行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 消费者服务行业周报（20260223-20260227） 推荐（维持） 春节客流创历史新高，下沉市场释放消费潜力 消费者服务 2026 年 03 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：饶临风 邮箱：raolinfeng@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080002 证券分析师：曹锦瑜 邮箱：caojinyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525100001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 55 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,988.04 | 0.43 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,570.81 | 0.49 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -7.7% | -0.7% | 9.2% | | 相对表现 | -6.9% | -20.3% | -9.9% | -8% 3% 13% 23% 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 26/02 2025- ...

今年春节，Tech星球以一个普通游客和消费者的身份，在山东聊城、河北保定、河南郑州、湖北武汉及北京等地，亲身体验了本地生活服务领域的新变 化。 退休的父母已经会"货比三家"，选择最合适的团购平台购买景区门票；村里的草莓种植户在大棚现场直播，借助补贴吸引客流，周边10公里内的消费者 被"种草"后驱车前来采摘；学会精打细算的年轻人，在不同平台比价，下单电影票、唱KVT、玩转剧本杀桌游洗浴；一大家子的年夜饭，在刚推出还没一 个月的新APP里预订7-8人团圆餐，团购价639元比单点便宜40元...... 这些发生在身边的真实细小的事情，都共同指向一个趋势：互联网直播和团购平台已不再是年轻人的专长，而是渗透进了县城和乡村的毛细血管，甚至改 变了中老年人的消费习惯。 下沉新事，当县城里中老年人学会团购与直播 大年初三，我来到老家的一个景区，坐落在山东聊城临清市的东宛园。出发前一天，刷抖音时偶然刷到景区文旅节活动，顺手在线上团了门票。 一到景区大门，打开抖音订单里的二维码，对准验证机轻轻一扫，"滴"的一声瞬间通关，全程不到10秒。 旁边一位阿姨正举着手机略显局促地求助工作人员，她的门票是女儿在抖音上帮着团购的，自己不懂怎么 ...

Group 1 - The domestic consumption market showed strong resilience during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, driven by the holiday economy, with lower-tier markets becoming a structural highlight [1][3] - National key retail and catering enterprises reported an average daily sales increase of 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025 during the first four days of the holiday [1] - The sales of upgraded products surged, with smart wearable device sales increasing by 19.7% in the first three days of the holiday, including a 250% increase in smart glasses and a 48.6% increase in smart blood glucose meters [1] Group 2 - Restaurant reservations for New Year's Eve and Spring Festival gatherings were booming, with a 60% increase in search volume for must-try restaurants during the holiday period [2] - Haidilao reported serving over 14 million customers across its nationwide stores during the nine-day holiday, with significant demand from lower-tier cities [2] - New-style tea beverage consumption also saw explosive growth, with some lesser-known destinations experiencing sales increases of up to 4500% [2] Group 3 - The trend of returning home for the New Year created new consumption scenarios, with many young people opting to stay in hotels in their hometowns, leading to a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in hotel night stays in third to fifth-tier cities [3] - In popular return-home cities like Zhoukou, hotel order volume saw a staggering 77% year-on-year increase, indicating an upgrade trend in accommodation consumption in lower-tier markets [3] - The 2026 Spring Festival holiday highlighted the recovery of first-tier city business districts while lower-tier cities and county markets emerged as new engines for driving domestic demand due to population return and upgraded consumption habits [3]

