Macro Commentary - The US economy shows signs of weakness in employment data, with February non-farm payrolls significantly below market expectations, influenced by extreme weather, healthcare strikes, and the overextension of strong January data [2] - Despite a decline in labor participation, the unemployment rate has slightly increased, indicating a softening job market, but wage growth remains robust, supporting consumer resilience [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to only cut rates once by 25 basis points in June, as rising oil prices complicate the dual mandate of stabilizing employment and reducing inflation [2] Industry Commentary - The capital goods sector saw strong export performance in February, with excavator and loader exports increasing by 37% and 34% year-on-year, respectively, exceeding expectations [5] - Domestic sales of excavators and loaders decreased by 42% and 14% year-on-year, attributed partly to the Spring Festival impact, but overall sales (domestic + exports) for the first two months showed a 13% increase for excavators and 28% for loaders, indicating a positive start to the year [5] - The strong export data supports an optimistic outlook for the earthmoving machinery sector, driven by rising commodity prices and increased capital expenditure in global mining [5] Company Commentary - Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of HKD 38, as rising natural gas prices are expected to boost thermal coal prices, creating a buying opportunity [5] - The correlation between thermal coal prices and European natural gas prices has been historically strong, suggesting Yancoal will benefit from the current energy market dynamics [5] - ZTE Corporation (763 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price adjusted to HKD 38.6, despite a projected decline in net profit due to a significant drop in gross margin, primarily from an increased share of enterprise business [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.38%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2,199.973 billion yuan [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, basic chemicals, and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications lagged behind [1][6] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 1.72%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 3.15%. In contrast, the three major U.S. indices collectively fell, with the Dow Jones down by 0.95%, the S&P 500 down by 1.33%, and the Nasdaq down by 1.59% [1][6] Important News - The State Council held a press conference on March 7 to interpret the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft, which includes setting a GDP growth target with quantitative requirements and fostering emerging industries such as marine biomedicine [2][7] - On March 9, Brent crude oil futures surged by 22%, reaching a peak of $111 per barrel due to near-total shipping stoppages in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a chain reaction of production cuts among Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [2][7] Investment Insights - The report indicates that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% and a consumer price increase of around 2%. The social financing scale and money supply growth are expected to align with these targets [9][10] - A second round of capital injection amounting to 300 billion yuan is planned to support state-owned commercial banks, which is projected to enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of two banks by approximately 0.57% [9][10] - The focus will be on risk prevention and resolution in key areas, particularly stabilizing the real estate market and managing local government debt risks [9][10] Industry Analysis - The TV panel prices have continued to rise, with the trend towards larger sizes expected to persist. In February, the prices of LCD TV panels and monitor panels increased, with the highest price rise for TV panels reaching $3 [12][13] - The upcoming 2026 World Cup is anticipated to boost demand, leading downstream manufacturers to stock up, which is expected to support LCD TV panel prices [13][14] - The global shipment of large-size LCD TV panels is projected to grow, with significant increases in sizes such as 75 inches and above, driven by demand from emerging markets like India [13][14]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - The "Government Work Report" presented at the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress sets this year's main development targets, including an economic growth rate of 4.5%-5%, a target for new urban employment of over 12 million, and a CPI increase of around 2%. The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft outlines 20 key indicators in areas such as economic development, innovation, people's livelihood, and green - low - carbon development [2] - Reuters forecasts the end - of - season inventories of US crops in the 2025/26 season, with an average expected soybean end - of - season inventory of 344 million bushels and a corn end - of - season inventory of 2.136 billion bushels [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts the price limit and margin ratios for fuel oil futures contracts [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opens in Beijing, and the "Government Work Report" sets this year's development targets [2] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft proposes 20 main indicators, covering