Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy expectations are rising to counter increasing external pressures, with potential for incremental policies and fiscal expansion [1]. - The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed is likely to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, with focus on the subsequent rate - cut path [2]. - There are investment opportunities in different commodity sectors, and it is advisable to allocate more to industrial products and precious metals at low prices [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, China faced increased external pressure including weaker exports to the US and potential tariff hikes. The government has signaled more active macro - policies. Economic data showed mixed results: industrial增加值 rose 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales growth slowed to 3.4%, and investment growth was far below expectations. Economic momentum continued to decline in July and August, and incremental policies are expected [1]. - In the US, the August ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, CPI increased to 2.9% year - on - year, PPI growth slowed, and employment data were disappointing, supporting Fed rate cuts. The CBO has lowered the US economic growth forecast [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; precious metals and agricultural products are affected by overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply outlook, the chemical sector has "anti - involution" potential, and agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation but need fundamental support. Precious metals are a good investment opportunity ahead of the Fed's rate - cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to allocate more to industrial products and precious metals at low prices in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The National Bureau of Statistics stated that the national economy in August was generally stable but faced risks. Retail sales in August were 39668 billion yuan, up 3.4% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing decline. Sino - US trade talks were held in Spain from September 14 - 17 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The construction of a unified national market is a major decision of the Party Central Committee, with the basic requirement of "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as glass, coal, and steel may be affected by policies and market sentiment, showing different trends [7][8][10] - The market generally anticipates a new round of policy easing due to the characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption" in China's economic data in August [21] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1所长首推 (Director's Top Picks) - **Glass**: The later period may show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Overnight prices rose significantly, and the market's anti - deflation and anti - involution factors resurfaced. Spot sales have improved to some extent. Although there are still bearish factors such as weak real estate, weak basis, and warehouse receipt pressure, these factors are approaching their limits after the 09 delivery. It is not advisable to be overly bearish before the policy is falsified [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to maintain a strong - trending pattern due to policy expectations and pre - National Day replenishment. The current market shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, and prices being strong". The price bottom has emerged, and the price center is expected to gradually rise [10] 3.2商品研究 (Commodity Research) - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Gold shows a downward - revised non - farm employment trend, and silver breaks through and moves upward. The fundamentals of precious metals show various price changes and trading volume fluctuations. Relevant macro - news includes Sino - US consensus on TikTok, antitrust investigations on NVIDIA, and China's economic data release [17][18][21] - **Copper**: Driven by multiple logics, the price is rising. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are significant mergers and acquisitions and production - related news in the industry [24][26] - **Zinc**: It maintains a volatile pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as antitrust investigations on NVIDIA and payment - term commitments by automobile companies [27][28][29] - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as market expectations of Fed rate cuts [30][31] - **Tin**: It fluctuates within a range. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are various macro - news such as Sino - US consensus on TikTok [33][34][35] - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum fluctuates within a range, alumina rebounds upward, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market [37][39] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The contradiction in the smelting end of nickel is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the mining end. Stainless steel prices may fluctuate due to the game between long - and short - term logics. There are industry - related news such as project production starts and environmental violations in Indonesia [40][41][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - term demand may exceed expectations, and it shows a volatile pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are industry - related news such as the release of the automobile industry's growth - stabilization plan [47][48][49] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment for industrial silicon has fermented again, and the sentiment for polysilicon has reignited, with the futures price likely to continue rising. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about a solar - cell project investment in Xinjiang [50][51][53] - **Iron Ore**: The price shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern with repeated expectations. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about China's monetary data [54][55] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment has resurfaced, and both show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market and steel production and trade data [58][59][61] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, they show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news about ferrosilicon and manganese silicide prices and steel production data [62][63][64] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They show a wide - range volatile pattern with repeated expectations. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market [65][66] - **Logs**: They show a repeated volatile pattern [68]

