Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][60]. Core Insights - The consumer market showed a steady recovery in January-February 2026, with total retail sales reaching 8.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, significantly accelerating from December 2025 [3][13]. - The rural market continues to outperform urban areas, confirming the judgment that rural consumption has a higher marginal propensity to consume and greater resilience [3][14]. - Swarovski's brand transformation is yielding results, with 2025 revenue of 1.969 billion euros, an organic growth of 6%, and EBITDA increasing by 12% [4][29]. - Samsonite's revenue for 2025 was 3.498 billion dollars, a slight decline of 2.5%, but showed signs of recovery in Q4 with positive growth in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [4][30]. Summary by Sections Consumer Market Performance - In January-February 2026, retail sales in urban areas grew by 2.7%, while rural areas saw a growth of 3.2%, indicating a 0.5 percentage point advantage for rural consumption [14]. - The share of county and rural retail sales in total retail sales reached 38.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [14]. - Basic and optional upgrade consumption showed positive trends, with retail sales of essential goods growing significantly [23]. Company Performance - Swarovski's revenue growth was supported by a strong performance in direct sales and the North American market, with all regions and channels reporting growth [4][29]. - Samsonite's strategy to expand from traditional travel products to a broader lifestyle category is beginning to pay off, with improvements in direct retail sales [4][30]. Market Trends - The overall consumer recovery is not solely driven by subsidies but is supported by improved purchasing behavior, increased foot traffic, and festive activities [23]. - The demand for experience-oriented, upgraded, and smart green consumption continues to be a major highlight, with significant growth in service retail sales [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [44][46]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival saw record-high travel and consumption data, with inter-regional mobility reaching 2.808 billion people, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. Daily income in consumption-related industries grew by 13.7% compared to the previous year [4][36]. - The tourism sector experienced unprecedented interest, with an average of 1.977 million people entering and exiting the country daily during the Spring Festival, marking a 10.1% increase year-on-year. Macau's daily inbound visitor count reached 173,000, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [4][37]. - Hotel occupancy rates and revenue indicators showed steady recovery, with Huazhu Group reporting a 20% increase in total guests and a peak occupancy rate of 91% during the holiday [4][39]. - The restaurant sector demonstrated growth, with daily sales for monitored retail and restaurant enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year. Notably, Haidilao served over 14 million customers during the holiday period [4][36]. Industry Performance - The consumer services sector's weekly performance was a gain of 1.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.08%. The overall A-share market saw a gain of 2.73% [7][25]. - The hotel and restaurant sectors showed significant gains, with hotel stocks rising by 3.66% and restaurant stocks by 3.87% during the week [12][18]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific companies, such as Luckin Coffee and Trip.com, which saw notable increases in their stock prices [4][31]. Important Announcements - Green Tea Group expects a profit of approximately 460 million to 508 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.4% to 45.1% [31]. - Ctrip anticipates a revenue of 62.4 billion RMB for 2025, with a net profit of 33.3 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% and 95%, respectively [31]. - Excellent Education Group projects a revenue of 1.8 billion to 2.0 billion RMB for 2025, with a net profit of 260 million to 340 million RMB, indicating a growth of approximately 63.3% to 81.5% [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the high consumer sentiment in offline retail and service consumption during the Spring Festival, with increased foot traffic in lower-tier markets and a surge in offline spending [1]. Group 1: Investment Insights - The tourism and travel sector exceeded expectations during the Spring Festival, with a positive outlook for related sectors such as hotels and scenic spots [2]. - Certain brands experienced long queues during the holiday, indicating potential for better-than-expected data [2]. - The adjustment of China-US tariffs is recommended to benefit cross-border e-commerce [2]. - The report includes insights from various cities, focusing on the performance of gold and jewelry, dining, hotels, supermarkets, and trendy toys during the Spring Festival [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - **Hotels**: Leading hotel groups are expanding into lower-tier markets, with minimal price differences among brands. Many consumers in these areas are less familiar with hotel brands, relying on online travel agencies for bookings [2]. - **Dining and Tea**: Warm weather, new product launches, and subsidies contributed to strong offline consumption, with lower-priced tea and fast food performing better in lower-tier markets compared to high-tier cities [2]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Expectations for price increases in gold by February 28, with promotional activities during the Spring Festival leading to high demand. Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, with a focus on value [3]. - **Supermarkets**: There is a noticeable difference in customer flow, with lower-tier markets showing strong demand for experiential shopping. Popular items include prepared foods and gift boxes, with a preference for offline purchases [3]. - **Trendy Toys**: Young consumers drive demand, with holiday traffic boosted by student vacations. Limited edition and IP collaboration products are particularly popular [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing trend of online group buying and live streaming services penetrating rural and suburban areas, significantly changing the consumption habits of middle-aged and elderly consumers [1][2][4]. Group 1: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Middle-aged and elderly consumers are increasingly using group buying platforms for purchasing tickets and services, indicating a shift in their shopping habits [2][4]. - The integration of online ticket purchasing and offline verification has streamlined the visitor experience at tourist attractions, reducing wait times and operational pressures [2][4]. - Consumers are actively comparing prices across different platforms, demonstrating a heightened price sensitivity and savvy shopping behavior among all age groups [1][2][4]. Group 2: Impact of Live Streaming and Social Media - Live streaming has become a popular tool for local farmers to sell products, such as strawberries, directly to consumers, showcasing the effectiveness of social media in driving sales [9][11]. - The use of social media platforms like Douyin (TikTok) for promoting local businesses and products has led to increased consumer engagement and sales, particularly during peak seasons like the Spring Festival [9][14]. - The combination of live streaming and group buying has created a new marketing channel for local businesses, allowing them to reach a broader audience [9][11]. Group 3: Group Buying as a Norm - Group buying has become a common practice among consumers, with many actively seeking out deals and discounts for various services, including dining and entertainment [21][23]. - The flexibility of group buying packages, such as the ability to refund unused portions, has made it an attractive option for consumers looking to save money [20][23]. - The trend of using group buying to enhance the value of everyday purchases has become ingrained in consumer habits, reflecting a shift towards more cost-effective shopping strategies [23][30]. Group 4: Industry Adaptation - Businesses are adapting to the rise of group buying by offering tailored packages and promotions to attract customers, especially during high-demand periods like holidays [24][31]. - The integration of group buying into various service sectors, including dining, entertainment, and beauty services, indicates a significant shift in how these industries operate and engage with consumers [21][24][31]. - The competitive landscape among service providers has intensified, with many relying on group buying platforms to drive traffic and increase customer retention [23][31].

Group 1 - The domestic consumption market showed strong resilience during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, driven by the holiday economy, with lower-tier markets becoming a structural highlight [1][3] - National key retail and catering enterprises reported an average daily sales increase of 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025 during the first four days of the holiday [1] - The sales of upgraded products surged, with smart wearable device sales increasing by 19.7% in the first three days of the holiday, including a 250% increase in smart glasses and a 48.6% increase in smart blood glucose meters [1] Group 2 - Restaurant reservations for New Year's Eve and Spring Festival gatherings were booming, with a 60% increase in search volume for must-try restaurants during the holiday period [2] - Haidilao reported serving over 14 million customers across its nationwide stores during the nine-day holiday, with significant demand from lower-tier cities [2] - New-style tea beverage consumption also saw explosive growth, with some lesser-known destinations experiencing sales increases of up to 4500% [2] Group 3 - The trend of returning home for the New Year created new consumption scenarios, with many young people opting to stay in hotels in their hometowns, leading to a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in hotel night stays in third to fifth-tier cities [3] - In popular return-home cities like Zhoukou, hotel order volume saw a staggering 77% year-on-year increase, indicating an upgrade trend in accommodation consumption in lower-tier markets [3] - The 2026 Spring Festival holiday highlighted the recovery of first-tier city business districts while lower-tier cities and county markets emerged as new engines for driving domestic demand due to population return and upgraded consumption habits [3]

