1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is experiencing intensified fluctuations, and the A - share market is in an accelerated style rotation phase. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend remains positive under policy expectations and fundamental support [2][3]. - The precious metals market has seen sharp fluctuations, and the short - term risk has increased. The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end [4][5]. - Copper prices are driven by both hedging and speculation, with the valuation rising. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [6][7]. - Aluminum prices have shown large fluctuations at high levels due to strong profit - taking intentions. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. - Alumina prices are stabilizing and oscillating. Supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, and follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. - Cast aluminum is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price movement follows the cost and oscillates at high levels [11]. - Zinc prices are running strongly, but weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, with trading enthusiasm converging. The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations [16]. - Steel prices are oscillating and rebounding. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation before the holiday, and the overall trend is oscillating [17]. - Iron ore prices are following the sector's rise and rebounding. The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. - Coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean export sales are expected to slow down, and downstream stocking demand is weakening [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Political uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the US are rising, leading to differentiated market risk preferences and increased volatility. The US Senate's appropriation bill is blocked, and there is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The US stock market is adjusted due to concerns about AI capital expenditure returns, and the 10Y US Treasury yield is at 4.23%. The US dollar index has recovered to 96.3. Gold is oscillating at a high level, crude oil has strengthened significantly, and LME copper has reached a record high [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market closed up on Thursday with a rotation of styles. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and technology stocks led the decline. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 3.26 trillion yuan, and the margin trading scale reached a new high of 2.74 trillion yuan. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend is positive [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Prices fluctuated sharply on Thursday. COMEX gold reached a record high in the morning and then tumbled at night, while COMEX silver also reached a record high and then gave up its gains. The flash crash at night was mainly due to profit - taking after the January delivery of COMEX ended, and then prices rose again after Trump's remarks. In 2025, global gold demand exceeded 5000 tons for the first time, and investment demand increased by 84% to 2175 tons. Central bank gold purchases slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons [4][5]. - The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end, and the short - term adjustment risk is increasing. The gold - silver ratio is expected to recover from a low level [5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, and LME copper reached a high of 14,500 and then fell back to 13,700. The domestic spot market had poor trading, and downstream buyers were hesitant. LME and COMEX inventories increased [6]. - The market is affected by geopolitical risks, and the volatility will further increase. The overall metal valuation will rise in the wave of AI and global electrification transformation. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the mine has proposed a new labor contract [6][7]. - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25,590 yuan/ton, up 2.92%, and LME aluminum closed at 3233.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.92%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased [8]. - The US government faces a partial shutdown risk, and Iran will hold a military exercise. The sharp fluctuations in precious metals and copper prices at night affected market sentiment, and profit - taking intentions were strong. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main futures contract of alumina closed at 2816 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. The national average spot price was 2648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The theoretical import window was open, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [10]. - After some alumina plants reduced production, the supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, but the overall supply still exceeds demand. Follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main futures contract of cast aluminum alloy closed at 23,850 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices also rose. The exchange inventory increased [11]. - Affected by weakening demand, the operating rate of cast aluminum continued to decline, and consumption continued to weaken. Cast aluminum itself has few contradictions, and its price movement follows the primary aluminum and oscillates at high levels [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc strengthened during the day and then fell back at night, reaching a new high of 26,985 yuan/ton. The spot market maintained a small discount. Social inventories increased slightly. Some mines had positive news about production [12]. - The market is affected by the uncertainty of the Iranian situation and the rise in overseas smelting costs. Although the overall situation is favorable, weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market saw active selling by holders, and the social inventory increased slightly [15]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom due to environmental regulations and production cuts, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market had different price premiums. The trading enthusiasm has converged, and the main contract position has not increased significantly [16]. - The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The medium - and long - term supply - demand situation is good. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [16]. 3.10 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 7.3 million tons. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Many electric arc furnace steel mills will stop production during the Spring Festival [17]. - Before the holiday, steel mill maintenance increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The demand is weak, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation. The overall trend is oscillating [17]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 86 million tons. Steel mill inventories increased due to pre - holiday restocking, but the daily consumption was at a low level. Overseas shipments increased slightly, and port inventories were at a high level [18]. - The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The price of Shanxi main coking coal decreased, and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased. Many coal mines will stop production during the Spring Festival, affecting a large amount of production capacity [19]. - Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. Although there is still some restocking expectation before the holiday, the overall driving force is limited. