Economic Growth Outlook - Morocco's economy is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected growth rates of 4.4% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, driven by agricultural recovery and strong domestic demand despite external uncertainties [1][2] Agricultural Sector - The 2024/2025 agricultural season is anticipated to see a grain production of 4.4 million tons, a 41% increase year-on-year, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026 [1] - Agricultural value added is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 [1] Non-Agricultural Sectors - The non-agricultural sectors are projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with industrial, construction, and service sectors as key drivers [2] - The secondary sector is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in both years, with specific growth rates of 4.2% and 4.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The construction sector is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, supported by events like the Africa Cup in 2025 and the World Cup in 2030 [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is anticipated to be the core growth driver, with expected growth rates of 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, contributing 5.8 and 5 percentage points to GDP respectively [2] - Household consumption is projected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, while government consumption is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 4% [2] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to grow by 9.8% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026, following a 10.9% increase in 2024 [2] Trade and External Factors - Net exports are expected to continue dragging down economic growth, with the trade deficit projected to rise from 19.1% of GDP in 2024 to 20.1% in 2026 [3] - The current account deficit is expected to remain in the range of 1.8% to 1.9% [3] Fiscal Outlook - Fiscal revenue is projected to increase to 19.3% of GDP in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026, with the fiscal deficit rate expected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2026 [3] - Government debt is expected to improve, with domestic debt decreasing by 3 percentage points over three years [3] Monetary Policy - Non-financial sector credit is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, with broad money supply growth remaining above 6% [3] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to cover five months of import needs [3]

中新社阿斯塔纳7月15日电 (记者单璐)哈萨克斯坦政府当地时间15日发布消息称，2025年上半年，哈国 内生产总值(GDP)同比增长6.2%，各主要行业保持良好增长势头。 针对近期哈国内物价上涨，别克捷诺夫表示，各地要用好政府储备、远期合同、价格补贴等措施，保障 民生商品供应，稳定市场价格。 消息称，当天的会议还听取了国家经济、财政、能源、农业、交通等多个部门的工作汇报。哈政府将根 据会议部署，制定具体行动计划，推动年度经济和社会发展目标落实。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 别克捷诺夫强调，为实现经济长期稳健增长，政府需发挥好在促进投资方面的协调和服务作用，重点支 持高附加值、出口导向型项目。要提高制造业产能利用率，保障原材料供应，完善经济特区和工业园区 基础设施，吸引更多国际资金，同时加快交通建设、提升跨境物流能力。 别克捷诺夫说，未来几年，哈萨克斯坦将重建4000多公里公路，升级口岸设施，推进境内铁路和国际航 空枢纽建设。到2028年，整体货运能力有望实现翻番。 据哈总理府网站消息，哈萨克斯坦总理别克捷诺夫当天主持召开政府工作会议，审议今年上半年经济运 行和预算执行情况。 今年上半年哈萨克斯坦建筑业、贸 ...

7月15日，中国经济半年报正式出炉。"这是一份含金量非常高的成绩单。"国家统计局副局长盛来运在 当天举行的国新办新闻发布会上说。 初步核算，今年上半年国内生产总值(GDP)为660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。分季度 看，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，二季度同比增长5.2%。盛来运如此评价：上半年国民经济顶压前行、 稳定运行，主要指标好于预期，高质量发展扎实推进，经济保持了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势。 运行稳：四大指标持续向好 盛来运表示，从观察宏观经济的四大指标看，经济运行"稳"的特点突出。 经济增长稳中略升。上半年，GDP同比增速比去年同期和去年全年均提升0.3个百分点。从环比看，二 季度GDP增长1.1%。 就业形势整体稳定。今年以来，月度城镇调查失业率基本在5.0%至5.4%的区间内波动。上半年，全国 城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%，比一季度下降0.1个百分点。 今年上半年，在保持"稳"的主基调的同时，经济运行还呈现出"进""新""畅"的亮点。 "进"的步伐坚定。盛来运表示，各地坚定不移推动经济转型和高质量发展。从数据来看，创新发展、协 调发展、绿色发展、开放发展、共享发展都取得新的 ...

Economic Growth - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, showing resilience despite external pressures [1][4] - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a slight decrease to 5.2%, indicating a stable upward trend overall [4][10] Employment - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first half of the year was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, with June's rate at 5.0% [5][6] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% [7][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.8%, indicating stable price levels overall [7][8] International Trade - The import and export scale remained stable at over 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [9] - As of the end of June, foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,174 billion USD, maintaining above 3.2 trillion USD for 19 consecutive months [9] Domestic Demand - Domestic consumption was identified as the main driver of GDP growth, contributing 52% to the economic increase, with retail sales reaching 24.55 trillion yuan, a 5% year-on-year growth [11][12] - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.9 trillion yuan, with a nominal growth of 2.8%, and an actual growth of 5.3% after adjusting for price factors [12] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector showed strong performance, particularly in high-tech industries, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in high-tech manufacturing value added [13] Future Outlook - The economic outlook for the second half of the year remains stable, with expectations for continued growth supported by policy measures and financial support for the real economy [14][15][16]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, exceeding the government's annual growth target despite trade tensions with the U.S. [1] - In the second quarter, China's GDP growth was reported at 5.2%, which is expected to help achieve the annual growth target [2][4]. Key Drivers of Growth - Manufacturing and major projects, such as high-speed rail, have significantly supported China's economic growth [1]. - Strong export performance has been identified as a key factor for China's economic growth, with better-than-expected trade data contributing positively [2][4]. Industrial Performance - Industrial production in China showed rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in June, surpassing expectations [4]. - The resilience of the Chinese economy has provided policy space for further fiscal stimulus, supporting domestic demand and the construction industry [4]. Consumer Market - The Chinese government is actively stimulating consumption through subsidies for residents on purchases of electric vehicles, air conditioners, and other industrial goods, which have received an unexpectedly positive response [6].

