| 甲醇日评20250812: 内地煤制甲醇供应逐步增加 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 2025/8/8 | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/8/11 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 2485.00 | 2475.00 | 元/吨 | 10.00 | 0.40% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 0.49% | 2451.00 | 2439.00 | 12.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2389.00 | 2383.00 | 6.00 | 0.25% | | | | | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2380.00 | -5.00 | 太仓 | -0.21% | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2330.00 | -0.21% | 2335.00 | -5.00 | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2375.00 | 2372.50 | 2.50 | 0.11% | 期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-07甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：基本面分化加剧，预计甲醇后期区域性走势特征凸显。港口市场，预计本周进口到货集中下，港口累库概 率较大，同时浙江煤制烯烃装置停车检修加上行业淡季，一定程度上拖累整体需求，预测本周港口市场偏弱调整为主， 需持续关注进口到货及宏观外围消息。内地方面，虽然甲醇开工处于增加趋势，但内地企业库存偏低短期供应无压力， 叠加烯烃装置重启以及西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需基本面健康对内地甲醇价格有支撑，但同时受港口弱势行情拖 累，预计后期内地甲醇维持窄幅震荡调整阶段；中性 2、基差： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - As the previous policy's bullish expectations are digested by the market, the coal - chemical sector has corrected, and the cost support for methanol has weakened. The fundamental logic will dominate the futures market. With domestic methanol plants resuming production, supply pressure is rising, imports are sufficient, and port inventory is expected to increase significantly. In a weak supply - demand context, the methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Situation - Although there was concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas in early July, the spot price didn't rise significantly due to sufficient downstream inventory. Since late July, previously shut - down plants have resumed production, and the methanol operating rate will gradually increase. As of the week of August 1, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, a 3.28 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last month, and an 11.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The weekly average methanol output was 193.02 tons, a 3.13 - ton increase from the previous week, a 5.69 - ton decrease from the same period last month, and a 31.20 - ton increase from the same period last year. Short - term domestic methanol supply recovery is greater than maintenance losses [3] - Since the third quarter, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been sufficient. Although weather affected the arrival and unloading of imported methanol in China, the overall impact was limited, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation at ports in East and South China is strong. In July, due to typhoons, only 110.69 tons of imported methanol were unloaded, and over 20 tons were postponed to August. Longzhong Information predicts that without weather interference, China's methanol imports in August will reach 155 tons, a monthly record high [4] Demand Situation - The recent shutdown of olefin plants in Zhejiang has increased the inventory accumulation pressure at methanol ports in East China. Although inland CTO procurement has improved apparent port demand, with the expected significant increase in methanol imports in August and no increase in the load of coastal olefin plants, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has risen, possibly leading to methanol flowing from ports to inland areas. As of the week of August 1, the methanol port inventory in East and South China was about 65.03 tons, a 6.32 - ton increase from the previous week, a 15.06 - ton increase from the same period last month, and a 15.80 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory accumulation pressure, low trader purchasing willingness, weak basis, and weak supply - demand expectations have led to a significant decline in spot trading volume [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that with the supply of methanol increasing, shorting on rallies is the main strategy. Although coal prices have rebounded slightly during the peak coal - demand season, domestic methanol supply remains abundant due to high - level stable coal - to - methanol profits and increased methanol production after the autumn maintenance. Meanwhile, imports are recovering, and port inventories are accumulating as arrivals increase. Despite stable downstream demand, the overall situation favors a bearish outlook on methanol [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - In the futures market, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 2390 (-13/-0.54%). In the spot market, prices varied by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2080 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia北线 at 2060 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the price in Lunan was 2300 yuan/ton, and in Lubei was 2310 yuan/ton. At ports, the price in Taicang was 2360 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20250726 - 20250801), the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1030453 tons, an increase of 8500 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 70.64%, an increase of 0.58% from the previous week [5]. Logic Analysis - **Supply**: Coal - mining rates in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest have dropped significantly, but coal prices have rebounded due to stable demand. The methanol auction prices of mainstream enterprises in the northwest are firm, and coal - to - methanol profits are around 650 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant as the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. In terms of imports, the international methanol device operating rate has continued to rise, the US - dollar price has fallen slightly, and imports have returned to a positive spread. Iranian devices have gradually increased their loads, non - Iranian devices are operating stably, and the external - market operating rate has reached a new high this year [6]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, with a decline in the operating rate. However, the operating rate of MTO devices has increased, but some MTO devices are not operating at full capacity [6]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, and the basis is firm. The inventory of inland enterprises has shown a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Sell call options [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - Methanol overseas operating rates remain high, with significant subsequent arrival pressure. Xingxing MTO's maintenance for one month and MTO's route change due to maintenance have pushed up Jiangsu port inventories, keeping the port market weak. Inland coal - based methanol operating rates are still low but will gradually recover in early August. Traditional downstream demand shows some resilience, with inland factory inventories decreasing again, resulting in a stronger inland market compared to the port [2]. - The overall situation is an inland - strong and port - weak pattern [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and basis between different regions' spot and main futures [6][8][10]. - It also shows inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05 futures contracts, 05 and 09 futures contracts, and 09 and 01 futures contracts [21][23]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][29][30]. 