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed up 0.9%, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed up 1.84%. US soybean export sales decreased significantly in the week ending January 22. Argentina's soybean sales increased, and Brazil's soybean export forecast for January 25 - 31 is 189.245 million tons [20]. - US soybean export sales are expected to slow down as China shifts its purchases to the South American market. The expected high yield in Brazil limits the upside of the market. Downstream stocking demand is weakening before the Spring Festival. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [20][21]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 05 contract of palm oil closed up 1.15%. The US dollar index is weak, and there is a risk of supply interruption in Iran, leading to a significant rise in oil prices. China has completed the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed [22]. - The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable for the oil sector. Palm oil prices are approaching the pressure level. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's actions have increased market disturbances both domestically and internationally, leading to new highs in gold and silver prices, a rise in oil prices, and a recovery in the 10Y US Treasury yield. The A - share market has shown strong performance with 17 consecutive gains, and the market style has rotated to sectors such as the Internet, media, and AI applications. [2][3] - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has boosted the safe - haven sentiment in the financial market, causing gold and silver to reach new highs. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates in the January 27 - 28 meeting, and there may be two interest rate cuts this year. [4] - The copper price is expected to maintain a strong high - level oscillation in the short term due to factors such as the resonance with gold and silver, the demand prospects brought by global electrification and AI data center construction, and the structural imbalance in the fundamentals. [6][7] - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong due to the re - inflow of funds after the US Department of Justice's investigation of Powell, which has reduced the pressure of the US dollar on metals. [8] - The alumina price faces significant upward pressure due to the oversupply in the market, high inventory, and general procurement enthusiasm from downstream. [9][10] - The casting aluminum price will follow the cost fluctuations and show a strong performance, but the profit is compressed due to the poor cost transmission in the industrial chain and consumption suppression. [11] - The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term, driven by the macro and capital aspects, although the fundamentals show a divergence, with increased supply pressure and weak downstream consumption. [12][13] - The lead price will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, with the inventory increasing slightly but still at a relatively low level, and the supply - demand relationship remaining weak. [14][15] - The tin price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, supported by supply disruptions and consumption growth expectations from sectors such as AI, photovoltaics, and new energy. [16] - The steel price is expected to oscillate, with the industry's prosperity weakening, the demand in the off - season deepening, and the inventory starting to accumulate. [17] - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate, with a high arrival volume at ports and stable demand, resulting in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [18] - The coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate at a high level. The market sentiment has improved, but the price increase is restricted by the inventory pressure of finished products in the off - season. [19] - The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The USDA report is generally bearish, but the domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are expected to be depleted faster, providing support for the near - end price. [20][21] - The palm oil price is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term. The MPOB report's bearish news has been realized, and the high - frequency data shows an improvement in the supply - demand relationship, which is conducive to inventory depletion. [23][24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump has increased market disturbances. Domestically, he has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell and pressured the US Supreme Court on tariff issues. Internationally, he has imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Gold and silver have reached new highs, the oil price has risen, the US stock market has closed higher, and the 10Y US Treasury yield has recovered to 4.17%. Attention is paid to the US December CPI data. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market has continued to rise strongly with 17 consecutive gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165 points, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high of 3.65 trillion yuan. The market style has rotated to sectors such as the Internet, media, and AI applications. The margin trading volume has reached a new high, and attention is paid to the volume sustainability and the export and financial data to be released this week. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver have reached new highs. The main reason is the criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell by the US Department of Justice, which has triggered market shocks, a decline in the US dollar index, and an increase in safe - haven demand. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates in the January 27 - 28 meeting, and there may be two interest rate cuts this year. [4] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a high level, and the LME copper price reached above $13,000. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had light trading, and the LME inventory decreased to 137,000 tons, while the COMEX inventory continued to increase to 520,000 tons. The criminal investigation of Powell has intensified the contradiction between Trump and Powell, increasing the safe - haven sentiment in the capital market. The copper price is expected to maintain a strong high - level oscillation in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,650 yuan/ton, up 2.54%. The LME aluminum price rose 1.33%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The US Department of Justice's investigation of Powell has reduced the pressure of the US dollar on metals, and the re - inflow of funds has led to an increase in the aluminum price. [8] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 2,866 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot price was flat, and the theoretical import window was open. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price faces significant upward pressure. [9][10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 23,340 yuan/ton, up 2.3%. The spot price also increased. The cost of casting aluminum is supported by the strong performance of primary aluminum, but the profit is compressed due to poor cost transmission and consumption suppression. [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, the Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated strongly, and the LME zinc price closed higher. The spot market had poor trading, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The US Department of Justice's investigation of Powell has led to a decline in the US dollar index, which is beneficial to the metal price. The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term. [12][13] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, the Shanghai lead main contract oscillated widely, and the LME lead price oscillated narrowly. The spot market had active sales by holders at a discount, and the social inventory increased slightly. The lead price will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. [14][15] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, the Shanghai tin main contract hit the daily limit, and the LME tin price rose sharply. The supply side is disturbed by factors such as the instability in the Congo and the delay in tin mine复产 in Myanmar. The demand side has consumption growth expectations from sectors such as AI, photovoltaics, and new energy. The tin price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. [16] 3.