美国最高法院将于1月21日就特朗普是否有权解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克进行口头辩论。特朗普指控库克 多年前在抵押贷款文件上作假陈述，但她未受任何指控。 分析人士认为，特朗普此举意在安插支持大幅降息的鸽派理事，削弱美联储独立性。奥康奈尔表示，若 裁决有利于总统，将重创美联储公信力，利好黄金并可能压低美元。 尽管口头辩论即将举行，但最终判决不会很快出台，库克短期内将继续留任。目前美联储虽已降息，但 鲍威尔强调12月进一步行动并非必然，市场预计降息概率为65%。 摘要周四(11月13日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4223一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4231.65美元/ 盎司，上涨0.87%，最高触及4233.94美元/盎司，最低下探4179.49美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏 向上涨走势。 周四(11月13日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4223一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4231.65美元/盎 司，上涨0.87%，最高触及4233.94美元/盎司，最低下探4179.49美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 上涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储独立性受威胁的担忧，已推动金价创历史新高。StoneX分析师奥康奈尔认为， ...

编辑：吴丽莉 杨静仪 摩根大通周三发布的一份报告中表示，预计央行和消费者将在价格下跌期间成为可靠的买家，并预计到 2026年第四季度金价将超过每盎司5000美元。 渣打银行则继续预计，今年第四季度黄金均价为每盎司4000美元。 内容来源：中国基金报 在此前一度跌破4100美元之后，现货黄金再度拉升！ 北京时间11月13日早，现货黄金升破4200美元/盎司。截至记者发稿，现货黄金报4202.648美元/盎司， 日内涨0.19%。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4202 648 " | | | 4194.605 总量 | | 0 | | +8.043 | | +0.19% 升盘 | 4195.020 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4206.670 持 仓 | | 0 | 外盘 | 0 | | 最低价 | 4194.590 增 仓 | | 0 | 内 盘 | 0 | | से स्थ | 五日 日K | | 周K 月K | 更多 | (0) | | 叠 ...

瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示："所有人都在等待政府'停摆'的更明确消息，以及美国数据何时出 炉。就黄金价格而言，我们仍认为处于上升趋势。结构方面没有任何改变。" 摩根大通周三发布的一份报告中表示，预计央行和消费者将在价格下跌期间成为可靠的买家，并预计到 2026年第四季度金价将超过每盎司5000美元。 渣打银行则继续预计，今年第四季度黄金均价为每盎司4000美元。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4202 648 "F | | | 4194.605 总量 | | 0 | | +8.043 | +0.19% 开盘 | | 4195.020 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4206.670 持 | 世 | 0 | 外 盘 | 0 | | 最低价 | 4194.590 增 | 色 | 0 | 内 盘 | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 日K | | 周K | 重念 | (0) | | 量加 | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 42 ...

11月10日早盘，黄金市场出现惊人变化。伦敦金一度冲到 4056.64 美元 / 盎司，单日涨 42.26 美元，涨 幅 1.05%；国内上海黄金 T+D 突破 928 元 / 克，较前一天涨 12.36 元，涨跌幅 1.35%。 其次，从技术面看，4050 美元 / 盎司关键压力位的突破，触发了机构和投资者的 "自动买入指令"，跟 风买入者众多。 最后，长期支撑黄金上涨的因素未变，全球央行持续购金，2025 年三季度全球央行净购金量达 220 吨，环比增长 28%。 不过，这波行情也存在潜在风险，若美国经济数据超预期向好，降息预期降温，或投资者大量止盈离 场，金价可能会回调。 这波行情的出现主要有三方面原因。首先，美国政府停摆结束，降息预期重新点燃，作为与美元、利率 呈负相关的黄金，吸引力大增。 此前，国际金价从 4300 美元 / 盎司的高位一度跌破 3950 美元 / 盎司，而此次突然 "V 型反弹" 并突破 4050 美元 / 盎司的关键压力位，让市场议论纷纷。有人认为这是新一轮上涨的开始，也有人觉得只是 短期反弹。 ...

