9月起，人身险产品预定利率将下调。当前，距离预定利率下调还剩不到一周时间，记者了解到，不少 险企正在陆续进行产品切换，不同险企的老产品停售节奏略有不同。 李先生告诉记者，此前已有险企在7月末和8月中上旬停售现有保险产品，也有一些险企选择在8月31 日"卡点"停售产品，包括养老年金险、增额终身寿险、两全险、重疾险、护理险等。 在停售现有保险产品的同时，险企也在陆续推出新的保险产品。比如，复星联合健康近期推出预定利率 为2.0%的增额终身寿险产品，中意人寿、信泰人寿、华泰人寿等推出保底利率为1.75%的分红险产品 等。 "最近几天我一直在忙着拜访客户、处理客户咨询、投保等事宜，上午约了客户讲解保险，下午还要为 几位客户办理投保。"8月26日，某保险经纪人李先生向中国证券报记者表示。 和李先生类似，近期不少保险销售人员都处于忙碌状态。根据人身险产品预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动 态调整机制，9月起，人身险产品预定利率即将下调。 记者调研了解到，当前各家险企加快产品切换，有产品已陆续停售，也有部分险企选择在8月31日停售 老产品。在停售老产品的同时，部分险企已推出新产品。业内人士表示，预定利率下调或将影响保险产 品价格， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - On July 25, 2025, the China Insurance Industry Association announced a reduction in the maximum预定利率 of insurance products, which is in line with market expectations and may open up space for insurance bond allocation [2][13] - By reviewing historical adjustments and recent impacts, this paper anticipates that the current rate cut may have limited effects on premium income growth and long - term treasury bond spread compression, with local bonds being a more likely major allocation choice [9][13][50] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Definition and Historical Backtracking of the预定利率 of Life Insurance Products - The预定利率 is crucial for calculating an insurance company's profit from interest margin. As the investment return rate of insurance companies decreases, there is an increasing need to lower the预定利率 [14] - The historical adjustment of the预定利率 can be divided into four stages: from 1999 - 2013, it dropped to 2.5%; from 2013 - 2019, it rose to 3.5%; from 2019 - 2024, it gradually declined to 2.5%; since 2025, a dynamic adjustment mechanism has been established [3][15][18] 2. Review of the Impact of Recent Insurance预定利率 Reductions on the Bond Market - **Premium Income**: The "scramble for expiring products" before and during the transition of insurance products led to above - seasonal growth in premium income. In 2024, this growth was more concentrated compared to 2023 [5][21] - **Insurance Bond Allocation Behavior**: In 2023 and 2024, due to the "scramble for expiring products," there was significant above - seasonal growth in insurance bond allocation in August - September. Local bonds were the main allocation, and in 2024, there was an increase in treasury bond and inter - bank certificate of deposit allocation and a decrease in bank perpetual and subordinated bond allocation [6][24][27] - **Bond Market Performance**: In 2023, the spread between 30y local bonds and 30y treasury bonds narrowed; in 2024, the 30 - 10y treasury bond spread compressed significantly, while the spread between 30y local bonds and 30y treasury bonds widened [7][32] 3. New Changes in Insurance Asset Allocation in 2025 - The growth rate of insurance premium income on the liability side has decreased significantly in 2025, but the balance of insurance funds in use has continued to grow at a high rate, and the demand for bond allocation remains strong [37][40] - Bonds are still a preferred choice for insurance institutions. The proportion of bond allocation by life insurance companies has been increasing, mainly to address the issue of "mismatching long - term funds with short - term investments" and the pressure of re - allocating high - yield assets [44] 4. Outlook on the Impact of the Current预定利率 Reduction on the Bond Market - The effect of above - seasonal growth in premium income may be weaker than in the previous two rounds. The "scramble for expiring products" time is limited, and the reduction from 2.5% to 2% may have less of a stimulating effect on consumers [9][50] - Currently, 30y local bonds have higher cost - effectiveness than 30y treasury bonds. The current预定利率 reduction may have limited impact on compressing the spread of ultra - long treasury bonds [9][50]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - In the life insurance sector, the premium growth rate continued to expand in May 2025, with original premium income for the first five months reaching 227.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The life insurance segment saw a significant monthly increase of 24.1% in May [1][2] - The property insurance sector reported a steady growth in auto insurance premiums, driven by new car sales, with total original premium income for the first five months at 78.