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival film box office (including pre-sales) exceeded 5 billion yuan, with "Fast and Furious 3," "Silent Awakening," "Bounty Hunter: Wind Rises in the Desert," and "Boonie Bears: Year of the Bear" ranking as the top four films [1] - The total annual film box office for 2026 has surpassed 7.5 billion yuan, exceeding North America's box office performance, making it the leading single market globally [1] Group 1: Film Highlights - The Spring Festival film season featured a diverse range of genres including comedy, action, animation, and science fiction, contributing to sustained viewer interest [2] - "Fast and Furious 3" showcased upgraded production scale and storytelling, captivating audiences with thrilling racing scenes and a compelling narrative [2] - "Silent Awakening" focuses on contemporary espionage, depicting a national security team's rapid response to a critical intelligence leak, utilizing dynamic cinematography to create a tense atmosphere [3] Group 2: Audience Engagement - Viewers expressed appreciation for the portrayal of national security work in "Silent Awakening," highlighting the film's ability to make the profession relatable and impactful [3] - "Bounty Hunter: Wind Rises in the Desert" is noted for its authentic martial arts action and emotional storytelling, resonating with audiences who long for traditional martial arts cinema [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - The "Film+" initiative has been upgraded to stimulate economic activity during the holiday season, integrating film viewing with broader consumer experiences [5] - Various regions implemented promotional activities linking movie tickets with shopping discounts, effectively boosting both film and retail revenues [5][6] - The film industry is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of holiday economic growth, with local initiatives enhancing consumer engagement and spending [6][7] Group 4: Market Trends - Smaller cities have shown remarkable box office performance during the Spring Festival, becoming key contributors to overall revenue, aided by AI ticket purchasing methods [7] - The trend of integrating film experiences with local tourism and cultural heritage is gaining traction, attracting audiences to film-related destinations [7]

Box Office Performance - The total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival period (including pre-sales) exceeded 5 billion yuan, with "Fast Life 3," "Silent Awakening," "Bounty Hunter: Winds Rise in the Desert," and "Bears: Year of the Bear" ranking as the top four films [1] - The annual box office for 2026 has surpassed 7.5 billion yuan, exceeding North America's box office performance and ranking as the global single-market box office champion [3] Film Variety and Audience Engagement - The 2026 Spring Festival showcased a diverse range of film genres, including comedy, action, animation, and science fiction, contributing to sustained audience interest [5] - "Fast Life 3" received positive audience feedback for its upgraded production scale and thrilling racing scenes, with viewers expressing a strong emotional connection to the protagonist's journey [6] - "Silent Awakening" focuses on contemporary espionage, depicting a national security team's efforts to track down leaked sensitive information, resonating with audiences who appreciated the portrayal of national security work [6] - "Bounty Hunter: Winds Rise in the Desert," as the only martial arts action film of the Spring Festival, was praised for its authentic fight scenes and emotional storytelling, evoking nostalgia for traditional martial arts cinema [7] Economic Impact and Consumer Engagement - The "Film+" initiative has been upgraded to stimulate economic activity during the Spring Festival, integrating film viewing with broader consumer experiences [10] - Various regions implemented promotional activities linking movie tickets with shopping discounts, effectively boosting both box office revenue and retail consumption [10][11] - In Hebei, initiatives such as government subsidies and special viewing packages were introduced to enhance the affordability and appeal of movie-going during the festive season [13] - The ticket stub economy has seen significant growth, with the number of participating businesses increasing from over 200 to more than 700, demonstrating the potential for cross-industry collaboration [17]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Lunar New Year is driving a shift in consumer behavior, with many opting for rural experiences and traditional meals, igniting new consumption trends for the holiday [1] Group 1: Rural Dining Experiences - In Guangyuan City, Sichuan, a village shared reunion dinner attracted nearly 300 tourists, showcasing local customs and food [3] - In Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, the "Chopping Soup Feast" is gaining popularity, with one event hosting nearly 1,600 guests, significantly increasing bookings compared to previous years [5][7] - Enshi County expects to receive 3 million tourists during the Spring Festival, with local authorities implementing measures to ensure smooth operations for rural dining projects [9] Group 2: Urban Dining Trends - Many consumers are choosing to dine out in county restaurants for their reunion dinners, boosting the local dining economy [11] - In Lingying County, Henan, restaurant packages range from 198 to 498 yuan, incorporating local specialties that are well-received by consumers [13] - The dining market in Shaoyang City, Hunan, is also thriving, with many consumers inquiring about reunion dinner options [15] Group 3: Delivery and Takeout Trends - The return home for the holiday has activated significant consumption potential in lower-tier markets, with county dining consumption growing 4 percentage points higher than non-county areas [17] - The search volume for "reunion dinner delivered to home" increased over 600% from the first week of January to the first week of February [17] - A restaurant in Hangzhou fully booked its reunion dinner seats by January and introduced takeout services, with free delivery within 5 kilometers [19] - The search volume for "takeout reunion dinner" surged over 900%, while "reunion dinner packages" saw a 357% increase [21]

