Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, silver to decline slightly, and copper to await the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance with a narrowing trading range. Zinc is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, while lead's price is supported by inventory reduction. Tin and aluminum are predicted to trade within ranges, and alumina is expected to decline slightly. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel will operate in a low - level range, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 776.08 with a night - session decline of 0.01%. Gold T + D closed at 771.66 with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session price was 772.50 with a 0.01% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3383.50 with a 0.26% decline, and London gold spot closed at 3338.25 with a 0.25% decline. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9162 with a 1.31% increase, and the night - session price was 9233.00 with a 0.81% increase. Silver T + D closed at 9144 with a 1.33% increase, and the night - session price was 9198 with a 0.72% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 38.590 with a 0.55% increase, and London silver spot closed at 38.095 with a 0.51% increase [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 24,336, and the open interest decreased by 8,259 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai gold remained at 36,642 kg, while Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 65,319. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 25,144 kg, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 347,707 [5]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost**: The spreads and arbitrage costs of gold and silver showed various changes. For instance, the spread between gold T + D and London gold decreased by 2.52, and the spread between silver T + D and London silver increased by 5,089 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold's trend intensity is 1, and silver's is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,630 with a 0.30% decline, and the night - session price was 78,730 with a 0.13% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 9,721 with a 0.38% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 24,847, and the open interest increased by 1,819. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 718, and the open interest decreased by 2,295 [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 275, and LME copper inventory increased by 1,200. The spreads between different copper contracts and the arbitrage costs also changed [10]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and a smelter's maintenance period was extended due to equipment failure. Codelco restarted a smelter, and Glencore applied to include copper projects in Argentina's investment incentive plan. China's refined copper and copper concentrate imports in July had different changes [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper's trend intensity is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,240 with a 0.11% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2,786 with a 0.58% increase [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 26,050, and the open interest decreased by 568. The LME zinc trading volume decreased by 1,474, and the open interest increased by 574 [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai zinc inventory remained unchanged, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [13]. - **News**: The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and the labor - market cooling was more obvious [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc's trend intensity is 0 [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,745 with a 0.12% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 1,980.5 with a 0.33% increase [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 9,828, and the open interest decreased by 2,546. The LME lead trading volume decreased by 1,375, and the open interest decreased by 964 [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 1,481, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [16]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead's trend intensity is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 266,480 with a 0.51% decline, and the night - session price was 266,840 with a 0.30% decline. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 33,475 with a 0.89% decline [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 27,750, and the open interest decreased by 633. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71, and LME tin inventory increased by 25. The spreads between different tin contracts also changed [20]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years. The euro - zone business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade - agreement framework [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin's trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,590, and the LME aluminum 3M price closed at 2,593. The Shanghai alumina main - contract price was 3,124, and the cast - aluminum alloy main - contract price was 20,125. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy contracts had various changes [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventories of aluminum, alumina, and related products, as well as the spreads between different contracts, showed different trends [23]. - **News**: A Fed official said that there might be no interest - rate cut in September [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830, and the stainless - steel main - contract price was 12,795. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts had various changes [27]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices and spreads of nickel - related products and stainless - steel products in the industry chain also changed [27]. - **News**: There were issues such as potential nickel - export suspension from Canada, a nickel - iron project in Indonesia entering the trial - production stage, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [32].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The copper market is waiting for guidance from the Fed's interest rate cuts, with price fluctuations narrowing [1] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 78,730, up 0.13%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,721, up 0.38%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 48,373, an increase of 24,847 compared to the previous day, and the position was 139,777, an increase of 1,819. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,574, a decrease of 718, and the position was 263,000, a decrease of 2,295. The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,223, a decrease of 275, and the inventory of LME Copper was 156,350, an increase of 1,200. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 6.88%, a decrease of 0.38% [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,200, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous day. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was 190, a decrease of 5. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was 10, a decrease of 10. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first contract was 204. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was 171, an increase of 24. The spread between the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third contract and LME 3M was - 144, an increase of 35. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 944, a decrease of 106. The import profit and loss of recycled copper was - 1,287, a decrease of 467 [1] [Macro and Industry News] - **Macro News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, a Fed voter for next year said that there may be no interest rate cut in September, and this year's voters were hesitant about action. After that, the yield of the two - year US Treasury note was close to a three - week high. Fed Chair candidate Brad suggested aggressive action: a 100 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, with the first action in September. The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, unexpectedly reaching a new high in more than three years, and inflation pressure intensified [1] - **Industry News**: The oxygen - making equipment of the PT Smelting smelter malfunctioned, extending the originally scheduled four - week maintenance period. The smelter of the El Teniente copper mine of Codelco has restarted operation. Glencore has submitted an application to include two copper mine projects in Argentina with a total estimated capital expenditure of more than $13 billion in the Argentine government's investment incentive program. In July 2025, China's refined copper imports were 335,969.236 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in July 2025 were 2,560,072.316 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. Australia's Hillgrove Resources said that a new high - grade copper/gold resource was discovered in its Kanmantoo underground mine in South Australia, and early drilling indicated that there was a possibility of increasing the mine's metal resources in the near future [1][3] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]