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, the steel futures oscillated. The spot market had a trading volume of 105,000 tons. The industry's prosperity has weakened, with a significant decline in the apparent demand for construction steel and an increase in inventory. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention is paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm. [17] 3.11 Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted slightly. The spot market had a trading volume of 750,000 tons. The supply side has a high arrival volume at ports, and the demand is stable, resulting in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The price is expected to oscillate. [18] 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, the coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at a high level. Some coking enterprises in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia have raised the coke price. The market sentiment has improved, but the price increase is restricted by the inventory pressure of finished products in the off - season. [19] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The USDA January report is generally bearish. The US soybean yield remains unchanged, but the production is slightly increased, the export demand is decreased, and the ending inventory is increased. The South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. The domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the de - stocking rhythm is expected to accelerate. The price is expected to oscillate. [20][21] 3.14 Palm Oil - The December MPOB report shows that the Malaysian palm oil ending inventory is slightly higher than expected, but the export volume has increased, and the production has decreased. The high - frequency data in January shows a decrease in production and an increase in exports. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term. [22][23][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The main reasons were that after fluctuating in sync with precious metals and hitting new highs, long positions took partial profits at high levels. Although the US non - farm payrolls slightly missed expectations, the unemployment rate declined, and the US dollar index rebounded from a low level. S&P predicts that by 2040, with the development of global artificial intelligence and the upgrade of national defense security, the global total copper demand will increase by about 50% compared to the current level. If the world does not increase copper recycling and ore mining, it is expected to face a supply gap of 10 million tons. Fundamentally, the resumption of production of interrupted mines is slow, the supply of non - US regions is tight, the domestic social inventory has entered a seasonal accumulation cycle, the domestic trade spot maintains a discount, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrows [2][8]. - Overall, after copper prices hit new historical highs, the market needs short - term valuation repair, but the medium - term fundamental structural imbalance and the global electrification transformation trend will continue to lift the copper price center. Some radical dovish Fed officials still optimistically expect the interest rate cut in 2026 to exceed 100 basis points. Fundamentally, the strike at Chilean mines continues, the release of global refined copper production capacity is blocked, and emerging industries provide broad prospects for consumption growth. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong high - level shock in the short term [3][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From January 2nd to January 9th, LME copper rose from $12,460.50/ton to $12,965.50/ton, a 4.05% increase; COMEX copper rose from 569.8 cents/pound to 589.05 cents/pound, a 3.38% increase; SHFE copper rose from 98,240 yuan/ton to 101,410 yuan/ton, a 3.23% increase; international copper rose from 87,870 yuan/ton to 90,150 yuan/ton, a 2.59% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.88 to 7.82, the LME spot premium increased from $38.60/ton to $41.94/ton, an 8.65% increase, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from - 190 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 9th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 939,099 tons, a 5.92% increase from January 2nd. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 6,350 tons (-4.37%), COMEX inventory increased by 18,158 short tons (3.63%), SHFE inventory increased by 35,201 tons (24.22%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,500 tons (5.72%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The high - level fluctuation of copper prices was due to long - position profit - taking, the rebound of the US dollar index, the expected increase in future copper demand, slow mine resumption, and seasonal inventory accumulation [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of January 9th, the global inventory continued to rise. The LME copper inventory decreased, the SHFE inventory and Shanghai保税区 inventory increased. The decline of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts was mainly due to the increasing import loss, and the decline of the Shanghai - London ratio was due to the recent rebound of the US dollar [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: In the US, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than expected, indicating a weak labor market but no further deterioration. Trump's remarks on Greenland and the Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts affected market sentiment. In China, the CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Consumer goods prices rose, energy prices decreased, and food prices had a mixed performance [9]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued, increasing concerns about concentrate supply shortage. The resumption of other major interrupted mines was slow, and the global mine - end supply growth rate in 2026 will be less than 1.5%. In November 2026, China's electrolytic copper production increased year - on - year, and copper concentrate imports also increased significantly. In terms of demand, traditional industries such as power grid investment, white - goods consumption, and real estate were weak, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and AI data centers had strong demand [10]. 3. Industry News - **Mantoverde Copper Mine Strike**: Workers at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued their strike due to the failure of negotiations between the company and the union. The mine was almost completely shut down, and the operation capacity of the concentrator was only 30% of the normal level [13]. - **Mercuria's Investment in Kazakhstan**: Mercuria Energy Group provided a $1.2 billion loan to acquire Kazakhmys. It has carried out a series of metal - related transactions in recent years, and aims to increase its financing scale in the metal field in 2026 [14]. - **Codelco's Production**: Codelco achieved its production target in 2025, with a production of 1.333 million tons of copper, a 0.4% increase from the previous year. The company plans to increase production slightly to 1.344 million tons in 2026 [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, basis, spreads, and other indicators of copper in different markets, including Shanghai and LME, to help analyze the copper market situation [16][17][18].