Core Insights - The rural e-commerce market is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan in retail sales by 2025, with significant growth in both overall rural retail and agricultural product sales [1][2] - The development of rural e-commerce is supported by government initiatives aimed at enhancing supply chains and promoting local consumption [2][3] Group 1: Market Growth Projections - By 2025, rural online retail sales are expected to reach 3 trillion yuan, with agricultural product sales at 783.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 9.9% respectively [1] - The county-level appliance replacement program is projected to achieve sales of 48.23 million units and generate revenue of 158.6 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Infrastructure Development - The government plans to support the construction of 1,428 agricultural product commercialization facilities and 348 county-level logistics centers by 2025 [2] - The number of rural e-commerce businesses is expected to reach 2,007.4 million by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [2] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce is implementing a high-quality development program for rural e-commerce, focusing on enhancing supply chains and fostering rural e-commerce leaders [2][3] - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the importance of rural e-commerce and outlines plans for infrastructure improvements in cold storage and logistics [2] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The rural consumption growth rate is projected to outpace urban areas, with rural retail sales expected to grow by 4.1%, compared to 3.6% in urban areas [2] - The shift in rural consumption patterns is moving towards higher quality, service-oriented, and digital offerings, driven by improved income levels and infrastructure [3][4]

Core Insights - The demand for household cleaning services is significantly increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, with a notable 6.3 times week-on-week growth in orders for the newly launched "deep cleaning window service" [1][3] - The demand in lower-tier cities has surged to 3.3 times that of last year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards earlier and more systematic preparations for the festival [1][3] Group 1: Service Demand Trends - The structure of service demand is changing, with a focus on more detailed and frequent cleaning tasks rather than one-time comprehensive cleaning [3] - Kitchen cleaning has become a focal point, with orders for range hood cleaning increasing by 132% month-on-month, reflecting heightened consumer attention to home environments [3] - Pet care services are also gaining traction, with orders for cat feeding services reaching 9.2 times the volume of the same month last year, indicating a normalization of pet services during the festival [3] Group 2: Operational Preparedness - The company has prepared for the peak service demand during the Spring Festival by optimizing labor coordination and service pacing, with over 2.6 million labor resources available [4] - A digital scheduling system has been implemented to enhance order efficiency and reduce idle time for workers, ensuring a better service experience during peak periods [4] - The company is also providing incentives such as red envelope rewards and order subsidies to stabilize income for workers during the busy season [4] Group 3: Service Quality Assurance - The company is conducting specialized training sessions to reinforce service standards and operational protocols, ensuring consistent service quality [4] - Community engagement activities, such as New Year celebrations and cooking events, are being organized for local service personnel to foster a supportive work environment [4][5] - The emphasis is on delivering a more relaxed and reassuring experience for families during the festival, highlighting the value of professional services in managing holiday preparations [5]