美国关门超40天，创历史政府停摆时间最长纪录。上一次被迫关门35天也是现任总统特朗普刷新的纪录。 我认为短期震荡还会继续，向下空间也在被压缩，即使短期无法再重回1000元大关，刷新4400美元的历史高点，反复震荡过程中再次冲高的可能性存在。 一句话，美国政府开门事情担心情绪才能缓解，谈判结果没有出炉，经济数据延后公布，多空情绪人还是有担心，单边延续性不会太久，节奏上注意多空 力量转换。 4小时图显示，低点位置不断抬高，向上挑战4050美元压力点，上周五给出3995-93美元的多完美抵达4025美元，而之后尾盘回踩确认后整体方向偏强，今 天重点关注4050美元的突破，此位置突破后回踩还会再延续向上。 今天，金价回踩后的支撑在4030-20美元的范围内，依托上周五反弹高点回踩确认多，上面突破4050-60美元后延续向上，亚盘上涨若欧盘延续，美盘前还 有一次多的机会。 上周五，本该公布的非农就业数据也没戏了，数据都没人公布，进入到数据的"真空"地带，谁也不知道开门时间。 前面三次美国政府停摆期间，美元指数是先跌后涨，这一次美元指数却不跌反弹，走势和黄金同涨同跌，金价一直压制在4050美元之下震荡，今天早上加 速上涨 ...

Core Insights - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95% [1] - The demand for gold jewelry fell by 32.50% to 270.036 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 24.55% increase to 352.116 tons [1] - Industrial and other gold usage increased by 2.72% to 60.578 tons [1] - Spot gold prices surpassed $4,060 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.78% [1] Consumption Trends - The performance of different gold product categories showed significant variance, with high-value jewelry maintaining strong market appeal despite overall consumption decline [1] - The demand for gold bars remains robust, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, highlighting gold's role as a safe-haven asset [1] - The rapid development of industries such as electronics and new energy has contributed to a steady recovery in industrial gold demand [1] Trading Activity - In the first three quarters of this year, trading in gold derivatives was notably active, with total trading volume at the Shanghai Gold Exchange reaching 23,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.45% [1] - The total trading value at the exchange was 17.68 trillion yuan, up 41.55% year-on-year [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a trading volume of 10.36 tons for all gold futures and options, marking a 59.98% increase year-on-year, with a trading value of 61.08 trillion yuan, up 112.60% [1] Production Data - Domestic raw gold production in the first three quarters of 2025 was 271.782 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.39% [2] - Imported raw gold production reached 121.149 tons, up 8.94% year-on-year, leading to a total gold production of 392.931 tons, a 3.60% increase [2] Price Movements - Spot gold prices peaked at $4,381.29 per ounce on October 20, 2025, before experiencing a decline [2] - On October 27, spot gold prices fell below the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time in the month [2] Market Outlook - Analysts have differing views on gold price trends, with some suggesting that recent declines may signal the start of a downward trend [2] - Despite acknowledging short-term risks of price corrections, several institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, with Standard Chartered raising its 2026 average price forecast by 16% to $4,488 [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Metals Weekly Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **gold and precious metals** market, highlighting insights from the **LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference** held in Kyoto, Japan, in late October 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - **Long-term Bullish Sentiment**: Despite a recent correction in gold prices to approximately **$4,000/oz**, there remains a strong bullish sentiment among market participants for gold and precious metals in the medium term. Conference attendees forecast an average gold price of **$4,980/oz** by the next LBMA conference in October 2026, reflecting a **24% increase** from current levels [4][5]. - **ETF Activity**: Recent outflows from global gold ETFs totaled around **35 tonnes**, which is only about half of the previous week's inflow of **62 tonnes**. This indicates that ETF holdings are relatively sticky, although there is a risk of further outflows if gold prices drop below **$3,900/oz** [15][19]. - **Central Bank Purchases**: Central banks reported net purchases of **220 tonnes** in Q3 2025, a **30% increase** quarter-over-quarter, marking a strong buying trend that is expected to continue. Brazil and the Bank of Korea are highlighted as significant buyers [20][19]. - **Jewelry Demand**: Jewelry demand is currently weak, down **19%** in tonnage year-over-year, but this decline aligns with expectations given the price rally. A shift towards bars and coins, particularly in China, is helping to offset some of this weakness [35][41]. - **Recycling Supply**: The growth in recycled gold supply remains modest, with a **1% decrease** quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025. A significant drop in gold prices could trigger more selling from holders [42][50]. Additional Important Insights - **Portfolio Allocation**: Gold's share in total assets under management (AUM) has risen to **2.8%**, with potential for this to increase to **4-5%** in the coming years as investor interest grows [29][28]. - **Emerging Markets**: China's pilot program allowing insurance firms to invest in gold could translate to approximately **210 tonnes** of gold, indicating a potential increase in demand from this sector [34]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes a consumer shift from jewelry to investment bars and coins, particularly in Asia, driven by changes in tax structures that favor investment gold over jewelry [41][34]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for gold and precious metals remains positive, driven by strong central bank demand, sticky ETF holdings, and a potential increase in portfolio allocations. However, risks such as price corrections and weak jewelry demand are factors to monitor closely [19][35][42].

