Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing a delicate balance regarding its decision on future interest rate cuts as inflation continues to cool down [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation rate in June increased slightly to 2.0% from 1.9% in May, while core inflation remained stable at 2.3% [1] - Service sector inflation saw only a minor increase, providing some comfort to policymakers [1] Future Projections - The economist predicts that inflation will likely remain below 2% for most of the next two years, driven by expectations of falling oil prices [1] - The analysis suggests that the battle against inflation has largely been won, but this creates a challenging decision for the ECB regarding the end of the current easing cycle [1]

Group 1: Recent Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce to a new monthly low of $3,281, reflecting a weekly decline of over 3.5% due to easing tensions in the Middle East and market caution ahead of U.S. PCE inflation data [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have breached a critical support level of $3,295, with potential further declines to the $3,250-$3,270 range, and if this support fails, prices could drop to $3,120 [1] Group 2: Controversy Over Safe-Haven Status - Experts suggest that gold may gradually replace U.S. Treasuries as the preferred safe-haven asset post-April 2025, particularly as U.S. debt credibility is questioned and global central banks continue to accumulate gold [2] - Despite ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, gold prices have not risen but instead declined, partly due to market focus shifting away from geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3: Long-Term Investment Value - Gold is viewed as a hard currency that can be held long-term without risk of being trapped in losses, with historical examples showing profitability over a decade despite short-term fluctuations [3] Group 4: Central Bank Support - Global central bank net gold purchases are expected to reach a 56-year high in 2024, indicating strong institutional capital bets on long-term bullish trends for gold [4] Group 5: Investment Strategies - It is recommended that individuals allocate 5%-15% of liquid assets to gold, avoiding heavy positions to mitigate risks [5] - Preferred investment channels include bank gold bars with low processing fees and gold ETFs with strong liquidity and low fees, suitable for regular investment [6] - Channels to avoid include gold jewelry due to high premiums and paper gold or leveraged products due to high policy risks [7] Group 6: Timing and Operational Suggestions - Investors are advised to build positions gradually during dips, particularly around key support levels like $3,250 or during off-peak seasons [8] - Implementing a systematic investment approach by contributing a fixed amount monthly can help smooth out short-term volatility [9] - Setting strict stop-loss limits of 5%-8% is recommended to prevent significant losses [10] Group 7: Alternative Opportunities - Platinum and silver are highlighted as significant alternatives, with platinum experiencing a 60% increase this year, and both metals currently valued lower than gold [11] - A "new three gold" investment strategy combining gold ETFs, bond funds, and money market funds is suggested for young investors seeking a balance of stability and returns [12] Group 8: Market Divergence Perspectives - Bullish arguments for gold include the global debt crisis and the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, reinforcing gold's status as a ultimate safe-haven asset [14] - Bearish arguments cite delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tightening dollar liquidity, with technical patterns suggesting a potential drop to $3,100 [14]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a weak state, with prices fluctuating around 3332, and there is potential for a rebound if the market weakens further [2][4] - Long-term, gold remains a solid asset for inflation protection and risk aversion, despite pressures from geopolitical stability and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with a significant drop in prices and a critical resistance level at 3350, suggesting a continued weak outlook unless this level is breached [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market has stabilized after two days of decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 1.1% to $67.89 per barrel, and WTI crude oil increasing to $65.08 [5] - The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.23 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, indicates strong refinery demand and supports oil prices [5] - Technical analysis suggests a mixed outlook for oil, with short-term bearish trends but potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are surpassed [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing trend of companies accumulating Bitcoin amidst geopolitical tensions and market volatility, indicating a shift towards institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies [2][3][5] - Strategy, a prominent company, purchased 10,100 Bitcoin for approximately $1.05 billion between June 9 and June 15, raising its total holdings to 592,100 Bitcoin, solidifying its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin [3][4] - Other companies, including Metaplanet, Remixpoint, The Blockchain Group, BitMine, and Green Minerals AS, have also announced significant Bitcoin purchases, reflecting a broader trend of institutional investment in the cryptocurrency market [3][5] Group 2 - The stock performance of companies