong, but the supply - demand tightness is structural. The strategy is to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term downside support [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on December 26, with fluctuations in various commodity prices [1] Group 1: Sugar Futures - Raw sugar futures decreased by 0.78%, closing at 15.17 cents per pound [1] Group 2: Cotton Futures - Cotton futures increased by 0.34%, closing at 64.46 cents per pound [1] Group 3: Cocoa Futures - Cocoa futures fell by 0.35%, closing at $5,945.00 per ton [1] Group 4: Coffee Futures - Coffee futures rose by 0.94%, closing at 348.40 cents per pound [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 养殖产业链日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 大豆：国内大豆市场延续"总量宽松、结构分化"的核心格局，全球供应充 裕背景下，国产高蛋白大豆因货源偏紧与刚需支撑价格坚挺，普通蛋白豆受库存 压力交易平淡；国际大豆期货震荡走弱，进口豆拍卖成交率下滑反映市场情绪趋 于理性，"优质优价"仍是市场核心逻辑。东北大豆整体震荡，优质优价，核心 区间清晰，节奏先抑后扬再回落，政策托底与拍卖放量形成双向牵制。预估豆一 趋势上仍然延续宽幅震荡走势。 玉米：现货方面，市场虽较为平静，但各方均处于博弈观望状态：基层售粮 进度虽快于去年同期（约 45%），但流通粮源减少；港口库存低于去年同期；集 中售卖压力尚未显现，需谨防踩踏式售粮。后续需重点关注基层销售进度及玉米 上市量变化。玉米预估节前保持震荡走势，上方空间短期有限。远月方面或存在 重心略微抬升，在供应压力过后或存在反弹预期。 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、中储粮网、 粮达网、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的 ...