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 3,842.39 billion yuan by the end of May 2025, reflecting a 7.0% increase from the end of 2024, primarily due to premium income growth and investment asset appreciation [3] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - Original premium income for life insurance in May was 26.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. The total for the first five months was 187.35 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year [1] - The new investment contributions from policyholders in the first five months were 34.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with May showing a slight increase of 1.2% [1] Property Insurance - The auto insurance segment's original premium income for the first five months was 37.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while non-auto insurance premiums reached 40.85 billion yuan, up 6.0% [2] - In May, the total original premium income for property insurance was 13.20 billion yuan, with auto insurance contributing 7.53 billion yuan and non-auto insurance 5.66 billion yuan [2] Asset Management - By the end of May 2025, the total assets of life insurance companies were 3,366.27 billion yuan, a 6.7% increase from the end of 2024, while property insurance companies had total assets of 307.76 billion yuan, up 6.1% [3] - The net assets of the insurance industry totaled 360.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the end of 2024 [3] Investment Recommendations - Recent regulatory measures are expected to lower liability costs for life insurance companies, benefiting leading firms in the sector. The current yield on ten-year government bonds is fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%, with anticipated adjustments in preset rates [4]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is preparing for a significant adjustment in the predetermined interest rates of various insurance products, particularly focusing on the shift towards dividend insurance products as traditional fixed-income products see a decline in their guaranteed rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - Multiple insurance companies are developing new products and preparing for a transition in predetermined interest rates, with a planned adjustment set for September [1]. - The main traditional fixed-income insurance products' predetermined interest rate will decrease from 2.5% to 2%, while the guaranteed rate for dividend insurance will drop from 2.0% to 1.5% [1][2]. - The adjustment will also affect universal account rates and may lead to an increase in prices for critical illness insurance and other protection-type products [1][2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Product Development - The trend of lowering the guaranteed rate for dividend insurance to 1.5% is expected to become widespread among insurance companies in the coming months [2]. - The insurance industry is anticipating a wave of product withdrawals as companies prepare for the upcoming rate adjustments, with some products already marked for delisting [2][3]. - The insurance product pricing is influenced by the predetermined interest rate, which is tied to bank deposit rates and expected investment returns, making it a critical factor in the industry [2]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Strategic Shifts - The recent decline in the predetermined interest rate research value indicates a need for insurance companies to lower policy liability costs to maintain asset-liability matching [3]. - Lowering the predetermined interest rates is seen as a strategy to mitigate interest margin loss risks and enhance financial stability for insurance companies [3]. - The focus on developing floating yield products, such as dividend insurance, is expected to help insurance companies navigate low-interest environments and achieve long-term operational stability [3][4]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The success of dividend insurance products, despite lower guaranteed rates, relies heavily on the company's ability to deliver on dividend realization rates and maintain market confidence [4]. - Insurance companies must balance dividend policies, reserve accounts, and competitive positioning while addressing sales capabilities and consumer acceptance [4].

