Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed chairperson selection may be announced soon, which will determine market expectations for next year's interest rate cuts. Tight liquidity in the US at the end of the year is negative for gold, which is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The Fed's December meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts, but the easing cycle continues. The market expects a pause in January, so silver may reach a phased top and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. - Macro - policies will maintain a "double - loose" tone in 2026, which boosts market sentiment and supports steel prices. However, the steel market is in a weak balance, and short - term steel prices may oscillate narrowly [4]. - Iron ore supply is relatively stable, and demand is gradually stabilizing. With port inventories accumulating and strong upstream - downstream gaming, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The manganese - silicon market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with upstream inventory pressure capping prices. In the medium term, prices will oscillate around cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs is abundant, and short - term pig prices will continue to rebound and adjust [5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports to the US are strong. Market expectations of reduced production and import profit inversion support palm oil prices, which are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - The spot price of soybean meal has a clear bottom support, while the main contract is suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as they seek a new balance between "real - world pressure" and "long - term narratives" [8]. - Oil prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors and should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - PTA supply has not fully recovered, and there is no inventory - building pressure in January. A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term, considering factors such as production and demand [11]. - Long - term government bonds should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and the relationship between the stock and bond markets [11]. - Methanol supply and demand remain weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with prices expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14]. 3. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed chairperson news and year - end liquidity affect it. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - **Silver**: Fed meeting minutes suggest a possible pause in rate - cuts. It may reach a phased top, and over - optimism should be avoided [2]. Metals - **Steel**: Macro - policies support prices, but the market is in a weak balance, and short - term prices will oscillate narrowly [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is stable, demand is stabilizing, and prices will oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: Supply - demand is loose, and prices will oscillate around cost in the medium term [5]. - **Copper**: Prices will maintain a high - level oscillation as they balance short - term and long - term factors [8]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Overall supply is abundant, and short - term prices will rebound and adjust [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Exports to the US are strong, and prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Spot has bottom support, and the 05 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by supply - demand and geopolitics, prices should be treated with an oscillatory view [9]. - **PTA**: Supply has not fully recovered, and a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Prices are expected to be long - biased at low levels in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices will oscillate in the short term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is weakly stable and oscillatory, with short - term price oscillation expected [13]. - **PVC**: Prices will oscillate slightly downward in the short term due to supply, demand, and cost factors [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Government Bonds**: An oscillatory mindset is recommended, and attention should be paid to monetary policy and market relationships [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant drop in silver prices, suggesting it was manipulated by Wall Street capital, which initially drove prices up before a sharp decline [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in margin requirements for various metal futures, including silver, as a measure to "curb speculation and stabilize the market," which directly impacts the cost of purchasing contracts [1] - Historical patterns of manipulation by Wall Street are highlighted, including past instances where price surges were followed by regulatory measures that led to significant price drops, indicating a recurring strategy to attract retail investors before a market correction [2] Group 2 - Current economic conditions in the U.S. show structural disparities in the job market, but the overall risk of recession remains low, with the Federal Reserve exhibiting cautious attitudes towards inflation and employment targets [4] - Market expectations for monetary easing may rise due to comments from influential figures and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting gold prices positively in the long term [4] - Short-term market dynamics may suppress gold price increases, with a need for further economic data and Federal Reserve statements to influence market sentiment and price movements [4]

来源：环球总财 数据还显示，金融公司周一通过美联储逆回购设施存入的现金金额为105.55亿美元，显著低于上周五的 203.4亿美元。逆回购使用量的减少，在一定程度上反映了在美联储的政策引导下，银行正更积极地利 用定期回购工具来获取资金，市场流动性结构正发生微调。 市场分析人士指出，年底美联储隔夜回购工具使用量的激增，反映了金融机构在面临季节性流动性紧张 时的正常预防性需求。尽管使用量攀升至历史高位区间，但这并不意味着金融体系出现了系统性风险， 反而体现了美联储设立该工具作为"后备安全网"的有效性。通过及时提供流动性支持，美联储成功平抑 了市场利率的异常波动。展望未来，随着美联储暂停缩表并购买短债，市场流动性环境将得到进一步改 善，预计跨年资金面将保持总体平稳，货币市场利率将回归至政策利率目标区间附近运行。（环球网财 经 文馨 ）#金店店员忙晕了# #财经# #银行##美联储# 【#年底流动性承压，美联储隔夜工具使用量激增# 】 据路透社消息，随着年底流动性压力的增加，银行业对美联储隔夜流动性工具的使用需求显著上升。根 据纽约联储周一发布的数据，美联储通过定期回购操作向符合条件的金融机构提供的隔夜贷款总额达到 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-12-30 市场流动性概况 2025-12-29，股指板块成交5741.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-23.58%；持仓金额14013.11亿元，较上一交易日变动 -5.73%；成交持仓比为40.80%。 国债板块成交5026.32亿元，较上一交易日变动+47.87%；持仓金额7975.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.77%；成交 持仓比为63.41%。 基本金属板块成交13251.34亿元，较上一交易日变动+42.90%；持仓金额7321.16亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.75%； 成交持仓比为181.10%。 贵金属板块成交19077.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+71.88%；持仓金额5485.01亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.66%；成 交持仓比为512.60%。 能源化工板块成交5109.57亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.27%；持仓金额4304.77亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.72%；成 交持仓比为114.73%。 农产品板块成交2947.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.06%；持仓金额5580.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.85%；成交 持仓比为50.93%。 黑色建材板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - On December 29, COMEX gold experienced a sharp decline, closing at $4350.2 per ounce, a drop of 4.45%, while domestic SHFE gold also fell significantly to 975.80 yuan per gram, down 4.00% [2][6]. Market Dynamics - Despite a decrease in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, these factors did not create a favorable environment for precious metals, as market sentiment dominated trading [2][6]. - Following a strong year-end rebound, both gold and silver markets faced severe sell-offs, with traders cashing in profits leading to a sharp drop in precious metal prices, ending the recent upward trend [2][6]. Price Movements - Spot gold saw an intraday drop of 5%, marking the largest single-day decline since October 21, and this was the second occurrence of such a significant drop this year [2][6]. - Silver's decline was even more pronounced, with an intraday drop reaching 11%, the largest single-day decline since September 2020 [2][6]. Future Outlook - The upcoming holiday period will see the release of the US December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which may influence gold prices, alongside ongoing geopolitical conflicts that could also impact market conditions [2][6]. - Caution is advised for holding positions during the holiday season due to the potential for increased price volatility in the short term [2][6].

