Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term methanol prices may be weakly volatile due to high port inventories, supply pressure, and lack of downstream demand [1] - The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - MA01 dropped from 2328.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/30 to 2290.00 yuan/ton on 2025/10/9, a decrease of 1.63% [1] - MA05 decreased from 2362.00 yuan/ton to 2346.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.68% [1] - MA09 fell from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.39% [1] - Spot prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong also decreased, while Hubei's price increased by 1.28% [1] Upstream Costs - Coal prices such as Baotou Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 either decreased slightly or remained unchanged [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained stable [1] Profit Situations - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 2.99% from 334.80 yuan/ton to 324.80 yuan/ton [1] - Natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 422.00 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest MTO profit decreased by 55.86%, and East China MTO profit decreased by 0.76% [1] - Profits of downstream products like acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether either increased or decreased to varying degrees [1] Group 4: Important Information Domestic Information - The main methanol contract MA2601 opened at 2321 yuan/ton, closed at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 545,698 lots and open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] Foreign Information - Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country restarted. The overall loading volume in this country is around 243,000 tons, less than the same period last month [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The port experienced a decent de - stocking as the arrival was lower than expected and downstream pre - holiday pick - up was good, but the absolute inventory is still high. The future change mainly depends on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. The port's lower support relies on the window for re - flowing to the inland. - In the inland, the northwest prices remain strong. With mainstream CTO factories continuing to purchase at the beginning of the week and low inventory, the inland is stronger than the port. Traditional downstream has mixed performances, and coal - based methanol production restart is slow, waiting for a further increase in October [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts about methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as MA2601 - MA2605, MA2605 - MA2609, and MA2609 - MA2601 [7][23]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - It shows charts related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [27][36]. III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Charts display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated). The port total inventory is 1492190 tons (- 65580), and the inland factory inventory is 319940 tons (- 20540) [2][38]. IV. Regional Price Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 43 yuan/ton (- 5) [2][42]. V. Traditional Downstream Profit - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][61]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Inter - period: Go long on MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - Cross - variety: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report suggests paying attention to low - buying opportunities for methanol. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking power of MTO enterprises, considering the low spot price in East China, the approaching traditional downstream peak season, and the possible gas - restriction expectation in Iran, the port inventory pressure may decrease in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 increased from 2355.00 yuan/ton to 2359.00 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; MA05 rose from 2384.00 yuan/ton to 2388.00 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; MA09 increased from 2343.00 yuan/ton to 2345.00 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in Shandong, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged; prices in Taicang decreased by 0.33% to 2250.00 yuan/ton, in Guangdong dropped by 0.22% to 2260.00 yuan/ton, and in Shaanxi increased by 1.20% to 2105.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased by 11.50 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Bohai Rim Q5500 decreased by 0.95% to 520.00 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 dropped by 0.85% to 582.50 yuan/ton, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 2.07% to 592.50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 1.92% to 334.80 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 422.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profit**: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 43.56% to - 58.00 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 0.08% to - 622.57 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit increased by 3.29% to 566.17 yuan/ton, MTBE profit increased by 16.69% to 444.64 yuan/ton, and profits of formaldehyde and DME remained unchanged [1]. 