Economic Data Summary - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 42,287 billion yuan in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first half of the year was 248,654 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2% [2] Financial Data Insights - In June, M1 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, while M2 rose by 8.3% [4] - New social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan in June, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.9% [4] - Financial institutions issued 2.2 trillion yuan in new RMB loans in June, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a loan growth rate of 7.1% [4] Real Estate Market Analysis - In June, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year, while second-hand residential prices fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year [3] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but sales area and prices are still declining year-on-year, indicating a gradual process of bottoming out [3] Market Performance Overview - On July 15, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% at 3,505.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.56% to 10,744.56 points [5] - The ChiNext Index increased by 1.73% to 2,235.05 points, and the Sci-Tech 100 Index rose by 0.62% to 1,077.46 points [5] - Among the sectors, telecommunications, computers, and electronics saw the highest gains, while coal, agriculture, and public utilities experienced the largest declines [5] Market Activity and Trends - The total market turnover reached 16,352.67 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day [6] - The margin trading balance was reported at 18,853.90 billion yuan, also reflecting an increase [6] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating positive momentum for certain stocks [6]

国家统计局副局长盛来运：上半年，内需是促进我国经济增长的主动力。 （新华财经） ...

Core Insights - The report by Thomas Hempel from Allianz Investment indicates that U.S. concerns over tariffs impacting the domestic economy may assist the EU in avoiding high import duties [1] - President Trump has pledged to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1, creating a limited timeframe for both parties to negotiate an agreement [1] - Hempel notes that the potential rise in prices due to tariffs could enhance the EU's negotiating position [1] Economic Implications - The implementation of tariffs is expected to quickly reflect in U.S. prices, raising inflation concerns [1] - Charles Evans, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, warned that tariffs are disrupting inflation forecasts and delaying potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlights a significant power struggle that reflects deep divisions within the U.S. regarding monetary policy and economic governance, potentially posing risks to the global financial system [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell centers on the costly renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which he labels as "severe mismanagement," indicating a broader political offensive against the Fed [3]. - The former president has called for an unprecedented 3 percentage point cut in interest rates, a move typically reserved for extreme economic crises, challenging the Fed's independence [3][4]. - Trump's actions suggest an attempt to undermine the Fed's autonomy by seeking a successor to Powell who would align more closely with presidential directives, threatening the institution's role as a stabilizer in the market [8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Powell's refusal to lower interest rates stems from concerns that Trump's trade policies could lead to soaring inflation, advocating for maintaining higher rates until economic conditions improve [4]. - The ongoing power struggle between the U.S. government and the central bank raises concerns about potential impacts on financial markets and economic expectations, with the possibility of increased volatility in asset prices and capital flows [6][8]. - Economists express worry that undermining the Fed's credibility could lead to significant fluctuations in interest rate expectations, further destabilizing the financial system and clouding the economic recovery [6][8]. Group 3: Institutional Integrity - The conflict underscores a fundamental challenge to the Fed's independence, which is crucial for avoiding politically motivated monetary policy errors and ensuring economic stability [3][4]. - Trump's push for a shadow leadership within the Fed disrupts the traditional continuity of policy-making, increasing uncertainty and potentially harming long-term economic health [8]. - The tension between the government and the central bank, particularly in the context of the U.S. as the world's largest economy, raises alarms about the broader implications for global financial stability and economic growth [8].

Group 1: EU and US Trade Negotiations - The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, 2025, which has caused significant concern within the EU [2] - EU leaders, including Commission President von der Leyen and Council President Costa, emphasize the importance of fair trade and express readiness to negotiate while warning of potential countermeasures [3] - French President Macron and other EU officials call for immediate action and preparation of credible countermeasures if no agreement is reached by the deadline [3] Group 2: South Korea's Trade Strategy - South Korea is seeking to negotiate tariff reductions with the US, inspired by the recent US-UK trade agreement [4][5] - The automotive sector is a focal point for South Korea, with exports to the US projected to reach $34.2 billion in 2024, accounting for 26.8% of total exports to the US [6] - Experts suggest that South Korea could leverage US needs in shipbuilding and LNG projects to negotiate better terms for automotive and semiconductor exports [6] Group 3: Economic Implications - A successful trade agreement between the EU and the US could stabilize supply chains and protect the interests of businesses and consumers on both sides [7] - Conversely, failure to reach an agreement could lead to significant economic losses for both the EU and South Korea, impacting key industries and overall economic growth [7]