可以说，内需也提了好几年了，但重要性从来没有像2026年这样重过。 说白了这也是形势所逼，今年前11个月，外贸顺差就超过了1万亿，看似可喜，但背后说明我们对于出 口的依赖已经到了极致了。 这些隐线，又都围绕着一个核心主干，这个主干就是两周前的中央经济工作会议所制定的2026年度经济 任务。 今天我们就来梳理一下。 这次的中央经济会议，将2026年的核心经济政策，定为——坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。 再扩大下去，可能就会适得其反，导致反噬，引发全球抗议。 12月底的政策真是层出不穷。但当我们细心梳理之后，你会发现所有的政策背后都有一条隐线。 目前来看，第一项还是增收，但这个也说了两三年了，这两年每年都说。 在刚刚结束的全国财政工作会议上，财政部部长蓝佛安公布了增收计划，总结起来就是： 1、尽量保证充分就业；因为有就业就会有一定收入； 2、从财政角度通过减税、增加社保、各种助学育儿补助等增加收入。 其实你会发现都是老政策了，但却很重要，因为这些都是用来托底的，是最基础的保障，也只是最稳妥 的保障，这个不多说吧。 在增收之外，我觉得这一次最大的突破是城乡二元体制的进一步破障。解放后，城市户口和农村户口是 一道天 ...

一、2026 年房地产销售量价仍有下行压力 （一）地产行业仍面临新房需求中枢下滑、库存压力、土地财政对经济拖累问题 1、美国住宅市场长期不存在住宅过剩问题。1）在 80 年代后的较长过程中，新房建设量 略超于人口净 增长需求，美国自住房屋空置率缓慢提升，尤其是 1996 年后空置率提升加 速，但高点仍低于 10%的临 界水平，总体存量住宅处于合理水平。2）存量住宅的持有结 构看，美国住宅自有率在 63-69%范围 内，较为稳定，1996 年至 2014 年存在先上升再回 落的过山车，本质上也反映了 08 年的次贷危机是在 总量住宅数量相对均衡情况下的居民 行为引发的结构性金融问题，而非住宅供需的问题。3）除 2008 年次贷危机前后，房价 在经济中主要以结果变量存在，绝对价格随着美国有经济稳步增长，中间随着 经济周期 有小幅波动。 2、美国开发商更偏制造业，中国更像投资行业。虽然同样是拿地—建设—销售的开发模 式，但中美房 企在拿地方式、建筑形态（决定开发周期）、销售制度等方面存在不同，导 致两国房企商业模式差别 较大。1）美国房企常通过期权等方式锁定土地价格，降低土地 投资风险（霍顿期权形式拿地占比约 60 ...

编辑 杨娟娟 同时，农民工城市融入度提高。根据农民工市民化进程动态监测调查，2024年，44.5%的进城农民工认 为自己是本地人，比2020年提高3.1个百分点。在进城农民工中，38.2%参加过所在社区组织的活动，比 2020年提高8.9个百分点，对城市的归属感和社会活动参与度不断提高。 新京报贝壳财经讯 9月28日，国家统计局发布《十四五"以来社会民生统计报告》。根据报告，农民工 规模不断扩大，农村劳动力持续向非农产业转移，农民工总量不断增加。2024年，全国农民工规模 29973万人，比2020年增加1413万人，增长4.9%，2021—2024年年均增长1.2%。2021—2024年，全国进 城农民工规模均为1.3亿人左右，规模保持基本稳定。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing total number of migrant workers in China, reaching 29.973 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 0.7%, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [3][6] - The distribution and flow of migrant workers have shifted, with 38.3% of out-migrant workers moving across provinces, while the majority (61.7%) remain within their home provinces [5] - The demographic characteristics of migrant workers show a rising proportion of female workers and an aging workforce, with the average age increasing to 43.2 years [6][7] - Employment structure is changing, with a growing share of migrant workers employed in the tertiary sector (54.6%), while those in the secondary sector have decreased [7][8] - Average monthly income for migrant workers has increased to 4,961 yuan, reflecting a stable growth trend across different regions [8][9] - Living conditions for migrant workers have improved, with an increase in average living space and better educational opportunities for their children [10][11] Employment Trends - The total number of migrant workers has increased by 220,000 from the previous year, with local migrant workers at 12.102 million and out-migrant workers at 17.871 million [3] - The employment distribution shows that 27.9% work in manufacturing, 14.3% in construction, and 54.6% in the service sector, indicating a shift towards more service-oriented jobs [7] - The average monthly income for out-migrant workers is 5,634 yuan, while local workers earn 4,291 yuan, with both categories experiencing growth [8] Living Conditions - The average living space for migrant workers has improved to 24.7 square meters, with significant differences based on city size [10] - The enrollment rate for children of migrant workers in educational institutions has reached 94.5% for preschool and 99.8% for compulsory education, showing improvements in educational access [10][11] - The report emphasizes the need for continued efforts to integrate migrant workers into urban life, including access to public services and housing [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends and statistics related to the migrant worker population in China, highlighting the growth in numbers, changes in demographics, and regional employment dynamics over the past decade [1][2][3]. Group 1: Migrant Worker Population Growth - The total number of migrant workers in China reached 29,973 million in 2024, an increase of 2.2 million from the previous year, representing a growth rate of 0.7% [1]. - From 2015 to 2024, the total number of migrant workers increased by 22.26 million, with a growth rate of 8% [1]. - The central and western regions saw significant increases in migrant workers, with the central region growing by 1,439 million (25.7%) and the western region by 1,394 million (26.8%) [1]. Group 2: Regional Employment Dynamics - The proportion of migrant workers in the eastern region decreased from 57.7% in 2015 to 51.3% in 2024, while the central region's share increased from 20.2% to 23.5% [2]. - In 2024, the eastern region saw an increase of 860,000 migrant workers, while the central and western regions also experienced growth [2]. - The central region's share of the total increase in migrant workers rose significantly from 49.8% in 2021 to 110% in 2023 [2]. Group 3: Employment and Income Trends - The average monthly income of migrant workers in 2024 was 4,961 yuan, an increase of 181 yuan (3.8%) from the previous year [3]. - The average income for outgoing migrant workers was 5,634 yuan, while local migrant workers earned an average of 4,291 yuan [3]. - The unemployment rate for external agricultural household labor was 4.6% in 2024, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Group 4: Demographic Changes - The average age of migrant workers increased from 38.3 years in 2014 to 43.2 years in 2024, reflecting an aging workforce [4]. - The proportion of migrant workers under 40 years old decreased from 70% in 2008 to 43.7% in 2024, while those over 50 years old increased from 17.9% to 31.6% [4]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives - The government plans to implement a new round of urbanization for agricultural transfer populations, focusing on easing household registration issues in large cities [5]. - Policies aim to enhance employment opportunities in industries with strong capacity to absorb migrant workers, particularly in services like elderly care and childcare [5]. - New measures will address housing security and public service facilities for nearly 300 million migrant workers [5].

