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近期政策关注出现变化(国金宏观张馨月)
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-06-16 09:40
《意见》进一步落实了二十届三中全会在城镇化和民生领域的改革部署 。核心思想是通过结构性改 革,推动基本公共服务与户籍脱钩、与人口挂钩,促进政府增加对基本公共服务的投入,减轻消费潜力 最大的中低收入群体,尤其是灵活就业人员、农民工、新就业形态人员在养老、教育、医疗、住房等领 域的负担,提升其消费能力和意愿。 外部环境相对缓和之后,政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展,改革有望再提速。 文:国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 近期改革信号释放加快,反映出外部环境相对缓和后,政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展,改革 进程有望再提速。 6月9日中办、国办印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》(下文简 称"《意见》)。 值得注意的是, 《意见》的成文时间为3月2日,但公布时间为6月9日 ,可能是因 为4-5月的关税密集冲击造成外部不确定性上升,延缓了落实深化改革的政策节奏。 除《意见》外,近期在消费政策方面,更强调完善促消费的长效机制。 6月8日经济日报《金观平:持 续完善促消费长效机制》中提到,"要用好考核'指挥棒',建立完善科学合理的考核指标体系,引导地 方政府和领导干部树立以促消费为导向的政绩观 ...
宏观经济点评报告:改革再提速
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-16 09:09
Group 1: Policy Reforms - The document outlines the implementation of reforms aimed at decoupling basic public services from household registration, allowing non-resident workers to access the same services as local citizens[4] - It emphasizes the need for basic public services to be linked to population changes, promoting a tailored approach for different cities based on their specific circumstances[6] - The central government plans to allocate 400 billion yuan and 420 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025 respectively to support the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations[6] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reforms are expected to enhance the consumption capacity of low- and middle-income groups, particularly migrant workers, by reducing their burdens in areas like education and healthcare[4] - The shift towards a service-oriented government is anticipated to improve public services and attract more population inflow, creating a positive feedback loop for local economies[7] - The report highlights the importance of breaking down barriers in education, healthcare, and housing to ensure equitable access to basic public services across regions[8] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - There is uncertainty regarding the pace of reform implementation, as the process involves multiple sectors and may be complex[10] - Subjectivity in expectations of reform policies could lead to discrepancies between anticipated and actual outcomes[10]
税务部门优化跨区涉税服务
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-14 21:45
Core Insights - The tax authorities have strengthened their service measures to facilitate cross-regional operations for businesses and individuals, enhancing administrative efficiency to support the construction of a unified national market [1][2] - In the first five months of this year, the tax authorities processed 527,700 cross-regional business transactions, and 14,700 taxpayers successfully completed inter-provincial migration, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.52% [1] Group 1 - The tax authorities have implemented a series of measures to address the challenges faced by businesses during cross-regional migration, including optimizing pre-reminders, expediting processing times, and improving post-service support [2] - The average processing time for migration matters has been reduced by 5 to 10 days, allowing eligible businesses to complete their migration on the same day [2] - The tax authorities are committed to continuously optimizing tax payment services and addressing urgent issues faced by taxpayers, translating educational outcomes into practical results for high-quality development [2]
广东“荔”量:破局南果北运,链动粤陕经济
Core Viewpoint - The surge in demand for Guangdong lychees in Xi'an, driven by the popularity of the TV series "Lychee of Chang'an," highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics, connecting southern fruit farmers with northern consumers and enhancing regional agricultural transformation [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The presence of Guangdong lychees in Xi'an this year is unprecedented in terms of distribution and consumer interest, with multiple retailers establishing dedicated display areas for lychees [1]. - There is a notable increase in demand for high-quality lychee varieties, such as "Highzhou White Sugar Lychee" and "Zengcheng Guiwei," leading to faster sales compared to previous years [1][5]. - The daily transaction volume of Guangdong lychees at wholesale markets can reach up to 10 tons, with total seasonal transactions expected to hit tens of thousands of tons [5]. Group 2: Logistics and Supply Chain - Modern logistics solutions, including drone technology and smart cold chain transportation, have effectively addressed the challenges of lychee transportation over long distances [2][7]. - The establishment of a drone network in Guangdong has improved the efficiency of lychee transportation, reducing costs and ensuring product freshness from harvest to market [2][3]. - The integration of various transportation methods has reduced the delivery time from 5-7 days to under 30 hours, enhancing product quality and minimizing losses [7]. Group 3: Agricultural Innovation - Guangdong's agricultural sector is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of ultra-low temperature preservation technology, which helps stabilize supply and demand during peak seasons [3][6]. - The focus on standardized planting and post-harvest processing has improved the quality of lychees, leading to better market acceptance and pricing power [4][6]. - The shift towards a direct supply chain from orchards to consumers is becoming mainstream, with increased collaboration between large retailers and production areas [6][7]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The lychee industry supports approximately 1.8 million jobs in Guangdong, reflecting a broader shift towards modern agricultural practices and economic sustainability [6][8]. - The successful operation of the "Guangdong-Xi'an" lychee supply chain exemplifies the potential for a unified national market, balancing supply and demand across regions [7][8]. - The integration of quality, standardization, and branding in the lychee supply chain serves as a valuable reference for optimizing agricultural product distribution and enhancing regional industry complementarity [7][8].