Group 1: New Consumption Sector - The Hong Kong new consumption sector experienced significant declines, with major stocks dropping around 6%, making it the worst-performing sector in the market [2] - There are no specific negative news driving this decline, but the rapid price increases have led to increased short-selling sentiments and profit-taking behavior [2][3] - Concerns about counterfeit products, particularly regarding Labubu toys, have emerged, with customs seizing over 20,000 fake items, raising questions about market saturation and pricing sustainability [3][4][5] Group 2: Innovative Pharmaceuticals Sector - The Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals sector fell over 5%, marking a total decline of approximately 10% since the previous week [7][9] - News regarding potential drug tariffs has created uncertainty, leading to a cautious approach among investors [8] - The recent share reduction by major shareholders in the pharmaceutical sector has contributed to market volatility, as it signals potential overvaluation and prompts other investors to consider profit-taking [9][10] Group 3: Market Trends and External Factors - Short-term interest rates for bonds have seen significant declines, indicating recent market volatility [20] - Foreign capital has been increasingly buying short-term bonds, suggesting a positive outlook on the RMB exchange rate and a growing confidence in the A-share market [22][23] - Insurance companies are preemptively lowering the guaranteed interest rates on dividend insurance products, indicating a broader trend of rate adjustments expected in the industry [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of insurance "interest rate cuts" has begun, with companies restructuring their product matrices to focus on "protection + savings" as many 2.5% guaranteed rate savings insurance products are being phased out ahead of the third quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Insurance Rate Adjustments - The first move in the new round of insurance "interest rate cuts" was made by Tongfang Global Life, which launched new dividend insurance products with a guaranteed rate reduced from the market cap of 2% to 1.5% [2][3]. - The adjustment of guaranteed rates is seen as a necessary response to environmental changes, aimed at reducing the liability costs for insurance companies and promoting sustainable development in the industry [3][12]. Group 2: Product Discontinuation - Many insurance companies are ceasing the sale of various 2.5% guaranteed rate savings insurance products as they prepare for the upcoming changes in the market [3][10]. - Specific products that have been discontinued include the "Xinyingjia" whole life insurance and "Yuehuo" life annuity insurance from Zhongying Life, effective from June 13, 2025 [4][10]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to transition from high guaranteed returns to low guaranteed and floating rate products, reflecting a broader trend towards risk-sharing [12][14]. - The current market environment, characterized by declining interest rates, is putting pressure on insurance asset allocation, necessitating an increase in equity investments to enhance flexibility [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the banking sector is experiencing a positive performance driven by several key events, including the impact of the US-China tariff war, index inclusions, and changes in market expectations regarding major shareholders [1] - The banking ETF (512730.SH) saw a slight increase of 0.06%, with significant gains from major constituents such as Hu Nong Commercial Bank (5.68%) and Jiangsu Bank (0.90%) [1] - The inclusion of Hu Nong and Yu Nong in major indices is expected to bring additional passive investment flows, enhancing their market performance [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the insurance preset interest rate may be lowered again, which could increase the tolerance for dividend yields in the banking sector [2] - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to a narrowing decline in interest margins [2] - The recovery of bond investment losses in TPL accounts is anticipated as government bond yields decline, which may positively impact the banking sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the expectation of a decrease in insurance preset rates due to the recent cuts in deposit rates by major banks, leading to potential changes in the pricing and yield of life insurance products [1][2] - The preset rate research value for ordinary life insurance products in Q1 was 2.13%, which is below the maximum preset rate of 2.5%, indicating that if it remains below 2.25% in Q2, new products will see a reduction in preset rates [1][2] - Insurance marketing agents are actively promoting the urgency to purchase insurance products to lock in current rates, a behavior referred to as "炒停售" (speculative purchase before suspension), although the effectiveness of this strategy may be limited [2] Group 2 - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset rates allows for timely reductions when preset rate research values exceed certain thresholds, indicating a responsive approach to market conditions [1][2] - Insurance companies are preparing for the transition by developing new products, adjusting systems, and training personnel to ensure a smooth adjustment to the new preset rates [2] - Consumers are advised to consider the alignment of insurance products with their risk management and wealth management needs rather than solely focusing on locking in rates [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the implementation of a loose monetary policy, coupled with fiscal reforms and potential further reductions in insurance premium rates, is expected to lead to excess returns for banks [1][2][9] - The current phase of intensive policy implementation for stable growth is anticipated to have a profound impact on the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025, with increased fiscal policy support expected to boost social financing and credit, benefiting cyclical stocks [2][9] - The report identifies two main investment themes: the effectiveness of low-volatility dividend strategies in a declining interest rate environment and the potential for public funds to increase their allocation to banks due to recent reforms [2][9][23] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent reforms in public funds emphasize the importance of performance benchmarks, which may drive increased allocation to previously underweighted stocks, particularly in the banking sector [23][26] - It is indicated that insurance premium rates may be further reduced in the third quarter of 2025, which could enhance the tolerance for dividend yields among insurance funds, thereby supporting absolute returns for banks [9][10] - The report suggests that banks are currently underrepresented in public fund portfolios, with significant potential for increased capital inflow, particularly for major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank [10][26]