美联储古尔斯比：关税措施对通胀的影响可能仅限于温和程度。 ...

美联储戴利：仍在等待更多关于通胀的相关信息。 ...

美联储巴尔金：近期通胀数据令人鼓舞，就业市场状况良好。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, emphasizing the U.S. stance on sanctions and inflation concerns, which may impact future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The article provides predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, indicating a high probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50% on July 31, 2025, at 75.2% [4]. - There is a 68.1% chance of the rate being between 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, and a 51.3% chance of it being between 3.75%-4.00% on October 30, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The article notes that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a critical level at the Bollinger middle band around 3355, which will determine the market's direction [5]. - A bearish flag pattern is forming, indicating potential downward pressure on gold prices, with key support levels around 3300 [7]. - The article highlights the importance of the upper and lower boundaries of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting that a breach of these levels could lead to significant market movements [7].

英国央行行长贝利：我们应该认识到，通胀的短期回升给通胀的短期前景带来了进一步的不确定性。 ...

与此同时，通胀问题依然棘手。Sløk预测，到年底，美国的通胀率可能仍将维持在百分之三左右，远高于美联储百分之二的目标水平。这一数字较此前百分 之二点四的预测显著上升，反映出物价压力的持续性。尽管美联储已采取了一系列紧缩措施，但通胀的黏性使得市场对降息的预期不断推迟，进一步加剧了 经济的不确定性。 劳动力市场的表现同样不容乐观。Sløk预计，美国失业率将在未来十八个月内持续攀升，今年可能从当前的百分之四点二升至四点四， 而到明年或将突破百分之五。历史经验表明，失业率的上升往往与滞胀周期相伴而生。上世纪七八十年代，美国曾经历严重的滞胀，失业率一度飙升至接近 百分之十的高位。如今，类似的阴影似乎正在重现。 Sløk在一份最新研究报告中指出，美国经济增长已显疲态，而通胀压力却未见明显缓解。他认为，这一局面的形成与近年来贸易政策的调整密切相关。关税 政策的变动不仅增加了经济下行的风险，还推高了物价水平，形成了典型的滞胀冲击。华尔街对今年经济增长的预期已普遍下调，而对通胀的预测则小幅上 升，这种趋势进一步印证了滞胀的可能性。 美国经济增长放缓已成为不争的事实。Sløk预计，今年美国GDP增速可能降至百分之一点二，较去年第 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shifting focus of traders from geopolitical risks to the implications of Federal Reserve policies and fiscal deficits, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a weakening against the euro and pound [1][3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage, while expanding fiscal deficits raise concerns about government bond supply [1][3]. - The eurozone is experiencing discussions around budget expansion and industrial subsidies, which may narrow the growth gap in the euro area, while the UK benefits from a stable labor market and high interest rate expectations [1][3]. Group 2 - The Japanese yen is weakening due to concerns from the Bank of Japan regarding the impact of tariffs on exports and corporate confidence, leading to a preference for a wait-and-see approach rather than immediate rate hikes [3]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan has created a unique market dynamic, with traders engaging in "sell USD, buy EUR" and "buy USD, sell JPY" strategies simultaneously [3]. - The upcoming PCE price index and ISM manufacturing index will serve as critical tests for the dollar's strength, with potential implications for positioning in the currency market [3]. Group 3 - The euro's upward movement faces challenges, including the need for parliamentary approval for budget expansion, which could reverse optimistic expectations if disputes arise over deficit limits and spending structures [4]. - The British pound is also under pressure from persistent inflation and growth concerns following the Bank of England's tightening cycle [4]. - Market participants are advised to monitor the dynamics of interest rate differentials and fiscal expectations, as unexpected developments in European budgets or Japanese monetary policy could quickly alter current trading strategies [4].

导语 ： 前美联储理事凯文·沃什，国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特，财政部长斯科特·贝森特， 都是潜在人选 。 一些人还提到了前世界银行行长 大卫·马尔帕斯 （David Malpass）和美联储理事 克里斯托弗·沃勒 （Christopher Waller）作为竞争者。 由于新主席要等到明年5月才会正式上任，若在夏季或秋季宣布人选，时间将远早于传统的三到四 个月过渡期。提前宣布人选可能会使新任主席在鲍威尔任期结束前，像"副驾驶"一样影响市场对利 率走向的预期，试图在背后左右货币政策。 当被问及特朗普是否考虑提前宣布美联储主席人选时，白宫回应称，美联储应该实施促进增长的货 币政策。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）表示："政府目前正在为推动经济、就业和投资增长奠定基础 ——包括通过那部'伟大的宏大法案'，是时候让货币政策与这一议程相配合，支持美国的经济复兴 了。" 特朗普总统因对美联储采取的 缓慢降息 政策感到不满，正考虑提前宣布接替现任主席 杰罗姆·鲍威 尔 （Jerome Powell）的人选，尽管鲍威尔的任期还剩下11个月。 据知情人士透露，特朗普最近一直在考虑提前在9月或10月选出并宣布鲍威 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged during the recent FOMC meeting, signaling a hawkish stance [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve announced on June 18 that the target range for the federal funds rate remains at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting where no action was taken [1]. - Since September of the previous year, the Fed has cut rates three times, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points [1]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the potential tariff policies from President Trump could lead to "significant" inflation risks, prompting a cautious approach in policy-making [3]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts of 25 basis points each are expected this year, consistent with previous forecasts [3]. - Economic growth expectations have been downgraded from 1.7% to 1.4%, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted from 4.4% to 4.5% [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Reactions - The Fed's semiannual monetary policy report highlighted that while short-term inflation expectations have risen due to tariff concerns, long-term expectations remain at pre-pandemic levels [4]. - The overall inflation rate in May was reported at 2.4%, with declining housing costs being a significant factor in controlling inflation [5]. - The dollar index has weakened this year, influenced by trade policy changes affecting investor sentiment towards the U.S. economic outlook [5]. - UBS's Chief Investment Officer for Greater China anticipates that the Fed may begin rate cuts in September, potentially leading to three cuts within the year, depending on economic and market conditions [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is being closely monitored by the Fed, with potential impacts on energy prices, although the long-term effects on inflation are expected to be limited [3]. - The tension in the Middle East has contributed to rising price pressures, further complicating the inflation landscape [5].

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | | 2025/6/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1759.900 | 21.6↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1325.6 | +37.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -13.10↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 434.30 | | | 270.80 | -33.70↓ | | EC合约基差 | -19.70↓ | 177.24 | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -2043↓ | 41485 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 239.51↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1937.14 | | | 2,083.46 | -825.22↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -218.65↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1869.59 | | | 1,227.97 | -0.10↓ | | ...