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贵金属日报:高位震荡-20250509
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 06:21
贵金属日报:高位震荡 夏莹莹(投资咨询证号:Z0016569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月9日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场延续震荡调整,因美联储利率决议及会后声明传递偏鹰信号不着急降息及美指明显回 升,以及美英贸易谈判缓和避险情绪。接下来焦点转向周内中美贸易谈判。最终黄金2506合约收报 3310.4美元/盎司,-2.4%;美白银2507合约收报于32.605美元/盎司,-0.57%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合 约收报790.78元/克,-1.41%;SHFE白银2506合约收8094元/千克,-1.78%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示,美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为83.5%,降息25个基点的概率为 16.5%;美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为29.1%,累计降息25个基点的概率为60.1%,累计降息50个基 点的概率为10.7%;美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.2%,累计降息25个基点的概率为42.1%,累计 降息50个基点的概率为39.4%,累计降息75个基点的概率为6.2%。长线基金看,SPDR黄金ETF持仓日增 2.01吨至93 ...
重磅,关税大利空,黄金大跌!多头还有救吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 04:47
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are heavily influenced by trade news and tariffs, with significant daily price movements observed, including a drop of $126 in one day [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a significant drop of $126, with daily price movements exceeding $100 becoming common since April [1]. - The price of gold fluctuated between $3202 and $3414, with a notable drop below $3360 leading to a decline of $40 [2]. - The market is characterized by a "super sweep" trend, with alternating bullish and bearish pressures making it difficult for traders to establish a clear direction [3]. Group 2: Price Levels and Trading Strategy - The gold price has breached the $3300 mark, with expectations to test the $3200 level, which is a critical support area [5]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3320-23, with a potential for further declines if this level is not maintained [5]. - The strategy involves shorting at resistance levels while monitoring support at $3270-65 and $3240 [5]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The U.S. dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark, indicating a potential for further rebounds, while the stock market outlook remains bearish [7]. - Recent trade news has provided short-term bullish sentiment, but the overall market is expected to face downward pressure [9].
翁富豪:5.9美英贸易协议与地缘缓和施压金价,今天黄金操作策略分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 23:51
现货黄金在美联储利率决议落地后,延续了上周的回调态势。美联储官员在讲话中着重强调了经济韧性,此立场大幅削弱了市场对于短期内降息的预期。由 于黄金属于无息资产,降息预期的降低直接导致其相对吸引力下滑。与此同时金价波动还受到美英即将公布贸易协议这一消息的驱动。此外特朗普宣布与胡 塞武装达成停火协议,市场对地缘风险降级的预期升温。多重因素共同作用,使得本周初以来持续发酵的市场避险情绪显著降温,进而对金价形成下行压 力。 从技术层面分析,黄金价格当前处于一个较为明显的箱体整理区间。短线支撑位处于 3310 美元附近,该位置是前期价格突破高点后的回踩确认区域,具备 较强的技术支撑意义。若金价有效跌破该支撑位,极有可能下探至 3300 美元的关键支撑区域,一旦该区域失守,或将打开新的下跌趋势通道,翁富豪提醒 大家需对此予以重点关注。 小时级盘面显示,历史高位至本周高位形成下行趋势线,3200 - 3310 构成上行趋势线,当前金价在两条趋势线形成的收敛区间上方交投,虽显弱势,但多 头趋势通道未破。短线需留意 4H 中轨 3355 - 3360 附近反压,若金价拉低后企稳于该区间上方,看涨信号增强;若持续受压于此,或有一定 ...
A股:高开低走!盘后证监会继续放大招,周四(5.8)或将放量大涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 11:23
5月8日,A股市场在利好消息中走出"高开低走"的纠结行情。沪指全天振幅超1.5%,深成指与创业板指盘中一度翻绿,最终勉强收红。两市成交额突破1.46 万亿元,较昨日再放量的1300亿元,显示资金活跃度不减。但这份"热闹"背后,市场情绪却透着几分谨慎——利好兑现不彻底、外围不确定性、做空机制未 受限,三大矛盾点正牵制着反弹步伐。 利好当前,A股为何"犹豫"? 今日盘面呈现三大反常现象: 政策力度超预期,市场反应却平淡。尽管证监会午间发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》,从降费率、强监管到提权益投资规模,条条直指行业痛 点,但资金并未因此疯狂追涨。 指数红盘,个股赚钱效应不足。上涨个股虽超2800只,但涨跌中位数仅0.3%,半数投资者账面未跑赢指数。 外资动向矛盾。北向资金全天净买入32亿元,但尾盘集合竞价阶段却出现集中撤单,显示海外资金对美联储利率决议仍存顾虑。 这种"纠结"背后有三重逻辑: 点位压力:沪指已逼近3350点压力位,此处堆积着2023年8月以来的套牢盘,解套抛压需时间消化; 外围干扰:明日凌晨美联储将公布最新利率决议,尽管市场普遍预期维持利率不变,但鲍威尔的表态仍可能引发全球资产波动; 做空漏洞 ...
瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250508
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 08:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is entering a new stage with slowing supply growth, steadily recovering demand, and positive consumption expectations, and the fundamental support is gradually strengthening. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 77,330 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,389.5 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 550 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper was 179,692 lots, up 589 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper were 7,243 lots, up 6,096 lots. LME copper inventory was 193,975 tons, down 1,650 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 89,307 tons, down 27,446 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 86,125 tons, down 825 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants were 19,540 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,435 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,430 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 113 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 100 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 1,105 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was 21.65 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.39 million tons, up 21.1 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 42.61 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.09 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 68,710 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 69,410 yuan/metal ton, unchanged. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 1.248 billion tons, up 0.006 billion tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 470,000 tons, up 50,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 66,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.1252 billion tons, down 0.1476 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 95.622 billion yuan, up 52.001 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 1,990.417 billion yuan, up 918.443 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,197,199,900 pieces, down 80,202,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.52%, down 12.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 24.49%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 15.51%, down 0.0022; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 0.88, up 0.0887 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies. The CSRC will fully support Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi - "stabilization fund". The head of the Financial Regulatory Administration said three measures would be introduced to support the stability and activity of the capital market. In March, the total import and export volume of automobile commodities was 23.82 billion dollars, with exports growing well. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Powell said he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates [2]
瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250508
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 08:53
| | 撰写人:王福辉 从业资格证号:F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19,510.00 | +45.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,794.00 | +90.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 100.00 | +35.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -5.00 | -2.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 192,703.00 | -2108.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 276,909.00 | -20851.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 156,900.00 | -4000.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 285,278.00 | -12598.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价(日,美元/吨) ...
贵金属日报:美维持利率不变,贵金属高位震荡-20250508
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 04:34
【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场明显调整,因美联储利率决议及会后声明传递偏鹰信号不着急降息及美指回升。最终 黄金2506合约收报3372.6美元/盎司,-1.47%;美白银2507合约收报于32.61美元/盎司,-2.31%。 SHFE黄金2506主力合约收报803.5元/克,+0.88%;SHFE白银2506合约收8252元/千克,+0.17%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示,美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为76.1%,降息25个基点的概率为 22.9%,降息50个基点的概率为1%。美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为27.3%,累计降息25个基点的概 率为57%,累计降息50个基点的概率为15%,累计降息75个基点的概率为0.6%。长线基金看,SPDR黄 金ETF持仓日减0.29吨至937.67吨;iShares白银ETF持仓维持在13958.7吨。库存方面,SHFE银库存日减 18.8吨至941吨;截止4月30日当周的SGX白银库存周减13.6吨至1626.5吨。 贵金属日报:美维持利率不变 贵金属高位震荡 夏莹莹(投资咨询证号:Z0016569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1 ...
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-05-07)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-08 02:17
Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]
金荣中国:美联储利率决议如期落地,金价高位回落维持短线震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 02:02
行情回顾: 国际黄金周三(5月7日)冲高回落小幅收跌,开盘价3395.33美元/盎司,最高价3438.22美元/盎司,最低价 3360.06美元/盎司,收盘价3385.16美元/盎司。 消息面: 周四凌晨公布的美国至5月7日美联储利率决定为4.5%,符合市场预期,与前值一致。 美联储FOMC声明显示,以12-0的投票比例通过将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变,为连续第三次按兵不 动。失业率已稳定,劳动力市场坚韧。通胀率仍略高;高失业率和高通胀的风险已经上升。前景的不确定 性"进一步增加"。尽管净出口波动影响了数据,但经济活动仍继续以"稳健的速度"扩张。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示,目前的不确定性情况要求美联储继续等待,所有委员都支持等待;特朗普要求降息根 本不会影响我们的工作;等待的成本很低,认为美联储不需要急于调整利率;在某些情况下今年降息是合适 的,在某些情况下降息是不合适的,不能自信地说我知道合适的利率路径;当事态发展时,美联储可以酌情迅 速采取行动。短期通胀预期有所上升,长期通胀预期与目标保持一致;避免持续通胀将取决于关税的规模、时 间和通胀预期。如果像宣布的那样大幅增加关税持续下去,将会出现更高的 ...