4. Information - **Domestic Futures Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2360 yuan/ton, closing at 2359 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 426,001 lots, and open interest was 869,500, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1.75 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is restarting after a short - term shutdown and maintenance [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The coal end has weakened slightly, with weekend pithead coal prices falling. Iranian shipments remain fast, with around 870,000 tons shipped so far. Port inventory accumulation has been limited this week due to weather - delayed unloading, but significant accumulation is expected later. For the 01 contract, supply is clear. Although downstream profits have improved, the port inventory issue is difficult to resolve. The reverse flow window between the port and the inland remains open, and inland MTO continues to purchase externally, providing support. Non - Iranian Malaysian plants have faced setbacks in resuming operations and are further delayed, with non - Iranian imports expected to be slightly reduced to 550,000 - 600,000 tons this month, but a clear reduction time is hard to determine. It is not recommended to operate before the National Day, and the short - put option can be held [2]. - The short - term trend of methanol is range - bound, with the 2601 contract expected to operate in the range of 2330 - 2380. The previous short - put option on the 2601 contract should continue to be held [13]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coal prices at the pithead have declined, and Iranian methanol shipments are rapid. Port inventory will likely increase significantly later. The 01 contract has supply clarity, but port inventory is a problem. Inland support exists due to external purchases by MTO. Non - Iranian imports may be slightly reduced [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Base - Spread Strategy**: The price of the methanol 01 contract has risen to 2370, while the inland market has weakened. The large premium structure of the 01 contract remains unresolved, and the outcome is yet to be determined [10]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: As Iranian shipments have accelerated, the market doubts whether early gas restrictions will occur this year. Methanol prices have been declining, and the 1 - 5 spread has been in a reverse - carry situation [7][10]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of methanol inland inventory, including in the Northwest, at methanol plants in the south and north lines, and the national factory inventory, net factory inventory, and northwest pending shipments [18][20]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Various charts display the seasonal trends of methanol port inventory in different regions of China, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, and Guangxi, as well as the inventory in Taicang and the port arrival volume in different areas [22][38][43] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Forecast**: The price range of methanol is predicted to be 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [51]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting futures, buying put options, and selling call options [51]. - **Positive Information**: Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to prevent over - capacity risks in the coal - to - methanol industry. The second - phase 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong had its mid - construction handover this week, with the earliest投料 in late November. Iranian plant operating rates have declined to around 74% [55][56]. - **Negative Information**: Iran has shipped 700,000 tons of methanol [57]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Not provided in the document Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic methanol market has been oscillating this week, with the inland production area slightly stronger than the sales area. The port market followed the futures, showing a weak oscillation and then a small rebound. The 1 - 5 spread weakened due to high - speed Iranian shipments but rebounded on Friday due to an unexpected Iranian plant shutdown [59][62]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - Charts show the price trends of coal at the Ordos pithead and Qinhuangdao Port, as well as the mainstream prices of methanol in the Lunan market and Taicang, and the number of warehouse receipts [65][66][69]. 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts display the profit and cost trends of different methanol production methods, such as coal - to - methanol in Shandong, coke - oven gas - to - methanol, and natural - gas - to - methanol in different regions, as well as the profits of downstream products like MTO, acetic acid, and MTBE [77][78][117]. 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Start - up Rate Tracking in the Industry Chain - Charts show the production and start - up rate trends of different methanol production methods and downstream products, including coal - single - methanol, coke - oven gas - to - methanol, and MTO [93][94][101]. 4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - Charts present the seasonal trends of methanol imports from different countries, the outer - market structure of methanol, and the import profit of Iranian methanol [128]. 4.5 Overseas Start - up Tracking - Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production, and start - up rate of overseas methanol plants, including those in Iran and non - Iranian regions [135][137][139]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and inventory data of methanol from January to December 2025 [143]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - This week, some domestic methanol plants have restarted, while others have had maintenance or breakdowns. For example, Shandong Yankuang Guohong has restarted with double furnaces, and some plants in the Southwest and Northwest have restarted or had short - term shutdowns [144]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Downstream MTO plants such as Xingxing and Chengzhi have resumed or increased production. New MTO projects like the second - phase of Lianhong are advancing, and inland pre - holiday stocking is active [145].

