Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Group 1 - The current silver price is $36.76 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.64 and $36.86 during the day [1][2] - The strong U.S. dollar is putting downward pressure on silver prices, as investors flock to the dollar amid trade uncertainties [3][4] - The market is facing unpredictability due to conflicting ideologies between Trump's protectionist policies and Musk's advocacy for free trade, which may complicate silver's role as a hedge [4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if silver fails to hold the short-term pivot at $36.30, it could lead to a price drop to the major support range of $35.40 to $34.87 [5] - The market is currently experiencing profit-taking pressure, similar to gold, as investors reassess their positions ahead of clarity on U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve actions [5] - The medium-term trend remains supported by the 50-day moving average at $34.50 and the 200-day moving average at $32.40, maintaining a "buy on dips" strategy [5]

Group 1 - The strong US dollar has led to a decline in gold prices, reaching a near one-week low as investors await trade details before the tariff deadline [1] - Recent strong US economic data, including robust job growth in June, has cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, further strengthening the dollar and causing a slight pullback in gold prices [1] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for gold remains bullish, although caution is advised for potential significant corrections in the near term [1] Group 2 - Following the release of non-farm payroll data, market sentiment has cooled as negotiations in the Middle East resume, contributing to uncertainty in the market [3] - Gold prices opened lower and experienced a significant drop, reaching a low of 3295, with an intraday decline of nearly 50 USD, indicating a deep pullback [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified between 3292-3288, while resistance is seen at 3315-3322, suggesting potential short-term trading strategies [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and strong economic data from the US, which has reduced the urgency for interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market is awaiting details on tariffs and is particularly focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes to analyze future monetary policy [3] - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the overall trend for gold remains upward, as real yields may continue to decline in the context of potential Fed policy easing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices opened lower, with a significant drop to 3306 and further down to 3295, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [6] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to face downward pressure unless it breaks above the resistance level of 3310, with a potential target of 3438 if upward momentum is achieved [6] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish scenarios possible, but the bearish outlook appears stronger at this moment [6]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed strong performance, with 147,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims remained low at 233,000, indicating resilience in the labor market, which boosts the economic outlook for the U.S. [1] - This data has strengthened the U.S. dollar and suppressed gold prices, while also reducing market expectations for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned countries against delaying trade negotiations, suggesting that tariffs could rise to levels seen on April 2, affecting around 100 countries with at least 10% reciprocal tariffs [1] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the House indicates a trend towards expansionary fiscal policy, potentially supporting the economy and lowering safe-haven demand [1] - The Atlanta Fed President indicated that the U.S. economy may experience prolonged high inflation, reinforcing market expectations for sustained high interest rates, which increases the holding cost of gold [1] - Discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Middle East and Ukraine, along with plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, have eased geopolitical risks, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - The gold price has shown a bearish trend after retreating from its high, currently facing pressure from the non-farm data, trading below the 20 and 60-period moving averages [4] - The price is under pressure from the middle Bollinger Band, with potential further resistance from the upper Bollinger Band as time progresses [4] - The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a possible short-term pullback in gold prices [4] Trading Strategy - A short position is recommended around 3338.2, with a stop loss at 3345.0 and targets set at 3311.5 to 3283.5 [5] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is currently in a weekly oscillation phase, with the recent non-farm data exerting downward pressure on bullish momentum [8] - The price is facing strong resistance near the upper boundary of the weekly oscillation and the previous high of 37.06, indicating potential obstacles for upward movement [8] - The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone, suggesting weakness in the market [8] Trading Strategy for Silver - A short position is suggested around 36.97, with a stop loss at 37.20 and targets set at 36.49 to 36.16 [9]

Price Trends - The overall gold price in the domestic market remains above 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices from various brands showing slight fluctuations [1][4] - The highest price is from Liufu Gold at 1005 yuan per gram, while the lowest is from Shanghai China Gold at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 36 yuan per gram [1][3] Brand Price Summary - Liufu Gold: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [1] - Zhou Dafu: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [1] - Zhou Liufu: 985 yuan/gram (up 7 yuan) [1] - Lao Miao: 999 yuan/gram (down 3 yuan) [1] - Lao Fengxiang: 1003 yuan/gram (down 3 yuan) [3] - Chao Hongji: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [3] - Zhou Shengsheng: 1004 yuan/gram (down 6 yuan) [3] - Cai Bai: 978 yuan/gram (no change) [3] - Shanghai China Gold: 969 yuan/gram (no change) [3] International Market Influence - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on gold prices [6] - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at 3342.15 USD/ounce, reflecting a 0.48% increase [6] - The market is closely monitoring the implications of U.S. tariff announcements, which could have both short-term negative and long-term positive effects on gold [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the U.S. labor market, with June's non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000 [3] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3% [3] - The labor force participation rate slightly declined from 62.4% to 62.3% [3] - Average hourly earnings year-on-year growth fell from 3.8% in May to 3.7% in June, although it was above the expected 3.6% [3] Group 2 - The ISM Services PMI for June rose from 49.9 in May to 50.8, surpassing the expected 50.5 [4] - Strong employment data suggests a decreased likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates sooner than expected, leading to a stronger dollar and increased pressure on the gold market [4] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold during the July meeting increased from 76.2% to 95.3% following the employment report [4] - Investors now predict a 53 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, down from an earlier estimate of 66 basis points [4] Group 3 - Silver futures in the domestic market showed a short-term bullish trend, with prices reported at 8,914 yuan per kilogram, up 0.53% [5] - The highest price reached was 8,950 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest was 8,877 yuan per kilogram [5] - Resistance levels are identified between 8,976 and 8,986 yuan, with support levels between 8,644 and 8,654 yuan [5]