Core Insights - The total number of migrant workers in China is projected to reach 29.973 million in 2024, an increase of 220,000 or 0.7% from the previous year [1][5] - The average age of migrant workers has increased by 4.9 years over the past decade, now standing at 43.2 years in 2024 [6][5] - The distribution of migrant workers has shifted, with the eastern region's share decreasing from 57.7% in 2015 to 51.3% in 2024, while the central and western regions have seen increases in their respective shares [2][1] Regional Analysis - The central region has added 14.39 million migrant workers from 2015 to 2024, a growth rate of 25.7%, while the western region has added 13.94 million, with a growth rate of 26.8% [1][2] - In 2024, the eastern region saw a positive growth in migrant workers for the first time in recent years, accounting for 39.1% of the total increase [2][1] - The employment of migrant workers in the eastern region increased by 860,000 to 15.363 million in 2024, while the central and western regions also experienced growth [2][1] Employment and Income Trends - The average monthly income of migrant workers in 2024 is reported to be 4,961 yuan, an increase of 181 yuan or 3.8% from the previous year [5][6] - The average monthly income for outbound migrant workers is 5,634 yuan, while local migrant workers earn an average of 4,291 yuan [5][6] - The unemployment rate for rural laborers working outside their agricultural households is projected to average 4.6% in 2024, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [5][6] Policy Initiatives - The government is implementing a new round of urbanization initiatives aimed at facilitating the integration of over 17 million migrant workers and their families into urban areas [7] - Policies are being developed to enhance employment opportunities in industries with strong capacity to absorb migrant workers, particularly in services such as elderly care and childcare [7] - The focus is on improving housing and public service facilities in cities with high migrant worker concentrations, addressing challenges related to residency and employment [7]

Group 1: Tariff War Overview - The United States has initiated a "tariff war" against all trade partners, increasing tariffs on China by 34%, bringing the total tariff rate to 54% since Trump's administration began [1] - China has responded with equivalent countermeasures, imposing a 34% tariff on all American goods [1] Group 2: Perspectives on Trump's Tariff Strategy - There are three main perspectives on Trump's tariff strategy: 1. It is seen as a deviation from economic principles aimed at fulfilling campaign promises and promoting manufacturing return [3] 2. It is viewed as part of a systematic policy to contain China, aiming to reshape a global trade system without China [4] 3. It is interpreted as a negotiation tactic, where Trump sets high tariffs to open discussions with all countries [5][8] Group 3: China's Response to Tariffs - China's immediate decision to raise tariffs is logical, as the first category of products (high-value items) is already restricted by the U.S., while the second category can be sourced from other competitors [11] - The third category involves substituting U.S. agricultural products with those from other countries, which may increase import costs but is manageable given current deflationary pressures in China [11] Group 4: Economic Context and Domestic Consumption - China is the largest manufacturing country but not the largest consumer, indicating a reliance on foreign trade due to insufficient domestic demand [14] - Past strategies to expand domestic demand have relied heavily on investment, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, but this approach is no longer sustainable [15] - A shift towards consumer-driven growth is necessary, requiring a reallocation of resources from investment to consumption [16] Group 5: Urbanization and Pension Issues - There is a significant gap between urban and rural income, with rural residents earning approximately 43% of urban income, highlighting the need for pension reforms [17] - Current pension levels are inadequate, often falling below minimum living standards, which affects the consumption capacity of rural elderly [18] - Improving pensions could enhance the consumption ability of rural families, thereby stimulating domestic demand [18][19] Group 6: Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - To achieve a robust domestic consumption cycle, addressing the dual structure of urban and rural economies is crucial [20] - Systematic reforms could potentially elevate China's status from the second-largest consumer to the largest globally, reducing vulnerability to external trade pressures [21] - The current crisis presents an opportunity for significant reforms that should not be wasted [22]