Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance of Qibin Group for the first half of 2025, indicating a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, suggesting a mixed outlook for the company amidst market challenges [4]. Group 1: Float Glass Business - In H1 2025, the float glass business generated revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, while sales volume increased by 7% to 52.21 million weight boxes [5] - The average price of float glass dropped by 29% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 500 million yuan and a gross margin of 17.8%, down by 10.6 percentage points [5] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to government policies, but the float glass industry faces challenges from high fixed costs and low price elasticity, resulting in ongoing price declines [5] Group 2: Photovoltaic Glass Business - In H1 2025, the photovoltaic glass business achieved revenue of 3.2 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with sales of photovoltaic glass processing sheets reaching 26.672 million square meters [6] - The demand for photovoltaic glass surged due to policies promoting distributed photovoltaic power generation, with new installed photovoltaic capacity reaching 212 GW, a 107% increase year-on-year [6] - However, as the initial surge in demand subsides, the industry faces challenges of oversupply and intensified price competition, leading to a rapid decline in photovoltaic glass prices [6]

浮法玻璃业务：均价显著下滑，销量同比增长。25H1，公司浮法玻璃业务实现收入28 亿元，同 比-24%，销售各种优质浮法玻璃原片5221 万重箱，同比增加339 万重箱（同比+7%），由此推算浮法 玻璃均价同比-29%；实现毛利润5 亿元，毛利率17.8%，同比-10.6pcts。25H1，国家继续出台稳楼市政 策，积极支持地产项目及时竣工及交付，为市场注入稳定预期，房地产市场目前仍处于筑底阶段，但改 善迹象已逐渐浮现，市场信心得到一定程度的修复。浮法玻璃在产产能在15 万吨/日以上波动，全国平 板玻璃产量5.14 亿重量箱，虽然产能、产量同比有所收缩，但整体仍处于高位。供需失衡带来行业库存 增加，深加工订单承压，叠加浮法玻璃行业刚性生产、高固定成本、低调节弹性的特征，导致浮法玻璃 产品价格持续震荡下行，产品毛利率呈下降趋势。 光伏玻璃业务：产销量同比大幅增长，收入两位数增长。25H1，公司光伏玻璃业务实现收入32 亿元， 同比+11%，销售光伏玻璃加工片26672 万平方米，产销量同比大幅增长。25H1，《分布式光伏发电开 发建设管理办法》等政策推动的光伏抢装潮，带来光伏玻璃短期内需求增加及价格阶段性上涨， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qibin Group (601636.SH) [5] Core Views - In H1 2025, Qibin Group reported revenues of 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10% to 890 million yuan [1] - The float glass business experienced a significant decline in average prices, with revenues dropping by 24% to 2.8 billion yuan, despite a 7% increase in sales volume [2] - The photovoltaic glass segment saw a substantial increase in both production and sales, with revenues rising by 11% to 3.2 billion yuan, driven by policy support and a surge in demand [3] Summary by Sections Float Glass Business - Revenue decreased by 24% to 2.8 billion yuan, with sales volume increasing by 7% to 52.21 million weight boxes, leading to a 29% drop in average price [2] - Gross profit was 500 million yuan, with a gross margin of 17.8%, down 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The market is stabilizing due to government policies supporting real estate projects, although the float glass industry faces challenges from high fixed costs and low price elasticity [2] Photovoltaic Glass Business - Revenue increased by 11% to 3.2 billion yuan, with sales of photovoltaic glass reaching 26.67 million square meters [3] - The domestic installed capacity of photovoltaic systems grew by 107% year-on-year to 212 GW, driven by policies promoting distributed photovoltaic development [3] - Despite the growth, the industry faces challenges of oversupply and declining prices as the initial demand surge subsides [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Qibin Group of 1 billion yuan, 800 million yuan, and 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The company is expected to maintain a stable revenue trajectory with slight fluctuations in profit margins due to market conditions [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic fiber optic communication and submarine cable sectors, with a strong position in sub-segments such as optical communication, renewable energy, and power systems. The transition from a "product supplier" to a "system integration service provider" in the energy sector positions the company as a global leader in energy network system solutions. The submarine cable business is expected to be a new growth driver in the coming years [2]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.43 billion yuan, 3.96 billion yuan, and 4.48 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing growth rates of 21%, 16%, and 13% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 15.8X, 13.7X, and 12.1X [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported total revenue of 45.065 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 48.055 billion yuan, 55.515 billion yuan, 61.525 billion yuan, and 67.081 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7%, 16%, 11%, and 9% [3][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.117 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.838 billion yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 3.426 billion yuan, 3.959 billion yuan, and 4.482 billion yuan in the following years, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, -9%, 21%, 16%, and 13% [3][14]. - The company’s current stock price is 15.85 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 54.1 billion yuan [4]. Business Growth Drivers - The renewable energy market is rapidly growing, contributing to steady performance improvements. In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.08%. The energy network sector is benefiting from national