资金流向上，Wind数据显示，A500指数ETF（159351）昨日获超5400万元资金净流入。 A500指数ETF（159351）紧密跟踪新一代标杆指数中证A500指数，该指数优选各行业市值代表性强、 表征行业龙头的500只股票，兼顾大市值的同时均衡覆盖A股各行业核心龙头资产。 A500指数ETF（159351）还配备了场外联接基金（A类022453；C类022454）。 消息面上，国务院新闻办公室今日举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情 况。中国人民银行行长潘功胜在会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降 低政策利率0.1个百分点。此外，中国人民银行行长潘功胜还表示，优化两项支持资本市场货币政策工 具，将5000亿元证券基金保险公司互换便利，和3000亿元股票增持回购再贷款两个工具的额度合并，总 额度变为8000亿元。 东方证券研报统计显示：截至2025年4月30日，规模最大的ETF跟踪标的为沪深300，总规模10359.15亿 元，其次为中证A500规模2113.36亿元。 5月7日，A股主要指数盘中反复活跃。主要宽基ETF中，A500指数ETF（159 ...

Core Insights - The narrative logic of the A-share market in China is becoming increasingly clear, indicating a growing focus on technology sectors [1] - The gathering effect within the market is becoming more pronounced, suggesting that certain sectors or companies are attracting more investment and attention [1]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has appreciated significantly, indicating that global capital views the Chinese market as a safe haven [3] - The rise in the FTSE A50 index suggests that foreign investors are increasingly attracted to A-share valuations [3] - Gold prices reaching $3,400 reflect global skepticism towards the Federal Reserve's policies, highlighting a shift in risk sentiment [3] Group 2 - Upcoming important meetings are expected to introduce policies that may boost infrastructure investment and consumer recovery, while the real estate sector may see new regulations [3] - The market is anticipated to experience sector rotation, with financials benefiting from RMB appreciation and consumer sectors recovering from recent data [3] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on companies with solid performance metrics and clear industry positioning, rather than short-term market fluctuations [4]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a strong performance, but there is confusion regarding the sustainability of this trend, especially in light of the lack of substantial domestic policies to boost demand [2][4] - The depreciation of the RMB is seen as a strategic move in the context of US-China relations, with expectations that a resolution could lead to a rapid appreciation of the RMB and subsequent domestic policy implementations [4][5] - The focus on short-term gains is prevalent among investors, but the real concern should be on the expectations surrounding monetary policy changes, particularly potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6] Group 2 - A broad market rally does not guarantee that all stocks will continue to rise; historical patterns show that not all stocks sustain their gains after a general uptrend [7][8] - The difference in stock performance during market rallies can often be attributed to the level of institutional participation, which is crucial for sustained price increases [12][16] - Current data indicates that over 3,000 stocks are seeing institutional participation, with a notable increase in inventory data over the past 6-10 days, reaching a one-month high [19]

Market Performance - In April, the overall market experienced a decline, with significant drops occurring on April 7, while other trading days remained stable [1] - The major indices showed varied performance, with the STAR 50, Shanghai 50, and Shanghai Composite Index experiencing smaller declines, while the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 saw larger drops [1] - The average daily trading volume decreased significantly to below 1.24 trillion yuan, marking a continuous decline over two months from a peak of 1.84 trillion yuan in February [1] Earnings Reports - As of last week, the first quarter earnings reports for A-shares were completed, showing better-than-expected overall performance [2] - In Q1 2025, total revenue for all A-listed companies declined by 0.37% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately 1.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.47% year-on-year [2] - Non-financial companies reported a net profit of 779.7 billion yuan, up 4.17% year-on-year, contrasting with negative growth in the previous four quarters [2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April fell to 49%, indicating a contraction and reflecting significant declines in production indices, orders, and price indices due to external demand pressures [2] - Despite the challenges, the first quarter performance of listed companies is expected to be better than initial pessimistic forecasts for the first half of the year [2] Consumer Trends - The "May Day" holiday saw strong travel demand, with nationwide railway passenger volume increasing by over 10% year-on-year for three consecutive days from April 30 to May 2, and record travel numbers on May 1 [2] - The robust travel data suggests substantial potential for consumer spending, with new consumption and service sectors expected to drive domestic economic growth, potentially offsetting some negative impacts from tariffs [2] Future Market Outlook - Opportunities in the A-share market are anticipated to improve significantly post-April, as investor concerns over earnings have eased, potentially increasing risk appetite [3] - Focus areas for investment include technology growth, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption sectors, which are expected to attract investor participation and enhance market activity [3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has suddenly adjusted the market closure arrangements during the May Day holiday, following the investigation of Vice Chairman Wang Jianjun for serious violations of discipline and law [1] - There are significant concerns regarding major shareholders exploiting loopholes in the current reduction rules, treating the stock market as a cash machine, leading to potential losses for retail investors [1] - The recent trend of companies suddenly turning into ST (Special Treatment) stocks during the annual report disclosure period has resulted in substantial declines, highlighting the impact of the strictest delisting regulations in history [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the A-share market post-holiday indicates both opportunities and challenges, with many stocks having already reached attractive levels after April's adjustments [3] - The focus for the upcoming rebound should be on the robotics sector and computing power, emphasizing the importance of seizing the May rebound [3] - Despite a generally positive market sentiment due to external factors like the appreciation of the RMB, the market remains in a state of indecision, with significant divergence among individual stocks [5] Group 3 - The market opened slightly lower at 3284 points and experienced minor fluctuations, reaching a high of 3292 points before closing at 3279 points, down 7.62 points with increased trading volume [7] - The market has not yet recovered from the losses incurred in early April, indicating a potential for a second bottoming phase [7] - The upcoming trading period is expected to be less challenging compared to April, as May and June are typically performance vacuum periods [5]