economic development, innovation, people's livelihood, and green - low - carbon aspects [2] - Iran's military official states that Iran has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz and is handling ships passing through the strait according to international rules [2] - Reuters releases forecasts for the end - of - season inventories of US crops in the 2025/26 season [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts the price limit and margin ratios for fuel oil futures contracts [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, coking coal, Shanghai aluminum, asphalt, PP [4] - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: non - metallic building materials rose 2.00%, precious metals rose 31.85%, oilseeds rose 7.75%, non - ferrous metals rose 26.19%, soft commodities rose 2.73%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 9.51%, energy rose 5.08%, chemicals rose 10.99%, grains rose 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.77% [4] Plate Position - The chart shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.64% daily, - 1.30% monthly, and 3.52% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell - 0.56% daily, - 0.70% monthly, and - 0.22% year - to - date, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell - 0.03% daily, rose 0.14% monthly, and rose 0.64% year - to - date [6] - Commodities: WTI crude oil rose 5.65% daily, 17.33% monthly, and 37.18% year - to - date; London spot gold fell - 0.70% daily, - 3.67% monthly, and rose 17.75% year - to - date [6] - Others: The US dollar index rose 0.25% daily, 1.43% monthly, and 0.79% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index rose 12.29% daily, 19.59% monthly, and 58.86% year - to - date [6] Stock Market Risk Appetite and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents charts of various major commodity trends, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 4, all the current-month contracts of the four major index futures declined. IF dropped by 1.16%, IH by 1.33%, IC by 0.61%, and IM by 0.9% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 26,703 lots, IH by 7,883 lots, IC by 58,264 lots, and IM by 48,216 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 825 lots, IH by 562 lots, while IC decreased by 22,275 lots and IM by 7,240 lots [2] - A-shares adjusted with reduced volume. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.98% at 4,082.47 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.75%, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.41%, and the Wind All A Index declined 0.69%. The market's total trading volume was 2.39 trillion yuan, compared with 3.16 trillion yuan the previous day. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 2.01% at 25,249.48 points, falling for three consecutive days [9] - Strong data reignited risk appetite. Technology stocks led the rebound of US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 1.3%. US Treasury bonds fell for three consecutive days, and cryptocurrencies soared. The US dollar index dropped 0.26%, Bitcoin rose 7.8% and broke through the $73,000 mark, and Ethereum once skyrocketed 11.7%. Precious metals rebounded slightly, with spot gold rising 1.0% and spot silver rising 1.78% after a spike and fall. WTI crude oil rose 1.6%, and Brent crude oil rose 0.7% [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **IF**: The closing price of IF2603 was 4,591, down 1.16% with a basis of -11.62, trading volume of 88,154 lots (down 18,914 lots), and positions of 140,207 lots (down 5,696 lots). The total trading volume decreased by 26,703 lots, and the total positions increased by 825 lots [1][2] - **IH**: The closing price of IH2603 was 2,972.2, down 1.33% with a basis of -2.01, trading volume of 44,988 lots (down 7,269 lots), and positions of 60,625 lots (down 1,496 lots). The total trading volume decreased by 7,883 lots, and the total positions increased by 562 lots [1][2] - **IC**: The closing price of IC2603 was 8,219.4, down 0.61% with a basis of -29.55, trading volume of 121,611 lots (down 28,621 lots), and positions of 134,589 lots (down 13,868 lots). The total trading volume decreased by 58,264 lots, and the total positions decreased by 22,275 lots [1][2] - **IM**: The closing price of IM2603 was 8,064.2, down 0.90% with a basis of -30.32, trading volume of 155,033 lots (down 24,945 lots), and positions of 179,738 lots (down 6,114 lots). The total trading volume decreased by 48,216 lots, and the total positions decreased by 7,240 lots [1][2] 3.2 Index Futures Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM at different time points (monthly, quarterly) from January 29, 2026, to March 4, 2026, are presented in graphical form [4] 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, including the increase or decrease in long and short positions and the net changes [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.5 Important Drivers - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to March 12th, with an 8 - day session and 3 plenary meetings. The agenda includes reviewing the government work report, the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, etc. There will be 3 press conferences and 3 "Representative Channels" and 3 "Minister Channels" [7] - The first press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held. The spokesperson Lou Qinjian stated that the 15th Five - Year Plan draft will be reviewed and approved, and this year will adhere to the strategic base point of expanding domestic demand, boost consumption, and formulate laws such as the Nursery Service Law. The basic policies of the Party and the state to promote the development of the private economy will not change, and the central government will introduce more policies to benefit Hong Kong [7] - The State Council Information Office will hold a briefing at 11:30 am on March 5th to interpret the "Government Work Report" [8] - Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease. China's S&P manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, higher than the expected 50.2 and the previous value of 50.3; the service PMI was 56.7, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.3; the composite PMI was 55.4, higher than the previous value of 51.6 [8]

