Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - After the UK and the US reached a trade agreement, market risk sentiment has emerged. The persistently low TC price also indicates that copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 12, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,950 yuan/ton and closed at 78,260 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 78,080 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the previous day, the sentiment of cargo holders to sell was divided. Some enterprises started trading at par at the beginning of the session, dragging down the transaction price. During the mainstream trading period, the price of mainstream flat copper gradually dropped from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to a discount of 50 yuan/ton. Non-registered goods were at a discount of around 100 yuan/ton. As the copper price rose during the day, downstream buyers pressured prices significantly, with transactions at discounts ranging from 140 to 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that China and the US each cancelled 91% of tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of tariffs, leading to a rebound in market risk sentiment and a strengthening of copper prices [3] - **Domestic**: In the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3] - **Mineral End**: Barrick Mining began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the single-letter stock code "B". First Quantum Minerals remains cautiously optimistic about the future of its Cobre Panamá copper mine, and the Panamanian government is evaluating how to restart the mine while safeguarding national interests [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2025, 24 cathode copper production enterprises with a total effective cathode copper production capacity of 12.065 million tons were tracked, a 7.25% increase from the previous year, accounting for 83.84% of the country's total effective production capacity. In April, the output of copper smelting sample enterprises increased significantly, exceeding 1.05 million tons. It is estimated that the cathode copper output in May will increase slightly to 1.07 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.86% and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [5] - **Consumption**: Currently, the copper price is at a high level and shows a volatile trend. Downstream enterprises are becoming more cautious and wait-and-see. The consumption situation in the market has weakened. Last week, the overall market procurement was mainly for rigid demand at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,500 tons to 190,750 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons. On May 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly use dip-buying hedging for operations [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Options**: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 371 billion, 105.5 billion, and 102.1 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 195.6 billion, 67.2 billion, and -27.5 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 163.7 billion, with a net financing amount of 3 billion [1] Group 2: Liquidity Tracking - Last week, the net withdrawal through reverse repos was 781.7 billion, with funds initially tightening and then loosening [3] - This week, there will be 836.1 billion in reverse repos and 125 billion in MLF maturing, while government bond issuance will accelerate alongside the release of 1 trillion in reserve requirement cuts [3] Group 3: Policy and Fundamentals - The central bank announced a reserve requirement cut of 50 basis points, a policy interest rate cut of 10 basis points, and a 25 basis point cut for structural tools [4] - In April, dollar-denominated exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while CPI was -0.1% and PPI was -2.7%, both in line with expectations [4] Group 4: Equity Market - A-shares rose again last week due to post-holiday effects, US-China negotiations, and the India-Pakistan conflict, with major indices recovering all losses since the trade war began in April [6] - The total A-share financing balance reached 1,797.138 billion, an increase of 5.833 billion compared to April 29 [6] Group 5: Debt Market Strategy Outlook - The first quarter monetary policy report indicates a shift towards encouraging banks to increase credit issuance, suggesting a continued loose liquidity environment [7] - The market is concerned about the impact of tariff shocks on exports, but there is a clear supportive policy stance expected to hedge against export declines [7]

特朗普在4月9日宣布"重大买入机会"后，美国股市迎来反弹，标普500指数累计涨幅接近17%，按21天 滚动基准计算，这是标普500指数在特朗普两届任期内取得的最大涨幅。 回顾过去几个月的股市变化，特朗普的言论对市场的影响非常大。在4月初，据央视新闻，美国实施 10%普遍关税以及对汽车、钢铁和铝材等特定行业的关税措施，导致标普500指数自2月份峰值，一度跌 近19%。 随后，在特朗普4月9日表示"现在是买入的好时机"后（几个小时后，他暂停了部分关税），美股在当月 反弹逾16%。 但特朗普的"喊买"并没有止步于此。特朗普在5月8日再次强调，如果贸易协议与减税相结合能够取得成 果，"你最好现在就出去买股票。"讲话后，美股实现两连阳，标普当日收涨0.58%。 不过目前，市场对美股走势看法不一。BNY Mellon宏观策略师Geoffrey Yu认为，我们怀疑市场会忘记4 月发生的事，但最坏情况的可能性现在已经成为遥远的记忆，人们将据此进行资产配置。 而摩根士丹利策略师Wilson警告称美国股市尚未安全无虞。有"华尔街最准分析师"之称的美银分析师 Hartnett预计，市场将在贸易协议公布后"买预期、卖事实"。Sing ...

