美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周五重申，由于通胀已降温，且货币政策需要抵消就业市场风险，美联储应降息。 现货白银价格盘中突破67美元/盎司 今天凌晨，现货白银价格突破67美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨2.38%。纽约期银日内涨幅达3.00%。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："较温和的通胀数据对黄金和白银来说有点像'双刃剑'，它有助于证明美联储'鸽'派 轨迹的合理性，但也意味着它们作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力有所下降。" 本周黄金价格在历史高位附近震荡运行，市场对黄金价格走势的预期依旧乐观，高盛预计2026年金价将涨至4900美元/盎司。 "就业市场正在放缓，如果继续沿着这个方向发展，而我们未能充分调整政策加以遏制，到2027年我们将陷入困境。"米兰说。 米兰是美联储内部最坚定支持降息的官员之一。在上周的美联储会议上，他投下反对票，主张降息50个基点，而大多数同僚倾向 于更小幅的25个基点降息。他的美联储任期将于1月31日结束。 截至发稿，纽约期银收涨3.34%，报67.395美元/盎司，本周累计上涨8.55%。现货白银价格收涨2.26%，报67.04美元/盎司。 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现 ...

以下文章来源于中国经营报 ，作者郝亚娟 夏欣 中国经营报 . 《中国经营报》由《中国经营报》社有限公司出版，与中国企业同步成长，对话商业领袖，传播商业理 想，服务商业人群，掌控中国商界绝对话语权。 2025年，在美联储货币政策路径预期不断调整的背景下，国际金价经历了多轮高位震荡调整。 随着美联储年末最后一次议息会议落地，现货黄金再次站上4300美元/盎司。 展望2026年，分析人士指出，黄金市场预计将进入多重力量交织、动态平衡的新阶段。一方面，地 缘经济不确定性、美元走势趋弱以及央行与投资者的结构性需求将继续支撑金价；另一方面，经济 复苏前景、利率周期变化等因素也可能形成一定压力。专家普遍认为，全球央行持续购金已成为打 破传统供需平衡的关键变量，而美联储货币政策转向宽松预计将进一步利好黄金。长期来看，美元 购买力变化、央行储备行为及地缘政治风险仍是影响金价的核心因素。 01 美联储大概率继续降息 12月18日，现货黄金最高触及4342.65美元/盎司。 北京时间12月11日，美联储公布本年度最后一次利率决议，继9月、10月分别降息25基点后，美联储 再宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50% ...

米兰是美联储内部最坚定支持降息的官员之一。在上周的美联储会议上，他投下反对票，主张降息50个 基点，而大多数同僚倾向于更小幅的25个基点降息。他的美联储任期将于1月31日结束。 截至发稿，纽约期银收涨3.34%，报67.395美元/盎司，本周累计上涨8.55%。现货白银价格收涨2.26%， 报67.04美元/盎司。 早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 现货白银价格盘中突破67美元/盎司 今天凌晨，现货白银价格突破67美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨2.38%。纽约期银日内涨幅达 3.00%。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："较温和的通胀数据对黄金和白银来说有点像'双刃剑'，它 有助于证明美联储'鸽'派轨迹的合理性，但也意味着它们作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力有所下降。" 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周五重申，由于通胀已降温，且货币政策需要抵消就业市场风险，美联储应降 息。 "就业市场正在放缓，如果继续沿着这个方向发展，而我们未能充分调整政策加以遏制，到2027年我们 将陷入困境。"米兰说。 2026年金价趋势性上涨动力仍在 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现"出色" 昨日，据媒体报道，特朗普正在推进美联储 ...

早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 现货白银价格盘中突破67美元/盎司 今天凌晨，现货白银价格突破67美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨2.38%。纽约期银日内涨幅达3.00%。 "就业市场正在放缓，如果继续沿着这个方向发展，而我们未能充分调整政策加以遏制，到2027年我们将陷入困境。"米兰说。 米兰是美联储内部最坚定支持降息的官员之一。在上周的美联储会议上，他投下反对票，主张降息50个基点，而大多数同僚倾向于更小幅的25个基点 降息。他的美联储任期将于1月31日结束。 截至发稿，纽约期银收涨3.34%，报67.395美元/盎司，本周累计上涨8.55%。现货白银价格收涨2.26%，报67.04美元/盎司。 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现"出色" 昨日，据媒体报道，特朗普正在推进美联储主席人选遴选，已对现任理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）进行了深入面试，双方就劳动力市场及如何刺激 就业展开详细讨论。此次面试被高级政府官员描述为"非常成功"，但特朗普尚未做出最终决定。 此前，沃勒表示，随着通胀持续放缓，美联储有空间进一步下调利率，使货币政策回归"中性"立场，但当前并不需要急于采取行动。 据悉，沃勒于2020年 ...