Core Insights - Gold spot prices have remained near the $4,000/oz level after experiencing early-week volatility and a brief dip below support [3][4][6] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has contributed to investor caution, leading to a weakening of the U.S. Dollar towards the end of the week [5][6] - A significant decline in consumer sentiment, reaching one of the lowest levels in history, indicates that fear and uncertainty may continue to support gold prices as November approaches [5][6] Market Dynamics - Early in the week, gold prices tested a support boundary but traded relatively flat, with a slight increase of $10–$20/oz, indicating institutional interest [3] - A notable sell-off occurred on Tuesday, with prices dropping sharply to $3,930/oz, reflecting market reactions to perceived overvaluation [4] - Midweek, bargain hunters drove prices back up to $3,985/oz, aided by a softening U.S. Dollar and concerns over the prolonged government shutdown [5] Investor Sentiment - The combination of a bleak consumer sentiment survey and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown suggests that gold may remain an attractive asset for investors [5][6] - Despite a late-week rebound in gold prices, traders are cautious about potential downside risks if news regarding the resolution of the government shutdown emerges [6]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, the overall impact on trade will be limited, with a predicted decrease in the probability of maintaining tariffs by about 10 percentage points [1] - The Supreme Court's decision is expected between December 2025 and January 2026, and if tariffs are deemed illegal, the government may need months to refund approximately $115 to $145 billion in tariffs [1] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on U.S. Treasuries, noting that the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs could lead to significant market volatility [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - TD Securities forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in November, with a close vote expected at 5-4 [4] - Danske Bank also anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, highlighting the importance of the votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor [7] - The Bank of England's decision-making is influenced by ongoing inflation and labor market conditions, with a cautious approach to further easing [7] Group 3: Commodity and Sector Analysis - CITIC Securities predicts that gold prices will continue to rise, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. economic performance [8] - CITIC Securities also notes that the white liquor industry is at a bottom, with a recovery expected in 2026, while the beer sector is anticipated to see stable revenue and profit [9] - CITIC Securities reports that the aluminum sector is experiencing high profit expansion, with demand for electrolytic aluminum exceeding expectations [10] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - CITIC Securities highlights that the current market rally is characterized by an increase in total deposits and a need for improvement in total wealth [11] - The firm expects that 2026 will be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms potentially reaching profitability [12] - The outlook for AI capital expenditures remains optimistic, with significant growth expected in 2025 and 2026, despite uncertainties in 2027 [13]

Core Insights - Gold prices are struggling to maintain upward momentum, remaining below $4000 despite previous rebounds [1][2] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, lacking clear directional bias [2][3] Market Analysis - Gold has experienced an 11% pullback from its historical high of $4382 reached on October 20, remaining in a consolidation mode for the eighth consecutive trading day [3] - Strong U.S. private sector employment data and earnings reports have countered the dollar's retreat due to the unprecedented government shutdown [3] - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the expected 25,000, while the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.4 [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month are approximately 62%, down from 69% prior to the data release [3] Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for gold appears neutral to slightly bearish, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midpoint [6] - Gold is currently near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from its parabolic rise since August 19 [6] - Buyers need a daily close above $4000 to target the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,079, while strong selling pressure is expected around the psychological level of $4000 [6] - Support levels are identified at $3930, with further support at the October 28 low of $3887 and a demand zone between $3865-$3850 [6]