2026.03. 05 本文字数：1790，阅读时长大约3钟 作者 | 一财评论员 3月5日，十四届全国人民代表大会四次会议开幕，国务院总理李强向大会作了政府工作报告，回顾 过往，谋局未来。 今年是"十五五"开局之年，经济社会发展具有承前启后，引领未来的作用。政府工作报告明确提出， 2026年经济增长4.5%~5%，CPI涨幅2%左右，居民收入增长和经济增长同步，城镇调查失业率 5.5%左右，财政赤字率4%左右，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举 措与宏观政策协同。 今年的政府工作任务，可提炼为"强矛厚盾"。"强矛"，即加紧培育壮大新动能。优化提升传统产业， 培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，实施产业创新工程，打造智能经济新形态，深化拓展"人工智能+"， 促进新一代智能终端和智能体加快推广。 这些面向未来的制胜利器，如同一把把锋利的矛，不仅助力中国经济新旧动能转换，而且将推动中国 制造向中国智造的山海跨越，打造出一批引领全球科技浪潮的行业和企业。 "厚盾"，则不仅稳固中国经济社会发展的弹跳力，而且从根本上提升中国经济抵御内外冲击的能力， 提高风险消化吸收能力。 近年来扩大内需，抬升经济内循环 ...

大会发言人娄勤俭 就大会议程和人大工作相关问题 回答中外记者提问 这场发布会都回应了哪些问题 一起回顾 今天（3月4日） 十四届全国人大四次会议 在人民大会堂举行新闻发布会 十四届全国人大四次会议会期8天 大会议程共有十一项 娄勤俭介绍， 十 四届全国人大四次会议将于3月5日上午开幕，3月12日下午闭幕，会期8天，共安 排3次全体会议 。十四届全国人大实有代表2878名，目前已有2773名代表向大会报到。大会的各项 准备工作已全部就绪。 大会议程共有十一项。 会议期间将举行3场记者会，分别为 经济、民生、外交 主题。安排3场"代表通道"和3场"部长通 道"采访活动，分别在开幕会、第二次全体会议和闭幕会的前后举行。 事关提振消费、民营经济等 发言人回应民生热点 "十五五"规划纲要草案将提请大会审查批准并公布实施 娄勤俭在回答中央广播电视总台记者相关提问时表示，"十五五"规划纲要草案在广泛征求意见的基 础上，将提请此次大会审查批准并公布实施，使党的主张通过法定程序转化为国家意志和人民共同 行动。此次大会将审议国家发展规划法草案，以法律形式将成熟做法固定下来，更好发挥国家发展 规划的战略导向作用。 我国今年将坚持扩 ...