reforms in renewable energy pricing, leading to a surge in new installations [7]. - There is strong demand for submarine cables overseas, with the global market entering a new growth cycle. The company has secured significant projects and is expanding its global production capacity, including establishing a manufacturing base in Saudi Arabia [7]. - The company is enhancing its competitive edge in offshore engineering by developing advanced marine vessels and strengthening its capabilities across the entire industry chain, which includes construction, installation, and maintenance [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the Shanghai Aluminum futures have fluctuated, rising first and then falling, driven by sector resonance and cost - side logic. Alumina has experienced significant fluctuations under the so - called "anti - involution" drive, but the impact on the alumina industry is limited. Cast aluminum alloy's trend is similar to that of Shanghai Aluminum, slightly stronger, with a slightly upward - shifted center of gravity after July's fluctuations. Overall, except for alumina, the aluminum industry chain has been relatively calm and deviated from the fundamentals [94]. - Fundamentally, the upstream of the industry chain remains relatively loose. Ore imports have increased, and domestic mine activities are relatively few. Alumina production capacity utilization is high, and new capacity is gradually being put into operation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have high operating capacity due to cost reduction and profit increase. The downstream processing industry shows a slack - season performance, but profiles, primary alloys, and cable sectors are relatively strong. In the terminal market, State Grid orders in the first half of the year boosted the demand for aluminum cables, but now it's the seasonal slack season with reduced demand. In the third quarter, new centralized tenders are expected to stabilize and improve the situation. The end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the first half and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field have cooled the related industries, and it's hard to see improvement in the next 1 - 2 months. Other traditional demand terminals are relatively stable, with the growth of the automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, expected to slow down. The real - estate sector is still at the bottom, and the home - appliance industry shows resilience due to policy support. In August, the downstream aluminum processing industry is still in the slack season, and it's difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the short term. Low ingot volume in the industry leads to a continuous decline in inventory, and low inventory levels make price fluctuations more likely [94]. - In August, after the "anti - involution" cools down, the commodity market will adjust, and the non - ferrous sector, which has limited previous gains, will also be affected. Alumina will be most affected, and aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are also difficult to maintain at high levels. Attention should be paid to the warehouse - receipt level near the delivery date to prevent short - term price fluctuations. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 20,000 - 20,800; Alumina may return to around 3000, with a main operating range of 2900 - 3500; Cast aluminum alloy will also run weakly in the range of 19,500 - 20,200 [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Alumina**: The MA5 of the Alumina main - contract (SHFE 6273) is 3357.60, MA10 is 3326.40, MA20 is 3217.10, MA40 is 3067.30, and MA60 is 3041.18 [6]. - **Aluminum**: The MA5 of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract (SHFE 2214) is 20672.00, MA10 is 20681.50, MA20 is 20614.75, MA40 is 20499.25, and MA60 is 20337.83 [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The MA5 of the Aluminum Alloy main - contract (SHFE 6463) is 20073.00, MA10 is 20068.50, and MA20 is 19962.50 [10]. 2. Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume reached 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to May 2025, China's bauxite production was 22.017 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. Due to environmental protection and resource depletion, domestic bauxite production has declined, and the degree of external dependence will increase in the long term, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by factors such as shipping costs and geopolitics [15]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. Since 2024, alumina production has shown a slight increase, and in 2025, with the resumption of production and new capacity, the growth rate has further increased, and it is expected to achieve double - digit growth for the whole year. As of July 25, 2025, the total alumina inventory (market + factory) was 1.7235 million tons, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year [20][23]. 