国内市场综述 缩量震荡 走势分化 周一（9 月 15 日）大盘缩量震荡，走势分化。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3860.5 点，下跌 0.26%；深成指收 于 13005.77 点，上涨 0.63%；科创 50 上涨 0.18%；创 业板指上涨 1.51%，万得全 A 成交额共 23032 亿元， 较前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 13 个行业上涨，其 中电力设备及新能源、汽车、农林牧渔涨幅居前，而 通信、国防军工及综合则跌幅较大。概念方面，高送 转、CRO 及网络游戏等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收涨，谷歌涨超 4% 周一（9 月 15 日），美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 0.11%，标普 500 指数涨 0.47%，纳指涨 0.94%。亚马 逊、苹果涨超 1%，领涨道指。万得美国科技七巨头指 数涨 1.53%，谷歌涨超 4%，特斯拉涨逾 3%。中概股多 数上涨，小马智行涨近 11%，理想汽车涨近 7%。 新闻精要 1. 《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《纵深推 进全国统一大市场建设》 2. 国家统计局：三个"稳"透视国民经济运行"稳" 没有变 3. 美方要求相关方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - Consumption is the ultimate purpose of production and a fundamental driver of economic growth in China, with consumer spending contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025. However, there remains a significant gap between China's household consumption rate and that of developed countries, indicating untapped potential for consumer spending [1]. Group 1: Barriers to Consumption - Market segmentation is a major obstacle to releasing consumption potential, with local market barriers hindering the free flow of resources and fair competition [2]. - Institutional fragmentation raises consumer costs and suppresses purchasing willingness due to varying local standards and hidden barriers [3]. - Structural issues, such as restricted labor mobility and financing difficulties for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), further inhibit consumption potential [4]. - High logistics costs and inadequate infrastructure negatively impact consumer experience, particularly in rural areas [5]. - Elevated costs of cross-regional rights protection diminish consumer confidence, complicating the process of addressing disputes [6]. Group 2: National Unified Market Construction - The construction of a national unified market aims to address deep-seated structural contradictions that hinder consumption potential, providing institutional guarantees for consumption growth [7]. - Optimizing supply structures on the production side can stimulate consumer willingness by aligning supply with diverse consumer demands [8]. - Reducing costs on the distribution side enhances consumer purchasing power, making goods more accessible and affordable [9]. - Meeting diverse consumer needs on the consumption side improves overall consumer experience and satisfaction [9]. - Strengthening rights protection in the market environment enhances consumer confidence, encouraging spending [10]. Group 3: Implementation Strategies - Deepening reforms to eliminate institutional barriers is essential for creating a unified market, ensuring fair competition and equal access to products and services [11]. - Unifying regulatory standards and market rules is crucial for establishing a solid market foundation, particularly in key consumer sectors [12]. - Developing modern logistics networks is necessary to improve distribution efficiency and reduce costs, especially in rural areas [13]. - Enhancing consumer rights protection through technology and unified complaint mechanisms will foster a safer consumption environment [13].

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a sustained rapid growth [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in trade-in related goods [1] - The total import and export volume rose by 3.5% year-on-year in August, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [1] Production and Services - Industrial and service sectors maintained rapid growth, with industrial added value growth rates of 5.7% and 5.2% in July and August respectively [2] - The service production index grew by 5.8% and 5.6% in July and August, outpacing industrial growth [2] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, slightly up from the previous month but unchanged from the same period last year [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, primarily due to declining food prices, while core CPI continued to rise for four consecutive months [1] Investment Trends - Private investment in fixed assets decreased by 2.3% year-on-year from January to August, largely due to a 16.7% decline in real estate development investment [6] - Excluding real estate, private project investment grew by 3% year-on-year, indicating stability in other sectors [6] - Manufacturing sector private investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with 16 out of 31 manufacturing industries experiencing double-digit growth [6][7] Market Dynamics - The construction of a unified national market is enhancing market vitality, with manufacturing profits rising by 4.8% year-on-year from January to July [4] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed positive expectations, with indices for manufacturing and service sectors at 53.7% and 57% respectively in August [4] High-Tech and Infrastructure Investment - Private investment in high-tech industries, particularly information services, grew by 26.7% year-on-year from January to August [7] - Infrastructure private investment increased by 7.5%, surpassing the overall infrastructure investment growth rate [7]