holding Bitcoin has shown a premium recognition in the market, with Strategy's stock rising nearly 26% this year, partly due to its Bitcoin valuation being included in major indices like Nasdaq 100 [4] - The accumulation of Bitcoin by companies is seen as a strategy to hedge against macroeconomic risks and inflation, with Bitcoin being perceived as a new reserve asset akin to gold [4][5] - Companies are leveraging Bitcoin holdings to enhance market visibility and attract liquidity, creating a positive feedback loop between Bitcoin purchases and stock price increases [4][5] Group 3 - Some companies view Bitcoin as a strategic pivot to transform their business models, particularly those with stagnant growth, aiming to position themselves as "Web3 companies" [5] - The trend of institutional players accumulating Bitcoin may lead to a potential "institutional lock-up" in the market, reducing selling pressure and enhancing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value [5][6] - However, the concentration of Bitcoin holdings among institutions raises concerns about liquidity and risk, as any significant sell-off by a major holder could have a substantial impact on the market [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant surge in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions and changing monetary policies, with gold being viewed as a safe-haven asset amidst uncertainty [2][4][6] - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $3,400 per ounce, with a notable increase of over $60 in a single day due to renewed conflicts in the Middle East [2][4] - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking a historical high [6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the role of gold as a "ballast" in asset allocation, emphasizing its ability to diversify risk and act as a stabilizer during market downturns [9][11] - Gold's unique properties, such as scarcity and independence from government credit, enhance its appeal as a hard currency in a changing global monetary landscape [11][13] - The article outlines various investment methods in gold, with gold ETFs being highlighted as the most accessible and efficient option for ordinary investors [14][19][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of rational investment strategies in gold, particularly in high-price environments, and suggests that gold should be viewed as a long-term asset for wealth preservation [20] - It notes that gold's price performance is often negatively correlated with traditional financial assets, making it a crucial component in mitigating overall portfolio risk [9][11] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and shifts in monetary policy are expected to continue influencing gold prices, reinforcing its status as a valuable asset in uncertain times [4][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's medium - to long - term bullish logic remains intact. The global trend of de - dollarization drives continuous central bank gold - buying demand. The US twin deficits and economic downward pressure may prompt the Fed to turn to a loose monetary policy. If the tariff policy persists and increases inflation resilience, gold's anti - inflation appeal will strengthen. If the expectation of interest rate cuts becomes clearer, silver's industrial attributes and relative valuation advantages may boost the silver price, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline further. The report suggests paying attention to the range of 767 - 780 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract and 8630 - 8800 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 771.86 yuan/gram, down 9.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8739 yuan/kilogram, down 31 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 147343 lots, down 5119 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 341851 lots, down 6481 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 139204 lots, down 2488 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 113611 lots, up 5838 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 0 kilograms, down 18168 kilograms; that of silver is 0 kilograms, down 1247103 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 776 yuan/gram, down 3.8 yuan; the silver spot price is 8708 yuan/kilogram, up 1 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 4.14 yuan/gram, up 5.64 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 31 yuan/kilogram, up 32 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.4 tons, up 7.16 tons; silver ETF holdings are 14950.99 tons, up 200.71 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 200648 contracts, up 13167 contracts; those of silver are 67174 contracts, up 524 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 15.76%, down 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.67%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 24.01%, down 2.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24%, down 2.24% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Trump announced an Iran - Israel cease - fire, but Iran denied it. The Fed's independence is interfered by Trump, and geopolitical risks intensify, putting pressure on Germany and Italy to repatriate over $245 billion in gold reserves. Fed Vice - Chair Bowman may support a rate cut as early as July. Fed's Goolsbee said that if the impact of trade policies disappears, the Fed should continue to cut rates. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 15.5%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 30%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 10% [2]

