Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $126,251 on October 6, only to drop below $94,000 by November 17, erasing all gains for the year due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing market conditions [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macro liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has led to a cautious trading environment, affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [3][4] Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price, but recent outflows indicate a potential shift as macro liquidity tightens and political uncertainties rise [5][6] - The reliance on institutional capital highlights the fragility of Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge against inflation, especially given its high volatility compared to traditional assets like gold [6][7] Regulatory Environment - The evolving regulatory landscape and the diminishing expectations of supportive policies from the Trump administration have contributed to market participants' cautious outlook [3][4] - The need for a robust regulatory framework and the maturation of ETF channels are seen as essential for Bitcoin's long-term viability [6][7] Correlation with Other Assets - The simultaneous decline of Bitcoin and gold suggests a breakdown of traditional safe-haven logic, driven by liquidity constraints and a strong dollar [8][9] - The current market environment indicates a deeper liquidity pressure test, where all asset classes are experiencing increased correlation and simultaneous declines [10]

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.4677% to 1.4945%, a rise of 2.68 basis points, while DR007 rose from 1.4130% to 1.4673%, an increase of 5.43 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 narrowed by 2.75 basis points [9][13] - The net outflow of funds this week was 12.693 billion yuan, with net inflow decreasing by 28.346 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 44.735 billion yuan, while demand was 57.428 billion yuan [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose, with the consumer services sector leading with a weekly increase of 4.81%. Other sectors like textiles, apparel, and pharmaceuticals also saw slight increases. The telecommunications and electronics sectors led the declines, with drops of 4.90% and 4.44% respectively [18][21] - The basic chemical industry saw the highest net inflow of leveraged funds at 4.935 billion yuan, while the computer industry experienced the most significant net outflow at 3.728 billion yuan [21][22] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - The consumer style index had the largest increase in daily trading volume share, rising by 1.98%, while the growth style saw the largest decline, dropping by 2.20%. The growth style remains the most active sector, accounting for 52.92% of daily trading volume [31][34] - The main funds in the style sectors showed a trend of reduction, with the stable style seeing the largest increase of 0.35 billion yuan, while the growth style experienced a significant reduction of 17.877 billion yuan [33][34]

流动性日报 | 2025-11-17 市场流动性概况 2025-11-14，股指板块成交6491.48亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.99%；持仓金额13272.51亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.03%；成交持仓比为48.47%。 国债板块成交3818.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.89%；持仓金额8469.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.50%；成交持 仓比为43.76%。 基本金属板块成交4456.69亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.30%；持仓金额6285.70亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.88%；成 交持仓比为77.35%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 贵金属板块成交9528.06亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.09%；持仓金额4768.19亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.51%；成交 持仓比为261.87%。 能源化工板块成交4594.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.26%；持仓金额4595.99亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.25%；成 交持仓比为86.33%。 农产品板块成交3169.38亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.21%；持仓金额6051.76亿元，较上一 ...

