Group 1: Market Overview - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 16,970 yuan, reaching a high of 17,030 yuan and a low of 16,890 yuan, closing at 16,920 yuan, up 70 yuan or 0.42% [1] - The latest LME lead price reported at 1,978.5 USD, down 6 USD [1] - The average price for ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead was reported at 17,025 yuan, an increase of 75 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Macro Analysis - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a weaker dollar, providing liquidity support for dollar-denominated commodities like lead [2] - LME inventory continues to decrease, with a weekly reduction of 3,500 tons, reinforcing bullish sentiment and expectations of tight supply in the global market [2] - Domestic macro sentiment is improving, but the impact on lead demand is undergoing structural changes, with traditional infrastructure support weakening due to capital flow towards debt reduction [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lead market is characterized by "internal tightness and external shortage," with supply facing rigid gaps due to raw material shortages and environmental production limits affecting domestic recycled lead [3] - While primary lead production is recovering, delivery brand output is tightening due to maintenance, and LME inventory outflows are exacerbating global supply tightness [3] - Demand shows structural weakness, with core support from seasonal replacement demand for automotive starter batteries, but electric bicycle battery demand is weak due to new standards and export barriers [3] Group 4: Spot Market and Price Forecast - The current lead spot market is in a weak balance supported by low inventory, with traders reluctant to sell, leading to increased spot premiums [4] - Short-term price trends are expected to show strong fluctuations, with lead prices likely to continue high-level oscillations in the near term [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the real estate sector [5] Core Insights - In the first 11 months of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 15% year-on-year, while the average transaction floor price increased by 9% year-on-year [1][20] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to November 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) with 96.2 billion yuan, China Resources Land with 75.7 billion yuan, and China Merchants Shekou with 75.4 billion yuan [2][89] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5% in residential land transaction area, but a 13% increase in average transaction price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first 11 months of 2025, the total supply of land in 100 cities decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, with a total transaction area of 10.68 billion square meters [10] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for January to November 2025 was 348 million square meters, down 16.5% year-on-year, while the transaction area was 221 million square meters, down 15.1% year-on-year [20][1] Land Transaction Prices - The average transaction floor price for residential land in 100 cities increased by 9.4% year-on-year, reaching 6,295 yuan per square meter [1][55] - In November 2025, the average transaction price for residential land in first-tier cities was 39,283 yuan per square meter, up 29.5% year-on-year [66] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.1% in new land reserve value, totaling 861.8 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [81] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve area were China Overseas Land & Investment (4.38 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.63 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.14 million square meters) [89] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In November 2025, the core 30 cities recorded a total of 208 residential land transactions, with a total area of 1.529 million square meters, down 14.4% year-on-year [94] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 2.2%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [94] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, recommending Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [4][117] - It also highlights the potential of companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, recommending China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][117] - The report sees long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [4][117]

Core Viewpoint - The partnership between Ruian Real Estate and several local groups marks a significant step in urban renewal in Shanghai's Pudong district, specifically in the Sanlin area, revitalizing a historic town with new development opportunities [2][3]. Group 1: Partnership and Project Details - Ruian Real Estate has entered into a joint venture with Shanghai Lujiazui Group, Shanghai Pudong Real Estate Group, and Shanghai Sanlin Asset Management Group to develop the Sanlin urban renewal project [2]. - The joint venture will establish a company where Shanghai Lujiazui holds 40%, Ruian Real Estate's Shanghai Ruian Urban Renewal holds 39%, and the other two groups hold 11% and 10% respectively, giving Ruian an effective stake of 13.26% [2]. - The total capital commitment for the project is 9.162 billion yuan, with a registered capital of 2.32 billion yuan, and Ruian's contribution is approximately 1.215 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Project Scale and Market Positioning - The project covers a total construction area of approximately 723,900 square meters, primarily designated for residential and commercial use [3]. - The Sanlin project is seen as an upgrade of Ruian's previous "New World" model, following similar successful developments in other historical areas [3]. - The location of the Sanlin project is strategically advantageous, being close to the Qiantan South area, which may offer better development potential compared to previous projects [3]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Strategic Focus - Ruian Real Estate's chairman emphasized a focus on Shanghai and maintaining stable cash flow through light asset management [4]. - As of mid-2025, Ruian's financial position shows 5.5 billion yuan in cash and bank deposits against total debts of 29.927 billion yuan, indicating a relatively stable financial status [4]. - The commitment of 1.215 billion yuan is expected to exert limited pressure on the company's cash flow, allowing it to secure long-term benefits from core area projects while strengthening its market position in urban renewal [4].

