老张是金条收集爱好者，昨晚看到金价跳水，心里直发毛，网上那些"金价日日涨"的广告看着扎眼极了，他说"这不就是割韭菜嘛，之前天天喊着 囤金，现在跌得人心慌"，珠宝商林玉宣也透露，国内金价受国际影响大，大家现在都在观望，没人敢轻举妄动。 回想当年，黄金市场还没这么多花样，买金条买金币，老百姓买的是实物，不像现在纸黄金、期货、各种衍生品搞得头晕转向，很多人根本摸不着 门道，倒霉就踩了坑。 这跌幅还影响了整个贵金属市场，铂金跌了8%，沪银、沪金主力合约跌幅都接近5%，这不是小打小闹，是全市场的狂风暴雨。 回头看看，这金价涨了二十三年，从当年每克63块五毛，到今年10月21号的993元，涨了整整十五倍多；2006年一百多块时，老珠宝店老板说那是 黄金第一次真火起来，大家都买得起，买得欢，觉得黄金是稳稳的投资；疫情爆发时，金价冲到387元，街坊们抢着囤金，怕钱贬值，谁也没料到 现在会突然被割这么惨。 这次跌得狠，投资者怨声载道，股吧里有人说"一晚上没跟老婆说话，她还以为是她做错了什么"，还有人吐槽"叔叔踩坑了，亏了五万，眼看着钱 就没了"，这种声音从朋友圈炸到微博，大家都不淡定了。 市场分析师们说，这波跌主要是获利了结， ...

说起这黄金价格，去年还真是辉煌得很，国际市场上一度冲上了4392美元一盎司的历史高点，朋友圈里金价涨不停，人人都盯着这块"摇钱树"，买 买买，卖卖卖，像是老戏台上的好戏连台。 可这戏一翻转，黄金价格像被泼了冷水，跌得快，市场乱成一锅粥，投资人慌了，商家急了，回收行业更是叫苦连天，心里直打鼓——到底还能不 能撑住这高价，还是说这波涨势不过是泡沫一场？ 街头巷尾的大爷小孩都知道，黄金这玩意儿不光是装饰品，是婚嫁、送礼、保值的多面手，南京这边金店老板说，婚嫁刚需还得买，哪怕心里没 底，毕竟这东西不能太拖，拖了就亏。 金价跳水，黄金回收行业的日子不好过，商家怨声载道，投资者心惊胆战，普通人看着涨价跌价，直呼"坑里蹲久了，谁还敢跳"。 但活路总得有，买黄金别盲目跟风，控制仓位，理性投资，别把全部积蓄压在这条波涛汹涌的江河里，学着分散风险，别把鸡蛋都放一篮子里。 但回收行业的兄弟们苦不堪言，尤其是那些靠快进快出赚差价的，他们说这行情看得眼晕，涨得像疯了一样，跌起来更没谱，真是怕砸手里，砸 了，亏了，赔了，活该。 这背后，政策也给市场添了几把火。《价格法修正草案》正在酝酿，监管层明摆着要管，但市场的"土壤"依旧疯狂，价格波 ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏弱震荡 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,248 3,397 | -68 -80 | -2.05 -2.30 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 3,414,713 | 1,935,881 | -62,771 | | | HC2510 | 1,255,676 | 1,481,167 | -73,396 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | （元/吨） 前日价格 | （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3430 | 3490 | -60 | | | 北京 | 3300 | 3360 | -60 | | 现货价格 | 广州 | 3440 | 3490 | -50 | | | 上海 | 3440 | 3500 | -60 | | | ...