“三位一体”推动统一大市场建设
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-06 21:43
Core Viewpoint - The construction of a national unified market is progressing steadily, aiming to unleash domestic demand potential and solidify economic recovery through systematic reforms focusing on "institutional innovation, technological empowerment, and governance collaboration" [1][2]. Group 1: Progress and Achievements - Since the issuance of the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Market" in April 2022, various reform measures have been implemented, including the pilot program for rural collective operating construction land and the official operation of the inter-provincial electricity spot market [1]. - The introduction of the "Guidelines for the Construction of a National Unified Market (Trial)" at the beginning of this year has clarified the implementation path from three dimensions: requirements, prohibitions, and encouragements [1]. - The launch of a special action to standardize enterprise-related law enforcement has provided legal support for the construction of a unified market [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Barriers - The construction of a national unified market has entered a complex phase, with deep-rooted issues such as hidden barriers in bidding processes and enterprise registration obstacles persisting in many areas [2]. - Local protectionism has evolved, with some regions shifting from explicit approvals to implicit subsidies, leading to differentiated regulatory practices [2]. - These challenges increase institutional transaction costs and hinder the full realization of the advantages of a large-scale market [2]. Group 3: Strategic Focus Areas - To address these challenges, the focus should be on "institutional innovation, technological empowerment, and governance collaboration" as a systematic reform approach [2]. - In terms of institutional innovation, efforts are being made to deepen the market-oriented reform of factors, streamline the "Fair Competition Review Regulations," and enhance the flow of factors [2]. - Technological empowerment includes accelerating the cultivation of data factor markets and promoting the sharing of digital infrastructure, exemplified by the launch of the first cross-provincial freight station in Suzhou, which reduced international logistics costs by nearly 30% [3]. - Governance collaboration aims to improve central-local coordination mechanisms and explore a "negative list + credit supervision" model to enforce market segmentation behavior as a rigid constraint [3].
第七届西洽会闭幕 签约重大项目247个
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-05-25 15:55
Core Insights - The 7th China Western International Investment and Trade Fair (West Expo) concluded in Chongqing, signing a total of 247 major projects, with concentrated project agreements amounting to over 200 billion yuan [1][2] - The theme of this year's West Expo was "New West, New Manufacturing, New Services," aiming to create a platform for economic and trade exchanges that connects the western region with the rest of the country and the world [1] Group 1: Project Signings and Financial Impact - A total of 124 concentrated project agreements were signed, exceeding 200 billion yuan, while projects from various districts and counties signed agreements totaling over 100 billion yuan [1] - The global procurement matchmaking event attracted buyers from 32 countries, resulting in an intended signing amount of approximately 65 million yuan [2] - The establishment of the China Automotive and Motorcycle Alliance for Africa led to project agreements worth 1.65 billion yuan [2] Group 2: International Cooperation and Exhibitions - The exhibition area for international and regional cooperation reached 11,500 square meters, showcasing the achievements of the Belt and Road Initiative and quality consumer goods from both domestic and international markets [1] - Over 30 countries and regions participated, with notable brands making their debut, including the Dutch children's brand Fanny & Friends [1] - Activities promoting regional cooperation