Core Insights - The Nanjing municipal government signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Rongtong Group, aiming to enhance collaboration in asset revitalization, project promotion, and emerging industry layout [1] Group 1: Economic Development - Nanjing city officials expressed gratitude for China Rongtong Group's support in the city's economic and social development [1] - The partnership is expected to align with the "14th Five-Year Plan" development strategy, accelerating key project implementation and expanding cooperation areas for mutual benefits [1] Group 2: Company Initiatives - China Rongtong Group's chairman highlighted the company's achievements in asset revitalization in Nanjing and expressed appreciation for the local government's support [1] - The group plans to leverage the strategic cooperation agreement to engage in urban renewal, technology transformation, and new business areas, contributing to the Yangtze River Delta integration and Nanjing metropolitan area development [1]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 11 月推盘未售去化周期较 10 月上升 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 18 日） 挂牌价调涨占比：2025 年 11 月，12 个样本城市挂牌价调涨房源占比从 10 月 的 5.5%下降 0.1 PCT 至 5.4%，同比降幅较 10 月收窄 7.0 PCT 至-48.6%。 周观点：（一）2025 年中央经济工作会议对房地产市场的定调从过去的"更大 力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"变为"着力稳定房地产市场"。"高质量推进 城市更新"、"深化住房公积金制度改革"、"有序推动'好房子'建设"等 表述值得关注，后续或可关注专项债和专项借款等金融工具进一步支持城市更 新，以及住房公积金贷款利率进一步调降、额度进一步提高和住房公积金用途 拓宽等可能性。行业基本面下政策的边际变化可能以及针对未来的压力测试或 依然是资本市场关注的要点。（二）判断净租金回报率与按揭利率之差收窄是 推动新房及二手房的合计总需求筑底的关键观察点；重视在供应缩量预期、供 给品质优化以及购房者画像 ...

Core Viewpoint - Urban renewal is a comprehensive and systematic strategic action aimed at promoting high-quality urban development, focusing on planning, funding, operation, and governance [1][2] Group 1: Urban Renewal Strategy - Urban renewal must emphasize community management as a critical frontline area, requiring effective governance resources to ensure livable urban construction [1] - The complexity of community governance has increased due to diverse populations and varied demands, necessitating innovative methods to mobilize urban construction resources [2] Group 2: Resource Mobilization - There is an urgent need to revitalize various resources in urban construction and promote their descent to the frontline, ensuring that community needs align with urban renewal efforts [2] - Effective resource mobilization requires a balance of sustained effort, humanistic care, and precision in implementation, focusing on people-centered values [3] Group 3: Precision in Governance - Precision in urban renewal involves utilizing advanced technologies like big data and the Internet of Things to identify and address potential issues early [4] - Community frontline serves as a window for residents to perceive urban living quality and acts as a benchmark for evaluating urban renewal effectiveness [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Insights - New home sales in November saw a significant year-on-year decline of 40.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.8%, indicating a worsening market condition [5][15] - Second-hand home sales showed a slight improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 13.5% and a year-on-year decline of 25.7%, reflecting a narrowing of the decline [5][23] - The report anticipates that the real estate policy space will open up in 2026, following the central economic work conference's emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market and reducing inventory [2][5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In November, the new home sales area in 40 cities was 904.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.7% [15][17] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 43.5%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 37.4% [16][25] - The cumulative new home sales from January to November showed an 11.5% year-on-year decrease [15] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home sales area in November was 734.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 13.5% and a year-on-year decline of 25.7% [23][26] - First-tier cities reported a year-on-year decline of 26.0%, while second-tier cities had a decline of 27.2% [24][30] Inventory and Absorption - The new home inventory increased by 0.5% month-on-month and decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with an overall absorption period of 18.0 months [5][15] - The average opening absorption rate in 30 key cities was 34%, remaining stable month-on-month but down 3 percentage points year-on-year [5][15] Land Market - The land transaction volume in November decreased by 20.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% [5][11] - The average land price per square meter increased by 17.9% month-on-month but decreased by 16.7% year-on-year [5][11] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a year-on-year sales decline of 37.1% in November, with a cumulative decline of 18.8% from January to November [5][14] - The land acquisition amount for these companies decreased by 38.4% year-on-year in November [5][14] Financing and Policy - The financing scale for the real estate industry increased by 29% year-on-year in November, with a total issuance of 620 billion yuan [5][14] - The report highlights ongoing urban renewal efforts and the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include various types of commercial real estate [5][14] Market Performance - The real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in November, with an absolute return of -2.8% and a relative return of -0.4% [5][20]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao has significantly improved its urban road network through city renewal initiatives, focusing on enhancing connectivity and traffic efficiency, which supports economic and social development [2][3][4]. Group 1: Urban Road Network Development - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, Qingdao has concentrated on four key areas: rapid network formation, three-dimensional nodes, main road improvements, and secondary road connectivity [2]. - The completion rate of the rapid road network in the eastern urban area has increased from 47.3% to 73.6%, indicating a well-structured "four vertical and five horizontal" rapid road system [2]. - Major rapid road projects, including the Chongqing Elevated Road, have been completed, significantly reducing travel times across the city [3]. Group 2: Key Infrastructure Projects - The Liyang Road Rapid Road integrates multiple transportation modes, enhancing connectivity and reducing travel time from 40 minutes to approximately 15 minutes during non-peak hours [2]. - The Chongqing Elevated Road has reduced peak travel time from 50 minutes to under 20 minutes, greatly improving north-south connectivity in the city [3]. - Over 20 major arterial roads have been constructed, expanding the road network and alleviating traffic congestion in critical areas [4]. Group 3: Traffic Management and Efficiency - The construction of key interchanges, such as the Jinjialing Interchange, has improved the road network's capacity and traffic flow, addressing congestion at major junctions [4][5]. - The city has successfully completed the opening of 124 previously unconnected roads, enhancing the overall efficiency of the road network and improving citizens' travel experiences [5].