3. Methanol Operating Rates and Inventories - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences such as between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, and other regional combinations [37][47][49]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][57]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show that the port market may be supported by coal reform in the short - term, but the expected concentrated import arrivals next week may limit the rise. The inland market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability, but policies have a positive impact on the mentality of inland operators. It is expected that the inland methanol market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend this week. Overall, it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Expected methanol price this week: It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and MA2509 will operate in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental analysis of methanol 2509: The port market may be affected by coal reform and import arrivals; the inland market has a weak supply - demand situation. The base - difference shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price; the inventory in ports has decreased; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average; the main - force position is net short with a decrease in short positions [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xiye; decreased methanol production in Iran and low port inventory; the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and the planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month; external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; expected concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operation; certain profit margins for coal - based methanol production and active sales; inventory accumulation in some producing - area factories due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China main port is 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2445 yuan/ton. The prices in different domestic regions vary, such as 2407 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 2230 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, etc. [8]. - **Futures market**: The futures closing price is 2419 yuan/ton, the registered warehouse receipts are 8834, and the effective forecast is 0. The base - difference is - 12 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 26 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spread structure**: The spread between Jiangsu and southern Shandong is 177 yuan/ton, and the spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 57 US dollars/ton [8]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, with a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Southwest have also changed [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 58.71 tons, with a decrease of 0.89 tons compared to the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plant maintenance**: Multiple plants in different regions such as the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and production reduction due to various reasons [57]. - **Foreign methanol plant operation**: Some plants in Iran are in the process of resuming production, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including normal operation, low - level operation, and planned shutdowns [58]. - **Methanol - olefin plant operation**: Methanol - olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and shutdown. For example, some plants in the Northwest and East China are in normal operation, while some are in maintenance or have been shut down for a long time [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 expected to trade in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port methanol market may experience inventory accumulation, potentially limiting price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show a neutral situation. The port market may see inventory build - up due to delayed imports, while the inland market is in a state of low supply and demand. The base price in Jiangsu indicates a premium for spot over futures. As of July 24, 2025, port inventories decreased, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are at a low level, new acetic acid plants have been put into operation, and there is a continuous expectation of external procurement from CTO plants in the northwest [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants like Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production, there is an expected concentration of vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined significantly, coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and active sales, and there is inventory accumulation in some production areas [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices of some regions such as Fujian and Jiangsu have decreased, while prices in Hebei have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis in Jiangsu has increased, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory in East and South China ports was 58.71 tons, a decrease of 0.89 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable inventory in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in regions such as Northwest, North, East, and Southwest are in a state of maintenance, including planned and unplanned maintenance, as well as production reduction and shutdown situations [55]. - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, while most plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, with some undergoing planned maintenance [56]. - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in normal operation, while some are in a state of maintenance or have uncertain restart times [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be mainly volatile this week, with MA2509 trading in the range of 2,400 - 2,500 yuan/ton. The port market may continue to fluctuate within a range, and the inland market has certain support on the supply side. There is no prominent contradiction in the fundamentals, and industry players are cautiously optimistic about the future market [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - The port market may continue to fluctuate within a range due to factors such as stable import arrivals, additional inflow to social warehouses, and potential impacts from tariff and crude oil news. The inland market has weakened demand during the traditional high - temperature off - season, and most downstream products are in a loss state, but the supply side is supported by continuous external procurement by CTO plants in the northwest and multiple device overhauls [4]. - The basis of the 09 contract is 10, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation. As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports decreased by 0.89 million tons compared to the previous period, and the overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 million tons to 32.58 million tons, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line, also positive. However, the main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a negative factor [4]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Positive factors**: Some devices have stopped production, the methanol production in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid production capacity has been put into operation, and CTO plants in the northwest are continuously procuring methanol externally [6]. - **Negative factors**: Some previously stopped devices have resumed production, there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at the ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE production has declined significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,490 yuan/ton. From July 18 to July 24, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 3.48%, and the futures price increased by 4.86%. The basis decreased by 32 yuan/ton [4][9][11]. - **Cost and profit**: From July 18 to July 24, the profit of coal - based methanol increased by 55 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 33 yuan/ton. The production costs of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid all increased to varying degrees, while the spot prices remained unchanged, resulting in a decrease in profits [20][33][36][39]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 58.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.89 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 million tons to 32.58 million tons [4]. - **External market price**: From July 18 to July 24, the CFR price of methanol in China increased by 1.11%, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged. The price difference between China and Southeast Asia increased by 3 US dollars/ton [24]. 