Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 厂 GF FUTUR | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年7月2日 | | | | | | | | | | | 原 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 8240 | 8240 | 0.00% | 0 | 江苏一级 | 现价 | Y2509 | -12 | 7972 | 7984 | -0.15% | 期价 | | 268 | 基差 | Y2509 | 256 | 12 | 4.69% | 现货墓差报价 | 09+250 | 09+250 | 江苏6月 | O | - | | 仓单 | 20582 | 20582 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 6月30日 | 7月1日 | 涨跌幅 | 张跃 | 8430 | 8400 | 0.36% | 广东24 ...

软商品调整、油脂震荡 一、农产品板块综述 USDA 公布的报告显示,美国旧作大豆库存略超市场预期,美豆 面积略低于预期,报告中性偏空,连豆粕震荡收阴,国内6月大豆压 榨量突破千万吨,豆粕供应充足,粕价承压。美国棉花播种面积远高 于市场预期,美棉期价大跌,带动郑棉调整,但国内棉花商业库存下 降,新棉上市前供应偏紧预期支撑棉价高位运行。郑糖受外盘下挫的 带动而回落,进口糖放量预期亦令郑糖承压。红枣强势上行,新疆高 温天气令新季红枣减产预期大增,助推红枣持续上涨。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一)豆粕: 震荡收阴,窄幅波动 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约震荡收阴,窄幅波动,美国农业部播 种面积报告符合市场预期,对行情影响有限: 1. 美国农业部报告显示,2025年美国大豆播种面积 8338万英 亩,低于 3月份预测的 8349.5万英亩,比上年同期减少 4.2%,略低 于市场预期。季度库存报告显示,截至6月1日美国大豆库存总量为 10.08 亿蒲式耳,高于市场的预期,比去年同期增长 3.9%,有偏空影 响。 目前国内进口大豆充沛,6月全国油厂大豆压榨量突破 1000万 吨,7月份大豆到港同样庞大,高压榨将延续千万吨级别,豆粕 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 按照 短线反弹 | CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 | | | | 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。美豆种植天气顺利，市场预计美豆种植 | | | | 面积环比增加，利空市场情绪，本周豆粕预计继续维持累库，基本面偏空。美豆种 | | | | 植面积环比小幅下降，季度库存高于预期，隔夜美豆下跌。整体数据影响有限。市 | | | | 场继续围绕基本面波动。豆粕日内反弹有限，震荡整理为主。主力【2950，2980】 | | | 短线反弹 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | 至 | 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持作 | | 菜粕 | | 用。周末加拿大菜籽种植面积报告出炉，2150 ...

1. General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, meals, corn, and hogs, dated July 1, 2025 [1][4][6][7][11][13][16] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 3. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit; Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2] - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil and US soybean's good growing conditions affect CBOT soybean and soybean oil; domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase, and the spot basis is under pressure [2] Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming looser, capping the upside of raw sugar prices; domestic sugar market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term but turn bearish after the rebound due to expected import increase [5] Cotton - The tight supply of old - crop cotton persists in the short - term, but the long - term supply is sufficient; downstream demand is weak, so cotton prices are likely to range - bound [6] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and prices may remain stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then stabilize [8] Meals - US soybean planting area was slightly lowered, with a neutral impact; Brazilian soybean market is boosted; domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is stable. Pay attention to demand sustainability and look for long opportunities on dips [11] Corn - Corn supply is tight, and prices are rising steadily in the spot market. Although there are some factors limiting the increase, the long - term supply - demand gap supports price increases. Pay attention to the corn auction and wheat market [13][15] Hogs - The spot price of hogs is still in a range - bound pattern. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline for the 09 contract if the inventory moves backward [16][17] 4. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,240 yuan, down 0.60% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2509 is 7,984 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is 256 yuan, down 11.11%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 9.00% [2] - **Palm oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8,400 yuan, down 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 is 8,330 yuan, down 0.55%; the basis is 70 yuan, down 43.55%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in September decreased by 4.79% [2] - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,080 yuan, down 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 is 9,415 yuan, down 0.54%; the basis is 165 yuan, down 10.33% [2] Sugar - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.50%, and sugar 2509 increased by 0.26%; ICE raw sugar decreased by 3.00%; the 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.77% [5] - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.16%, and in Kunming increased by 0.08%; the basis in Nanning decreased by 8.39%, and in Kunming decreased by 10.20% [5] - **Industry situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the inventory decreased by 9.56% [5] Cotton - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.15%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.04%; ICE US cotton decreased by 1.85%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 300.00% [6] - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.43%, and CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.30% [6] - **Industry situation**: Industrial inventory decreased by 1.2%, imports decreased by 33.3%, and textile exports showed mixed performance [6] Eggs - **Futures market**: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 0.44%, and the 07 contract increased by 0.64%; the basis decreased by 20.78%, and the 9 - 7 spread decreased by 0.23% [7] - **Spot market**: The egg price in the production area decreased by 4.90% [7] - **Related indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens increased by 4.05%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.86% [7] Meals - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,840 yuan, up 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 is 2,961 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 121 yuan, up 3.97%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 13.3% [11] - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,470 yuan, up 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,572 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 102 yuan, up 20.93%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.17% [11] - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.02%; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.22% [11] Corn - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,378 yuan, down 0.25%; the basis is 2 yuan, up 150.00%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 8.11%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [13] - **Corn starch**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,733 yuan, down 0.36%; the basis is - 13 yuan, up 43.48%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 11.76%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.14% [13] Hogs - **Futures market**: The price of the 2507 contract increased by 1.65%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.96%; the 7 - 9 spread decreased by 94.74%; the main - contract position increased by 1.78% [16] - **Spot market**: The prices in various regions generally increased, with the largest increase of 600 yuan in Guangdong [16] - **Related indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.27%; the self - breeding profit increased by 159.02%, and the purchased - piglet profit increased by 29.49%; the fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [16]

