Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices has caused significant distress among investors, highlighting the volatility of the gold market despite its long-term upward trend over the past 23 years [1][10]. Market Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking, a decrease in risk aversion, a strengthening dollar, and easing geopolitical and trade tensions, as indicated by comments from political figures [3]. - The ongoing legislative efforts, such as the "Price Law Amendment Draft," aim to regulate price fluctuations, but the market remains largely free, leading to chaotic price movements [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are expressing frustration and confusion over the sudden price drop, with many feeling misled by previous bullish sentiments surrounding gold [5][8]. - The decline has also impacted the broader precious metals market, with platinum and silver experiencing significant price drops [6]. Historical Context - Historical data shows that gold prices have not consistently risen, with periods of stagnation and decline, reminding investors of the inherent risks in the gold market [12]. Investment Strategy - Experts advise against blindly following market trends and suggest diversifying investments to mitigate risks associated with gold price fluctuations [13].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a historical high of $4,392 per ounce last year, followed by a sharp decline, leading to uncertainty among investors and challenges for the recovery industry [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price surged dramatically last year, creating a speculative environment where many individuals engaged in buying and selling, treating gold as a lucrative investment opportunity [1]. - The current market is characterized by extreme price fluctuations, with rapid increases and decreases causing confusion and concern among investors and merchants alike [3][7]. - The recovery industry is particularly affected, with operators expressing frustration over the unpredictable market conditions, fearing losses from rapid price changes [3][9]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The introduction of the "Price Law Amendment Draft" indicates that regulatory bodies are looking to impose stricter controls on the gold market, which may further impact market dynamics [5]. - Despite regulatory intentions, the market remains volatile, suggesting that the underlying conditions may not stabilize easily [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers view gold not only as a decorative item but also as a means of preserving value, leading to continued demand despite market uncertainties [3]. - There is a growing sentiment among ordinary consumers that the current market is risky, with many expressing hesitation to invest further in gold [9][10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to avoid blind speculation and to manage their positions carefully, emphasizing the importance of risk diversification rather than concentrating all assets in gold [10][13]. - The narrative around gold has shifted from being a stable store of value to a more speculative asset, with many individuals experiencing losses due to the volatile nature of the market [7][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot-rolled coil, shows a pattern of sectoral market resonance with a weak and volatile trend [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,248 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-2.05%); the trading volume was 3,414,713 lots, the position was 1,935,881 lots, down 62,771 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,397 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-2.30%); the trading volume was 1,255,676 lots, the position was 1,481,167 lots, down 73,396 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 40 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 increased by 68 yuan/ton to 142 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB2510 - RB2601 increasing by 2 to -41 [3]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output and Inventory**: On July 24, according to Steel Union weekly data, rebar output increased by 2.9 tons, hot-rolled coil output decreased by 3.65 tons, and the total output of five major steel products decreased by 1.22 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.62 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 2.25 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.16 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 8.55 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons [4]. - **Key Steel Enterprises' Production**: In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2141 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 214.1 million tons (a 2.1% daily increase), 1944 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194.4 million tons (a 0.6% daily increase), and 2080 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208.0 million tons (a 4.6% daily increase) [5]. - **Policy News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair price behavior [5]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 24, the main contract of new lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during intraday trading. The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The price of spodumene concentrate and mica increased on the cost - end. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased on the supply - side. In June, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, while that of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries decreased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in June. The registered warehouse receipts were 11,654 (+900) tons, and the social inventory increased. Smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors were tight. Overall, the "anti - involution" sentiment continued, and there was a large divergence between spot buyers and sellers. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 76,500.00 yuan/ton, 76,680.00 yuan/ton, 75,000.00 yuan/ton, and 75,000.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7,180.00 yuan/ton, 7,300.00 yuan/ton, 6,380.00 yuan/ton, and 6,380.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 1,770,283.00 lots (+436,124.00), and the open interest was 436,727.00 lots (+74,673.00) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 11,654.00 tons (+900.00 tons) [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 180.00 yuan/ton (-120.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was 1,680.00 yuan/ton (+920.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 6,130.00 yuan/ton (-7,200.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Spodumene Concentrate**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 764.00 US dollars/ton (+14.00 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,080.00 yuan/ton (+40.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,655.00 yuan/ton (+50.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. 3.3 Lithium Product Prices - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 70,550.00 yuan/ton (+100.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 68,900.00 yuan/ton (+100.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.20 US dollars/kg (unchanged compared to the previous day). The average price of battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide (domestic) was 60,520.00 yuan/ton (+700.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the average price of battery - grade fine - powder lithium hydroxide (domestic) was 65,670.00 yuan/ton (+700.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. - **Other Lithium Products**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%, domestic) was 21,500.00 yuan/ton (+500.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day). The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, as well as lithium iron phosphate, showed different degrees of increase [2]. 3.4 Cobalt Product Prices - **Cobalt Products**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%, domestic) was 245,500.00 yuan/ton (+500.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%, domestic) was 51,000.00 yuan/ton (+25.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%, domestic) was 208,650.00 yuan/ton (unchanged compared to the previous day) [2]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 55,385 tons (-2,654 tons compared to the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 42,815 tons (+1,544 tons compared to the previous week), and the total inventory was 143,170 tons (+550 tons compared to the previous week) [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Price Law Amendment**: The draft amendment to the price law is open for public consultation to regulate the market price order and address "involution - style" competition [2]. - **Argentina Lithium Project**: On July 24, Argentina's economic minister Luis Caputo said that the country had approved Galan Lithium's 217 - million - US - dollar lithium project in Catamarca Province to enter the new incentive program RIGI. The total planned expenditure under this system has reached 12.8 billion US dollars [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6] Core View of the Report - Macro - level positive factors are frequent, but black commodities show differentiated performance. The market sentiment has become cautious after continuous sharp rises since July. The draft amendment to the price law is favorable for bulk commodities. In the industrial aspect, due to concentrated replenishment in the mid - stream, spot resources are tight, but there is no obvious turnaround in the terminal sector, and negative factors may be reflected in the steel inventory accumulation pressure during the off - peak to peak season transition [1]. - Overall, with continuous macro - level positives, the continuous rally in the futures market stimulates mid - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash operations to build positions, forming a positive feedback in the industrial chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased as expected. Steel mills' profitability has increased significantly, and iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting ore demand. The inventory at 45 ports is stable, with an increase in berthing vessels and a slight increase in total inventory. There are limited negative fundamental drivers, and continued upward movement requires new drivers. It is expected that the price will oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - Market expectations for "anti - involution" in the coal industry have deepened. Some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, but there are still disruptions in domestic coal supply. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke producers still face losses. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. Futures are at a significant premium, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies. Coke inventories at coke producers are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [2]. Alloys - As coke enters the price - increase cycle, it strengthens the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The market sentiment is positive, port ore traders are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of ferromanganese - silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly, with an increased drive for resumption of production. On the demand side, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel products remains high. It is expected that the short - term futures price will follow the overall trend of the sector [3]. Glass - During the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has decreased month - on - month. The current good sales - to - production ratio may be due to speculative purchases. There are 2 production lines yet to start producing glass and 1 line for cold - repair, and the daily melting capacity is expected to remain stable. Real - world demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and speculative demand is high. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of inventory replenishment and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market. After the positive feedback, a large amount of inventory is locked in by futures - cash operations, resulting in significant delivery pressure. In the short term, prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall, and in the long term, the price center will decline [6]. Steel - The "anti - involution" sentiment is high, and the draft amendment to the price law is favorable. After the continuous rally in the futures market, market transactions have improved, but the increase in spot prices has slowed down. This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. The inventory level is at a relatively low position in history, and the fundamental contradictions during the off - season are not obvious. In the off - season, with strong support from furnace materials under the background of high iron - making water production and high "anti - involution" sentiment, the futures market is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand performance [8]. Iron Ore - Port transactions have increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased as expected. Steel mills' profitability has increased significantly, and iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting ore demand. The inventory at 45 ports is stable, with an increase in berthing vessels and a slight increase in total inventory. Ore demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and there are limited negative fundamental drivers. Continued upward movement requires new drivers, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume has slightly decreased, and steel mills' daily consumption has increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable. On the supply side, the arrival volume has decreased this week, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the profit of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours has improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steel production has increased. The factory inventory has slightly decreased. Scrap steel demand is high, resources are tight, but there is a lack of independent driving factors, and it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished steel products [9]. Coke - On the futures side, the main contract is oscillating with a slight upward trend; on the现货 side, prices have increased. After two rounds of price increases, coke producers still face losses, and a third round of price increases is on the way. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. Futures are at a significant premium, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies. Coke inventories at coke producers are continuously decreasing. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and price increases are accelerating. Coke demand is strong, cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [9][11]. Coking Coal - On the futures side, there are strong expectations for coal supply - side reform, and the market sentiment is positive. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production in the producing areas, and supply is restricted. On the import side, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is around 1,000 trucks, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream and traders are actively purchasing, and coal mine inventories are significantly decreasing. In the short term, under the influence of market sentiment, coking coal still has upward potential [12]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The futures price of ferromanganese - silicon is oscillating. On the cost side, coke price increases strengthen cost support, and manganese ore prices are stable. On the supply side, the daily output has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved, with an increased drive for resumption of production. On the demand side, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel products remains high. The short - term futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the sector [16]. Ferrosilicon - The futures price of ferrosilicon is weak. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production is accelerating. On the demand side, steel production remains at a high level, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steel - making is resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the sector [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment continues, with significant differences between buyers and sellers in the spot market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or buy out - of - the - money put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volume Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 76,500 yuan/ton, 76,680 yuan/ton, 75,000 yuan/ton, and 75,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7,180 yuan/ton, 7,300 yuan/ton, 6,380 yuan/ton, and 6,380 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 1,770,283 lots, an increase of 436,124 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 436,727 lots, an increase of 74,673 lots [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the spreads between different lithium products showed various changes, such as the near - month - continuous - one spread decreased by 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - one - continuous - two spread increased by 920 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 764 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Downstream Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related downstream products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and cathode materials showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 70,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Market News - The draft of the price law amendment is open for public comments to regulate market price order and address "involution - style" competition [2] - On July 24, Argentina's economic minister approved Galan Lithium's $217 million lithium project in Catamarca Province to enter the new incentive program RIGI, and the total planned expenditure under this system reached $12.8 billion [2] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [2] - Demand: In June, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production scheduling of ternary materials increased, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate decreased, and the production scheduling of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in June [2] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 11,654 tons (+900 tons), the social inventory increased, the smelters reduced inventory, and the downstream and other inventories were tight [2]

Regulatory Focus - The draft amendment emphasizes the leadership of the Communist Party of China in pricing work [1] - The draft amendment introduces new regulations on unfair pricing behaviors, specifically targeting the use of data, algorithms, technology, and rules [1] - The draft amendment allows government-guided and government-set prices to be determined through pricing mechanisms such as pricing methods and rules [1] - The term "protective price" for important agricultural products like grain is changed to "supportive price" [1] Market Conduct - The draft amendment addresses unfair pricing behaviors, including the use of influence or industry dominance to force or bundle sales of goods or services [1]