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival film box office (including pre-sales) exceeded 5 billion yuan, with "Fast and Furious 3," "Silent Awakening," "Bounty Hunter: Wind Rises in the Desert," and "Boonie Bears: Year of the Bear" ranking as the top four films [1] - The total annual film box office for 2026 has surpassed 7.5 billion yuan, exceeding North America's box office performance, making it the leading single market globally [1] Group 1: Film Highlights - The Spring Festival film season featured a diverse range of genres including comedy, action, animation, and science fiction, contributing to sustained viewer interest [2] - "Fast and Furious 3" showcased upgraded production scale and storytelling, captivating audiences with thrilling racing scenes and a compelling narrative [2] - "Silent Awakening" focuses on contemporary espionage, depicting a national security team's rapid response to a critical intelligence leak, utilizing dynamic cinematography to create a tense atmosphere [3] Group 2: Audience Engagement - Viewers expressed appreciation for the portrayal of national security work in "Silent Awakening," highlighting the film's ability to make the profession relatable and impactful [3] - "Bounty Hunter: Wind Rises in the Desert" is noted for its authentic martial arts action and emotional storytelling, resonating with audiences who long for traditional martial arts cinema [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - The "Film+" initiative has been upgraded to stimulate economic activity during the holiday season, integrating film viewing with broader consumer experiences [5] - Various regions implemented promotional activities linking movie tickets with shopping discounts, effectively boosting both film and retail revenues [5][6] - The film industry is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of holiday economic growth, with local initiatives enhancing consumer engagement and spending [6][7] Group 4: Market Trends - Smaller cities have shown remarkable box office performance during the Spring Festival, becoming key contributors to overall revenue, aided by AI ticket purchasing methods [7] - The trend of integrating film experiences with local tourism and cultural heritage is gaining traction, attracting audiences to film-related destinations [7]

Box Office Performance - The total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival period (including pre-sales) exceeded 5 billion yuan, with "Fast Life 3," "Silent Awakening," "Bounty Hunter: Winds Rise in the Desert," and "Bears: Year of the Bear" ranking as the top four films [1] - The annual box office for 2026 has surpassed 7.5 billion yuan, exceeding North America's box office performance and ranking as the global single-market box office champion [3] Film Variety and Audience Engagement - The 2026 Spring Festival showcased a diverse range of film genres, including comedy, action, animation, and science fiction, contributing to sustained audience interest [5] - "Fast Life 3" received positive audience feedback for its upgraded production scale and thrilling racing scenes, with viewers expressing a strong emotional connection to the protagonist's journey [6] - "Silent Awakening" focuses on contemporary espionage, depicting a national security team's efforts to track down leaked sensitive information, resonating with audiences who appreciated the portrayal of national security work [6] - "Bounty Hunter: Winds Rise in the Desert," as the only martial arts action film of the Spring Festival, was praised for its authentic fight scenes and emotional storytelling, evoking nostalgia for traditional martial arts cinema [7] Economic Impact and Consumer Engagement - The "Film+" initiative has been upgraded to stimulate economic activity during the Spring Festival, integrating film viewing with broader consumer experiences [10] - Various regions implemented promotional activities linking movie tickets with shopping discounts, effectively boosting both box office revenue and retail consumption [10][11] - In Hebei, initiatives such as government subsidies and special viewing packages were introduced to enhance the affordability and appeal of movie-going during the festive season [13] - The ticket stub economy has seen significant growth, with the number of participating businesses increasing from over 200 to more than 700, demonstrating the potential for cross-industry collaboration [17]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Lunar New Year is driving a shift in consumer behavior, with many opting for rural experiences and traditional meals, igniting new consumption trends for the holiday [1] Group 1: Rural Dining Experiences - In Guangyuan City, Sichuan, a village shared reunion dinner attracted nearly 300 tourists, showcasing local customs and food [3] - In Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, the "Chopping Soup Feast" is gaining popularity, with one event hosting nearly 1,600 guests, significantly increasing bookings compared to previous years [5][7] - Enshi