Economic Development - The government aims to maintain GDP growth within a reasonable range, with annual adjustments based on circumstances [1] Innovation-Driven Development - The report sets a target for annual growth of social R&D expenditure to exceed 7% [1] Livelihood and Welfare - Seven specific indicators are proposed to address employment, income, education, healthcare, and support for the elderly and children [1] Green and Low-Carbon Development - Five indicators focus on carbon reduction and ecological protection, including a target to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 17% cumulatively [1] Security Assurance - Two indicators are established to strengthen the foundational security in food and energy production capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 14th National People's Congress (NPC) will focus on expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and supporting the private economy during its upcoming session, which will last for eight days from March 5 to March 12 [4][9][10]. Group 1: Economic and Development Plans - The NPC will review and approve the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline, which aims to transform party proposals into national will and collective action [7][9]. - The government will emphasize the expansion of high-quality consumer goods and services while closely integrating livelihood improvements with consumption promotion [9]. - The NPC will also discuss the National Development Planning Law draft to institutionalize effective practices in national development planning [8]. Group 2: Private Economy and Market Policies - The fundamental policies for promoting the private economy will remain unchanged, with the Private Economy Promotion Law serving as a foundational legal framework [10]. - The NPC will supervise the establishment of a unified domestic market and advance rural revitalization, aiming to allocate more resources to the livelihood sector [9]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and Robotics - The year 2025 is identified as a critical year for breakthroughs in domestic humanoid robot technology, with a focus on core technology independence and innovation [12]. - The government plans to enhance original innovation and key technology breakthroughs during the "14th Five-Year" period [12]. Group 4: Environmental and Social Legislation - The Ecological Environment Code will be introduced as China's second legal code, integrating existing environmental laws into a cohesive framework [13]. - The National Unity and Progress Promotion Law will be developed to ensure comprehensive leadership over ethnic work and enhance national cohesion [14]. Group 5: International Relations and Trade - China aims to be a safe and favorable investment destination for foreign businesses, emphasizing the importance of an open economy [15]. - The NPC expresses a commitment to maintaining stable and healthy relations with the U.S. and Europe, highlighting mutual benefits in economic cooperation [17][20].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft aligns with central requirements and is tailored to Shanxi's realities, outlining the province's future development strategy with clear work priorities and practical measures [1] Group 1: Economic and Social Development - Over the past five years, under the strong leadership of the central government, Shanxi has overcome challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and economic pressures, achieving significant progress in economic and social development [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical window for Shanxi to push for high-quality development and comprehensive transformation [2] Group 2: Key Characteristics of the Plan - The plan's core characteristics are defined as "accurate," "new," and "practical," focusing on aligning national strategies with Shanxi's advantages and emphasizing energy transition and industrial upgrades [2] - The plan specifies 8 goals and 11 key tasks, making the ambitious blueprint tangible and actionable [2] Group 3: Governance and Legal Framework - The draft outlines measures for better coordinating development and security, with specific requirements for modernizing governance systems and capabilities [3] - It emphasizes the role of the judiciary in social governance and conflict resolution, aiming to create a stable environment for high-quality economic development [3] Group 4: Talent Development - The plan's goals are seen as forward-looking and actionable, with suggestions for provincial policies to address talent shortages, which are crucial for high-quality development [3]