摘要周五（7月4日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，最新黄金交投于3330美元关口附近，非农数据的意 外向好，美联储7月降息9月降息概率也下降，美元和美债收益率齐涨，美元走强对黄金市场形成了显著 压力，周四黄金日线探高回落，日线收盘小阴K线。 强劲的就业数据直接推高了美元和美债收益率。美元指数周四上涨0.34%，报97.12，而两年期美债收益 率攀升9.7个基点至3.789%，十年期美债收益率也上升至4.346%。美元走强使得黄金对海外买家的吸引 力下降，因为以美元计价的黄金变得更加昂贵。 市场对美联储7月降息的预期几乎归零，9月降息25个基点的概率也从92.5%降至67%。这一转变直接导 致了黄金价格的回落，投资者对黄金的避险需求暂时被压制。 【技术面分析】 黄金日线探高回落，日线收盘小阴K线，本周的节奏整体保持在高位拉锯震荡，并没有持续性的单边， 美元短期强弱不定，也限制了黄金的波动空间，反复探高回落，破高无力，回调又缺少下破力度，关键 的区间未打破，今日周线收官，从周线来看，黄金行情还是震荡收尾的节奏，月线仍在试探摸高上影 线。 日线图上，黄金从一个月低点触底反弹，刷新一周新高后涨势遇阻，保持震荡走势运行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have dropped to a new low since June, primarily influenced by a combination of factors including easing geopolitical tensions and a decline in risk aversion [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decrease in tensions in the Middle East, resulting in a withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets such as U.S. stocks and oil stocks [1] - The global stock markets have collectively risen, with major U.S. indices increasing by over 1%, while oil prices have plummeted by more than 7%, further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Dollar Impact - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been postponed, as Chairman Powell indicated the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation, leading to a shift in market focus from a July rate cut to a September cut with a probability exceeding 70% [3] - The U.S. dollar has shown a phase of strength, supported by resilient economic data, which has increased the holding costs of gold priced in dollars, thereby exerting downward pressure on international gold prices [4] Group 3: Technical Selling and Market Sentiment - A technical breakdown occurred when gold prices fell below critical support levels (e.g., $3,300 per ounce), triggering algorithmic trading sell-offs and exacerbating downward pressure [5] - Speculative funds have taken profits after gold prices surged due to Middle Eastern conflict expectations, with prices reaching $3,476 per ounce on June 16 before the ceasefire [6] Group 4: Domestic Gold Price Trends - Domestic gold jewelry prices have dropped below 1,000 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang quoting prices between 998-1,006 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily decline of up to 14 yuan per gram [7] - The wholesale price in the Shenzhen market has also decreased to around 768 yuan per gram, following international trends [7] Group 5: Future Key Variables - The stability of the Middle East ceasefire is crucial; any resurgence of conflict could lead to a renewed increase in safe-haven demand [8] - Future signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Powell's subsequent speeches and July's non-farm payroll data, will be pivotal in shaping rate cut expectations [9] - Long-term support remains from global central bank gold purchases, which surged by 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 18 consecutive months [10] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - A short-term wait-and-see approach is advised, focusing on whether the support levels of $3,250-$3,300 can hold [11] - For long-term positioning, gold remains a tool for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation on dips [12]

Group 1: Dollar Strength and Market Impact - The recent strengthening of the dollar is viewed as a significant factor affecting global liquidity, potentially leading to a capital outflow from markets like Hong Kong when the dollar is strong [2][6] - Despite analysts predicting a decline in the dollar, its value is fundamentally tied to U.S. credit, and recent geopolitical events have prompted a reassessment of the dollar's worth globally [4][6] - The U.S. stock market remains the best-performing market globally, and a stable or rising dollar could lead to a liquidity retreat back to the U.S. [6] Group 2: Real Estate Market Concerns - A recent report from a foreign investment bank suggests that demand in the Chinese real estate market may be halved, which is alarming given that 60% of Chinese households' wealth is tied up in real estate [7][8] - The decline in property value expectations may dampen consumer confidence, but it is noted that investors who buy both real estate and stocks are primarily the ones affected [8] - As real estate loses its appeal, funds are likely to shift towards the stock market, as indicated by a notable change in ETF fund flows since June 13 [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Institutional Behavior - The current market is characterized by volatility, which may frustrate retail investors, but this fluctuation is seen as institutional investors testing the waters [10][12] - There is a significant cognitive gap between retail investors, who focus on price movements, and institutional investors, who pay attention to trading behaviors [12][19] - The example of Guizhou Moutai illustrates that institutional holdings do not guarantee stock price increases, as seen with the "zombie positions" where institutions hold shares but do not actively trade them [13][15] Group 4: Quantitative Data Insights - Quantitative data serves as a critical tool for understanding market dynamics, with active institutional trading during periods of volatility being a key indicator of stock price direction [16][18] - The market is described as an information battleground, where understanding the essence of capital flows is crucial for making informed investment decisions [18]