摘要今日周五（12月19日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4308.89美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 4323.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.18%，最高上探至4336.33美元/盎司，最低触及4308.59美元/盎司。目前来 看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周五（12月19日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4308.89美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 4323.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.18%，最高上探至4336.33美元/盎司，最低触及4308.59美元/盎司。目前来 看，伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 黄金在周四晚间经历了下探回升后再度冲高回落的洗盘走势，日线图上收出了带有长上下影线的阴线。 目前金价运行于5日均线（大约4320点）之上，该位置同时也是凌晨回调的低点，被视为日内多空双方 争夺的关键分水岭。如果能够在此获得支撑并企稳，那么市场可能会继续保持震荡偏强的态势；反之， 若有效跌破这一水平，则可能引发进一步向下调整的趋势。整体而言，当前阶段黄金价格处于关键价位 附近的拉锯战中，方向尚未完全明朗。 从短期来看，上方阻力区域集中在4370-4375美元之间。尽管昨日曾短暂突破此区间但未能稳固站稳脚 跟，随后又出现回 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility in the gold market following the release of the US CPI data, which showed a significant decrease in inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The US November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 3.1%, while the core CPI also came in at 2.6%, below both the previous value and market expectations of 3% [1] - The market anticipates a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, reinforced by President Biden's statement that the next Fed chair must be a "super dove," raising concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates at its last meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes [1] - The market is closely watching the actions of the Bank of Japan, with expectations of a dovish stance being fully priced in [1] - Despite the prevailing loose monetary environment, caution is advised regarding gold prices and their potential to quickly break through previous historical highs [1]

格隆汇12月19日｜周四（12月18日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌0.16%，报4331.50美元/盎司，北京时间 21:30发布美国CPI通胀报告后短线反弹，美股开盘后在22:46刷新日低至4308.92美元，00:20反弹至 4374.65美元刷新日高——逼近10月20日所创历史最高位4381.52美元，之后又快速回吐这一波涨幅。 COMEX黄金期货跌0.25%，报4362.80美元/盎司，00:20也曾达到4409.50美元——也逼近10月20日所创 （盘中）历史最高位4433.00美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the historical trends of gold prices and their future outlook, emphasizing the relationship between gold prices, inflation, economic risks, and the U.S. dollar index. Group 1: Historical Trends and Inflation - Gold prices have historically been viewed as a hedge against inflation, with a long-term average ratio of gold prices to the U.S. CPI index at 3.2 times, currently rising to around 6 times since 2022 [2] - Since 2010, the ratio of gold prices to the U.S. CPI index has remained above historical averages for 15 years, indicating a potential for price correction as the deviation from the mean is similar to the historical peak in the early 1980s [2] Group 2: Relationship with Risk Assets - Traditionally, gold prices are expected to have a negative correlation with mainstream risk assets, but both the S&P 500 index and gold prices have shown significant increases since Q4 2022, raising questions about future divergence [4] - The S&P 500 index has doubled during this period, while gold's increase has outpaced that of the S&P 500, suggesting a unique market condition where both assets rise amid heightened global economic and political risks [4] Group 3: Interest Rates and Gold Prices - Theoretically, gold prices should have a negative correlation with interest rates; however, recent years have shown a lack of significant correlation, with gold prices remaining stable despite rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields [7][8] - From late 2020 to mid-2023, despite a rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields from 0.5% to over 4%, gold prices exhibited a consolidating trend, indicating that long-term interest rates may not be a primary factor influencing gold prices in the near future [8] Group 4: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Gold prices are positively correlated with global economic policy uncertainty, particularly evident after significant policy changes, such as the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, which led to a peak in the uncertainty index [11] - Despite a decrease in the global economic policy uncertainty index and geopolitical risk index, gold prices have remained high, suggesting potential for a significant correction if these conditions stabilize further [11] Group 5: Impact of the U.S. Dollar - Gold prices are primarily traded in U.S. dollars, leading to an expected negative correlation with the dollar index; however, this correlation has varied over time [14] - In 2025, the dollar index depreciated by 10%, yet gold prices remained resilient, indicating that factors beyond the dollar's strength may be influencing gold prices [14] Group 6: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices in 2026 will largely depend on global economic policy uncertainty and the dollar index, with predictions suggesting a potential decline of 10-20% if conditions remain stable [16] - If unexpected geopolitical conflicts arise or if the U.S. government reintroduces protectionist policies, significant adjustments in gold prices may not occur as anticipated [16]

