证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 中天科技（600522.SH） 业绩符合预期，新能源与海洋业务双轮驱动 TMT 及中小盘/通信 事件：公司 8 月 25 日晚发布《2025 年半年度报告》，公司实现营业收入 236.00 亿元，同比增长 10.19%；归属上市公司股东的净利润 15.68 亿元，同比增长 7.38%；归属上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 14.68 亿元，同比增长 10.58%。 ❑ 投资建议：公司是国内光纤通信和海缆领域龙头企业，在光通信、新能源、 电力、海缆等细分领域具有领先地位。在能源领域，公司实现从"产品供应商" 向"系统集成服务商"转型，成为全球领先的能源网络系统解决方案服务商，海 缆有望成为未来几年新增长驱动力。我们预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润 分别为 34.26 亿元/39.59 亿元/44.82 亿元，对应增速分别为 21%/16%/13%， 对应 PE 分别为 15.8X/13.7X/12.1X，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 ❑ 风险提示：光纤光缆招标不及预期、海洋业务竞争加剧、费用成本开支加大。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the Shanghai Aluminum futures have fluctuated, rising first and then falling, driven by sector resonance and cost - side logic. Alumina has experienced significant fluctuations under the so - called "anti - involution" drive, but the impact on the alumina industry is limited. Cast aluminum alloy's trend is similar to that of Shanghai Aluminum, slightly stronger, with a slightly upward - shifted center of gravity after July's fluctuations. Overall, except for alumina, the aluminum industry chain has been relatively calm and deviated from the fundamentals [94]. - Fundamentally, the upstream of the industry chain remains relatively loose. Ore imports have increased, and domestic mine activities are relatively few. Alumina production capacity utilization is high, and new capacity is gradually being put into operation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have high operating capacity due to cost reduction and profit increase. The downstream processing industry shows a slack - season performance, but profiles, primary alloys, and cable sectors are relatively strong. In the terminal market, State Grid orders in the first half of the year boosted the demand for aluminum cables, but now it's the seasonal slack season with reduced demand. In the third quarter, new centralized tenders are expected to stabilize and improve the situation. The end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the first half and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field have cooled the related industries, and it's hard to see improvement in the next 1 - 2 months. Other traditional demand terminals are relatively stable, with the growth of the automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, expected to slow down. The real - estate sector is still at the bottom, and the home - appliance industry shows resilience due to policy support. In August, the downstream aluminum processing industry is still in the slack season, and it's difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the short term. Low ingot volume in the industry leads to a continuous decline in inventory, and low inventory levels make price fluctuations more likely [94]. - In August, after the "anti - involution" cools down, the commodity market will adjust, and the non - ferrous sector, which has limited previous gains, will also be affected. Alumina will be most affected, and aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are also difficult to maintain at high levels. Attention should be paid to the warehouse - receipt level near the delivery date to prevent short - term price fluctuations. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 20,000 - 20,800; Alumina may return to around 3000, with a main operating range of 2900 - 3500; Cast aluminum alloy will also run weakly in the range of 19,500 - 20,200 [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Alumina**: The MA5 of the Alumina main - contract (SHFE 6273) is 3357.60, MA10 is 3326.40, MA20 is 3217.10, MA40 is 3067.30, and MA60 is 3041.18 [6]. - **Aluminum**: The MA5 of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract (SHFE 2214) is 20672.00, MA10 is 20681.50, MA20 is 20614.75, MA40 is 20499.25, and MA60 is 20337.83 [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The MA5 of the Aluminum Alloy main - contract (SHFE 6463) is 20073.00, MA10 is 20068.50, and MA20 is 19962.50 [10]. 2. Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume reached 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to May 2025, China's bauxite production was 22.017 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. Due to environmental protection and resource depletion, domestic bauxite production has declined, and the degree of external dependence will increase in the long term, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by factors such as shipping costs and geopolitics [15]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. Since 2024, alumina production has shown a slight increase, and in 2025, with the resumption of production and new capacity, the growth rate has further increased, and it is expected to achieve double - digit growth for the whole year. As of July 25, 2025, the total alumina inventory (market + factory) was 1.7235 million tons, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year [20][23]. 3. Middle - Stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was about 1.924 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 12.499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Since 2024, primary aluminum imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is relatively stable with a slight increase. Since 2024, the operating capacity has continued to grow due to sufficient hydropower in the southwest and new capacity investment. In 2025, with the decline in alumina prices and the increase in profits, the operating capacity has maintained a high - level operation [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.57% year - on - year and decreased by 3.23% month - on - month. It is expected that the aluminum - water ratio will decline in July [35]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: As of July 29, 2025, the full cost of self - supplied power aluminum plants is about 14,227 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 652 yuan/ton; the full cost of grid - connected power aluminum plants is about 18,455 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 2,124 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [39]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: In 2024, the aluminum ingot inventory change was small. In 2025, the inventory first decreased and then increased. Now it has entered the slack season and is in the process of slight inventory accumulation [42]. 4. Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry has been low, except for the aluminum foil and aluminum plate - strip sectors with an operating rate of 70% - 90%. In 2025, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work varied. In the slack season, the operating rate of each sector declined, but the profile sector showed a slight increase [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In June 2025, the import volume of un - wrought aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 20.2%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 542,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. The export volume in June was 25,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 66%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 120,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [53]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: From January to June 2025, China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production reached 3.5593 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.65% [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has increased, especially after entering the slack season in May, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term [59]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products; from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Affected by global trade barriers and tariffs, aluminum product exports may continue to decline [63]. 