"1克黄金突破1240元，一年涨超55%！"打开行情软件的瞬间，不少人被黄金的涨势震撼。与此同时，超市货架上的日用品悄然涨价，存款利息跑不赢通 胀，"钱越来越不值钱"成为共识。当"黄金疯涨只是前菜"的说法在市场流传，一个核心问题浮出水面：在货币购买力持续缩水的当下，黄金真的不会贬值 吗？ 金价疯涨的底层逻辑：四大力量托举历史新高 面对持续高涨的金价，"黄金是否会贬值"的疑问本质是对资产安全性的考量。从当前市场格局看，黄金具备多重抗贬值支撑，但并非绝对"金身不破"。 长期支撑黄金避免大幅贬值的核心力量来自三大维度。首先是央行购金的持续性，作为掌握黄金定价权的关键力量，全球央行的增持趋势未现逆转，且其购 入的黄金往往长期持有，不会因短期价格波动抛售，形成了市场的"定海神针" 。其次是低利率周期的延续性，若美联储开启降息周期，黄金的机会成本优 势将持续存在，吸引资金流入。最后是避险需求的刚性，全球政治经济格局中的不确定性短期内难以消除，黄金的避险属性不会失效。 但黄金短期贬值的风险同样不可忽视。历史已给出警示，2025年3月国际金价曾因多国开启和谈、美联储官员释放鹰派信号，出现单日超2%的暴跌，背后是 机构获利盘集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around Jack Ma's prediction regarding the challenges faced by individuals holding cash deposits starting in 2025 highlights significant economic concerns that are relevant to the general public [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - Cash may increasingly lose its value due to inflation, where the growth rate of money supply outpaces the production of goods and services, leading to a decline in purchasing power [3]. - The impact on depositors is that traditional savings accounts may not yield returns that keep pace with real inflation, resulting in a decrease in the quantity of goods that can be purchased over time [3]. - Suggested strategies include diversifying asset allocation, investing in real estate, stocks, or gold, and enhancing personal skills to counter inflation [3]. Group 2: Opportunity Costs - The risk of missing wealth growth opportunities is significant, especially during economic transitions that present new investment opportunities [5]. - For depositors, holding large amounts of cash can lead to missed chances for substantial returns from emerging industries or personal development [5]. - Recommendations include staying informed about policy directions and technological trends, and cautiously exploring new investment areas [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Management - Individuals with cash deposits should assess their financial situation, set clear financial goals, and plan asset allocation across various categories to mitigate risks [7][9]. - Seeking professional financial advice is encouraged for those unfamiliar with investment strategies [9]. - A warning is issued against blindly following online predictions, emphasizing the importance of financial literacy and independent thinking [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising savings willingness among Chinese citizens post-pandemic, highlighting the challenges faced by households holding large amounts of cash due to inflation, limited investment options, and declining deposit interest rates [1][3][4]. Group 1: Savings Trends - In the first quarter of 2023, China's total household deposits reached an astonishing 9.9 trillion yuan, with an average monthly increase of 3.3 trillion yuan [1]. - The high savings rate is attributed to the perceived risks in stock markets, real estate, and financial products, making bank deposits appear safer [1]. Group 2: Challenges of Holding Cash - Households with large cash reserves face three main challenges: 1. Inflation erodes cash value, making it difficult to maintain purchasing power [1]. 2. Limited investment channels hinder the ability to preserve or grow wealth, with real estate and fund markets showing volatility and risks [3]. 3. Continuous decline in deposit interest rates, with rates below 4% becoming rare, exacerbates the situation for cash holders [4]. Group 3: Counterarguments to Cash Holding Concerns - Holding large amounts of cash provides a buffer against financial stress, allowing families to manage living expenses more comfortably compared to those with high debt [6]. - Current market conditions suggest that asset bubbles in real estate and stock markets may not be fully resolved, making it prudent for investors to wait before entering these markets [6]. - For risk-tolerant investors, a diversified asset allocation strategy can mitigate risks while seeking higher returns, such as splitting cash between bank deposits, low-risk financial products, and equity funds [6].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged past $4,300, marking a historic milestone as the first global asset to exceed a market capitalization of $30 trillion, indicating extreme overbuying and potential risks outweighing rewards [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has experienced a continuous rise for seven weeks, an unprecedented occurrence in history [2][3] - The current state of extreme overbuying suggests that the risks associated with gold investments are greater than the potential rewards at this time [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company does not recommend increasing positions in gold at this moment, suggesting that investors should hold existing positions instead [3][7] - A long-term allocation of at least 20% in gold is advised for asset diversification and risk management, contrasting with short-term trading strategies [7][8] Group 3: Central Bank Influence - Central banks globally are expected to continue purchasing gold, which will provide structural support for gold prices [4][5] - The proportion of gold reserves held by central banks has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a significant backing for gold prices [5] Group 4: Demand Factors - The primary support for gold prices stems from safe-haven demand, particularly during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty [6][7] - Institutional demand, such as from ETFs, is also a significant factor influencing gold prices, as these entities seek to track gold's performance [6][7] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The extreme overbought condition of gold is deemed unsustainable, and caution is advised as market dynamics may shift [7][9] - The current market environment reflects a broader skepticism towards fiat currencies, with gold's value rising significantly against paper money [8][9]