4. Overhaul Status - **Domestic devices**: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises in the Northwest, North, East, and Southwest regions have carried out overhauls, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Ningxia Changyi, and others [55]. - **Foreign devices**: Some Iranian methanol production devices are in the process of restarting and recovery, and some devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, while some are under maintenance [56]. - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin - producing enterprises in the Northwest, East, and other regions have carried out overhauls or have planned overhauls, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a weak and volatile trend. Considering valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have recovered, but inland downstream profits are still poor and have room for improvement, making methanol relatively overvalued. In terms of drivers, there is a trend of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and inventory accumulation for methanol. If downstream MTO device maintenance is implemented, it will push the methanol price down. Even if it is not implemented, the current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes further inventory - building unlikely, and port inventory is likely to continue to increase, suppressing the spot price in East China. Therefore, it is recommended to short at high prices. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450, and shorting at high prices is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 16, 2025, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2361 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.71%); MA09 closed at 2367 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.80%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: The spot price in Taicang was 2377.50 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.31%); in Shandong, it was 2262.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton (0.33%); in Guangdong, it was 2390.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.21%); in Shaanxi, it was 2042.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2175.00 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2295.00 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1972.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.13%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was -56.50 yuan/ton, up 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiakesi Q5500 was 437.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan/ton (1.16%); the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 502.50 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 was 507.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan/ton (1.00%) [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol production profit was 404.50 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.53%); natural - gas - based methanol production profit remained unchanged at -590.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO was 434.20 yuan/ton, up 13.80 yuan/ton (3.28%); the profit of East China MTO was -674.57 yuan/ton, up 28.50 yuan/ton (4.05%); the profit of acetic acid was 314.70 yuan/ton, up 2.21 yuan/ton (0.71%); the profit of MTBE was 107.24 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton (38.84%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at -238.80 yuan/ton; the profit of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 466.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2367 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 448911 lots and an open interest of 654082, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. All contracts were traded during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton. Recently, a small number of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future were traded with an increase of 1.8%. In other Middle - East regions, the reference transaction price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.8 - 1% [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - The short - term trend of methanol is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short at high prices. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450, and shorting at high prices is recommended [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Methanol's unilateral driving force is limited. In terms of valuation, the profits of upstream raw materials are still high, while the comprehensive profits of downstream are relatively poor, and the valuation of methanol is relatively expensive. In terms of driving force, the current supply - demand driving force of methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. The previous geopolitical conflict intensified the shortage of port mobile supply, causing the basis in the East China region to rise significantly. Now the geopolitical situation has eased, most Iranian plants have restarted, and with the replenishment of inland and South American supplies, the shortage of port spot has been alleviated, and the ports are gradually accumulating inventory. It is expected that the operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2463 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, up 20 yuan/ton (0.82%) from July 11; MA05 closed at 2388 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.10%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2385 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan/ton (0.74%); in Shandong it was 2255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.22%); in Guangdong it was 2395 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); in Shaanxi it was 2042.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.61%); in Sichuan - Chongqing it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%); in Hubei it was 2305 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia it was 1975 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.75%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 78 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, down 2.5 yuan/ton from July 11 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.58%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 497.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (2.05%); the price of Yulin Q6000 was 497.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton (1.53%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price in Chongqing was 3.30 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 14, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 417.10 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.49%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **MTO Profits**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 440.40 yuan/ton, up 37.60 yuan/ton (9.33%); the profit of East China MTO was - 682.07 yuan/ton, down 32.50 yuan/ton (-5.00%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: The profit of acetic acid was 343.03 yuan/ton, down 44.02 yuan/ton (-11.37%); the profit of MTBE was 45.44 yuan/ton, up 61.80 yuan/ton (377.75%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 238.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of a certain product (erquge) was 466.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan/ton (-9.69%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated in a narrow range, opening at 2369 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 724,589 lots and an open interest of 655,520 lots, with increased volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: Today, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton, and there is currently a lack of bid and transaction information. For other regions in the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of far - month arriving cargoes is +0.5 - 1.5%, and the recent transactions of far - month arriving cargoes are at +0.85 - 1% [1]