Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - There are concerns about inventory accumulation at ports, but the rate of inventory accumulation is still slow. The pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports will increase in June, and downstream MTO demand and traditional downstream demand are showing different trends. Meanwhile, methanol production profit remains relatively high [3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang, different regions' spot - to - main futures basis, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit, such as the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][27][31]. III. Methanol开工, Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations) [34][35][37]. IV. Regional Price Differences - It lists various regional price differences, like the price difference between North Shandong and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and South Shandong, etc. [39][49][53]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [44][56]. Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 400 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 763 yuan/ton (-30). Inland methanol prices in different regions have changed, with inventory and pending orders in inland factories decreasing. For example, Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 334,010 tons (-1,760), and inland factory pending orders are 235,206 tons (-38,380) [1]. - **Ports**: Taicang methanol is 2320 yuan/ton (+5), and Longzhong's port total inventory is 490,379 tons (+6,479). Downstream MTO operating rate is 82.31% (-0.58%). Regional price differences have also changed [2]. Market Analysis - **Port demand**: There are plans for the resumption of work at downstream MTO Shenghong Sierbang, and attention should be paid to the rate of load increase. The pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports will increase in June, but the rate of port inventory accumulation is still slow [3]. - **Inland**: The operating rate of inland coal - based methanol is still high, but the rate of inventory accumulation has slowed down this week. The low load of MTBE in traditional downstream industries has dragged down the demand in Shandong [3]. - **Valuation**: Methanol production profit remains relatively high [3]. Strategy - Consider cautious short - selling hedging [4].

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 21 日 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-05-20 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 MTO装置恢复，但到港压力仍存 谨慎做空套保 地区价差方面：鲁北-西北-280价差-25元/吨（+58），太仓-内蒙-550价差-286元/吨（+20），太仓-鲁南-250价差-233 元/吨（-23）；鲁南-太仓-100价差-117元/吨（+23）；广东-华东-180价差-165元/吨（+10）；华东-川渝-200价差-223 元/吨（-38）。 市场分析 港口需求方面，下游MTO盛虹斯尔邦逐步结束检修复工，关注提负速率，港口需求有所回升；但港口供应压力仍 存，且伊朗装船顺畅，6月进口到港压力进一步加大，港口现实库存偏低，但后续有累库担忧，关注实际累库兑现 速率，另外天津渤化MTO检修仍等待兑现。内地方面，内地煤头甲醇开工仍偏高，内地持续累库周期，传统下游 方面，MTBE负荷偏低拖累山东需求。估值方面，甲醇生产利润仍偏高。 策略 风险 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤400元/吨（-20），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润798元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2073元/吨（-58），内蒙北线基差401元/吨（-46），内蒙南线2120元 ...

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be weak and consolidate in the short - term. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2200 - 2270 [5]. - The fundamentals show that after the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market trading atmosphere became dull, and local prices declined. The port market maintained a linkage between spot and futures. Although the spot basis in the port was firm before the holiday, the price was under pressure after the holiday due to the expected increase in supply [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2509, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory in East and South China ports decreased, which is bullish; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish; the net long position of the main force decreased, which is bullish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2200 - 2270 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some plants have shut down or have maintenance plans; the expected imports in March are low, and the port inventory has decreased more than expected; the olefin start - up is at a high level, and the traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; the inventory of methanol plants in the production areas is tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the start - up of refineries in northern Shandong is at a low level; the weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although the methanol price has increased significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on the cost, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the downstream; upstream plants are actively selling goods under high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.86% week - on - week; in Hebei, it decreased by 5.49% week - on - week. The futures closing price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2239 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Inventory data**: As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 34.86 tons, a decrease of 10.16 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 7.44 tons to 19.83 tons [5]. - **Spread data**: The basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 183 yuan/ton; the import spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton [7]. - **Profit data**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 60 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged; the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol decreased by 340 yuan/ton [20]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the operating rate in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [7][21]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shanxi Huayu, Henan Hebi, and Anhui Tanxin. Some plants in Inner Mongolia, like Jiutai, Xin'ao, and Inner Mongolia Rongxin, have maintenance plans in mid - to - late March [6]. - **Foreign plants**: In Iran, some plants such as ZPC, Kimiaya are reported to be in the process of recovery, while others like KRS are operating stably. In other countries, plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. are generally operating normally [56].