included discussions on the green, high-end, and intelligent transformation of the food industry between Malaysia and Chongqing [2] Group 3: Regional Collaboration and Trade Promotion - Four inter-provincial negotiation activities were held to enhance regional cooperation, with Chongqing and Guangdong reaching investment and trade cooperation agreements exceeding 2 billion yuan [2] - The "Yuli Xiangban · Yilu Tongxing" national production and sales matchmaking conference facilitated contracts worth over 300 million yuan between Chongqing brand merchants and Easy Convenience [2] - Specialized negotiation meetings with provinces like Ningxia and Liaoning focused on deepening cooperation in energy, agricultural products, and industrial manufacturing [2]
5月24日周六《新闻联播》要闻18条
news flash· 2025-05-24 12:44
Group 1 - The construction of a national unified market is accelerating and deepening [3][8] - The mechanical industry showed stable production growth from January to April [7] - The launch of the "2025 Greater Bay Area Consumption Season" and the media action "Foreign Trade Quality Products Reach the Bay Area" [11] Group 2 - The sales of digital products, including mobile phones, have been boosted by subsidies, exceeding 140 billion yuan [12] - The release of guidelines to promote efficient enterprise migration registration [13]
毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟:货币政策宽松空间明显打开 后续将发力稳就业稳增长
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-20 13:26
本报记者 闫立良 "随着外部环境急剧变化,同时国内房地产市场尚未企稳、物价运行持续低迷,二季度货币政策优先目标将逐步过渡到稳 就业稳增长,宽松空间明显打开。"5月20日,毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,预计年内 降准降息仍有空间,但力度及节奏将根据中美关税进展、二季度出口和经济表现等关键变量相机抉择。 促进价格水平合理回归 5月7日,央行出台包括降准降息、创设并加力实施系列结构性货币政策工具在内的一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 蔡伟认为,一季度出于前期增量政策效果仍在逐渐显现、外部环境尚不明朗以及优先稳定汇率波动风险和银行息差压力等 综合考量,央行对于货币政策的总量操作较为克制,保持"适度宽松"的政策取向不变。 在后续可能的降准降息空间释放上,蔡伟分析称,降准方面,央行将配合财政协同发力,并可能通过加大买断式逆回购等 进一步补充流动性。降息方面,央行将综合考量国内外经济形势、利率风险与金融市场波动等因素。 最近三期货币政策执行报告均强调"把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量,推动物价保持在合理水平"。蔡伟 表示,这说明当前物价是央行的重要关注指标。 在央行5月9日发布的 ...
国家发展改革委回应21记者:全面清理市场准入不合理规定和做法,实现“非禁即入”
Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has initiated a market access barrier cleanup action to promote the construction of a unified national market, aiming to eliminate unreasonable regulations and practices that hinder market access [1][2]. Group 1: Key Actions and Focus Areas - The action focuses on two main areas: the comprehensive cleanup of unreasonable regulations and the rectification of various unreasonable practices set by local governments [1][2]. - Four specific work arrangements have been established to ensure the effectiveness of the cleanup action, including identifying common access barrier issues, establishing a four-level government coordination mechanism, creating channels for reporting issues, and enforcing local responsibilities for rectification [2]. Group 2: Specific Measures - Fifteen common types of access barrier issues have been identified and made public, such as local approvals for matters already opened at the national level and restrictions on enterprises from other regions [2]. - A mechanism for media supervision has been established, involving the participation of Xinhua News Agency for publicity and oversight, along with a shared case reporting and experience promotion system [2]. - The NDRC has set up a dedicated section on its website for collecting reports on market access barriers, allowing any enterprise or individual to directly report relevant situations [2].
这一指标,上海蝉联第一!
第一财经· 2025-05-19 15:58
2025.05. 19 本文字数:1565,阅读时长大约3分钟 《报告》选取了50个典型城市作为评估对象,对市场环境、法治环境、融资环境、创新环境、政策 环境等指标进行评估。结果显示,各城市在市场环境上的差距持续缩小,市场准入壁垒持续破除,全 国统一大市场建设成效显现。 中国中小企业发展促进中心政策研究处处长金铁鹰对媒体表示 , 此次的参评城市,汇聚了我国近六 成的中小企业,具有广泛性和代表性。通过数据可以看出,我国中小企业科技创新的资金投入力度不 断加大,研发成果转化效率稳步提升。 根据评估结果,副省级以上城市综合优势突出,在全部参评城市综合排名前10位中占据9席,且各项 一级指标得分均值皆高于地级市参评城市。其中,在创新环境和政策环境两个方面的优势最为明显, 中小企业对发展环境满意度评价情况(10分制) 19个副省级城市拥有的国家级创新载体数量占50个参评城市总数的55%,新增发明专利授权量占总 数的76.52%,技术合同成交额占总数的82.07%;超七成副省级以上城市已设立专门的中小企业发展 基金,比地级市高出五成。 评估结果显示,东部参评城市各项一级指标得分均值领先其他区域,参评城市中综合得分排名前1 ...