纽约联邦储备银行公布的数据显示，周一美联储通过常备回购工具（SRF）向符合条件的金融机构累计 放贷259.5亿美元。这一规模在该工具自2021年推出以来的使用记录中位列第三高。每逢季末，货币市 场往往会出现波动率走高的现象。本月早些时候，美联储已停止缩减资产负债表，并开始购入短期国 债，以此调节市场流动性规模，确保对自身利率目标体系的有效掌控。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Group 1: Report Core View - Last week, the gold price continued to rise, with New York gold breaking through $4,500 and Shanghai gold breaking through the 1,000-yuan mark. After the meetings of the US and Japanese central banks ended, market liquidity recovered, and the US dollar index remained weak, which was positive for the gold price. In the long run, although the gold price has broken through the late-October high, its overall performance is far inferior to other precious metals and copper, mainly due to the high short-term market risk appetite and the decline in the safe-haven demand for gold. Before the New Year's Day holiday, continuous attention should be paid to the long-short game at the $4,500 mark of New York gold, and beware of the risk of a high-level pullback before the holiday [5][21] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing prices [9] 2.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | December 26 | December 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,562.00 | $4,368.70 | 4.42% | | COMEX Silver | $79.68 | $67.40 | 18.22% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,016.30 yuan | 979.90 yuan | 3.71% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 18,319.00 yuan | 15,376.00 yuan | 19.14% | | US Dollar Index | 98.03 | 98.72 | -0.69% | | USD/CNH | 7.00 | 7.03 | -0.41% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.91 | 1.92 | -0.01 | | S&P 500 | 6,929.94 | 6,834.50 | 1.40% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $56.93 | $56.65 | 0.49% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 57.26 | 64.82 | -11.67% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 55.48 | 63.73 | -12.95% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,071.13 tons | 1,052.54 tons | 18.59 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 492.64 tons | 491.82 tons | 0.82 tons | [10] Group 3: Liquidity Recovery after Japanese Yen Interest Rate Hike - After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, the market showed a "boot landing" situation, with a significant recovery in short-term liquidity. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling to the 98 mark, which was positive for the gold price [12] Group 4: Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,563.77 tons, an increase of 19.41 tons from the previous week. After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, precious metals generally rose, with silver's increase significantly larger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio continued to weaken, dropping below 60 last week [16][18]

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复利好金价，避险需求 下降利空金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 上涨 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 核心逻辑：上周金价持续上行，纽约金突破 4500 美元，沪金突破 1000 元关口。周四海外开始圣诞 假期，国内波动下降。拉长时间看，随着美日央行会议相继结束，市场 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and market activity of the Penghua Sci-Tech Bond ETF, which has seen an increase of 0.06% and achieved eight consecutive gains, with a trading volume of 8.3 billion yuan [1] - The Penghua Sci-Tech Bond ETF has experienced a net inflow of funds totaling 1.118 billion yuan over the last four days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 499 million yuan, indicating strong market interest [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a net liquidity injection of 188.8 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations, maintaining a stable liquidity environment and supporting market confidence [1] Group 2 - The Penghua Sci-Tech Bond ETF tracks the Shanghai AAA Technology Innovation Company Bond Index, which includes bonds rated AAA and above, providing advantages such as low fees, low trading costs, and high transparency [2] - Huaxi Securities believes that the policy benefits will expand the market space for sci-tech bonds, and the ETF's unique index-based nature will enhance its long-term value and market influence [2] - Penghua Fund aims to establish itself as a "fixed income index expert" by actively developing a range of fixed income products, including bond index ETFs and credit bond indices, since the second half of 2018 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are strong, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that during the overseas Christmas and New Year holidays, the market trading atmosphere cools down. Also, after the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, the US dollar index is weak, and gold prices have risen this week. [1][3] - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, strong, and oscillating upward respectively, with a recommendation of waiting and seeing. The core logic is that overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity, and in China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The current high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: This week, gold prices have risen, with New York gold breaking through $4500 and Shanghai gold breaking through 1000 yuan. After the US and Japanese central bank meetings, market liquidity recovers, and the weak US dollar index is beneficial to gold prices. During the overseas Christmas holiday, the domestic trading atmosphere weakens, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [3] Copper - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Strong [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating upward [1] - **Reference View**: Wait and see [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas Christmas and New Year holidays lead to low market liquidity. In China, there are year - end capital pressures and weak downstream procurement. The high copper price is suppressing the real economy, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased significantly. During overseas holidays, Shanghai copper continues to operate strongly, and there is a risk of short - term price decline due to long - position liquidation. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [4]