宏观策略·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 一季度受益于抢出口，中国经济增速达 5.4%，出口增速显著，但 4 月美 国订单锐减。尽管转口贸易支撑了 4 月出口，但美国经济软数据衰退预示 外需疲软，预计 6 月出口将明显下降，三季度压力或将增大。 • 企业普遍预期关税不会持久，因美国短期内难寻替代产能且消费习惯难改。 特朗普已释放积极信号，中美或通过非美国家间接博弈，中国正深化与欧 洲等关系，中美谈判时间表或将确定。 • 关税增加导致中国企业出口成本上升，尤其影响电子、家电等全球营销产 品。应对策略包括转嫁成本、产能转移至东南亚/印度、转口贸易、建立海 外仓及拆分产品价值等避税手段。 • 中国企业正采取多元化市场战略和深度本土化措施，通过在东南亚、印度 等地建厂供应美国市场，同时保留中国作为全球供应中心，以降低单一市 场依赖并增强抗风险能力。 • 2025 年一季度 A 股盈利改善，全 A 非金融板块累计同比增速显著提升， 但单季度营收仍有波动。创业板盈利明显改善，科创 50 业绩加速下滑， TMT 板块表现优秀，传统消费行业相对优异。 Q&A 美国关税政策对中国企业的影响如何，以及企 ...

A股开盘，上证指数涨0.49%，深证成指涨0.75%，创业板指涨0.97%。 ...

5月5日，和讯投顾高璐明就假期期间国内外市场动态及A股后续走势发表了观点。他指出，假期期间市 场消息频出，中国资产大幅飙升，汇率也呈现升值态势，同时现货黄金市场也出现大涨。在此背景下， 投资者普遍关注A股市场在假期后能否迎来开门红。 高璐明强调，在市场资金未完全发力之前，投资者可以关注科技品种或受消息政策影响的方向，但整体 仓位不宜过重。他建议投资者等待市场资金发力、新的明确热点方向或主线方向启动时再重点加仓。对 于短线投资者而言，一旦出现明显涨不动或冲高回落的情况，应及时减仓或离场。 从技术面来看，高璐明认为市场在经历连续回踩后正在构筑中期底部。他建议投资者等待市场给出明确 的中大阳线、成交量放大等信号，并确定主线方向后再加重仓位参与第二次抄底。尽管市场节奏需要把 握，但他对未来行情并不悲观。 在谈到市场走势时，高璐明认为，尽管假期期间市场出现了诸多利好信号，如中国资产上攻、汇率升 值、富时A50及港股正反馈等，但投资者仍需防范市场高开回落的风险。他提到，外部事件虽然传递出 谈判意愿，但小额包裹免税政策最终未减免，显示出对方意愿并不强烈。同时，国际原油价格持续跳 水，将对国内石油板块形成负面影响，进而压制盘 ...

中信证券：5月A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征；中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波 段策略为主；申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向。 ②中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波段策略为主 中信建投认为，展望后市，只要情绪指数处于50以上，且全A指数处于年线和半年线上方，都应该维持 战略性乐观判断，配置半仓以上仓位。整体看，当前市场已经进入窄幅震荡区间，情绪指数波动带来的 右侧买卖信号作用下降，建议投资者更关注情绪指数整体水平和分项指标的提示意义，操作上以震荡区 间低买高卖波段策略为主。 ③平安证券：政策呵护、内需韧性与科技自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间 平安证券指出，综合来看，五一假期出行旅游、观影消费数据亮眼，伴随国内政策加速落地显效，消费 对经济增长的推动力将持续强化，同时AI科技革命与自主可控逻辑不变，政策呵护、内需韧性与科技 自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间。结构上建议关注两条主线：一是国产科技自主可控（新质生产 力、先进制造、国防军工等）；二是受益于扩内需政策支持，基本面预期修复且具备估值性价比的内循 环消费优质资产。 ④申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向 申万宏源表示，维持二季度震荡市判断。 ...