2025.05.06-05.09 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第17周油厂大豆实际压榨量141.22万吨，开机率为 39.7%；大豆库存459.48万吨，较上周增加33.57万吨，增幅7.88%；豆粕 库存7.48万吨，较上周减少5.07万吨，减幅40.40%。节后随着大豆大量 集中到港，油厂开工率预计陆续恢复正常，大豆压榨量也将显著增加， 阶段性供应紧张局面逐步缓解。但目前下游饲料企业豆粕库存较低，节 后备库需求叠加全球贸易政策的不确定性。综合来看豆粕期价或延续宽 幅震荡走势。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价趋势整体横盘震荡的阶段,资金方面较为偏空。在 现货偏紧和预期宽松的影响下，M2509预计延续宽幅震荡， 运行区间：2900-3100，可考虑区间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面较为偏空。M2509 预计短 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on April 25, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, and multiple commodity futures [2]. - It also provides an analysis of the performance of these futures on April 24, 2025, and offers expectations for their performance in April 2025 [17][38][43]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - side oscillation on April 25, 2025. For example, IF2506 has resistance levels at 3748 and 3768 points and support levels at 3720 and 3705 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to have wide - range oscillations on April 25, 2025. T2506 has resistance at 108.89 and 109.00 yuan and support at 108.63 and 108.57 yuan; TL2506 has resistance at 119.7 and 120.1 yuan and support at 119.0 and 118.6 yuan [2]. - **Commodity Futures** - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2506) and silver (AG2506) are expected to have strong - side wide - range oscillations on April 25, 2025. Gold has resistance at 803.8 and 810.5 yuan/gram and support at 784.6 and 778.1 yuan/gram; silver will attack resistance levels at 8352 and 8380 yuan/kg and has support at 8247 and 8205 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper (CU2506), aluminum (AL2506) are expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, while alumina (AO2509) is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation on April 25, 2025 [3][4]. - **Black Metals**: Iron ore (I2509), glass (FG509), and soda ash (SA509) are expected to be in a weak - side oscillation, while coking coal (JM2509) is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation on April 25, 2025 [4][5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil (SC2506) and PTA (TA509) are expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, while fuel oil (FU2507) and PVC (V2509) are expected to be in a consolidation phase, and methanol (MA509) is expected to be in a weak - side oscillation on April 25, 2025 [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Natural rubber (RU2509), soybean meal (M2509), and rapeseed meal (RM509) are expected to be in a weak - side oscillation on April 25, 2025 [7]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - The 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List reduces the number of items from 117 in 2022 to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions [8]. - The Chinese government clarifies that there are no ongoing Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [9]. - China's central bank conducts a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on April 25, 2025, with a net injection of 5000 billion yuan [10]. - US tariff revenue in April surges by over 60% to at least 15 billion US dollars, setting a new monthly record [11]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Night trading of domestic commodity futures ends with mixed results. Energy and chemical products mostly decline, black metals generally fall, and agricultural products are mixed. Base metals mostly rise [12]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange adjust trading margins and price limits for some futures contracts starting from April 29, 2025 [13][14]. - Thailand's rice exports this year may be lower than the expected 7.5 million tons [14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 24, 2025, major stock index futures contracts show different trends. For example, IF2506 rebounds weakly, IH2506 stops falling and rebounds slightly, IC2506's upward momentum weakens, and IM2506 faces increased downward pressure [17][18][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 24, 2025, treasury bond futures close lower across the board. The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 face slightly increased downward pressure [38][42]. - **Commodity Futures** - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2506) stops falling and rebounds slightly, and silver (AG2506) continues to rise on April 24, 2025 [43][49]. - **Base Metals**: Copper (CU2506) faces increased downward pressure, aluminum (AL2506) rises slightly, and alumina (AO2509) rebounds slightly on April 24, 2025 [55][60][67]. - **Black Metals**: Iron ore (I2509) and glass (FG509) face increased downward pressure, while coking coal (JM2509) and soda ash (SA509) rebound slightly on April 24, 2025 [80][87][89]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil (SC2506) and fuel oil (FU2507) face significant downward pressure, while PTA (TA509) and PVC (V2509) face increased downward pressure on April 24, 2025 [91][95][96]. - **Agricultural Products**: Natural rubber (RU2509) rebounds weakly, soybean meal (M2509) stops falling and rebounds slightly, and rapeseed meal (RM509) continues to rebound on April 24, 2025 [104][107][109].

1. Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: April 24, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Researchers include Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Li Jin (Methanol), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 3. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: EG2505 closed at 4,234 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan, with a position of 73,687 contracts, a decrease of 23,306 contracts; EG2509 closed at 4,250 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan, with a position of 240,127 contracts, an increase of 3,208 contracts. On the 23rd, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4,198, reached a high of 4,254, a low of 4,161, settled at 4,205, and closed at 4,250, up 59 from the previous settlement. The total volume was 225,610 lots, and the position was 240,127 lots [7] - Market Outlook: Short - term supply and demand of ethylene glycol remain weak, but the probability of the US tariff cut increases, and market participants' risk appetite recovers. It is expected that ethylene glycol will maintain a rebound trend [7] 4. Industry News - International Oil Prices: On Tuesday (April 22), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for May 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.31 per barrel, up $1.23 or 1.95% from the previous trading day, trading in the range of $63.43 - 65.09; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for June 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, up $1.18 or 1.78% from the previous trading day, trading in the range of $66.54 - 68.04 [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: The mainstream transaction price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang market was 4,210 - 4,280 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price in Zhangjiagang market followed the upward trend of futures. In Dongguan market, the negotiation range was 4,280 - 4,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with light negotiation and few inquiries from downstream customers. In Fujian market, the negotiation range was also 4,280 - 4,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with the main supply offers on the sidelines and small - volume sporadic transactions [8] 5. Data Overview - Figures Included: PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price summary, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product prices, MEG downstream product inventory. All data sources are Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [10][15][16][19]

4月22日盘中，菜籽粕期货主力合约偏强运行，最高上探至2669.00元。截止发稿，菜籽粕主力合约报 2653.00元，涨幅1.18%。 菜籽粕期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 混沌天成期货 菜籽粕整体跟随豆粕短期走强为主 大越期货 菜粕价格维持震荡偏强格局 铜冠金源期货 双粕短期或震荡运行 混沌天成期货：菜籽粕整体跟随豆粕短期走强为主 宏观层面：美国暂停对中国以外的其他国家征收高额关税90天，外部植物油市场走强，加拿大的油菜籽 需求依然强劲。供需分析：近端下游需求表现仍偏弱，菜粕颗粒粕及杂粕供应相对宽松。后期水产饲料 需求季节性增加，关注需求端表现及去库存情况。观点：我们认为菜粕目前基本面变化不大，整体跟随 豆粕短期走强为主。后续还是重点关注加菜籽菜粕对华进口情况，以及宏观政策上的变动。 大越期货：菜粕价格维持震荡偏强格局 菜粕短期受进口油菜籽库存处于低位和中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税影响震荡上行，加上豆粕带动 菜粕价格维持震荡偏强格局。菜粕RM2509：2600至2660区间操作。 铜冠金源期货：双粕短期或震荡运行 美豆播种进度为8%，快于市场预期7%，但预报中西部 ...