Core Viewpoint - There is a possibility of a significant adjustment in global gold prices in the first half of 2026, potentially declining by 10% to 20% [1] Group 1: Historical Price Trends - From December 30, 2024, to December 10, 2025, the LBMA gold price in the UK rose from $2,609.10 per ounce to $4,200.15 per ounce, marking a 61% increase, making it the best-performing asset class globally in 2025 [1] - Gold prices reached a historic high of $4,294.35 per ounce on October 20, 2025, before experiencing an 8% decline to $3,948.50 per ounce on October 28, 2025, and then fluctuating between $4,000 and $4,200 [1] Group 2: Inflation and Gold Prices - Historically, gold prices have been viewed as a hedge against inflation, with a long-term average ratio of gold prices to the U.S. CPI index at 3.2 times [2] - Currently, this ratio is close to 6 times, indicating a significant deviation from historical averages, which raises the probability of a price correction in the future [2] Group 3: Correlation with Risk Assets - Traditionally, gold prices are expected to have a negative correlation with mainstream risk assets, but both the S&P 500 index and gold prices have shown significant increases since Q4 2022 [4] - The future relationship between gold and equities remains uncertain, raising questions about which asset may adjust first if a divergence occurs [4] Group 4: Interest Rates and Gold Prices - The theoretical relationship suggests that gold prices should negatively correlate with interest rates; however, recent years have shown a lack of significant correlation [7] - For instance, despite a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields from 0.5% to over 4% between late 2020 and mid-2023, gold prices remained relatively stable [7] Group 5: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Gold prices are positively correlated with global economic policy uncertainty, particularly following significant policy changes, such as the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration [10] - Despite a decrease in the global economic policy uncertainty index and geopolitical risk index, gold prices have remained high, suggesting potential for a significant correction if conditions do not worsen [11] Group 6: Dollar Influence on Gold Prices - Gold prices are primarily traded in U.S. dollars, leading to a historical negative correlation with the dollar index; however, this relationship has varied over time [13] - In 2025, despite a 10% depreciation of the dollar index, gold prices surged by 60%, indicating that dollar fluctuations are not the primary driver of gold price changes [13] Group 7: Future Predictions - The baseline prediction suggests that the probability of significant escalation in trade tensions before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections is low, which may lead to a stable dollar index between 95 and 100 [17] - If these conditions hold, a significant adjustment in gold prices may occur in the first half of 2026, unless unexpected geopolitical conflicts arise or trade policies are reintroduced [17]

11:20 0 ··· 黄金ETF持仓报告 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-12-15 1.060 1,050 1.040 1.030 1.020 1.010 2025-10-29 2025-11-19 2025-12-10 2025-10-08 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量 … 展开 ( 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1051.69 吨黄金 0 截至12月16日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1051.69吨，较前一个交易日维持不变。12月16日，现货黄金震荡盘整于4300美元/盎司关口 附近，在非农数据出炉之后最高曾反弹至4335美元/盎司附近，随后回落至4300美元/盎司左右，收于4302.06美元/盎司，跌3.29美元/0.08%。 基本面消息，金价周二在触及盘中高点后掉头向下，交易员消化美国最新就业报告后，黄金回吐早盘涨幅。姗姗来迟的非农就业报告显示劳动力市场疲 软，一度推动金价升至4335美元，但随后因零售销售核心指标大涨，显示消费支出强劲而有所回落。 投资者还关注美联储 ...