甲醇日报 | 2025-09-26 港口库存回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤475元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润660元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2085元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差329元/吨（-5），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2360元/吨（+0），鲁南 基差204元/吨（-5）；河南2205元/吨（-5），河南基差49元/吨（-10）；河北2245元/吨（+0），河北基差149元/吨（-5）。 隆众内地工厂库存319940吨（-20540），西北工厂库存208000吨（-17500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单273022吨（+39246）， 西北工厂待发订单154000吨（+38300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2252元/吨（-3），太仓基差-104元/吨（-8），CFR中国262美元/吨（+3），华东进口价差-31元/ 吨（-11），常州甲醇2455元/吨；广东甲醇2255元/吨（+0），广东基差-101元/吨（-5）。隆众港口总库存1492190吨 （-65580），江苏港口库存779000吨（-8000），浙江港口库存253700 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The inventory build - up in ports has slowed down, and the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing has supported the recovery of port demand. However, the arrival pressure persists, and the high - inventory pressure at ports may continue in October, with the port basis remaining weak. The subsequent change mainly depends on when the Iranian winter inspection plan is announced. The Iranian methanol production rate is still high, and the planned shipping volume from September to October is still significant. The supply pressure from non - Iranian sources has decreased due to the Ma'anshan Oil refinery maintenance. The lower support at ports still relies on the window for methanol to flow back to the inland [2]. - In the inland, the transactions in the northwest are still good, and mainstream CTO factories are still purchasing methanol. The coal - based methanol production rate will gradually increase in the second half of the month. The rate of rebuilding the low - level inventory of inland methanol factories is still slow, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. Among traditional downstream industries, the high inventory of acetic acid has dragged down its production rate, the improvement in MTBE exports has led to a low - level recovery of its production rate, and the production rate of formaldehyde has remained stable [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][8][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures present the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference of Taicang methanol (excluding additional points), and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [27][30][34] III. Methanol Production Rate, Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P production rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the overall methanol production rate in China (including integrated plants) [37][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream industries, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][56]

Group 1 - The methanol market is facing downward pressure due to high supply and weak demand, making it difficult for prices to rise in the near future [1][4] - Methanol imports to China are expected to remain high, with September imports estimated at 1.4 to 1.45 million tons, driven by increased shipments from Iran and other regions [3][4] - Domestic methanol production has decreased due to maintenance of several plants, with an average operating rate of 79.39% and a weekly production drop of 10.61 million tons [2][4] Group 2 - Despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, the recovery in olefin demand is slower than expected, with average operating rates for coal-to-olefin plants at 82.88% [4] - The port inventory of methanol in East and South China has increased significantly, reaching 1.3298 million tons, which adds to the supply pressure [3][4] - Overall, the domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance, leading to a continued bearish trend in prices [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着近日美联储 9 月降息预期兑现以后，本周一夜盘国内甲醇期 货 2601 合约维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.17%至 2349 元/吨。预计本 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The current methanol spot price is in a low - level oscillation. Due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland, the upside space is limited. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient because of high absolute port inventory levels and weak restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also low, the room for further decline is limited. With the upcoming traditional downstream peak season, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On September 17, 2025, MA01 closed at 2376 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 remained unchanged at 2397 yuan/ton; MA09 closed at 2371 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton, while prices in Guangdong decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) to 2275 yuan/ton, and prices in Inner Mongolia decreased by 15 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) to 2120 yuan/ton. Prices in some regions such as Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b) Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the price of Bohai Rim Q5500 increased by 10 yuan/ton (1.99%) to 512.5 yuan/ton, the price of Datong Q5500 increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (1.32%) to 575 yuan/ton, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (2.16%) to 592.5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (- 1.42%) to 436.3 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 362 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of East China MTO increased by 44.5 yuan/ton (7.10%) to - 582.57 yuan/ton, the profit of acetic acid increased by 24.15 yuan/ton (5.03%) to 504.04 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE increased by 93.6 yuan/ton (31.46%) to 391.12 yuan/ton [1]. d) Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 was weakly oscillating, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2376 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 387,439 lots, and the open interest was 836,608 lots, with shrinking volume and increasing positions [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants in Southeast Asia with a total capacity of 2.6 million tons are under maintenance, and a small amount of Chinese goods are exported to Southeast Asia [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 1 ࠠݺܶठ 近期多空分析 利多： ࡉीһי 2 ܨݤׁޯ 3 4 ߳ҒࢩӐ 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：供需逻辑不同预计本周国内甲醇呈现区域性走势，整体或呈北强南弱走势。内地方面，产区烯烃需求明显 增量致使区域内甲醇供应紧张，供需紧平衡的利好驱动下，本周产区预计走高概率较大。销区方面，下游有节前备货需 求，以及运费仍有上涨空间，贸易商有惜售情绪，共同支撑下游到货价格走高。但套利空间打开后，港口货源可倒流内 地，制约销区甲醇价格上涨幅度。港口方面，伊朗10月缺气检修，且伊朗busher一套年产165万吨甲醇装置上周临时停 车，后续进口货源逐步减少，远月强预期；同时港口主力烯烃装置近期重启叠加十一假期前 ...