Group 1 - On the last trading day before the holiday, the main copper futures contract in Shanghai rose slightly by 0.84%, closing at 98,240.00 CNY per ton [1] - On December 31, the domestic electrolytic copper trading volume was 13,600 tons, a decrease of 860 tons from the previous trading day, representing a 38.83% decrease on a month-over-month basis [2] - Chile's copper production in November fell by 7.18% year-on-year to 451,815 tons, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [2] Group 2 - According to Guoguang Futures, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that dovish officials believe a shift to a more neutral policy stance would help prevent further deterioration in the job market, with expectations of over 200 billion USD in reserve management bond purchases in the next 12 months to ease liquidity demands [4] - Copper prices have been rising recently, but profit margins for copper products are being squeezed, leading to a slowdown in production rates due to various factors including raw material prices and demand [4] - The inventory of cathode copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing, indicating a decline in downstream purchasing capacity, while the overall strong upward trend in copper prices remains unchanged despite recent high prices causing resistance from downstream buyers [4]

Group 1 - Copper prices opened slightly higher in the morning, with an increase of over 2%, but closed with a narrower gain of 0.84% due to a pullback after initial gains [1] - Domestic policy support has boosted expectations for copper demand, while a decline in precious metals has exerted some downward pressure on copper prices [1] - The December manufacturing PMI in China returned to the expansion zone, indicating an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes were relatively neutral, with limited guidance for the market, and the dollar index saw a slight increase [2] - The Fed is expected to conduct over $200 billion in reserve management bond purchases in the next 12 months to alleviate liquidity demands at the end of the quarter [2] - Global electrification and the AI technology revolution are anticipated to create strong growth opportunities for copper demand, despite slow recovery in global mining production [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to slightly slow down to 3.1% in 2026. Overseas macro themes will return to global central bank monetary policies, the US dollar exchange - rate center, and AI - driven global industrial transformation. The US may see further fermentation of the Fed's easing expectations, while the eurozone will enter a cycle of low - inflation and weak recovery. China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth under the dual - loose tone of monetary and fiscal policies. Global electrification transformation and the AI technological revolution will drive copper consumption growth [4][115]. - In terms of supply, the growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2026 may be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of overseas interrupted mines and limited release of new production capacity. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline by 2.5% year - on - year in 2026 due to low processing fees and reduced imports caused by a shortage of overseas non - US supplies [4][115]. - In terms of demand, new energy vehicles are expected to maintain strong growth, grid investment will maintain a steady growth rate, the wind and photovoltaic industries will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and AI computing power demand will drive the data - center construction into a new cycle. It is estimated that the domestic refined copper consumption growth rate will maintain at 2.1% in 2026, and there will be a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic refined copper market [4][116]. - In 2026, copper prices are expected to continue rising under the background of a warming global macro - environment and a tight supply - demand fundamental situation. The main operating range of Shanghai copper is expected to be between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and that of London copper is expected to be between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [4][116]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review - The copper price in 2025 showed a trend of first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. In the first quarter, it rose from 73,000 to a maximum of 83,000 due to factors such as the easing of trade concerns and AI - driven optimistic expectations. In April, it dropped significantly due to US tariff concerns. In the second quarter, it rebounded due to China's export resilience and domestic macro - economic policies. In the third quarter, it rose again due to intensified overseas mine - end disturbances. In the fourth quarter, it reached a new high under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. By December 5, the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 25.8% year - on - year, and the London copper rose by 32.8% year - on - year [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased in 2025. The social inventory of electrolytic copper in the second half of the year remained at a low level below 200,000 tons. The overall supply - demand structure was in a tight - balance state, and it is expected that the tight - balance will continue in 2026 with a downward trend in absolute inventory [15][16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US and Eurozone Economic Situations**: The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The US economy is driven by traditional manufacturing and AI, but trade protectionism