Group 1: Core Economic Strategies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes boosting consumption, expanding autonomous openness, and promoting innovative trade development [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlights the importance of domestic demand and building a strong domestic market while maintaining openness for multi-field cooperation [1] Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - A focus on new service consumption models with fast growth and strong driving effects is outlined, along with the need to improve supportive policies and eliminate unreasonable restrictions [2] - Events like "Service Consumption Season" and "Chinese Cuisine Fair" are planned to guide localities in creating distinctive service consumption brands in sports, performing arts, tourism, and winter sports [2] Group 3: Consumer Market Development - The lower-tier markets, represented by third and fourth-tier cities and counties, account for 70% of the population and 60% of total retail sales of consumer goods, making them key areas for consumption growth [6] - Strategies will include enhancing circulation facilities, optimizing market environments, and enriching consumption scenarios to activate this potential "blue ocean" [6] Group 4: Trade Promotion Initiatives - Important trade fairs like the Canton Fair will be organized to attract more overseas buyers, with increased support for enterprises participating in overseas exhibitions [9] - The government aims to optimize public services and promote healthy development of new foreign trade models such as cross-border e-commerce [9] Group 5: Import and Export Strategies - Efforts will be made to expand the influence of the "Export China" brand through various matching activities and targeted procurement [11] - Utilizing trade promotion platforms like the China International Import Expo will enhance the convenience of import trade and optimize the structure of imported goods [13] Group 6: Service Trade Development - The development of service trade will follow a "one industry, one policy" approach, with policies aimed at accelerating the export of productive services and enhancing international service capabilities [15] - Emphasis will be placed on leveraging innovations in artificial intelligence, digital economy, and biomedicine to expand emerging service exports [15] Group 7: Autonomous Opening Up - Gradual expansion of autonomous opening in sectors like value-added telecommunications and biotechnology is planned, along with the implementation of zero-tariff measures for all tax items with African countries [19] - The operational policies for the Hainan Free Trade Port will be actively promoted to ensure effectiveness [19] Group 8: Global Supply Chain Cooperation - The strategy includes promoting reasonable and orderly cross-border layout of industrial and supply chains, enhancing cooperation in green development, digital economy, and new energy sectors [21] - The establishment of a comprehensive overseas service system and the promotion of a collaborative service ecosystem for international market expansion are also key objectives [21]

Core Viewpoint - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China exceeded 50 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a strong position in the global retail market [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Basic living and some upgraded goods showed good sales momentum, with retail sales of communication equipment, cultural office supplies, sports and entertainment products, home appliances, and food items growing by 20.9%, 17.3%, 15.7%, 11.0%, and 9.3% respectively [1] - Rural retail sales grew by 4.1%, outpacing urban growth by 0.5 percentage points, highlighting the potential of rural markets [4] - Service retail sales increased by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [1][4] Group 2: Policy and Market Support - The State Council's meetings on January 9 and 16 focused on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, emphasizing the importance of consumption for economic growth [1][2] - Policies aimed at stimulating consumption include optimizing service industry loans and supporting new business models and scenarios [4][9] - The implementation of paid leave and the construction of a unified national market are expected to enhance the consumption environment [2][13] Group 3: Downstream Market Potential - The consumption in lower-tier markets is characterized by a large population base, high marginal potential, and rapid structural upgrades [5][6] - The county-level commercial system is improving, with the county and rural market accounting for 38.7% of total retail sales [4] - Policies to stimulate consumption in lower-tier markets are being introduced, including financial support for county-level consumption activities [4] Group 4: Service Consumption as a New Engine - Service consumption is increasingly becoming a key driver of growth, with service retail sales growing faster than goods retail sales [8][12] - The proportion of service consumption in per capita spending reached 46.1% in 2025, reflecting a shift towards service-oriented consumption [8] - Various sectors such as tourism, cultural activities, and entertainment are experiencing significant growth, with some areas seeing over 20% growth in retail sales [8][10] Group 5: Upgrading Consumption Patterns - The implementation of the "old for new" consumption policy is expected to boost the sales of high-quality durable goods, with significant growth in categories like cultural office supplies and home appliances [11] - The demand for quality and experiential products is rising, while basic consumer goods remain stable, indicating a dual focus on upgrading and essential needs [11] - The government's fiscal policies, including subsidies and tax incentives, are effectively stimulating mid-to-high-end consumption [11][12] Group 6: Future Outlook - The retail sales growth rate is projected to accelerate to around 5.0% in 2026, with service retail sales expected to grow by 6.5% [14] - Continued implementation of consumption-boosting policies and improvements in the consumption environment are anticipated to support stable growth [13][14] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is expected to remain strong, reaching 52% in 2025 [13]