碳酸锂日评20250725:情绪扩大扰动 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-17 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 76500.00 | 69320.00 | 68060.00 | 7,180.00 | 1 | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 76680.00 | 69380.00 | 67960.00 | 7.300.00 | 3 | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 75000.00 | 68620.00 | 67580.00 | 6,380.00 | ~ | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 75000.00 | 68620.00 | 67180.00 | 6.380.00 | ~ | | 收盘价 | 76680.00 | 69380.00 | 67960.00 | 7,300.00 | ~~ | | 碳酸锂期货 成交量(手) 活跃合约 | 1770283.00 | 1334159.00 | 826939.00 | 436.124.00 | N | | (元/吨) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6] Core View of the Report - Macro - level positive factors are frequent, but black commodities show differentiated performance. The market sentiment has become cautious after continuous sharp rises since July. The draft amendment to the price law is favorable for bulk commodities. In the industrial aspect, due to concentrated replenishment in the mid - stream, spot resources are tight, but there is no obvious turnaround in the terminal sector, and negative factors may be reflected in the steel inventory accumulation pressure during the off - peak to peak season transition [1]. - Overall, with continuous macro - level positives, the continuous rally in the futures market stimulates mid - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash operations to build positions, forming a positive feedback in the industrial chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased as expected. Steel mills' profitability has increased significantly, and iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting ore demand. The inventory at 45 ports is stable, with an increase in berthing vessels and a slight increase in total inventory. There are limited negative fundamental drivers, and continued upward movement requires new drivers. It is expected that the price will oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - Market expectations for "anti - involution" in the coal industry have deepened. Some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, but there are still disruptions in domestic coal supply. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke producers still face losses. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. Futures are at a significant premium, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies. Coke inventories at coke producers are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [2]. Alloys - As coke enters the price - increase cycle, it strengthens the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The market sentiment is positive, port ore traders are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of ferromanganese - silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly, with an increased drive for resumption of production. On the demand side, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel products remains high. It is expected that the short - term futures price will follow the overall trend of the sector [3]. Glass - During the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has decreased month - on - month. The current good sales - to - production ratio may be due to speculative purchases. There are 2 production lines yet to start producing glass and 1 line for cold - repair, and the daily melting capacity is expected to remain stable. Real - world demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and speculative demand is high. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of inventory replenishment and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market. After the positive feedback, a large amount of inventory is locked in by futures - cash operations, resulting in significant delivery pressure. In the short term, prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall, and in the long term, the price center will decline [6]. Steel - The "anti - involution" sentiment is high, and the draft amendment to the price law is favorable. After the continuous rally in the futures market, market transactions have improved, but the increase in spot prices has slowed down. This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. The inventory level is at a relatively low position in history, and the fundamental contradictions during the off - season are not obvious. In the off - season, with strong support from furnace materials under the background of high iron - making water production and high "anti - involution" sentiment, the futures market is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand performance [8]. Iron Ore - Port transactions have increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased as expected. Steel mills' profitability has increased significantly, and iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting ore demand. The inventory at 45 ports is stable, with an increase in berthing vessels and a slight increase in total inventory. Ore demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and there are limited negative fundamental drivers. Continued upward movement requires new drivers, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume has slightly decreased, and steel mills' daily consumption has increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable. On the supply side, the arrival volume has decreased this week, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the profit of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours has improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steel production has increased. The factory inventory has slightly decreased. Scrap steel demand is high, resources are tight, but there is a lack of independent driving factors, and it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished steel products [9]. Coke - On the futures side, the main contract is oscillating with a slight upward trend; on the现货 side, prices have increased. After two rounds of price increases, coke producers still face losses, and a third round of price increases is on the way. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. Futures are at a significant premium, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies. Coke inventories at coke producers are continuously decreasing. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and price increases are accelerating. Coke demand is strong, cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [9][11]. Coking Coal - On the futures side, there are strong expectations for coal supply - side reform, and the market sentiment is positive. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production in the producing areas, and supply is restricted. On the import side, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is around 1,000 trucks, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream and traders are actively purchasing, and coal mine inventories are significantly decreasing. In the short term, under the influence of market sentiment, coking coal still has upward potential [12]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The futures price of ferromanganese - silicon is oscillating. On the cost side, coke price increases strengthen cost support, and manganese ore prices are stable. On the supply side, the daily output has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved, with an increased drive for resumption of production. On the demand side, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel products remains high. The short - term futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the sector [16]. Ferrosilicon - The futures price of ferrosilicon is weak. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production is accelerating. On the demand side, steel production remains at a high level, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steel - making is resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the sector [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment continues, with significant differences between buyers and sellers in the spot market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or buy out - of - the - money put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volume Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 76,500 yuan/ton, 76,680 yuan/ton, 75,000 yuan/ton, and 75,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7,180 yuan/ton, 7,300 yuan/ton, 6,380 yuan/ton, and 6,380 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 1,770,283 lots, an increase of 436,124 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 436,727 lots, an increase of 74,673 lots [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the spreads between different lithium products showed various changes, such as the near - month - continuous - one spread decreased by 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - one - continuous - two spread increased by 920 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 764 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Downstream Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related downstream products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and cathode materials showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 70,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Market News - The draft of the price law amendment is open for public comments to regulate market price order and address "involution - style" competition [2] - On July 24, Argentina's economic minister approved Galan Lithium's $217 million lithium project in Catamarca Province to enter the new incentive program RIGI, and the total planned expenditure under this system reached $12.8 billion [2] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [2] - Demand: In June, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production scheduling of ternary materials increased, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate decreased, and the production scheduling of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in June [2] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 11,654 tons (+900 tons), the social inventory increased, the smelters reduced inventory, and the downstream and other inventories were tight [2]

Regulatory Focus - The draft amendment emphasizes the leadership of the Communist Party of China in pricing work [1] - The draft amendment introduces new regulations on unfair pricing behaviors, specifically targeting the use of data, algorithms, technology, and rules [1] - The draft amendment allows government-guided and government-set prices to be determined through pricing mechanisms such as pricing methods and rules [1] - The term "protective price" for important agricultural products like grain is changed to "supportive price" [1] Market Conduct - The draft amendment addresses unfair pricing behaviors, including the use of influence or industry dominance to force or bundle sales of goods or services [1]