Group 1 - The current AI wave is driven by the stock market, characterized by ample funding but volatile stock prices, leading to investor impatience regarding profit realization [1][5] - Concerns over excessive investment in AI have intensified, with major AI companies experiencing stock price fluctuations, particularly after a significant fund liquidated its holdings in a leading chip company [1][3] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed a cautious stance on further interest rate cuts, with a notable statement from Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggesting that maintaining current rates may be more appropriate for the time being [1][2] Group 2 - The swap market's expectations for a December rate cut have shifted from nearly certain to a 50-50 probability, indicating increased uncertainty regarding future financing costs [2] - There is a growing skepticism among investors and analysts regarding the astronomical levels of infrastructure investment in the AI sector, with estimates suggesting a total investment of $5 trillion in AI and related industries by 2030 [3][4] - The rapid iteration of AI chip investments poses challenges for tech companies, as the depreciation period of 8-10 years may not align with the fast-paced technological advancements, potentially affecting future profitability [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing slight increases, with specific movements in various government bond ETFs and futures contracts [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% [1][2] - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is highlighted as the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes, making it suitable for both short-term trading and long-term investment strategies [2] Group 2 - The bond market is characterized by a relatively loose liquidity environment in November, with overnight and 7-day rates at yearly lows, and expectations of continued liquidity support from the PBOC through various monetary policy tools [2] - The PBOC's recent operations reflect a policy intent to support liquidity, with expectations of further injections into the market as 900 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature [2]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - London gold rose 2.1% to $4084 per ounce, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, inflation expectation was 2.3%, real interest rate slightly rose to 1.83%, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.3, the S&P 500 index rose 0.08%, the RMB appreciated, and the premium of Shanghai gold increased [2] - Gold price first rose and then fell. Initially, it was pushed up by the expectation of the Fed's balance sheet expansion. However, later, due to factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and the cooling of the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the gold price remained in a consolidation phase [3] - The easing of the US foreign tariff policy led to a decline in risk aversion [4] - In the short term, the gold price has not escaped the consolidation pattern, and there is a risk of correction. The domestic gold maintains a small premium [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 44.2% week-on-week, the domestic and foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) increased by 493.2% week-on-week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.9% week-on-week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.92% week-on-week, the SPDR ETF holdings increased by 0.19% week-on-week, the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.7% week-on-week, the US dollar index decreased by 0.26% week-on-week, the SOFR increased by 2.3% week-on-week, the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate increased by 0.92% week-on-week, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.1% week-on-week, the VIX volatility index increased by 3.9% week-on-week, the gold cross-market arbitrage trading increased by 1.5% week-on-week, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 1.3% week-on-week [12] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4%, the oil price fell 0.1%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.3% [18] - The US dollar index fell 0.3%, the US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.08%, and the VIX index slightly rose to 19.8 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 0.08%, and developing country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.18% [23] - The real interest rate fluctuated and closed at 1.83%, the gold price rose 2.1%, the spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index fell 0.3% [25] - The euro appreciated 0.47%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.08%, the yen depreciated 0.74%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 1.39% [29] - US and German bonds rose, with a US - German yield spread of 1.42%, the UK Treasury yield was 4.5%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.7% [30] - The US dollar index fell 0.31% to 99.3, and most non - US currencies appreciated [31] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The data on gold speculative net long positions was suspended due to the government shutdown, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings slightly rose to 1044 tons [34] - The RMB slightly appreciated, the premium of Shanghai gold increased, gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio decreased to 78 [37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Important data and events include Japan's Q3 GDP, the US November New York Fed manufacturing index, the US November NAHB housing market index, the UK and Eurozone October CPI, the US weekly initial jobless claims, the US November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US September non - farm payrolls, Japan's October CPI, and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [38]

国泰海通发布研报称，随着美国政府停摆的结束，随着美国政府停摆的结束，美国财政部账户余额预期 开始下降，市场流动性缓解后，黄金的短期压制因素解除。在去美元化的长期背景下，在美国政府结束 停摆后，预期美国关键经济数据将重新开始披露，美联储将重新评估美国经济的运行情况。虽然美国25 年12月降息幅度、26年降息路径及空间仍存在一定不确定性，但美国降息的趋势将不会发生改变，金价 中期存在支撑。 来源：滚动播报 ...

好的点是如果盘前这个价能抗到感恩节后，我觉得市场流动性会好很多，看了一下一些西方 CT 的情绪 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-11-14 市场流动性概况 2025-11-13，股指板块成交7132.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.63%；持仓金额13276.36亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.46%；成交持仓比为53.55%。 国债板块成交3538.94亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.89%；持仓金额8598.81亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.44%；成交 持仓比为42.07%。 基本金属板块成交4968.41亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.54%；持仓金额6405.93亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.38%； 成交持仓比为85.64%。 贵金属板块成交9731.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+46.88%；持仓金额4841.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.61%；成 交持仓比为267.54%。 能源化工板块成交4798.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+39.28%；持仓金额4654.27亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.34%； 成交持仓比为84.93%。 农产品板块成交3241.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.50%；持仓金额5983.03亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.19%；成 交持仓比为48.51%。 黑色建材板块成交193 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a short - term view of being bullish, due to the decline of the US dollar index and the recovery of gold prices. Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, supported by macro - economic easing and mine production cuts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last night, the gold price rose and then fell, with New York gold falling below $4200. Recently, precious metals have regained their upward momentum, with silver performing strongly and the gold - silver ratio continuously declining. Non - ferrous metals have also generally risen [3]. - **Driving Logic**: The likely reason for the rise is the recovery of market liquidity after the news that the US government reopened. The US dollar index also gave support to the gold price as it fell back after reaching the 100 mark. The short - term focus is on the resistance at the $4200 level [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term view is strong, mid - term view is oscillating, and intraday view is oscillating and bullish [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price rose and then fell, with LME copper once reaching $11,000. However, copper's performance was relatively weak compared to other non - ferrous metals, possibly due to its large previous gains and being at a near 5 - year high [4]. - **Driving Logic**: Macro - economically, the US Senate's agreement to end the federal government shutdown has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a recovery in market liquidity, resulting in a general rise in non - ferrous metals. In the medium - to - long term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations are likely to continue to support the copper price. The short - term focus is on the resistance at the $11,000 level of LME copper [4]. - **Viewpoint**: Long - term view is strong, mid - term view is strong, and intraday view is oscillating and bullish [1][4].