新华财经纽约5月1日电（记者刘亚南）随着今年一季度美国经济出现负增长，美国经济衰退看起来正在 迫近。美国股市在近期的反弹动能有限，后市有很较大可能再次探底，短期难以摆脱弱势。 经济衰退或在上半年确认 尽管市场研究机构认为，美国经济可能在今年年中出现衰退，但在最近几日，一季度GDP负增长开始成 为多家研究机构的关注话题。 鉴于进口消费品的增加导致商品贸易逆差增加，高盛集团把今年一季度美国GDP年化环比增速从此前的 萎缩0.2%调整为萎缩0.8%。 投资银行杰弗瑞集团（Jefferies）则把一季度美国GDP增速从0.9%调整为-0.2%。法国巴黎银行（BNP- Paribas)把美国一季度GDP增长预期下调一个百分点，至-0.6%。摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家迈克尔·加 彭（Michael Gapen）则认为，美国一季度GDP将收缩1.5%。 美国商务部30日早间发布的首次预估数据印证了以上几家研究机构的判断，美国经济在一季度出现负增 长。数据显示，美国一季度GDP环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%，弱于市场预期的0.2%和2024年四季度的 2.4%，这是2022年一季度以来首次出现负增长。 数据还显示，美国一季度商品 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，德国经济在2025年伊始恢复了扩张。德国统计机构Destatis称，一季度德国GDP增 长了0.2%，扭转了去年最后一个季度0.2%的降幅。经济学家们曾预计，随着实际收入增长和通胀降 温，德国将在整个2025年实现复苏，但德国的出口经济将成为受特朗普关税打击最严重的经济体之一， 目前美国对来自欧盟的汽车、钢铁和铝征收25%的进口关税，对大多数其他商品征收10%的关税。本周 三，汽车制造商梅赛德斯-奔驰成为在当前贸易不确定性下撤回2025年指引的又一家公司。 德国经济一季度微幅增长，美关税威胁压制复苏前景 ...

Group 1 - Mark Mobius holds 95% of his fund in cash, indicating a cautious approach due to trade uncertainties that may last up to six months [1] - Mobius believes that emerging markets like India will perform well once uncertainties stabilize, but he emphasizes the need to wait for clearer conditions [1] - A recent Bank of America survey shows that investor sentiment regarding the economic outlook is at its lowest in 30 years, reflecting increased risk due to tariff tensions [1] Group 2 - Mobius manages approximately $300 million in assets and expects India to benefit from the U.S. seeking to reshape global supply chains away from reliance on China [3] - He is optimistic about Indian stocks related to software and electronic hardware, while also holding a small amount of S&P 500 index funds to track the market [3] - Mobius anticipates that the S&P 500 index will recover by the end of the year as investor confidence in U.S. investments improves [3]

Group 1 - Mark Mobius, a veteran emerging markets investor, has kept 95% of his fund in cash due to ongoing trade uncertainties, indicating a cautious approach to investment in the next four to six months [1] - There is a significant influx of capital into emerging market bonds, particularly after the U.S. tariffs were announced, which has diminished the appeal of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven [1][2] - Emerging market local currency bonds are experiencing increased demand, particularly from investors diversifying away from U.S. assets, with countries like Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa seeing heightened interest [2] Group 2 - Investors are beginning to view emerging markets differently, with some countries demonstrating sufficient fiscal buffers to withstand growth concerns amid expectations of a U.S. recession [3] - The performance of emerging market local currency fixed income assets tends to outperform other assets when the U.S. dollar is under pressure, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [3] - The recent underperformance of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries has sparked interest among U.S. investors in overseas opportunities, particularly in emerging markets [4] Group 3 - While there is optimism regarding emerging market local currency bonds, it is still too early to determine the exact direction of global investor bond positions [5] - Some investors are reallocating from long-term U.S. Treasuries to shorter-duration bonds, reflecting a shift in investment strategy following the recent tariff announcements [5] - A potential change in the perception of U.S. Treasuries as the ultimate safe-haven asset could lead to a significant reevaluation of asset allocation strategies among investors [5]

IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：贸易问题带来的不确定性代价很高。 ...

Group 1 - The CEO of Sika stated that the optimism in the U.S. construction industry is being affected by trade uncertainties related to Trump [1] - The construction sector is experiencing mixed sentiments due to ongoing trade discussions and potential tariffs [1] - Sika's performance may be influenced by these external factors, impacting their market outlook [1] Group 2 - The overall sentiment in the construction industry remains cautious amid the trade policy changes [1] - Companies in the construction sector are closely monitoring developments in trade negotiations [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs could lead to fluctuations in material costs and project timelines [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs and countermeasures on various industries, highlighting the need for a trading mindset in consumer stocks [3] - It notes significant fluctuations in global asset prices due to trade uncertainties, with a focus on the quantitative monitoring of trade uncertainty and global panic trading levels [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The shipping industry is directly affected by the tariffs, with a notable increase in container shipping volume from Asia to North America during the 2018 trade war, which saw a 6.63% year-on-year increase and a 175.77% rise in freight rates [5] - The report indicates that the shipping demand on the US route is exposed to high tariff risks, with no buffer period for the implementation of counter-tariffs, leading to a decline in export demand and potential impacts on shipping schedules and port efficiency [8] Group 3: Company Analysis - China Energy Construction (601868.SH) shows steady revenue growth with a significant expansion in new energy installations, projecting net profits of 9.3 billion, 10 billion, and 10.5 billion for 2025-2027, with respective growth rates of 10%, 8%, and 5% [10] - Haier Biomedical (688139.SH) reported a slight revenue increase of 0.13% in 2024, with a net profit of 367 million, although it experienced a decline of 9.71% year-on-year; however, the company is expected to see a recovery in 2025 with projected revenues of 2.623 billion, 3.023 billion, and 3.479 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 14.9%, 15.2%, and 15.1% respectively [11][12]