铝月报（2025 年7月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-1 中航期货 目录 01 后市研判 03 宏观 面 02 行情回顾 04 基本 面 | 及 | 大 | 续 | 支 | 现 | 万 | 国 | 产 | 素 | 后 | 势 | 期 | 我 | 值56-60 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 | 及 | 走 | 短 | 因 | 可， | 等 | 面 | 以 | 以 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Second quarter sales reached EUR 3.1 billion, down 7% year-on-year but up 6% sequentially, mainly due to increased North American OCTG prices and stable volumes [4] - EBITDA for the quarter was up 5% sequentially to USD 733 million, with an EBITDA margin close to 24% [4] - Operating cash flow was USD 673 million, with capital expenditure of USD 135 million, resulting in free cash flow of USD 538 million [5] - Net cash position amounted to EUR 3.7 billion at the end of the quarter after dividend payments and share buybacks [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average selling prices in the Tubes operating segment decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 6% sequentially [4] - The company expects lower sales in the third quarter due to reduced invoicing in fracking operations and lower shipments of line pipe [16][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. Section 232 tariff on steel products increased from 25% to 50%, creating market uncertainty and affecting pricing dynamics [7] - The company anticipates that the current broad-based tariff approach will eventually shift to a more specific product-based approach [7] - The company noted that imports are expected to decrease as excess inventories are drawn down [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a strong U.S. domestic production base and enhancing its Rig Direct service to differentiate itself in the market [8] - The company is building local service bases in the Guyana Suriname Basin to support operations for major clients [11] - The acquisition of Shawcor is expected to enhance the company's ability to serve clients with a competitive offer and short lead times [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's solid industrial and commercial position despite a slowdown in drilling activity in some regions [6] - The outlook for the third quarter includes expectations of lower sales and invoicing due to various factors, including maintenance activities [20] - Management indicated that while the rig count in North America may not see a strong reduction, pricing dynamics will be influenced by tariff impacts [18] Other Important Information - The company has received significant project awards, including for the supply of casing and tubing for major projects in Brazil, Alaska, Nigeria, Angola, and the Mediterranean [9][11] - The company is optimistic about the development of the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina, despite current challenges [12][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for 2025 considering tariff impacts and activity levels - Management noted that visibility for the third quarter is clearer, but the fourth quarter remains uncertain due to tariff negotiations and market dynamics [16][20] Question: Margins outlook for Q3 and Q4 - Management expects margins to be slightly below the current quarter but within the range of 20% to 25% [38] Question: Sales outlook in Argentina - Management indicated that the situation in Argentina is affected by reduced rig counts and cautious investment approaches [41] Question: Impact of imports on market share - Management stated that imports represent a significant share of demand in the U.S., and the tariff will impact pricing and market dynamics [49] Question: Potential for bringing forward share buybacks - Management confirmed that the second tranche of share buybacks will be considered in the upcoming Board meeting [51] Question: Sensitivity of revenues generated in Mexico - Management provided insights into the number of rigs operated by Pemex and the potential for increased shipments in the future [100] Question: Expectations for the Middle East market - Management noted that while Saudi Arabia has seen reduced activity, other regions in the Middle East are maintaining stable drilling levels [71] Question: Exposure to gas markets in the U.S. - Management highlighted the company's growing activity in gas markets, particularly in Haynesville and Appalachia [86] Question: Inventory levels and pricing dynamics - Management discussed the impact of increased imports on inventory levels and pricing pressures in the U.S. market [92]

消息人士：丰田计划将部分GR卡罗拉跑车的生产从日本转移到英国；丰田计划在英国伯纳斯顿工厂投 资约5600万美元，以扩大北美地区的出口；英国的生产班次旨在利用过剩产能缩短汽车交付等待时间。 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The gross profit margin increased in Q1 due to a higher sales volume of high-margin products and lower raw material prices compared to the previous year [3] - Historically, Q1 revenue accounts for approximately 18% of the total annual revenue, which is the lowest proportion among the quarters [3] Group 2: Product and Service Strategy - The company promotes a comprehensive crop management solution aimed at providing full-cycle management services for farmers, starting with major crops like wheat, canola, corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, garlic, and fruit trees [5] - The promotion strategy includes demonstration meetings and on-site observation events to showcase product effectiveness, targeting large-scale growers for increased yield [5] Group 3: Human Resources and Training - The company plans to recruit 300 graduates from agricultural colleges in 2025, focusing on systematic and professional training for new employees [5] - Training methods include centralized training, team training, and mentorship, with assessments through written tests and presentations [5] Group 4: Marketing and Incentives - Technical marketing personnel are incentivized through performance evaluations based on user visits, event organization, and product sales metrics [5] - Core technical marketing staff receive equity incentives as part of their motivation strategy [5] Group 5: Production Capacity and Market Impact - The company has reached full production capacity for certain raw materials and water-soluble fertilizers, with significant potential for further production increases following the acquisition of Hebi Quanfeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [5] - Fluctuations in grain prices have a limited impact on the demand for agricultural inputs like pesticides and fertilizers, as these are essential for agricultural production [5] Group 6: Mergers and Acquisitions - The company adheres to an industry acquisition strategy, focusing on targets related to plant growth regulators to extend the supply chain and diversify its product offerings [5] Group 7: Shareholder Returns - The company has approved a mid-year dividend plan for 2025, aligning with its three-year shareholder return strategy for 2024-2026 [5]

英特尔(INTC.O)CEO：在承诺任何额外投资之前，将继续审查现有工厂布局，确保公司高效利用现有产 能。 ...