Core Insights - Eurozone's composite PMI for August rose to 51.1, up from 50.9 in July, marking the highest level since May 2024 and exceeding the expected value of 50.7 [1] - Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.5 from 49.8, indicating a return to expansion for the first time in three years, with the output sub-index reaching 52.3, the fastest growth in nearly three and a half years [1] - Services PMI slightly decreased to 50.7 from 51.0, indicating a slight slowdown in expansion [1] Economic Activity - Economic activity in the Eurozone has shown improvement in both manufacturing and services sectors, with growth accelerating slightly over the past three months [1] - Stability in service sector sales price inflation may provide some comfort to the European Central Bank [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 50.5, exceeding the forecast of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8 [1] - The Eurozone's August services PMI preliminary value is 50.7, slightly below the forecast of 50.8 and the previous value of 51 [1]

Group 1 - The preliminary value of Japan's August Services PMI is 52.7, down from the previous value of 53.6, indicating a slowdown in the services sector [1] - The preliminary value of Japan's August Manufacturing PMI is 49.9, an increase from the previous value of 48.9, suggesting a slight improvement in the manufacturing sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) for August shows a slight month-on-month increase of 1.0 points, indicating a stabilization in economic activity despite remaining at a historically low level of 47.8, the lowest for August since 2014 [1][6][8]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The EPMI increased by 1.0 points in August, aligning closely with the seasonal average increase of 1.1 points [7]. - The absolute index value of 47.8 is 1.0 points lower than the same month last year, marking the lowest level recorded for August since data collection began in 2014 [8][9]. Demand and Production Indicators - Demand indicators showed slight improvement, with product orders and export orders rising by 2.5 and 2.8 points respectively, while production indicators fell by 0.3 points [10]. - The production-to-order ratio turned negative at -0.6, indicating a better alignment between supply and demand [10]. - Supply contraction led to price increases, with purchase prices rising by 5.3 points and sales prices by 1.5 points [12]. - The difficulty of obtaining loans in emerging industries increased by 2.6 points, reflecting a tightening financing environment [12]. Sector Performance - The sectors of new energy and energy conservation are leading in terms of absolute economic performance, with significant price increases in the new energy vehicle, new energy, and biological industries [14]. - In August, new energy and energy conservation were the only two sectors in the expansion zone, likely influenced by accelerated fiscal funding and seasonal factors [14]. - Price increases in the new energy vehicle sector were notable, with sales prices rising by 4.6 points, indicating effective price management in larger enterprises [14][17]. High-Frequency Data Insights - High-frequency data from early to mid-August showed resilience in exports, production constraints, and strong pricing [18]. - Traditional industries experienced a decline in operating rates due to "anti-involution" effects, with specific declines noted in the automotive tire sector [18]. - Overall, manufacturing PMI is expected to show little change compared to July [18].

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the context of the domestic "anti-involution" theme, the mid - and downstream black and chemical sectors have relative returns, and processing profits still face the need for repair [3] - Refining profits are passively repaired, and the processing demand in the peak season of the fourth quarter recedes [33] 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - related Commodity Prices - The report presents the unit heat - value price performance of energy - related commodities and the cumulative price changes of commodities in the post - energy - crisis era, including TTF natural gas futures, API2 Rotterdam Q6000 coal futures, ICE NEWC futures, and Brent crude oil futures [3][4] Crude Oil Spot and Futures Spreads - It shows the spot - futures spreads of various crude oils such as Forties, IK Fisker crude, CPC Blend CIF, etc., and the spreads between different crude oil futures contracts like Brent C1 - C7, dated BFOE - WTI Cushing, etc [6] OPEC+ Production - Displays OPEC+ production, production quotas, target production, and the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also shows the weekly loading volume of crude oil from 9 OPEC countries [8] Crude Oil Exports - Presents the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, including their exports to China [11] Geopolitical Risks - Displays the probability forecasts of geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement in 2025 [12] US Oil Production - Covers the number of non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs in the US, the monthly average price of WTI (with a 4 - month lag), the breakdown of new shale oil production in the US, and the dynamic adjustment of US crude oil production forecasts [15][16][17] Non - OPEC and Other Regions' Oil Supply - Shows the oil supply growth rate of non - OPEC, Russia, and shale oil regions, the crude oil and condensate production of 4 American countries, and the new conventional production capacity in 2025 in countries like Norway, the US, etc [19] Federal Reserve Policy and Global Manufacturing - Displays the pricing of the remaining number of Fed rate hikes in 2025 and the global manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, etc [22] Global Oil Demand - Shows the downward adjustment of global oil demand growth rate by institutions in April 2025 and the forecast of global oil demand growth rate by product [24] US and Chinese Oil Product Demand - Presents the year - on - year growth rate of the 4 - week average of US refined oil product demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel in China, and China's refined oil product exports [28][31] Refining Profits and Capacity Utilization - Displays the comprehensive refining profits of refineries in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the US Gulf, the refining margins of Chinese refineries, and the capacity utilization rates of Chinese and international refineries [34] Crude Oil and Oil Product Inventories - Covers the on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory of crude oil, as well as the global inventory of refined oil products, light distillates, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc [36][38] OPEC+ Supply - Demand Balance - Shows the global demand for OPEC+ crude oil supply under the baseline scenario, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory [40] Other Oil - related Data - Displays the monthly asphalt production of domestic refineries, the shipping destination structure of Venezuelan oil, the spot - futures spreads of Singapore fuel oil, the ship - refueling spreads, and the high - low sulfur spreads [43][52][53]

