金工量化周报 上周申报 7 只上证科创板芯片 ETF ——ETF 市场扫描与策略跟踪（2025.11.23） 核心结论 摘要内容 全球市场概况：上周，A 股市场整体下跌，其中，北证 50 指数跌幅最大， 为 9.04%；港股市场有所下跌，恒生指数下跌 5.09%。跌幅居前的 ETF 跟 踪标的多为新能源板块指数。 ETF 新发情况：上周内地市场上报股票 ETF 19 只；新成立股票 ETF 9 只。 美国市场上周新成立权益型 ETF 17 只，其中 16 只为主动 ETF。 A 股 ETF 资金流向：上周，净流入排名前 10 的多为宽基指数 ETF；净流出 前 10 的多为周期板块指数 ETF。宽基 ETF 中，跟踪中证 500 指数的 ETF 净流入居前，跟踪 MSCI 中国 A50 互联互通指数的 ETF 净流出居前；行业 ETF 中，TMT 板块 ETF 净流入居前；主题 ETF 中，港股通科技 ETF 基金 （159101）净流入居前，金融科技 ETF（159851）净流出居前；主动 ETF 中，科创 50 增强 ETF 净流入居前，中证 2000 增强 ETF 净流出居前；Smart Beta ET ...

Group 1 - On October 27, A-shares saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points. The "hard technology" sectors, including storage chips, optical modules, and semiconductor equipment, led the gains, with some 5G communication-themed ETFs rising over 5% and several communication, semiconductor, and artificial intelligence-themed ETFs increasing over 3% [1][1][1] - In the context of a strong technology growth style, on October 27, the net inflow for ETFs tracking the Sci-Tech 50 and the CSI All-Share Semiconductor exceeded 600 million yuan, ranking among the top in the market. Conversely, due to adjustments in international gold prices, gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of over 1.5 billion yuan, while ETFs tracking the CSI Bank saw a net outflow of over 1.1 billion yuan [1][1][1] Group 2 - On October 27, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated at the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting that the central bank had suspended government bond trading earlier this year due to significant supply-demand imbalances and accumulated market risks. Currently, the bond market is operating well, and the central bank will resume open market operations for government bonds [1][1][1] - Multiple fund managers announced on October 27 that there are risks of premium for cross-border ETFs, including the Nikkei 225 ETF, US 50 ETF, S&P 500 ETF, Nasdaq 100 ETF, and Southeast Asia Technology ETF. As of October 27, several ETFs tracking indices like Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 had premium rates exceeding 5% [1][1][1]

Market Overview - The total scale of equity ETFs in the market reached 37,631.20 billion yuan, with an increase of 208.04 billion yuan in total scale over the past week, and a net outflow of 132.28 billion yuan [1]. Fund Inflow and Outflow Direction - In terms of major categories, industry and thematic ETFs saw a net inflow of 116.39 billion yuan, while broad-based and strategic ETFs experienced a net outflow of 338.22 billion yuan [2]. - Within the broad-based and strategic ETFs, the top three sectors for net inflow were: Sci-Tech Innovation 50, Strategy-Dividend, and Shenzhen 100. The top three sectors for net outflow were: CSI 300, CSI A500, and CSI 1000 [3]. - For industry and thematic ETFs, the top five sectors for net inflow were: Securities, Semiconductor Chips, Military Industry, Photovoltaics, and Innovative Drugs. The top five sectors for net outflow were: Entertainment Media, State-Owned Enterprises, Telecommunications, Biotechnology, and Steel [3]. Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector continued to attract capital inflow, with the leading securities ETF (159993) accumulating 3.22 billion yuan over the week, surpassing a total scale of 20 billion yuan. There are expectations for mergers and acquisitions in the securities sector, driven by the backdrop of a "Financial Power" strategy [3]. - The approval of virtual asset trading service licenses for Chinese securities firms' Hong Kong subsidiaries opens a new chapter for financial innovation, potentially enhancing trading sentiment within the securities sector [3].