Group 1: National Market Development - Xi Jinping's article emphasizes the need to address issues in the national unified market, focusing on eliminating low-price competition, government procurement irregularities, and local investment attraction problems [1] - The article calls for promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, improving regulatory frameworks, and correcting performance evaluation biases [1] Group 2: International Trade Relations - Chinese officials reached a consensus on resolving TikTok-related issues through cooperation, aiming to reduce investment barriers and enhance economic cooperation [2] - Mexico's president announced discussions on imposing tariffs up to 50% on Chinese goods, with China opposing unilateral and protectionist measures [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Emerging market ETFs saw a fifth consecutive week of inflows, with a total of $2.17 billion in the week ending September 12, 2023, and a year-to-date total of $19.8 billion [3] - China led the inflows with $653.9 million, while Argentina experienced the largest outflow of $6.99 million [3] Group 4: Corporate Developments - CATL's sodium-ion battery has received national standard certification, becoming the world's first certified sodium-ion battery [4] - Longpan Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, with a total sales amount exceeding 6 billion yuan [4] - Tianyang Technology collaborates with Oracle and IBM to provide financial technology services [4] Group 5: Stock Market Activities - Shanghai Construction Engineering clarified that recent news regarding the Koka gold mine was based on previously disclosed information and does not impact current operations significantly [5] - Loongson Technology announced the completion of its first GPGPU chip, the 9A1000, with plans for delivery within the third quarter [6] - Purun Co. is planning to acquire controlling stakes in a high-performance 2D NAND storage chip company [7] Group 6: Shareholder Changes - China Pacific Insurance announced a transfer of state-owned shares without affecting its controlling shareholder status [8] - Fourhui Fushi reported a reduction in shareholding by its major shareholders, decreasing their combined stake from 65.74% to 64.80% [9] Group 7: New Projects and Investments - Junsheng Electronics secured a global automotive intelligence project with an estimated total order value of approximately 15 billion yuan, set to begin production in 2027 [10] - Xinda Zheng plans to acquire at least 51% of Jiaxin Liheng Facility Management, leading to a significant asset restructuring [10] - Dingtong Technology intends to invest up to $15 million to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam for developing and producing communication connectors and cooling products [11]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - China's industrial value-added in August increased by 5.2% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 0.5% from January to August [4][7] - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,860.50, down 0.26%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,005.77, up 0.63% [3][4] - The market is supported by multiple favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on promoting consumption and stabilizing the real estate sector [4][8] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance in August, with a 23.84% increase in the index, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 10.33% [14][15] - The revenue for the semiconductor industry in Q2 2025 was 188.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.87%, with a net profit of 14.76 billion yuan, up 23.99% year-on-year [14][15] - Domestic AI computing chip manufacturers are experiencing rapid growth, with companies like Cambrian achieving a revenue increase of 4425.01% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [14][16] Group 3: Lithium Battery Sector - In August 2025, the lithium battery sector index rose by 13.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with 1.395 million new energy vehicles sold, a year-on-year increase of 26.82% [12][27] - The installed capacity of power batteries reached 52.50 GWh in August, marking a 32.42% year-on-year increase [12][27] - The sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on investment opportunities in the supply chain and solid-state battery technologies [27][28] Group 4: Media and Entertainment Industry - The media sector's revenue for H1 2025 reached 272.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, with net profit rising significantly by 38.08% [19][20] - The gaming sector is highlighted for its strong market demand and favorable policy environment, while the film sector is expected to stabilize in Q3 2025 [19][20] - Investment opportunities are recommended in companies with strong product lines and performance certainty, particularly in the gaming and film sectors [20][21] Group 5: Chemical Industry - The basic chemical industry index rose by 10.21% in August, with sub-sectors like fluorine chemicals and carbon fiber performing well [26] - The overall price decline of chemical products has slowed, indicating potential for improved supply-demand dynamics [26] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with significant profit elasticity and cost advantages, such as pesticides and organic silicon [26]

Company Insights - Nvidia is under further investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for violating the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China, related to its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies six years ago, which may lead to increased transparency in Nvidia's market strategies and provide more growth opportunities for domestic GPU manufacturers [4] Industry Insights - The medical device sector is expected to improve in the second half of the year, with companies beginning to show positive performance based on their operational trends, and the current valuation of the sector is considered reasonable, indicating potential for valuation switching [10] - The low-altitude economy is gaining attention as various regions implement development policies, with significant orders for eVTOL manufacturers and a clear trend towards large-scale development of the industry chain [11]

Macro News - The article highlights a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the resolution of TikTok-related issues, aiming to reduce investment barriers and promote economic cooperation [1][3] - A significant article by Xi Jinping in the latest issue of "Qiushi" emphasizes the need to address chaotic low-price competition among enterprises, particularly in areas suffering from "involution" [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.1% month-on-month decrease in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities in August, with second-hand residential prices also declining by 1.0% [3] Industry News - The State Council issued a notice to enhance comprehensive regulation of the tourism market, focusing on protecting personal information and preventing unfair practices by online travel platforms [5] - The China Automobile Industry Association announced a payment initiative for suppliers, with 17 major automotive companies, including BYD and NIO, committing to adhere to these payment norms [6] - The launch of Hunan's first low-altitude economy internet platform allows users to book drone services similarly to ride-hailing apps, indicating growth in the low-altitude economy sector [8] Company News - BGI Pharma announced that its BGM0504 tablets have been approved for clinical trials in overweight/obese adults, marking a significant milestone as no similar oral formulations have been approved globally [10] - China Pacific Insurance announced a plan for the free transfer of state-owned equity by Shanghai International Group [11] - Longpan Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, indicating a strategic partnership in the battery supply chain [13] Global Market - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new closing highs, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks [12] - International gold prices reached a new record high, with spot gold surpassing $3,685 per ounce, reflecting ongoing market trends [14] Investment Opportunities - Texas Instruments anticipates a 50% growth in its data center business, indicating a recovery in demand for analog chips [18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to support the development of automotive chips and related technologies, highlighting opportunities in the electric and intelligent vehicle sectors [18][19]

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，9月15日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2800亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2800亿元，中标量2800亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日1915亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放885亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 资金面方面，税期之际，银行间市场周一资金面略显收敛，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率上行近5个bp至1.41%上方；匿名点击（X-repo）系统隔夜报价亦 升至1.40%上方，且供给偏少；非银机构以存单和信用债为抵押拆借隔夜资金，报价在1.46%-1.48%左右，较上个交易日走高。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.41%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.68%附近，较上日基本持平。 6. 国债期货收盘 集体上涨 30年期主力合约涨0.21% 10年期主力合约涨0.12% 5年期主力合约涨0.07% 2年期主力合约涨0.01% （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 涨跌不一 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资 ...