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 8 日 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-07甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：五一假期原油价格下跌，国内甲醇市场交投气氛趋于平淡，局部价格走跌。港口市场维持期现联动，宏观 及原油走弱压制期货走势，不过港口现货基差坚挺，节前价格尚有支撑，受后续供应提升影响，节后价格承压；预计短 期市场偏弱整理；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2400元/吨，09合约基差181，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年4月24日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为34.86万吨，较上周期降10.16万吨；沿海地区（江 苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源降7.44万吨至19.83万吨；偏多 4、盘面： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market's trading atmosphere turned dull, with local prices declining. The port market maintained a linkage between spot and futures prices. The weakening of the macro - environment and crude oil prices suppressed the futures trend. Although the spot basis in the port was firm, the pre - holiday prices were supported, but the post - holiday prices were under pressure due to the expected increase in supply. The short - term market is expected to be weakly consolidated [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For the MA2509 contract: - Fundamentals: Neutral. After the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market was affected by the decline in crude oil prices, with a dull trading atmosphere and local price drops. The port market was affected by the macro and crude oil situation, but the spot basis was firm. The subsequent supply increase will put pressure on post - holiday prices [4]. - Basis: Bullish. The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2425 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 174, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: Bullish. As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 34.86 tons, a decrease of 10.16 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 7.44 tons to 19.83 tons [4]. - Market trend: Bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - Main position: Bearish. The main position is net short, and there has been a shift from long to short [4]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - and Short - term Analysis - Bullish factors: Some plants have shut down or have maintenance plans (such as Shanxi Huayu, Henan Hebi, Anhui Tanxin, etc.). There are maintenance plans for Jiutai, Xin'ao, and Inner Mongolia Rongxin in mid - to late March. The expected imports in March are low, and the port inventory has decreased more than expected. The olefin plant is operating at a high level, and the traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season. The inventory of methanol plants in the production areas is tight. The central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates to create a favorable monetary and financial environment, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans (such as Ningxia Changyi, Huayi). The operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low. The weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants. Although the methanol price has increased significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on the cost, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the downstream. Upstream plants are actively selling their products due to high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it increased by 1.37% from April 24 - 30, while in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 3.79%. The futures closing price of the main contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 2251 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China and South China ports decreased. The inventory in East China ports decreased by 6.98 tons to 22.92 tons, and in South China ports, it decreased by 3.18 tons to 11.94 tons [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average operating rate of the whole country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. The profit of coal - based methanol production decreased by 55 yuan/ton, while the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol production increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remained unchanged [20]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, including those in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Heimaotou, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses [55]. - **Overseas Plants**: In Iran, some plants such as ZPC, Marjan, and Kaveh are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States, most plants are operating normally, but some have low operating rates or are under maintenance [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East, and other regions are operating stably, but some are under maintenance or have uncertain restart times. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and Qinghai Kangju has been shut down since November 12, 2024, with an undetermined restart time [57].

日报 | 2025-04-23 港口库存拐点临近，港口基差持续走弱 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤460元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润873元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2268元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差608元/吨（+15），内蒙南线2230元/吨（-30）；山东临沂2525元/吨（-10）， 鲁南基差465元/吨（+5）；河南2410元/吨（+0），河南基差350元/吨（+15）；河北2485元/吨（+0），河北基差485元 /吨（+15）。隆众内地工厂库存312369吨（-1901），西北工厂库存188000吨（-3500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274410 吨（+19850），西北工厂待发订单136500吨（+10000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2390元/吨（-20），太仓基差130元/吨（-5），CFR中国267美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差25元/ 吨（+4），常州甲醇2620元/吨；广东甲醇2460元/吨（+0），广东基差200元/吨（+15）。隆众港口总库存585600吨 （+15800），江苏港口库存281300吨（+19300），浙江 ...

2025-04-22甲醇早报 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1、基本面：港口方面，虽然目前港口库存依然偏低，不过后续供应面提升预期下对市场走势存一定压制，基差走弱相 对明显，短期港口市场或偏弱震荡为主，另需关注宏观面变化影响；内地方面，供应面尚存一定利好，然目前内地价格 偏高，贸易商追涨谨慎，加之部分港口货量倒流至山东局部地区，或对内地局部市场存一定冲击，短期内地市场不排除 转弱可能。另需持续关注节前下游备货情况及宏观外围变化等影响；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2400元/吨，09合约基差125，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年4月17日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库 ...