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing sector is likely to experience a moderate slowdown, but there are structural highlights, particularly in ASEAN countries and Africa, where manufacturing sentiment remains high. Short-term positive trends may also be observed in ASEAN countries and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI [2][22]. Group 1: Global Manufacturing Cycle Status - The global manufacturing cycle is closely linked to global trade growth, analyzed through hard indicators like industrial production and soft indicators like manufacturing PMI [4][12]. - From the global industrial production index, there has been a decline in year-on-year growth from 3.6% in March to 3.1% in May, still above last year's average of 1.7% [5][14]. - The main contributors to growth are China, the Eurozone, developed Asian economies (excluding Japan), Africa, and the Middle East, with the top four regions contributing 2.8% to the global industrial production index [5][14]. - The Eurozone is leading in growth, while emerging Asian economies (excluding China) are experiencing declines, indicating a recovery in Eurozone industrial demand [5][14]. Group 2: Global Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The global manufacturing PMI has dropped below the expansion threshold to 49.7% in July from 50.4% in June, indicating a weakening manufacturing cycle [6][20]. - Factors suppressing manufacturing activity in the second half of the year include significant order front-loading in the first half, leading to a decline in new export orders and a reduction in inventory levels in the U.S. [6][20]. - Emerging markets are performing better than developed markets, but the gap is narrowing, with July manufacturing PMI for emerging markets at 50.5% and developed markets at 49.1% [7][20]. - Among 22 sample economies, only five had manufacturing PMI above the expansion line in July, with India leading at 59.1% [7][21]. - Notably, 14 economies saw an increase in manufacturing PMI from June to July, with Vietnam showing the largest increase of 3.5 points [7][21]. Group 3: Key Data Review and Tracking - Upcoming key economic data includes the U.S. July CPI on August 12 [29]. - Recent data shows the U.S. composite PMI exceeded expectations, while the Eurozone's performance was below expectations [30]. - The U.S. retail sales growth rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% reported [34].

Group 1: Global Manufacturing Cycle Overview - The global manufacturing cycle is showing signs of moderate slowdown, with structural highlights in ASEAN countries and Africa, particularly South Africa[2] - The global industrial production index growth rate fell from 3.6% in March to 3.1% in May, still above last year's average of 1.7%[3] - The main contributors to industrial production growth are China, the Eurozone, and developed Asian economies, with the Eurozone leading the growth[3][13] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.7 in July from 50.4 in June, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[5][19] - Among 22 sample economies, only 5 had a PMI above the neutral line in July, with India at 59.1% and Vietnam at 52.4%[5][20] - In July, 14 out of 22 economies saw an increase in PMI compared to June, with Vietnam leading at +3.5 points[5][20] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US composite PMI for July was 55.1%, exceeding expectations, while the Eurozone's was 50.9%, below expectations[28] - The US initial jobless claims rose to 226,000, indicating a slight increase in unemployment[40] - Recent financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have improved, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US rising to 0.62[48]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The new orders index fell into the contraction zone, primarily due to weakened external demand and adverse weather conditions affecting production [1][2] - The production index was reported at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities despite a decline from the previous month [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in expansion at 50.3%, showing resilience and strong growth potential in this sector [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point [4] - Service sector activities showed stability, with a business activity index of 50.0%, reflecting positive consumer behavior during the summer season [4][5] - The construction sector experienced a slowdown due to adverse weather, with a business activity index of 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that despite short-term fluctuations due to weather, the foundation for economic recovery remains solid, supported by strong demand and policy backing [3][6] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service providers regarding future market conditions [5] - Continued implementation of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand is expected to support investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [6]