Group 1 - The China Banking Index (399986) has seen a strong increase of 1.14%, with notable gains from Shanghai Bank (601229) up 3.08%, Ningbo Bank (002142) up 2.44%, and Zijin Bank (601860) up 2.31% [1] - As of June 30, 2023, the total scale of the bank wealth management market reached 31.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.22% since the beginning of the year [1] - The decline in deposit interest rates and the regulatory halt on manual interest supplementation are expected to enhance the attractiveness of wealth management products, leading to increased capital inflow into the bank wealth management market [1] Group 2 - The China Banking ETF (512730) has risen by 0.90%, with the latest price reported at 1.79 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Banking Index as of June 30, 2023, include China Merchants Bank (600036), Industrial Bank (601166), and ICBC (601398), collectively accounting for 65.64% of the index [2] - Short-term deposit rate cuts may create pressure on banks' liabilities, but in the medium to long term, the cost of bank liabilities is expected to decrease, particularly with the repricing of long-term deposits in the third quarter [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the banking sector is experiencing a positive trend with several banks announcing dividends earlier than in previous years, indicating a strong performance in the sector [1] - The China Securities Bank Index (399986) has shown an increase of 0.31% as of June 12, 2025, with notable gains from banks such as Qingdao Bank (up 3.50%) and Xi'an Bank (up 3.08%) [1] - The China Securities Bank ETF (512730) has achieved a five-day consecutive increase, closing up 0.53% [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that the revaluation of net assets remains the core logic for investing in bank stocks in 2025, supported by an increase in insurance funds' equity asset allocation and the high-quality development of public funds [2] - The current asset quality of banks is stable, with a decrease in the non-performing loan generation rate for corporate loans, although retail credit asset quality requires close attention [2] - The macro policy direction aims to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector, which is expected to help investors reprice bank net assets, driving the upward valuation of the industry in 2025 [2] Group 3 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Bank Index (399986) account for 64.64% of the index, including major banks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the undervaluation of banks in terms of their earnings potential, with a focus on the stability of their return on equity (ROE) and the low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio compared to other sectors [1][2] - The average ROE of banks is approximately 10%, ranking them among the top five sectors in the market, while their average PE is around 6 times, the lowest across all sectors, indicating a potential for systematic revaluation of the banking sector [1] - The report categorizes banks into four quadrants based on the "PE-ROE" analysis, identifying banks in the fourth quadrant as having better-than-industry ROE but lower PE, suggesting a pessimistic outlook on ROE, which may lead to valuation recovery during the overall PE repair process, particularly for joint-stock banks and rural commercial banks [1] Group 2 - The CSI Bank ETF closely tracks the CSI Bank Index, providing investors with analytical tools to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies within the CSI All Share Index, which is categorized into multiple levels of industries [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Bank Index account for 64.64% of the index, with major banks including China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Agricultural Bank among the top positions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the banking sector is experiencing a positive performance driven by several key events, including the impact of the US-China tariff war, index inclusions, and changes in market expectations regarding major shareholders [1] - The banking ETF (512730.SH) saw a slight increase of 0.06%, with significant gains from major constituents such as Hu Nong Commercial Bank (5.68%) and Jiangsu Bank (0.90%) [1] - The inclusion of Hu Nong and Yu Nong in major indices is expected to bring additional passive investment flows, enhancing their market performance [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the insurance preset interest rate may be lowered again, which could increase the tolerance for dividend yields in the banking sector [2] - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to a narrowing decline in interest margins [2] - The recovery of bond investment losses in TPL accounts is anticipated as government bond yields decline, which may positively impact the banking sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with several banks reaching historical highs, driven by macroeconomic factors and investor behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 30, 2025, the CSI Bank Index (399986) rose by 0.64%, with notable increases in stocks such as CITIC Bank (601998) up 3.65% and QN Agricultural Commercial Bank (002958) up 2.98% [1]. - The CSI Bank ETF (512730) increased by 0.73%, closing at 1.65 yuan, and has seen a cumulative rise of 3.27% over the past month [1]. - On the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, the banking sector showed strength, with banks like Hangzhou Bank and Chengdu Bank reaching historical highs, contributing to a total of 11 stocks in the sector achieving new records this year [1]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Industry insiders suggest that the strong performance of bank stocks may be linked to macroeconomic conditions and a decline in investor risk appetite, making the low-valuation banking sector an attractive option for risk-averse investors [1]. - Some market participants anticipate that the recently issued "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" will lead fund managers to adjust their portfolios, which may have contributed to the rise in bank stocks [2]. - According to data from Industrial Securities, as of the end of 2024, the proportion of bank holdings in active funds was only 3.81%, while the banking sector's weight in the CSI 300 Index was 13.67%, indicating a significant deviation that may prompt active funds to increase their bank holdings [2]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Bank Index (399986) accounted for 65.11% of the index, including major banks such as China Merchants Bank (600036) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) [3].

Group 1 - Several bank stocks rose against the market trend, with notable increases including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (1.69%), Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (1.48%), and Nanjing Bank (1.15%) [1] - Hangzhou Bank's stock price reached a historical high, with institutions attributing this to policy support and improved risk management capabilities, leading to better asset quality and regulatory indicators for commercial banks [2] - The China Securities Bank ETF closely tracks the China Securities Bank Index, providing an analytical tool for investors by categorizing sample securities into various industry levels [2] Group 2 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Bank Index accounted for 65.11% of the index, including major banks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector shows overall stability with accelerated asset growth in joint-stock banks and city commercial banks, while large state-owned banks and agricultural banks experience a slowdown [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 19, 2025, the CSI Bank Index (399986) increased by 0.31%, with notable gains from Hu Nong Commercial Bank (1.86%), Yu Nong Commercial Bank (1.65%), Shanghai Bank (1.63%), Zhangjiagang Bank (1.43%), and Chongqing Bank (1.33%) [1] - The CSI Bank ETF (512730) rose by 0.12%, with a latest price of 1.64 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.67% over the past week, ranking 1/8 among comparable funds [1] Group 2: Regulatory Data - The Financial Regulatory Bureau released key regulatory data for Q1 2025, indicating that total assets of commercial banks grew by 7.2% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024 [1] - Loans increased by 7.3% year-on-year, but decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to Q4 2024, potentially influenced by financing demand and local debt replacement [1] Group 3: Profitability Trends - The net profit of commercial banks in Q1 2025 decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with state-owned banks showing a slight increase of 0.1%, while joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and agricultural banks experienced declines of 4.5%, 6.7%, and 2.0% respectively [1] - The company anticipates significant profitability pressure for non-listed banks, particularly those with a high proportion of small and micro loans and retail loans entering a non-performing loan generation cycle [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains that listed banks exhibit relatively stable profitability and recommends investing in state-owned banks with higher dividend yields [1] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Bank Index accounted for 65.11%, including major banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Agricultural Bank [1]