3. Middle - Stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was about 1.924 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 12.499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Since 2024, primary aluminum imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is relatively stable with a slight increase. Since 2024, the operating capacity has continued to grow due to sufficient hydropower in the southwest and new capacity investment. In 2025, with the decline in alumina prices and the increase in profits, the operating capacity has maintained a high - level operation [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.57% year - on - year and decreased by 3.23% month - on - month. It is expected that the aluminum - water ratio will decline in July [35]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: As of July 29, 2025, the full cost of self - supplied power aluminum plants is about 14,227 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 652 yuan/ton; the full cost of grid - connected power aluminum plants is about 18,455 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 2,124 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [39]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: In 2024, the aluminum ingot inventory change was small. In 2025, the inventory first decreased and then increased. Now it has entered the slack season and is in the process of slight inventory accumulation [42]. 4. Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry has been low, except for the aluminum foil and aluminum plate - strip sectors with an operating rate of 70% - 90%. In 2025, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work varied. In the slack season, the operating rate of each sector declined, but the profile sector showed a slight increase [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In June 2025, the import volume of un - wrought aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 20.2%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 542,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. The export volume in June was 25,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 66%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 120,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [53]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: From January to June 2025, China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production reached 3.5593 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.65% [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has increased, especially after entering the slack season in May, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term [59]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products; from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Affected by global trade barriers and tariffs, aluminum product exports may continue to decline [63]. 5. Industrial Chain Terminals - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, real - estate investment, sales area, and new - construction area all declined. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, and it will take time to recover [69][72]. - **Automobile**: In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The development of new - energy vehicles is rapid, but there is an "anti - involution" expectation, and the growth rate may slow down [75]. - **Home Appliance**: In June 2025, the production of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased to varying degrees. However, since 2025, the growth rate of the three major home appliances has slowed down, and it is expected to weaken further in the second half of the year [78]. - **Power Grid Investment**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China plans to invest 388 billion yuan in 38 UHV projects. In 2025, at least 2 AC and 4 DC UHV lines will start construction. From January to June, the national power grid project investment was 254 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.7%, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth [81]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 212.2 GW, a year - on - year increase of 107%. It is expected that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 250 GW in 2025, and the global new installed capacity will reach about 580 GW. After the end of the first - half rush - installation and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field, the industry has cooled down [84]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China imported 156,000 tons of scrap aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The import of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong due to the large price difference between refined and scrap aluminum [87]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - **Alumina**: In 2025, the supply of alumina has become more relaxed, and it is expected to maintain this state in the second half of the year [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In 2025, the supply - demand situation of electrolytic aluminum has deteriorated compared with 2024, and the degree of oversupply is expected to be more serious [89]. 7. Aluminum Price Seasonal Analysis Based on a 5 - year statistics up to 2025, the expected return of aluminum price from January 1st to December 31st is 1.15%, with 3 times of price increase and 2 times of price decrease. The maximum amplitude is 9.05%, the minimum amplitude is 4.63%, and the average amplitude is 6.56% [92].