2025 年 7 月 29 日 螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏弱震荡 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,248 3,397 | -68 -80 | -2.05 -2.30 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 3,414,713 | 1,935,881 | -62,771 | | | HC2510 | 1,255,676 | 1,481,167 | -73,396 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | （元/吨） 前日价格 | （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3430 | 3490 | -60 | | | 北京 | 3300 | 3360 | -60 | | 现货价格 | 广州 | 3440 | 3490 | -50 | | | 上海 | 3440 | 3500 | -60 | | | ...

碳酸锂日评20250725:情绪扩大扰动 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-17 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 76500.00 | 69320.00 | 68060.00 | 7,180.00 | 1 | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 76680.00 | 69380.00 | 67960.00 | 7.300.00 | 3 | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 75000.00 | 68620.00 | 67580.00 | 6,380.00 | ~ | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 75000.00 | 68620.00 | 67180.00 | 6.380.00 | ~ | | 收盘价 | 76680.00 | 69380.00 | 67960.00 | 7,300.00 | ~~ | | 碳酸锂期货 成交量(手) 活跃合约 | 1770283.00 | 1334159.00 | 826939.00 | 436.124.00 | N | | (元/吨) ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-25 宏观暖⻛频频，⿊⾊商品表现分化 昨⽇焦煤和玻纯涨幅较⼤，市场氛围热烈，铁矿和钢材表现则略显乏 ⼒。7⽉以来连续⼤涨使得市场⼼态趋于谨慎，尤其重要会议结果尚 未有定论，资⾦偏向避险为主。不过价格法修正草案提到治理"内卷 式"竞争以及完善低价倾销认定标准，对⼤宗商品整体形成利好。 产业⽅⾯，由于中游期现等环节集中补库，现货资源偏紧，不过终端 板块未看到明显转势，利空或将逐步体现在淡旺季转换时钢材累库压 ⼒上，随着交易重⼼回到基本⾯形成向下拐点。 ⿊⾊：宏观暖⻛频频，⿊⾊商品表现分化 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到港量下降，符合 预期；需求端钢企盈利率增加明显，钢企铁水产量微降，同比保持高 位，支撑矿石需求。铁矿石45个港口库存持稳，压港增加，总库存小 幅增加。基本面利空驱动有限，但短期宏观利好基本交易结束，继续 上行需要有新的驱动出现，预计价格震荡。 2、碳元素方面，市场对煤炭行业"反内卷"预期加深。目前产地个 别前期检修及事故停产煤矿逐渐复产，但主产地煤矿仍有因检修和井 下原因停限产现象，国内 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment continues, with significant differences between buyers and sellers in the spot market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or buy out - of - the - money put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volume Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 76,500 yuan/ton, 76,680 yuan/ton, 75,000 yuan/ton, and 75,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7,180 yuan/ton, 7,300 yuan/ton, 6,380 yuan/ton, and 6,380 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 1,770,283 lots, an increase of 436,124 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 436,727 lots, an increase of 74,673 lots [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the spreads between different lithium products showed various changes, such as the near - month - continuous - one spread decreased by 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - one - continuous - two spread increased by 920 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 764 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Downstream Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related downstream products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and cathode materials showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 70,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Market News - The draft of the price law amendment is open for public comments to regulate market price order and address "involution - style" competition [2] - On July 24, Argentina's economic minister approved Galan Lithium's $217 million lithium project in Catamarca Province to enter the new incentive program RIGI, and the total planned expenditure under this system reached $12.8 billion [2] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [2] - Demand: In June, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production scheduling of ternary materials increased, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate decreased, and the production scheduling of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in June [2] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 11,654 tons (+900 tons), the social inventory increased, the smelters reduced inventory, and the downstream and other inventories were tight [2]

Regulatory Focus - The draft amendment emphasizes the leadership of the Communist Party of China in pricing work [1] - The draft amendment introduces new regulations on unfair pricing behaviors, specifically targeting the use of data, algorithms, technology, and rules [1] - The draft amendment allows government-guided and government-set prices to be determined through pricing mechanisms such as pricing methods and rules [1] - The term "protective price" for important agricultural products like grain is changed to "supportive price" [1] Market Conduct - The draft amendment addresses unfair pricing behaviors, including the use of influence or industry dominance to force or bundle sales of goods or services [1]