may challenge the global supply - chain elasticity. The eurozone economy shows a weak - recovery trend, with the performance of Germany and France diverging [18][19][20]. - **Monetary Policies**: The Fed may have about two interest - rate cuts in 2026, and inflation is expected to rise moderately in the first half of the year and then gradually return to the 2% target. The ECB is expected to maintain a stable monetary - policy stance, and the risk of inflation rising due to tariff policies is low [21][22][24]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China's economy maintained stable growth in 2025. In 2026, China will implement expansionary fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on high - quality development, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will promote new economic growth points [25][26][27]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis - **Supply Disturbances and TC Forecast**: In 2025, global mainstream copper mines faced frequent supply disturbances, and the actual growth rate of copper concentrate supply was low. The annual long - term contract TC is expected to hit a new low in 2026 [28][32]. - **Growth Rate Forecast**: Without considering interference factors, the global mainstream mines will contribute about 980,000 tons of new copper - concentrate output in 2025, but the actual growth rate is only 1%. In 2026, the new output will be 533,000 tons, and the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5% [34]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis - **Domestic Production and Reduction Plan**: China's electrolytic copper production increased in 2025. However, the state will strictly control the expansion of electrolytic - copper smelting capacity, and CSPT members may jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. It is expected that the domestic refined - copper output will decrease in 2026 [44][45][46]. - **Overseas Capacity Release**: Overseas refined - copper capacity release in 2026 is limited. Some overseas smelters have stopped or reduced production, and the net new capacity is only about 600,000 tons, accounting for 2.1% of the global total in 2025 [47][48]. - **Import Volume Forecast**: China's refined - copper imports showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in 2025. In 2026, imports are expected to decline to 3.1 - 3.2 million tons due to high premiums of overseas US - dollar supplies [51][52]. - **Scrap - Copper Import and Recycling**: In 2025, China's scrap - copper imports shifted from the US to Southeast Asia. In the future, China will strengthen the internal recycling of scrap - copper resources, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow slightly in 2026 [65][66]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 26, 2025, the global visible inventory increased significantly. Overseas inventory had a structural mismatch, and non - US inventory may remain at a low level. Domestic inventory is expected to decline slightly in 2025 [71]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis - **Grid Investment**: China's grid investment in 2025 was lower than the target. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the total grid investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan, and the investment growth rate in 2026 is expected to be 3 - 3.5% [75]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market in 2025 was in a downturn. In 2026, the industry will focus on high - quality development, but the copper consumption in the real estate sector is expected to decline by more than 10% [76][77][78]. - **Air - Conditioning Industry**: The air - conditioning industry in 2025 faced challenges such as the uncertainty of national - subsidy policy continuation and weak external demand. The copper consumption growth rate in 2026 is expected to drop to 4 - 5% [79][80][81]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, new energy vehicles maintained strong growth. In 2026, although the purchase - subsidy policy will be adjusted, the sales are still expected to reach 1.85 million vehicles, and the copper - consumption growth rate will drop to about 15% [82][83][84]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: The global photovoltaic - installation capacity is expected to decline in 2026. China's photovoltaic - installation capacity will remain between 235 - 270GW. The wind - power growth rate may gradually get out of the trough, but the copper - consumption growth rate in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is expected to decline [86][88]. - **AI Data Centers**: The demand for AI computing power is driving the data - center construction into a new cycle. The global data - center scale is expected to reach 95GW in 2026, bringing about 1 million tons of copper - consumption increment [91][92]. - **Overall Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, new trends will drive domestic refined - copper consumption growth, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2.1% [95]. 6. 2026 Market Outlook - **Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors**: The global economic growth rate will slow down slightly in 2026. The supply of global copper concentrate will be tight, and domestic refined - copper supply will decline. The demand for refined copper will maintain growth, resulting in a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic market [115][116]. - **Price Forecast**: Copper prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, with the main operating range of Shanghai copper between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton and that of London copper between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [116].