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly's assistant vice president, Song Hao, stated that the company benefits from strong cost advantages and low carbon benefits of granular silicon, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance with inventory levels around 10 days, which supports positive EBITDA in Q1 and stable cash flow [1] Group 1: Company Performance - GCL-Poly's granular silicon remains in a tight supply-demand balance, with inventory levels only around 10 days [1] - The company achieved positive EBITDA in the first quarter and is expected to maintain stable positive cash flow [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Since mid-April, silicon material prices have started to decline, having decreased for nearly five consecutive weeks [1] - The high inventory levels accumulated prior to the current period are a significant factor suppressing the rebound of silicon material prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic market experienced a surge in demand due to policy incentives, leading to significant price increases in components, batteries, and silicon wafers. However, following the end of the installation rush, demand has sharply declined, resulting in a substantial drop in prices across all segments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the photovoltaic market was stimulated by policies "430" and "531," resulting in a booming market where companies accelerated project progress and prices for components, batteries, and silicon wafers rose significantly. For instance, the average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers reached 1.28 yuan per piece, with increases of 16.36% from the beginning of the year [1]. - By early April, battery prices reached 0.32 yuan/W and component prices were at 0.78 yuan/W, reflecting increases of 14.29% and 14.71% respectively compared to the start of the year [1]. Group 2: Price Decline and Future Outlook - After the installation rush ended, terminal demand rapidly decreased, leading to a significant drop in prices. Post-May Day, the average transaction price for N-type G10L dropped to 1.01 yuan per piece, with similar declines for other silicon wafer types [2]. - The decline in silicon wafer prices is attributed to reduced downstream orders and strong buyer resistance to high prices. Component prices fell below 0.7 yuan/W and battery prices dropped below 0.3 yuan/W, indicating that prices have returned to or fallen below early-year levels [2]. - Looking ahead, while short-term demand remains weak, there is potential for price stabilization as current silicon wafer prices approach the cost levels for many companies. Seasonal demand in the photovoltaic industry, particularly in Q3, may provide a turning point for the market, suggesting a potential recovery in silicon wafer prices in the medium to long term [2].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing fluctuations in supply and demand, with production levels stabilizing and prices under pressure due to various market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Qinghai's 1.1 million tons per year soda ash facility is operating stably, while Shaanxi Xinghua's 300,000 tons facility is running at reduced capacity [1]. - Current light soda ash prices are at 1,350 RMB per ton, with major regional prices for heavy soda ash ranging from 1,100 to 1,600 RMB per ton [1]. - As of April 10, 2025, total inventory of soda ash in China is 1.693 million tons, a decrease of 0.009 million tons (0.53%) from the previous week [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that soda ash is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with production levels rebounding due to the resumption of operations at Jinshan [2]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on soda ash imports is limited, as the U.S. is not a major supplier, and the overall market remains stable despite some pressure from supply and demand dynamics [2]. - Ningzheng Futures indicates that the float glass industry is stable, with minor price adjustments in specific regions, while the soda ash market remains low with subdued trading activity [3].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant price surge across the supply chain, driven by domestic policy changes and increased demand for distributed solar installations [2][4][7]. Price Surge - The latest data from InfoLink Consulting indicates that prices for downstream products in the photovoltaic supply chain have risen significantly, with mainstream distributed component spot prices reaching 0.8 yuan/W in March, a 33% increase from the low of 0.6 yuan/W at the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The price of large-sized components is in short supply, with some high-priced orders reaching 0.85-0.9 yuan/W, marking a two-year high [4][5]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The price increases are attributed to a rush for installations ahead of key policy deadlines on April 30 and May 31, leading to tight supply conditions [4][7]. - Key components such as N-type battery cells, silicon wafers, inverters, and EVA have also seen price increases, with the average price of 182*210mm TOPCon battery cells rising by 0.05 yuan/W over five weeks [5]. Policy Impact - The surge in demand is linked to new policies introduced in January, which incentivize projects to complete grid connections before April 30 to qualify for full grid access [7][8]. - The 136th document mandates that all new distributed solar projects must engage in electricity market trading starting May 31, further influencing market dynamics [8]. Market Outlook - The recovery of overseas markets, particularly in Europe, is also contributing to the price increases, with expectations of a doubling of installed capacity by 2025 [9][10]. - Analysts predict that the photovoltaic industry is entering a price-upward cycle, with the sector positioned at a bottom level, and positive catalysts expected to emerge [10][11]. Technological Advancements - Trina Solar announced a breakthrough with its 210mm size perovskite/silicon tandem module achieving a peak power of 808W, marking a significant milestone in photovoltaic technology [13][14].