County expects to receive 3 million tourists during the Spring Festival, with local authorities implementing measures to ensure smooth operations for rural dining projects [9] Group 2: Urban Dining Trends - Many consumers are choosing to dine out in county restaurants for their reunion dinners, boosting the local dining economy [11] - In Lingying County, Henan, restaurant packages range from 198 to 498 yuan, incorporating local specialties that are well-received by consumers [13] - The dining market in Shaoyang City, Hunan, is also thriving, with many consumers inquiring about reunion dinner options [15] Group 3: Delivery and Takeout Trends - The return home for the holiday has activated significant consumption potential in lower-tier markets, with county dining consumption growing 4 percentage points higher than non-county areas [17] - The search volume for "reunion dinner delivered to home" increased over 600% from the first week of January to the first week of February [17] - A restaurant in Hangzhou fully booked its reunion dinner seats by January and introduced takeout services, with free delivery within 5 kilometers [19] - The search volume for "takeout reunion dinner" surged over 900%, while "reunion dinner packages" saw a 357% increase [21]

Core Insights - The rural e-commerce market is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan in retail sales by 2025, with significant growth in both overall rural retail and agricultural product sales [1][2] - The development of rural e-commerce is supported by government initiatives aimed at enhancing supply chains and promoting local consumption [2][3] Group 1: Market Growth Projections - By 2025, rural online retail sales are expected to reach 3 trillion yuan, with agricultural product sales at 783.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 9.9% respectively [1] - The county-level appliance replacement program is projected to achieve sales of 48.23 million units and generate revenue of 158.6 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Infrastructure Development - The government plans to support the construction of 1,428 agricultural product commercialization facilities and 348 county-level logistics centers by 2025 [2] - The number of rural e-commerce businesses is expected to reach 2,007.4 million by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [2] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce is implementing a high-quality development program for rural e-commerce, focusing on enhancing supply chains and fostering rural e-commerce leaders [2][3] - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the importance of rural e-commerce and outlines plans for infrastructure improvements in cold storage and logistics [2] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The rural consumption growth rate is projected to outpace urban areas, with rural retail sales expected to grow by 4.1%, compared to 3.6% in urban areas [2] - The shift in rural consumption patterns is moving towards higher quality, service-oriented, and digital offerings, driven by improved income levels and infrastructure [3][4]

Core Insights - The demand for household cleaning services is significantly increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, with a notable 6.3 times week-on-week growth in orders for the newly launched "deep cleaning window service" [1][3] - The demand in lower-tier cities has surged to 3.3 times that of last year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards earlier and more systematic preparations for the festival [1][3] Group 1: Service Demand Trends - The structure of service demand is changing, with a focus on more detailed and frequent cleaning tasks rather than one-time comprehensive cleaning [3] - Kitchen cleaning has become a focal point, with orders for range hood cleaning increasing by 132% month-on-month, reflecting heightened consumer attention to home environments [3] - Pet care services are also gaining traction, with orders for cat feeding services reaching 9.2 times the volume of the same month last year, indicating a normalization of pet services during the festival [3] Group 2: Operational Preparedness - The company has prepared for the peak service demand during the Spring Festival by optimizing labor coordination and service pacing, with over 2.6 million labor resources available [4] - A digital scheduling system has been implemented to enhance order efficiency and reduce idle time for workers, ensuring a better service experience during peak periods [4] - The company is also providing incentives such as red envelope rewards and order subsidies to stabilize income for workers during the busy season [4] Group 3: Service Quality Assurance - The company is conducting specialized training sessions to reinforce service standards and operational protocols, ensuring consistent service quality [4] - Community engagement activities, such as New Year celebrations and cooking events, are being organized for local service personnel to foster a supportive work environment [4][5] - The emphasis is on delivering a more relaxed and reassuring experience for families during the festival, highlighting the value of professional services in managing holiday preparations [5]