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index decreased by 3.31% this week, closing at 5392.97 points on October 17 [5] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 8521.04 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.20% decrease compared to the previous week [5] Top Performers - The top ten gainers in the CSI A500 index included: 1. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) with a gain of 12.50% 2. Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) with a gain of 11.57% 3. Huatian Technology (002185.SZ) with a gain of 10.02% 4. Shanghai Jahwa United Co., Ltd. (600315.SH) with a gain of 9.42% 5. Hainan Airport (600515.SH) with a gain of 8.96% 6. Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) with a gain of 8.61% 7. Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH) with a gain of 8.60% 8. Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) with a gain of 8.31% 9. Air China (601111.SH) with a gain of 7.63% 10. China Pacific Insurance (601319.SH) with a gain of 7.32% [2] Bottom Performers - The top ten losers in the CSI A500 index included: 1. Shengquan Group (605589.SH) with a loss of 18.04% 2. Wentai Technology (600745.SH) with a loss of 17.17% 3. Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558.SZ) with a loss of 16.98% 4. Leo Group (002131.SZ) with a loss of 16.55% 5. Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ) with a loss of 15.40% 6. Tongfu Microelectronics (002156.SZ) with a loss of 14.98% 7. Yake Technology (002409.SZ) with a loss of 14.35% 8. Lens Technology (300433.SZ) with a loss of 14.26% 9. Zhongding Sealing Parts (000887.SZ) with a loss of 13.99% 10. Robot Technology (300757.SZ) with a loss of 13.95% [2] Fund Performance - All 40 CSI A500 ETFs experienced declines, with notable drops in Huatai-PB's CSI A500 Enhanced ETF and Guolian's A500 Enhanced ETF, both falling over 4% [5] - The total scale of the CSI A500 ETFs fell below 200 billion yuan, with Huatai-PB's fund at 249.03 billion yuan, Guotai's at 226.56 billion yuan, and E Fund's at 221.29 billion yuan [5] Market Insights - Pacific Securities research team suggests a balanced allocation towards low-position sectors, particularly banks and insurance with dividend protection attributes, as well as coal and agriculture sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [6] - Guohai Securities research team indicates that uncertainties from trade frictions may lead to a rotation in market styles, with a shift from overvalued growth sectors to undervalued sectors [6]

2025年10月13日一2025年10月17日 中证A500指数周报 ■▲ 南财快讯 指数表现 最新点位 本周涨跌幅 5392. 97 -3. 31% 本周成交额 日均成交额 成交环比变化 (亿元) (亿元) 42605. 18 8521. 04 -22. 20% 太平洋证券研究团队表示，短期将仓位向低位板块平衡配置将拥有更好的赔率和胜率。主要为具有红利 避险属性的银行、保险，受益于反内卷以及具有红利属性的煤炭，受益于释放内需潜力下，CPI开始边 际好转下同时受贸易冲突升级可能性影响较小的农业、消费板块。同时该团队认为科技板块的行情依旧 未完待续，是本轮牛市的主线，只是短期内安全边际不足，等待拥挤度下降后将迎来新的加仓节点。 国海证券研究团队表示，贸易摩擦的不确定性或促使资金从过度拥挤的交易中撤出，加速不同板块间的 风格轮动，近期高估值的成长板块回调、低估值板块补涨迹象显现。在此国际形势下，资产配置宜采取 均衡偏价值的策略，利用宏观事件导致的错杀行情进行风险再平衡。 中证A500指数(000510.CSI)本周下跌3.31%，截至10月17日收盘，报5392.97点。本周日均平均成交额为 8521.04亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has announced adjustments to the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts, effective from October 21, 2025, in response to increased market volatility and international uncertainties [3][5][6]. Group 1: Margin and Price Fluctuation Adjustments - The price fluctuation limit for both gold and silver futures contracts has been adjusted to 14% [5][6]. - The margin ratio for hedged positions has been set to 15%, while the margin ratio for general positions has been set to 16% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Risk Warnings - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have issued warnings regarding the volatility of precious metal prices, advising investors to be cautious and consider their financial situations before investing [8][12]. - The current international political and economic risks have heightened the potential for significant fluctuations in gold prices [12]. Group 3: Gold Price Trends - As of October 17, the spot gold price fluctuated significantly, reaching $4,333.91 per ounce [15]. - The main gold futures contract on the SHFE has reached a historical high, surpassing the 1,000-point mark [17]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with the price of pure gold jewelry reaching 1,270 yuan per gram [18]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - According to a report from招商证券, several factors are expected to drive gold prices higher in the future, including central banks' continued purchases of gold, a shift in gold ETFs from net sellers to net buyers, and the dual influence of monetary and financial attributes on gold prices [20].

