作为资深外汇分析师，Chan 深入剖析了马来西亚央行此次降息的核心动因 —— 很可能是为了应对日益加 剧的关税风险。在全球贸易保护主义抬头的背景下，马来西亚作为外向型经济体，其出口产业极易受到关 税政策冲击。关税的提高会直接削弱马来西亚商品在国际市场的价格竞争力，导致出口下滑、经济增长承 压。央行选择在此时降息，显然是希望通过降低企业融资成本、刺激国内需求，来对冲关税风险对经济的 负面影响，为经济增长注入缓冲垫。 Juno markets发现三菱日联银行的 Lloyd Chan 在最新发布的研报中，对马来西亚央行的货币政策走向给出 了明确判断：在周三实施降息后，该国央行短期内大概率不会进一步下调政策利率。这一观点为市场理解 马来西亚的货币政策逻辑提供了重要参考，也折射出当前东南亚经济体在复杂全球环境中的政策权衡。 从宏观经济韧性来看，马来西亚近年来在产业升级、基础设施建设等方面的投入逐步显现成效，经济结构 更趋多元化，对单一出口产业的依赖度有所降低。这使得该国在面对外部冲击时，具备更强的抗风险能 力。即使关税政策引发短期出口波动，国内经济的内生增长动力也能在一定程度上抵消负面影响，为货币 稳定提供基本面支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. port operators are urging the Trump administration to delay new tariffs on Chinese-made cranes, warning that costs for essential port equipment upgrades could soar by tens of millions of dollars if the tariffs are implemented [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The proposed tariffs would add to the existing 25% tariff on Chinese cranes established during the Biden administration, with additional tariffs being considered on other Chinese goods [1][5]. - U.S. port operators argue that the tariffs would unfairly penalize ports that have already placed orders for cranes before the new policy was announced, without addressing the severe shortage of non-Chinese manufactured cranes [1][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Currently, 80% of the cranes used at U.S. ports are manufactured in China, primarily by ZPMC, which significantly outpaces competitors like Konecranes and Liebherr [2][4]. - The average price of a Chinese-made crane is approximately $15 million, which is several million dollars lower than the cheapest non-Chinese alternatives [5]. Group 3: Domestic Production Challenges - U.S. port officials indicate that establishing sufficient domestic production capacity for cranes could take around ten years, highlighting the urgent need for a transition period [4][7]. - The American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) supports the goal of domestic crane production but emphasizes the necessity of tax incentives to stimulate local manufacturing capabilities [5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Concerns - U.S. government officials express concerns that China's dominance in critical infrastructure poses risks to both the economy and national security, with allegations of potential espionage capabilities in Chinese cranes [4][5]. - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is currently reviewing tariff measures on Chinese equipment, with discussions focusing on imposing tariffs ranging from 20% to 100% on various cargo handling equipment [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump to impose high tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, reaching up to 200%, reignites global trade tensions and raises concerns about potential economic impacts [1][2]. Tariff Implementation - New tariffs will be effective from August 1, with Japan and South Korea facing a 25% tariff, Laos and Myanmar up to 40%, and Vietnam at 20% [1]. - The UK, with a trade surplus with the US, will see a lower tariff of 10%, while China's base tariff is set at 10% with a 90-day buffer for certain products [1]. Economic Impact - Economists express concerns about the delayed effects of tariffs, predicting significant inflationary pressures in the coming quarters, particularly in healthcare and education costs [5]. - The potential for healthcare costs to rise by 9 times due to tariffs on pharmaceuticals has been highlighted, indicating a substantial burden on consumers [2]. Consumer Sentiment - Despite a decrease in one-year inflation expectations to 3.02%, concerns about future costs, especially in healthcare, remain prevalent among consumers [4][5]. - Many consumers report a slight easing in shopping burdens, but worries about essential expenses persist [4]. Trade Negotiations - The US Treasury Secretary announced upcoming meetings with Chinese officials to discuss trade, indicating a proactive approach to negotiations [7]. - The unique interaction pattern in US-China talks has led to some progress, unlike the stalled negotiations with Japan and South Korea [9]. Supply Chain Concerns - The US's reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies, which account for over 70% of global supply, poses risks to defense and high-tech industries, making it a critical negotiation point [9]. - Companies are urging for expedited rare earth imports to avoid disruptions in military projects [9]. Market Reactions - Analysts note that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to a cautious approach from businesses, with many delaying expansion plans [5][11]. - The overall economic impact of Trump's tariff policies on global trade is expected to unfold over time, with significant implications for small businesses facing survival challenges [11].