盘面看，港股油气股全线重挫，截至北京时间10:49，山东墨龙跌超18%，中石化油服跌超12%，吉星新 能源跌超35%；航运及港口股集体下跌，德翔海运跌近14%，太平洋航运跌超12%。 6月24日， 日韩股市 开盘大幅走高，截至北 京时间10:27， 日经225指数涨1.08%， 韩国 综合指数上涨2.51%。A股及港股市场走强，截至北 京时间10:27，恒生指数涨1.66%，上证 指数涨0.91%，站上3400点。 国际金价、油价走低。截至北京时间10:27，伦敦现货黄金跌0.59%；COMEX黄金期货跌 0.85%；美国原油期货主力合约跌2.45%；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.16%。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/24，不作投资推荐） A股港股走强 油气股重挫 A股指数走强，截至10:57，创业板指涨1.87%，上证指数涨0.9%，站上3400点，全市场上涨个股家数超 4500只，游戏、无人驾驶、航空机场等板块指数涨幅居前。 受国际油价大跌影响，A股油气股集体大跌，泰山石油、贝肯能源等大跌，航运方向也多股大跌。 港股方面， 截至10:49， 恒生指数涨近2%。 新华社消息， 据美国阿克西奥 ...

受国际油价大跌影响，A股油气股集体大跌，泰山石油、贝肯能源等大跌，航运方向也多股大跌。 港股方面，截至10:49，恒生指数涨近2%。 盘面看，港股油气股全线重挫，截至北京时间10:49，山东墨龙跌超18%，中石化油服跌超12%，吉星新 能源跌超35%；航运及港口股集体下跌，德翔海运跌近14%，太平洋航运跌超12%。 | 内地股票 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3412.04 | 10182.47 | 1405.52 | | +30.46 +0.90% +134.08 +1.33% +37.37 +2.73% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 975.66 | 2055.35 | 5191.56 | | +14.17 +1.47% +37.72 +1.87% +60.89 +1.19% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 3897.94 | 5742.14 | 4559.87 | | +40.04 +1.04% +67.97 +1. ...

在同一会议上，欧洲央行副行长路易斯·德金多斯指出，鉴于地缘政治不确定性高企，欧洲央行将继续 坚持"依赖数据、逐次会议制定基准利率" 的货币政策路径。 周三在米兰，欧洲央行管委兼意大利央行行长法比奥·帕内塔表示，欧洲央行将保持灵活政策立场，并 指出预测显示欧元区通胀将在较长时期低于2%目标。 欧洲央行管委兼葡萄牙央行行长马里奥·森特诺周三在同一学生会议上称，欧元区疲弱的经济增长可能 将阻碍通胀长期达到欧洲央行目标。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行(ECB)管理委员会成员兼德国央行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔周四表示，欧洲央 行将继续采取一切必要的举措，以完成其几乎已经达成的抑制通胀使命，并表示欧洲央行利率已处于中 性区域。欧盟统计局周三公布的数据显示，欧元区5月份年度通胀率从4月的2.2% 降至1.9%，顺利降至 欧洲央行长期锚定的2%这一目标附近。 纳格尔在意大利米兰举行的Young Factor 青年才俊金融素养大会上表示，将欧元区通胀率降至2%目标 附近，是欧洲央行促进经济长期增长所能做的最重要之事。 "我认为今年我们将非常接近2%的平均目标，差不多可以说抗通胀任务完成。"这位德国央行行长表 示，并补充称，事实证明 ...

随着以伊冲突持续爆发，直接影响中东地区成品油供给，加剧柴油、汽油等裂解利润波动风险。全球石油资源开始吃紧，全球资金涌入原油市场做多。 近期，英国巴克莱银行在一份报告中指出，如果伊朗石油出口减半，预计布伦特原油价格将升至每桶85美元。该行还补充说，在伊朗发生更广泛冲突的最 坏情况下，预计价格将突破每桶100美元。 近期布伦特原油期货价格不断走高 数据来源：Wind 截至2025.6.18 而从交易角度看，黄金和原油，不仅是重要的国家战略资源，还是大宗商品市场两大核心资产。另一方面，作为为数不多可以通过公募配置的大宗商品之 一，原油与黄金一样，具有抗通胀属性。因此，不少投资者也跃跃欲试。那么关于油气类基金究竟怎么选呢？ 两大油气阵营怎么选？ 目前，国内共有16只油气主题基金，分为直接跟踪原油价格的基金，以及跟踪油气公司股票的基金。 这二者有何不同？就和场内跟踪黄金指数和跟踪黄金股的基金是一个道理。相对而言跟踪原油价格的基金与海外原油的价格产生强挂钩，本身和股市的关 联度并不大。换而言之，无论市场如何波动，只要原油价格坚挺，相对的基金就会表现稳健，这类基金适合作为避险资产或通胀对冲工具。 而跟踪原油股的基金则不同， ...