| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月27日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王法庭 | Z0019938 | | 更油 | | | | | | | | | | | 11月26日 | 11月25日 | 旅跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8510 | -20 | -0.59% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8150 | 8144 | 6 | 0.07% | | 墓差 | | Y2601 | 310 | 366 | -56 | -15.30% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏1月 | 01+280 | 01+280 | 0 | : | | 仓单 | | | 22029 | 24625 | -2596 | -10.54% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | | | 11月26日 | 11月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 8290 | 8370 | -80 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/M粕类**: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday due to demand support and pre - holiday short - covering. The import cost bottom may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][3][5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production showed mixed trends. Domestic oils stopped falling and rebounded. Palm oil may reverse its supply - surplus situation in the future, and it is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [7][9]. - **Sugar**: New sugar - cane season production in major countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market lacks strong driving forces. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The futures market is expected to fluctuate before the spot price rises seasonally. In the medium - term, pay attention to supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of live pigs remains under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday. Brazilian soybean premiums increased slightly, and domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 231.73 million tons. As of November 22, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 78.0% [2][3]. - **Strategy**: The import cost bottom may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production showed mixed trends. Domestic oils stopped falling and rebounded on Wednesday, and the spot basis rose slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil may reverse its supply - surplus situation in the future. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective, and turn to a long - position if production decline signals appear [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, a decrease of 26 compared to last year [11]. - **Strategy**: New sugar - cane season production in major countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 52 million tons [14]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market lacks strong driving forces. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Most egg prices remained stable on the previous day, with supply and demand in a stalemate [17]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is expected to fluctuate before the spot price rises seasonally. In the medium - term, pay attention to supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Domestic pig prices mainly fell on the previous day, with some areas rising slightly. The supply of live pigs remains high, and the price increase space is limited [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply of live pigs remains under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse spreads [21].

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，在玉米现货延续上涨、港口玉米库存下降的双重利多作用影响下，玉米近 月 2601 合约突破创新高，远期跟随上涨。目前，中央储备玉米轮换采购价格继 | | | | 续上涨，现货报价继续走高，期、现报价联动上涨。今日华北地区玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏弱运行。山东深加工企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加 | | | | 工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。 | | | | 供应来看，经过前期价格上调，基层农户售粮积极性略有提升，但贸易环节收购 | | | 玉米 | 较为谨慎，目前干粮供应依然较少。需求来看，深加工企业看量调价，库存水平 | 震荡上涨 | | | 维持低位，饲料企业刚需补库为主。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面仍偏 | | | | 强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上量一 | | | | 般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态滚 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年11月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田和 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 8510 | 8490 | 20 | 0.24% | 现价 | 江苏一级 | -0.29% | Y2601 | 8144 | 8168 | -24 | 期价 | | 墓差 | 13.66% | Y2601 | 366 | 322 | 44 | 01+280 | 01+270 | 10 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | - | | 仓单 | 24625 | 24625 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 8370 | 8430 | -0.71% | 广东 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is to be treated weakly for now due to doubts about inventory reduction at the origin [1]. - Soybean oil is expected to mainly trade in a range, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is to be widened [1]. Section Summaries Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil closed at 8,360 yuan/ton (down 1.48% during the day session) and 8,336 yuan/ton (down 0.29% - 0.66% during the night session); soybean oil closed at 8,144 yuan/ton (down 0.29% during the day session) and 8,090 yuan/ton (no night - session change provided); rapeseed oil closed at 9,818 yuan/ton (up 0.41% during the day session) and 9,718 yuan/ton (down 1.02% during the night session); Malaysian palm oil closed at 3,990 ringgit/ton (down 1.60% during the day session) and 3,985 ringgit/ton (down 0.13% during the night session); CBOT soybean oil closed at 50.63 cents/pound (up 0.22%) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil trading volume was 597,491 lots (up 19,647), and open interest was 403,650 lots (up 1,873); soybean oil trading volume was 193,598 lots (down 6,902), and open interest was 400,254 lots (down 12,897); rapeseed oil trading volume was 331,005 lots (up 27,934), and open interest was 213,554 lots (down 21,536) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 8,370 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,520 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 10,260 yuan/ton (no change); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,025 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars) [2]. - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 10 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 376 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 442 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 1,458 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 216 yuan/ton; palm oil 1 - 5 spread was - 82 yuan/ton; soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 198 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 330 yuan/ton [2]. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Exports**: ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25, 2025, were 1,041,935 tons, a 18.8% decrease from the same period last month; AmSpec reported exports of 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease from the same period last month [3][4][5]. - **US Agricultural Aid**: The Trump administration is expected to announce a package of aid for US farmers within two weeks [5]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Brazil's November soybean exports are expected to reach 440 tons (down from last week's forecast of 471 tons), and soybean meal exports are expected to be 250 tons (down from last week's forecast of 268 tons) [5]. - **Argentine Soybean Processing**: Argentina's October soybean crushing was 4,036,171 tons, with soybean oil production of 794,211 tons and soybean meal production of 2,976,944 tons. As of November 1, 2025, soybean inventory was 2,798,823 tons, soybean oil inventory was 296,624 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 1,050,328 tons [5]. - **EU Imports**: As of November 21, 2025, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 1.12 million tons (down from 1.36 million tons last year); soybean imports were 4.66 million tons (down from 5.41 million tons last year); soybean meal imports were 7.02 million tons (down from 7.83 million tons last year); rapeseed imports were 1.51 million tons (down from 2.53 million tons last year) [6]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast remains at 20.028 million tons, exports at 7 million tons, domestic use at 12.226 million tons, and ending inventory at 2.5 million tons [6]. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7].

| 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，暂时偏弱对待 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：移仓换月，震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：近月合约表现强于远期合约 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：去库节点已至 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,360 | 涨跌幅 -1.48% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,336 | 涨跌幅 -0.29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,144 | -0.29% | 8,090 | -0.66% | | | 菜 ...