众口难调，那就商量着办。"社区一趟趟跑，红茶议事会一场场开，我们都看在眼里。"刚走到小区 广场，就有两位阿姨一把拉住了蚕花园社区党委书记、居委会主任张振峥。她们说老旧小区改造期间每 周一次现场会，实打实给百姓办事，"你看看，这两年变化太大了。" 最让居民津津乐道的，是负一层老舞厅的华丽转身。这个存在了二十年的地下舞厅，在改造中变身 为大运河拱宸桥城市共生记忆馆，楼上新建的综合运动场则满足了不同年龄段居民的需求。新与旧的融 合，让年轻人点赞，也让老住户们称心。 改造带来的不仅仅是硬件升级。张振峥刚刚收到的一份通知被争相传看，在这份《浙江省2025年度 完成城市更新社区试点建设名单》里，蚕花园未来社区也在其中。"我们真的太自豪了，这件事是全体 居民一起办成的。"作为拱北小区业委会成员，陈新新参与了建设的全过程。 从"老破小"到"新家园"，小区的变迁描绘着城市更新的痕迹。正如拱宸桥街道社区治理服务中心副 主任周芬所言："改造不仅改变了小区的'面子'，更提升了居民生活的'里子'。"（记者 詹丽华 共享联盟· 拱墅 柳景春 徐晗翎） 陈新新家住在杭州市拱墅区拱宸桥街道拱北小区，5个坊，5719户居民，是典型的老旧小区， ...

Group 1 - The city government emphasizes the need to implement strategies for expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption potential, and increasing effective investment to promote high-quality urban development [1] - In the Yangtze River New Area, the focus is on building a modernized hub that integrates transportation, industry, and urban quality, aiming to enhance the region's economic capabilities [1] - The government aims to foster the development of key industries such as new energy, new materials, life health, and green shipping within the Yangtze River New Area [1] Group 2 - In Qiaokou District, the government is prioritizing urban renewal projects to enhance the quality of traditional commercial areas and medical resource clusters, thereby expanding new spaces for domestic demand growth [2] - The district is encouraged to innovate project management and construction models to ensure high-quality housing and services [2] - In Hanyang District, the focus is on accelerating the construction of key functional areas and enhancing regional collaboration to drive urban quality improvements [2] Group 3 - The government is committed to strengthening technological innovation and promoting the transformation of traditional manufacturing industries while fostering emerging sectors such as life health and digital economy [2] - There is an emphasis on deepening the integration of culture and tourism to enhance the competitiveness of the cultural tourism industry [2]