5. Industrial Chain Terminals - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, real - estate investment, sales area, and new - construction area all declined. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, and it will take time to recover [69][72]. - **Automobile**: In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The development of new - energy vehicles is rapid, but there is an "anti - involution" expectation, and the growth rate may slow down [75]. - **Home Appliance**: In June 2025, the production of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased to varying degrees. However, since 2025, the growth rate of the three major home appliances has slowed down, and it is expected to weaken further in the second half of the year [78]. - **Power Grid Investment**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China plans to invest 388 billion yuan in 38 UHV projects. In 2025, at least 2 AC and 4 DC UHV lines will start construction. From January to June, the national power grid project investment was 254 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.7%, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth [81]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 212.2 GW, a year - on - year increase of 107%. It is expected that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 250 GW in 2025, and the global new installed capacity will reach about 580 GW. After the end of the first - half rush - installation and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field, the industry has cooled down [84]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China imported 156,000 tons of scrap aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The import of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong due to the large price difference between refined and scrap aluminum [87]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - **Alumina**: In 2025, the supply of alumina has become more relaxed, and it is expected to maintain this state in the second half of the year [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In 2025, the supply - demand situation of electrolytic aluminum has deteriorated compared with 2024, and the degree of oversupply is expected to be more serious [89]. 7. Aluminum Price Seasonal Analysis Based on a 5 - year statistics up to 2025, the expected return of aluminum price from January 1st to December 31st is 1.15%, with 3 times of price increase and 2 times of price decrease. The maximum amplitude is 9.05%, the minimum amplitude is 4.63%, and the average amplitude is 6.56% [92].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly's assistant vice president, Song Hao, stated that the company benefits from strong cost advantages and low carbon benefits of granular silicon, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance with inventory levels around 10 days, which supports positive EBITDA in Q1 and stable cash flow [1] Group 1: Company Performance - GCL-Poly's granular silicon remains in a tight supply-demand balance, with inventory levels only around 10 days [1] - The company achieved positive EBITDA in the first quarter and is expected to maintain stable positive cash flow [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Since mid-April, silicon material prices have started to decline, having decreased for nearly five consecutive weeks [1] - The high inventory levels accumulated prior to the current period are a significant factor suppressing the rebound of silicon material prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic market experienced a surge in demand due to policy incentives, leading to significant price increases in components, batteries, and silicon wafers. However, following the end of the installation rush, demand has sharply declined, resulting in a substantial drop in prices across all segments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the photovoltaic market was stimulated by policies "430" and "531," resulting in a booming market where companies accelerated project progress and prices for components, batteries, and silicon wafers rose significantly. For instance, the average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers reached 1.28 yuan per piece, with increases of 16.36% from the beginning of the year [1]. - By early April, battery prices reached 0.32 yuan/W and component prices were at 0.78 yuan/W, reflecting increases of 14.29% and 14.71% respectively compared to the start of the year [1]. Group 2: Price Decline and Future Outlook - After the installation rush ended, terminal demand rapidly decreased, leading to a significant drop in prices. Post-May Day, the average transaction price for N-type G10L dropped to 1.01 yuan per piece, with similar declines for other silicon wafer types [2]. - The decline in silicon wafer prices is attributed to reduced downstream orders and strong buyer resistance to high prices. Component prices fell below 0.7 yuan/W and battery prices dropped below 0.3 yuan/W, indicating that prices have returned to or fallen below early-year levels [2]. - Looking ahead, while short-term demand remains weak, there is potential for price stabilization as current silicon wafer prices approach the cost levels for many companies. Seasonal demand in the photovoltaic industry, particularly in Q3, may provide a turning point for the market, suggesting a potential recovery in silicon wafer prices in the medium to long term [2].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant price surge across the supply chain, driven by domestic policy changes and increased demand for distributed solar installations [2][4][7]. Price Surge - The latest data from InfoLink Consulting indicates that prices for downstream products in the photovoltaic supply chain have risen significantly, with mainstream distributed component spot prices reaching 0.8 yuan/W in March, a 33% increase from the low of 0.6 yuan/W at the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The price of large-sized components is in short supply, with some high-priced orders reaching 0.85-0.9 yuan/W, marking a two-year high [4][5]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The price increases are attributed to a rush for installations ahead of key policy deadlines on April 30 and May 31, leading to tight supply conditions [4][7]. - Key components such as N-type battery cells, silicon wafers, inverters, and EVA have also seen price increases, with the average price of 182*210mm TOPCon battery cells rising by 0.05 yuan/W over five weeks [5]. Policy Impact - The surge in demand is linked to new policies introduced in January, which incentivize projects to complete grid connections before April 30 to qualify for full grid access [7][8]. - The 136th document mandates that all new distributed solar projects must engage in electricity market trading starting May 31, further influencing market dynamics [8]. Market Outlook - The recovery of overseas markets, particularly in Europe, is also contributing to the price increases, with expectations of a doubling of installed capacity by 2025 [9][10]. - Analysts predict that the photovoltaic industry is entering a price-upward cycle, with the sector positioned at a bottom level, and positive catalysts expected to emerge [10][11]. Technological Advancements - Trina Solar announced a breakthrough with its 210mm size perovskite/silicon tandem module achieving a peak power of 808W, marking a significant milestone in photovoltaic technology [13][14].