美国与英国之间的贸易（框架）协议"相当微不足道"。 英国央行货币政策委员会（MPC）成员Taylor：如果六个月之前掌握（美国总统特朗普的）关税苗头， 将反思政策。 不清楚关税问题是否会"半路折返"。 ...

Group 1 - The easing of tensions in the US-China trade war has led to a significant rebound in global risk assets, with US stock markets experiencing substantial gains [3][5][6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged approximately 1000 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rose over 3.5% and 2.7% respectively [1][6] - Market optimism is driven by hopes for a broader agreement between the two largest economies, resulting in a decline in gold and safe-haven currencies [3][5] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between the US and China exceeded expectations, with a framework for ongoing dialogue established, which is positively viewed by the stock market [5][7] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet announced that both countries agreed to lower "reciprocal" tariffs by 115% within 90 days, reducing US tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods to 10% [7] - UBS expects that the uncertainty surrounding trade has peaked, predicting that by the end of the year, the actual tariff levels in the US will gradually decrease to around 15% [8] Group 3 - Major technology stocks saw significant increases, with Apple rising nearly 6% as it considers raising prices for its upcoming iPhone series while avoiding attributing the price hike to US tariffs [8][9] - Individual stock performances included Micron Technology up 8.57%, Amazon up 7.54%, and Tesla up 6.79%, reflecting a strong rally in the tech sector [9] - The Chinese stock index also rose over 4%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 400 points, indicating a positive market response in China as well [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite improved sentiment in the U.S. stock market, it is premature to declare an all-clear signal, as key factors supporting the rebound have not fully materialized [1] - Morgan Stanley's strategist Michael Wilson identifies four key factors for the U.S. stock market's rebound: optimism over a trade agreement with China, stable earnings expectations, a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, and a ten-year Treasury yield below 4% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield has exceeded 4.4%, and Morgan Stanley believes that a yield above 4.5% will pose a valuation challenge [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the U.S. and China have canceled a total of 91% of tariffs, which has led to a rise in S&P 500 futures and risk assets [1] - During the earnings season, tariff issues have been a focal point for companies, with a record number of mentions in earnings calls, leading about 30 companies to withdraw or suspend earnings guidance due to tariff uncertainties [2] - The S&P 500 index has broken through the previous resistance level of 5500 points and returned to the range of 5500-6100 points, with the next significant technical test being the convergence of the 200-day and 100-day moving averages at 5750-5800 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a weakening demand for steel and a significant decline in thermal coal prices, leading to concerns about the peak of iron and steel production [1] - The central trading focus for coking coal and coke is on the trajectory of finished steel demand, changes in coking coal supply, and the ongoing drop in thermal coal prices [1][1] - The article notes that the domestic monetary policy has been adjusted with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [1][1] Group 2 - The article reports that in April, China's total goods trade value reached 3.84 trillion yuan, with exports of 2.27 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.3%, while imports grew by 0.8% to 1.57 trillion yuan [1][1] - It mentions that the supply of thermal coal is expected to remain weak due to increased inventory at coastal power plants and high stock levels at northern ports, leading to a continued downward pressure on prices [1][1] - The article expresses concerns that the demand for finished steel may have peaked, with the market increasingly worried about the risks associated with iron and steel production reaching its maximum capacity [1][1]

【导读】史诗级利好，中美均将对等关税下调115% 兄弟姐妹们啊，史诗级利好，市场直线拉升。 联合声明远超预期 5月12日盘后，史诗级利好来了！中美发布联合声明，中美同意暂时降低部分关税90天！ 其中双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取以下举措： 美国将（一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税， 其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据2025年4月8日 第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。 中国将（一）相应修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保 留对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税，并取消根据税委会公告2025年第5号和第6号对这些商品的加征关税；（二）采取必要措施，暂停或取 消自2025年4月2日起针对美国的非关税反制措施。 采取上述举措后，双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。中方代表是国务院副总理何立峰，美方代表是财政部长斯科特·贝 ...

美国财长贝森特：英国和瑞士在贸易协议方面走在前列，欧盟速度要慢得多。 ...