Group 1 - The 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting opened in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, amid concerns over unilateral actions related to tariffs, with participants calling for cooperation to address external pressures [1][3] - The meeting, lasting until July 11, includes 24 ministerial meetings, focusing on inclusivity and sustainability, with discussions involving external partners such as China, the US, and Japan [3] - Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar emphasized the need for ASEAN unity against trade barriers being used as geopolitical tools, urging member states to increase internal trade and reduce dependence on external powers [4][5] Group 2 - ASEAN countries expressed clear opposition to the US's unilateral tariff actions, which they believe undermine existing trade rules and could exacerbate global economic fragmentation [5] - A draft joint communiqué indicated ASEAN ministers' concerns over escalating global trade tensions and the uncertainty in the international economic landscape, particularly regarding tariffs [5] - US Secretary of State Rubio's visit to Asia aims to reassure allies affected by US tariff policies and strengthen relations with ASEAN, although his trip was shortened, reflecting a potential weakening of US strategic presence in the region [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump announced a significant increase in import tariffs on goods from Brazil, reaching up to 50%, which is notably higher than the 25% to 40% tariffs imposed on other countries [1] - The decision to impose higher tariffs on Brazil is linked to Trump's dissatisfaction with the Brazilian government's treatment of former President Bolsonaro, whom he described as a victim of "political persecution" [1] - Trump has initiated a trade investigation against Brazil under Section 301 of the Trade Act, which allows the U.S. to retaliate against perceived unfair trade practices [1] Group 2 - In addition to Brazil, Trump announced new tariffs on goods from seven other countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 30% [2] - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy, with Trump indicating that if new trade agreements are not reached by August 1, additional tariffs will be imposed on various countries, including Japan and South Korea [2] - Despite the potential for increased tariffs, market reactions have been muted, as analysts believe that some agreements may be reached before the deadline [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the geopolitical dilemma faced by the EU as it attempts to navigate between the US and China, with the EU trying to establish a trade agreement with the US while simultaneously managing its relationship with China [1][2][4] - The EU has imposed trade barriers against Chinese products, citing "unfair competition," but these measures have led to retaliatory actions from China, including investigations into EU products such as pork and brandy [1][5] - The EU's economic dependence on China limits its ability to exert pressure, as highlighted by the fact that many European countries still rely heavily on Chinese industrial materials [8][9][11] Group 2 - The EU's recent measures to restrict Chinese participation in public procurement for medical devices are framed as necessary for "fair competition," but these actions have prompted China to respond with equivalent restrictions [5][7] - Despite the EU's criticisms of China's trade practices, the economic interdependence between the two regions constrains the EU's capacity to apply significant pressure on China [9][11] - The EU is also facing challenges from the US, with expected increases in export tariffs, which may compel the EU to adopt a tougher stance on China as part of negotiations with the US [7][8]

当地时间7月9日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布了致巴西有关加征关税的信函，表 示美国将自2025年8月1日起对所有巴西产品征收50%的关税。(央视新闻) ...

卢特尼克说，对铜进口的调查已经完成，「我们已经完成调查。我们已将报告交给总统。」他说， 川普将在稍后宣布铜关税并签署相关公告，而铜关税有可能在7月底或8月1日生效。 点这里加关注，锁定更多原创内容 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源： 内 容 编译自 CNBC 。 美国商务部长卢特尼克表示，美国将在本月底完成对半导体和药品进口的调查，以判断对国安的影 响。这增加了宣布新关税的可能性。 卢特尼克8日在接受CNBC访问时表示：「在制药和半导体领域，这些调查将在月底完成」，「届 时总统将制定他的政策，而我将让他稍后去决定将怎么做」。他指的是在4月依据1962年「贸易扩 张法」第232条发动的调查。依据这条法律，当美国总统判定进口品可能损害国安时，他有权调整 进口品。 卢特尼克说，川普说过了，「如果没有在美国建厂，他们将面临高税率。但如果你正在美国建厂， 他或许会考虑让你有时间建。我认为他在内阁会议中提到这点。让你们有时间去盖，像是一年、一 年半、或许两年的时间兴建，之后关税会高得多。但这些细节将在月底出炉，而总统将敲定」。 川普同日稍早在内阁会议上表示，政府将宣布对药品、芯片和其他重要商品征收关税，同 ...

综合日媒9日报道，针对美国总统特朗普公布的将对来自日本的进口产品征收25%关税的信息，日本首 相石破茂表示，将全力维护国家利益，不会轻易妥协。据报道，当地时间9日，石破茂在佐贺市演讲 时，提及美国关税政策时表示，日本国内将团结一致维护国家利益，在不能让步的事情上不会让步，绝 对不会牺牲农业。(中国新闻网) ...

Group 1 - The recent tariff increase by the Trump administration, ranging from 25% to 40% on several countries, has exceeded market expectations and reflects a shift towards aggressive trade protectionism [3][4] - The imposition of tariffs on traditional allies like Japan and South Korea indicates a broader strategy beyond just targeting China, potentially reshaping regional economic dynamics [3][4] - The immediate market reaction includes a significant drop in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling 422 points, highlighting investor concerns over future uncertainty and growth expectations [2][3] Group 2 - The tariff hikes are expected to increase corporate costs, compress profit margins, and restrict international trade activities, which could lead to a restructuring of global supply chains [3][6] - Emerging economies such as South Africa, South Korea, and Japan are experiencing currency depreciation, which may exacerbate capital outflow risks and increase import costs, leading to inflationary pressures [6][7] - The trade protectionism measures reflect an attempt by the U.S. to adjust its power within the global economic system, potentially prompting affected countries to seek alternative markets and strengthen regional economic alliances [7][9]