作为偏债混合型FOF基金，富国智悦稳健以"严控风险、稳健增值"为目标，通过"多资产+多策略"配置，助力投资 者在把握行情的同时严格控制波动。从过往历史表现看，偏债FOF呈现出"稳中求进"的鲜明特征。Wind数据显 示，自2019年初至2025年6月末，万得偏债混合型FOF指数累计涨幅达29.5%，远超同期纯债债基指数（21%）、同 业存单AAA指数（18.5%）及货币基金指数（14%）等传统稳健型资产表现，与同期沪深300指数30.7%的表现基本 持平，但波动率大幅降低，风险收益比更具优势。 在资产配置方面，富国智悦稳健以优质纯债为"盾"，采用"中短久期+高等级信用债+票息策略"的投资策略，从利 率风险、信用风险、收益来源三方面构建波动防火墙；同时，这只基金将灵活配置权益、商品、跨境资产，力争 增强收益。在权益配置方面，精选均衡型宽基、行业债基作为持仓，力争稳健跑赢偏股型基金指数。此外，产品 可以配置不同风险收益特征的黄金、港股、美股等资产，上述资产类别的相关性较低，这样做有望进一步优化组 合整体的风险收益比。 这只基金的拟任基金经理是富国基金多元资产投资部多元资产投资总监张子炎，具有14年证券从业经验、6年 ...

W ww 图/ic 近期，"一天一价"的黄金成为当之无愧的市场焦点。在10月7日COMEX黄金期货突破4000美元/盎司的历史大关后，10月15日，金价再度突破4200美元/盎司 大关。 屡创新高的国际金价年内涨幅已超50%，赚钱效应吸引了一波投资者参与黄金投资。Wind数据显示，截至10月15日收盘，年内多只黄金ETF或黄金股ETF均 实现了资金净流入，其中，华安黄金ETF、国泰黄金ETF、博时黄金ETF今年以来资金净流入均超百亿元。 后续，金价将如何演绎？投资者又该如何更好参与黄金市场，丰富资产配置工具？针对相关热点问题，贝壳财经记者采访了中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研 究院院长王红英、工银瑞信黄金ETF基金经理赵栩、苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟、菜百股份高级黄金投资分析师李洋。 "中长期黄金价格仍将维持稳健上涨趋势" 一方面，全球主要央行延续宽松政策，实际利率下行预期仍存；另一方面，地缘冲突与债务风险等不确定性持续发酵，避险需求对金价形成了托底。 不过，投资者也要警惕若美国经济数据超预期或通胀再度回升，可能延缓降息进程，从而抑制金价上行空间的风险。 整体而言，金价中枢仍有望维持高位运行，但波动性或将显著放大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market remains resilient despite recent fluctuations, with structural differentiation evident, particularly in the performance of gold and U.S. stocks, while bonds face slight pressure [1]. Market Overview - In September, the global market continued its strong performance, with most indices rising, except for the dividend sector, Germany, and Vietnam, which saw slight declines. Gold was the standout performer, surging approximately 11% for the month, while Chinese bonds fell about 0.6% [2]. Investment Strategies - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" portfolio achieved a monthly return of 4.41% in September, with a cumulative return of 15.98% year-to-date. Despite a minor decline of 0.17% during a recent market adjustment, the portfolio maintains a strong upward trend. Over the past three years, it has consistently delivered positive returns, averaging over 10% annually, ranking in the top 9% among similar public funds [6]. - The "Lazy Balanced Portfolio" aims to reduce volatility by increasing the proportion of bonds and cash. In September, it recorded a monthly return of 2.84%, with a projected annual return of 5.13% for 2024. Although its returns are slightly lower than the Rui Ding Tou Global Version, it exhibits significantly lower volatility, making it suitable for risk-averse investors [10]. Performance Metrics - The Rui Ding Tou portfolio has a maximum drawdown of -35.21% and an annualized volatility of 18.23%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77, indicating a balanced risk-return profile [12]. - The Lazy Balanced Portfolio has a maximum drawdown of -27.45% and an annualized volatility of 11.01%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.02, reflecting its stability in turbulent market conditions [14]. Market Sentiment - Recent U.S.-China trade tensions are viewed as a temporary shock rather than a trend reversal, with expectations for supportive measures from the upcoming "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" meeting. The overall market resilience suggests potential for further investment opportunities despite short-term volatility [13][22].