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米 9 月期价震荡收十字星，价格延续盘整表现。当日，玉米 7 月持仓下 | 震荡 | | | 降，资金向 9 月合约移仓较为有限，期价连续三日呈现震荡表现。现货市场方面， | | | | 周末玉米报价稳中偏强运行。目前进口玉米拍卖消息已出，从周末市场表现来看 | | | | 并未受到明显影响，东北部分深加工玉米收购价格继续上调，产区玉米报价仍维 | | | | 持在相对高位。周末华北地区玉米到货量维持低位，加上近期阴雨天气较多，部 | | | | 分深加工企业玉米价格继续上行，普遍上调 10-20 元/吨。基层余粮不断减少， | | | | 贸易商挺价意愿较强。周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口贸易商报价坚挺， | | | | 下游提货速度一般，港口库存仍有压力。饲料企业对玉米高价接受度有限，小部 | | | | 分企业刚需采购玉米，多数使用小麦替代一部分玉米。技术上，玉米 9 月合约关 | | | | 注 2420 前高压力的价格表现，进口拍卖预期兑现，期 ...

Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Palm oil: With concerns about month - end inventory growth, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2]. - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil reduces the attractiveness of soybean oil as a biodiesel raw material. Abundant rainfall in US soybean - growing areas and high - yield expectations put pressure on CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, downstream demand is weak, and soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [2]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From June 27 to June 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan to 8,240 yuan, a decline of 0.60%; the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 18 yuan to 7,984 yuan, a decline of 0.22%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 100 yuan to 8,400 yuan, a decline of 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 decreased by 46 yuan to 8,330 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan, a decline of 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 decreased by 51 yuan to 9,415 yuan, a decline of 0.54% [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2509 decreased by 32 yuan to 256 yuan, a decline of 11.11%; the basis of P2509 decreased by 54 yuan to 70 yuan, a decline of 43.55%; the basis of 01509 decreased by 19 yuan, a decline of 10.33%. The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 50 yuan to - 160 yuan, an increase of 23.81%; the 2509 spread increased by 28 yuan to - 346 yuan, an increase of 7.49% [2]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height, and raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the market sentiment has improved, and the bullish sentiment may last for some time. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after the rebound [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From the previous value, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 28 yuan to 5,628 yuan, an increase of 0.50%; the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 15 yuan to 5,807 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.50 cents to 16.19 cents per pound, a decline of 3.00% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 tons, an increase of 119.89 tons or 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 tons, an increase of 152.10 tons or 23.07% year - on - year. The national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 32.21 tons to 304.83 tons, a decline of 9.56% [5]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight old - crop cotton inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry continues to weaken, with increasing finished - product inventory. The driving force for cotton price increases is insufficient, and the cotton price is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From the previous value, the futures price of cotton 2509 decreased by 20 yuan to 13,740 yuan, a decline of 0.15%; the futures price of cotton 2601 decreased by 5 yuan to 13,760 yuan, a decline of 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton decreased by 1.28 cents to 68.04 cents per pound, a decline of 1.85% [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial cotton inventory decreased by 1.10 tons to 93.01 tons, a decline of 1.2%; the cotton import volume decreased by 2.00 tons to 4.00 tons, a decline of 33.3%. The yarn inventory days increased by 1.52 days to 23.86 days, an increase of 6.8%; the grey - fabric inventory days increased by 2.57 days to 35.46 days, an increase of 7.8% [6]. Group 4: Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The national egg supply is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream purchasers are cautious. Egg prices are expected to remain stable first, decline slightly in the short term, and then stabilize [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,689 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.44%; the futures price of the egg 07 contract increased by 18 yuan to 2,821 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.64%. The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.14 yuan to 2.78 yuan per catty, a decline of 4.90% [7]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained at 4.00 yuan per chick; the price of culled chickens increased by 0.18 yuan to 4.62 yuan per catty, an increase of 4.05%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.09 to 2.24, a decline of 3.86% [7]. Group 5: Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The US soybean planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has strengthened, and the Brazilian soybean market is boosted by the rising basis of August and September shipments. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, the basis is stable, and the supply is expected to be high. The soybean meal trend is not yet clear, and there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [11]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 20 yuan to 2,840 yuan, an increase of 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 increased by 15 yuan to 2,961 yuan, an increase of 0.51%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 40 yuan to 2,470 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 increased by 13 yuan to 2,572 yuan, an increase of 0.51% [11]. - **Spread and Ratio**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 38 yuan, an increase of 7.32%; the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 2 yuan to 271 yuan, an increase of 0.74%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.038 to 2.90, a decline of 1.30%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.020 to 2.70, a decline of 0.73% [11]. Group 6: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is rising steadily. In the Northeast, the remaining grain is scarce, and traders are reluctant to sell. In North China, the corn arrival volume is low, and deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase. Downstream demand is weak, but the wheat - corn price difference is shrinking, which limits the increase in corn prices. In the long term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the upward movement of corn prices. A large - scale increase in imports is expected. The corn auction starts on July 1, and the overall trend is bullish [13][15]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of corn 2509 decreased by 6 yuan to 2,378 yuan, a decline of 0.25%; the futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 10 yuan to 2,733 yuan, a decline of 0.36% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of vehicles remaining in the morning at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 65 to 216, an increase of 43.05%. The corn starch inventory increased by 948 to 23,822, an increase of 4.14% [13]. Group 7: Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is still in a volatile structure. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, and the slaughter procurement difficulty has slightly increased. The current breeding profit is declining, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. The market expects a potential upward trend in July and August, but there may be a risk of price decline for the 09 contract near the delivery date if the inventory is postponed [16][17]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of live pigs 2507 increased by 225 yuan to 13,850 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of live pigs 2509 decreased by 135 yuan to 13,870 yuan, a decline of 0.96% [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 376 to 140,739, a decline of 0.27%. The self - breeding profit per head increased by 30.9 yuan to 50 yuan, an increase of 159.02%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding increased by 55.1 yuan to - 132 yuan, an increase of 29.49% [16].

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆旧作库存偏高，新作面积略减 | 2 | | 豆粕：报告落地、美豆微涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：内强外弱 | 7 | | 棉花：缺乏有效驱动期价冲高回落 | 8 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.55% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,330 7,984 | -0.22% | 8,316 7,974 | -0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,415 | -0.54% | 9,446 | 0.33% | | 期 货 | ...

期货盯盘神器专属文章 CBOT农产品晚间分析：大豆在周五的修正性反弹中得到了一定支撑，但仍然偏空；CBOT玉米仍然看 跌，USDA种植面积报告的任何利好消息都可能……点击了解详情。 相关链接 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A KH | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 王滚框 | Z0019938 | 2025年6月30日 | | | | | | | | | | 票阳 | 6月27日 | 6月26日 | 涨跌幅 | 张跃 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8290 | 8240 | 50 | 0.61% | 现价 | 8002 | Y2509 | 8000 | 2 | 0.03% | 期价 | | 基差 | Y2509 | 288 | 240 | 48 | 20.00% | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09 +250 | 09+250 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 18882 | 18882 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 6月27日 | 6月26日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 8 ...