农产品早报 2025-11-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆震荡，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本稳定。周二国内豆粕现货持稳，华东报 2980 元/ 吨，豆粕成交一般、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 231.73 万吨，上周压榨大豆 233.44 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 7.98 天环比下降 0.25 天，港口大豆上周去库，但同比仍较高，豆粕库存回 升至 100 万吨以上，因压榨量较大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西大豆产区 11 月降雨水平同比往年略低，12 月预报雨量较多，预计播种较为顺利。11 月 USDA 月报 预估 25/26 年度全球大豆产量与消费量已几乎持平，同时，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-25 终端观望为主，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3011元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.03%；菜粕2601合约2446元/吨，较前日 变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.62%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+39， 较前日变动+11；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-31，较前日变动+11；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-41，较前日变动+1。福建地区菜粕现货价格2630 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+184，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周五公布，美国8月大豆压榨量为594万吨。11月21日，咨询机构Patria Agronegocios表 示，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植面积已经达到预估面积的79.61%，低于上一作物年度同期的83.29%。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松，大豆持续到港，油厂开机率虽有所上升，但库存消耗较为缓慢，依旧维持在百万吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月25日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 壬泽辉 | | Z0019938 | | 臣湘 | | | | | | | | | | | | 11月24日 | | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | 张庆幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8490 | | 8470 | 20 | 0.24% | | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8168 | | 8190 | -22 | -0.27% | | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 322 | | 280 | 42 | 15.00% | | | | | 01+270 | | 01+270 | 0 | | | | 现货基差报价 | 江苏阴 | | | | | 오프 | | | 仓单 | | 24625 | | 24625 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | | 11月2 ...

Group 1: Oil Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - Palm oil: The Malaysian palm oil market is under pressure due to potential production growth and weak exports. Dalian palm oil futures are also weak, with short - term support levels to be tested. There is a risk of further decline if the bearish factors persist [1]. - Soybean oil: The market is dragged by the potential negative impact of the US biodiesel policy and uncertain US soybean exports. Downstream demand is limited, but the oil - mill profit provides some support for the basis price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, compared with November 20, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade soybean oil decreased by 1.17% to 8470 yuan, and the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 0.41% to 8190 yuan. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 2.31% to 8470 yuan, and the futures price of P2601 decreased by 1.11% to 8550 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.99% to 10170 yuan, and the futures price of OI601 increased by 0.38% to 9816 yuan [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 100% to 0, and the 2601 contract spread increased by 4.99% to - 722. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread increased by 13.33% to 1700, and the 2601 contract spread increased by 4.57% to 1626 [1]. Group 2: Meal Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The recent strong US soybean crushing data supports the US soybean price, but the market has fully priced in the uncertainty of China's soybean procurement. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The futures price has limited downward space but lacks the momentum to rise. It is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 0.17% to 3012 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.83% to 2420 yuan, and the futures price of RM2601 increased by 0.79% to 2431 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread decreased by 3.33% to 580, and the 2601 contract spread decreased by 3.97% to 581 [3]. Group 3: Live Hogs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The market supply has recovered, and the price has turned weak again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the market is not optimistic about the medium - term price. The strategy of 3 - 7 reverse spread can be continued [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.67% to 11860 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2601 decreased by 0.79% to 11350 yuan/ton. The spot price in Henan decreased by 0.43% to 11700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Hebei decreased by 0.85% to 11650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Indicator Changes**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.07% to 201586 heads, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100% to 0 yuan, and the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37% to - 136 yuan/head [5]. Group 4: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The current spot price of corn is stable and slightly strong due to farmers' reluctance to sell, limited logistics in the Northeast, and government procurement support. However, the price increase is limited due to the expected selling pressure after the harvest and the shrinking profit of deep - processing enterprises. The corn price will fluctuate with the supply rhythm [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 1.25% to 2195 yuan/ton, and the futures price of corn starch 2601 increased by 1.58% to 2512 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit of corn increased by 25.64% to 40 yuan, and the import profit increased by 3.22% to 325 yuan [8]. - **Indicator Changes**: The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 16.54% to 318, and the warehouse - receipt quantity of corn decreased by 0.83% to 68764 [8]. Group 5: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The global sugar market is in a relatively calm state. The new sugar in Guangxi has been launched, and the futures price is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.24% to 5353 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2605 decreased by 0.34% to 5302 yuan/ton. The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.54% to 5480 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.36% to 5470 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Indicator Changes**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1048 million tons. The industrial inventory in the whole country decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons [12]. Group 6: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The market demand for eggs is weak, and there is a risk of price decline in some areas. However, due to the price approaching the feed cost line and farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, the decline space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 1.77% to 2934 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of the 01 - contract decreased by 1.67% to 3184 yuan/500KG. The egg - chicken price decreased by 3.57% to 2.70 yuan/feather, and the culled - chicken price decreased by 3.96% to 3.88 yuan/jin [15]. - **Indicator Changes**: The egg - feed ratio increased by 2.56% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% to - 23.06 yuan/feather [15]. Group 7: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - Globally, the cotton supply is abundant, and the impact of factors affecting the US cotton harvest on production is limited. In China, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient downstream demand provide some support. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Changes**: On November 21, the futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.22% to 13445 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13460 yuan/ton. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton increased by 0.05% to 14571 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industry Indicator Changes**: The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons. The cotton export volume decreased by 0.3% to - 1685.60 million tons [17].