十四届全国人大四次会议今天（3月4日）在人民大会堂举行新闻发布会，大会发言人娄勤俭就大会议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记者 提问。 十四届全国人大四次会议议程 娄勤俭介绍，十四届全国人大四次会议将于 3月5日上午开幕，3月12日下午闭幕，会期8天，共安排3次全体会议 。 会议期间将举行3场记者会，分别为经济、民生、外交主题。安排3场"代表通道"和3场"部长通道"采访活动，分别在开幕会、第二次全体 会议和闭幕会的前后举行。 大会议程共有十一项 。 PHE 三、审查2025年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况 与2026年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的报告、 2026年国民经济和社会发展计划草案 四、审查2025年中央和地方预算执行情况与2026 年中央和地方预算草案的报告、2026年中央和地方 预算草案 五、审议全国人民代表大会常务委员会关于提请审 议《中华人民共和国生态环境法典(草案)》的议案 六、审议全国人民代表大会常务委员会关于提请审 议《中华人民共和国民族团结进步促进法(草案)》 的议案 ■ "十五五"规划纲要草案将提请大会审查批准并公布实施 娄勤俭在回答 中央广播电视总台记者 相关提问时表示， "十五五"规 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of listening to the opinions and suggestions of private enterprises in the formulation of laws and policies, particularly in the context of the Private Economy Promotion Law and its implementation [3][4][5]. - The articles highlight the increasing role of the private economy in the national economic system, surpassing the "half of the country" mark, and the growing channels for private enterprises to express their opinions [2][3]. - The Economic Daily's publication of a letter from the chairman of Guangdong Youkai Technology Co., Ltd. reflects the media's commitment to addressing issues faced by private enterprises, such as disorderly competition and low-quality products [2]. Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has actively engaged with private enterprises, holding over 20 breakfast meetings and more than 160 discussions to gather feedback and suggestions [3]. - The articles call for further expansion of channels for private enterprises to voice their opinions and emphasize the need for effective feedback and problem-solving mechanisms [3][6]. - There is a strong emphasis on the necessity for regulatory and policy frameworks to genuinely reflect the rights of private enterprises and to address issues such as local protectionism and the enforcement of investment policies [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period for achieving socialist modernization and outlines the strategic direction for China's economic development amidst global uncertainties [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The session highlights that China's economy is at a stage where strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges, stressing the need to face significant tests with a proactive approach [4][5]. - The meeting indicates that achieving a 5% economic growth target for the year is supported by substantial financial measures, including the deployment of nearly 300 billion yuan in policy financial tools and the allocation of 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits [6][5]. Industrial Development - The session places a stronger emphasis on building a modern industrial system, explicitly stating the need to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing [8][7]. - It prioritizes the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries to enhance global competitiveness, while also planning for strategic emerging industries and future industries [8]. Domestic Demand and Market Integration - The session calls for enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of domestic circulation, with specific measures to stimulate consumption and investment [9][10]. - It emphasizes breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market, aiming to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [10]. Technological Advancement - The meeting underscores the importance of technological self-reliance and the role of new productive forces, with a focus on accelerating breakthroughs in key technology areas [11]. - It highlights the integration of technology development with digital economy initiatives and the need for coordinated development of education, technology, and talent [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of combining an effective market with a proactive government, reflecting a deepened understanding of the socialist market economy in China [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The platform economy relies on the innovative vitality and endogenous motivation of business entities to precisely match supply and demand, leading to transformative changes in production and lifestyle [1] - Industry participants, exemplified by the small elephant supermarket, enhance supply chain digitalization and quality-price ratio to effectively meet consumer demands for "fresh and fast" products [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company aims to continuously promote digital upgrades in service retail and commodity retail on both the demand and supply sides, guiding new supply through new demand and creating new demand through new supply [1] - The vast scale of the Chinese market nurtures technology, experience, and models that can deeply participate in industrial cooperation and division of labor in broader markets [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is committed to fostering new business formats through technological innovation, contributing to the construction of a unified domestic market and expanding high-level openness [1] - Looking towards the "14th Five-Year Plan," private enterprises are expected to unite and strive for new opportunities in the market [1]

Overall Market Analysis - Since late August, the A-share market has shown weakened upward momentum, with high valuation stocks experiencing reduced trading activity, while low valuation sectors have stabilized, alleviating potential volatility risks from high valuation adjustments [1][6][7] - The third quarter GDP growth rate was reported at 4.8%, indicating resilience despite a slight slowdown, with future economic policies likely focusing on expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces [1][7] - The market has returned to previous highs, with future market performance dependent on trading volume, and a short-term outlook of continued volatility is expected [1][7] Sector Performance Communication Sector - The communication sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 62.98%, second only to the 69.69% increase in the metals sector, driven by developments in artificial intelligence and domestic adjustments in computing capabilities [4] - The sector's performance is also influenced by positive news regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, although high valuation stocks may still face technical pressures [4][6] Electronics Sector - The electronics sector has rebounded, with a year-to-date increase of 45.64%, ranking third among industry sectors [5] - The sector benefits from U.S. export controls on chips, which favor domestic semiconductor companies, although competition remains fierce in the high-end semiconductor market [5] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised against aggressively chasing high valuation sectors like communication and electronics, and instead consider low-entry opportunities in sectors such as coal and banking during market adjustments [1][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - **Glass**: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, with a gross margin of 6.76%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.1 billion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company is implementing a comprehensive development strategy focusing on integration, scale, intensification, and differentiation, successfully entering the coal sector with a coal mine resource of 500 million tons in the Turpan region [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming domestic unified market policy, which is anticipated to enhance industry concentration and improve pricing power for leading enterprises [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 82.64 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 33.30%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 797 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 539.10% [5][14]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.982 billion yuan, 3.015 billion yuan, and 3.704 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18X, 12X, and 9X [4][14]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 4.6% in 2024 to 7.9% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [14].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in July 2025 demonstrates resilience and vitality despite external pressures and adverse weather conditions, with steady growth in production, consumption, and investment, alongside stable employment and prices [7][10][20]. Economic Performance Overview - The industrial output in July showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4%, indicating strong industrial growth [7][51]. - The service sector also performed well, with a production index growth of 5.8% in July, driven by increased tourism and related services [7][15]. - Social retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with a notable 4% growth in goods retail [8][14]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% from January to July, with significant contributions from equipment updates and manufacturing investments [8][45]. Trade and Employment - The total import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July, reflecting the resilience of foreign trade despite a complex international environment [8][31]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, indicating a steady employment situation [9][20]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing saw a 9.3% increase in output, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and new energy vehicles [10][38]. - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with a 8.4% increase in digital product manufacturing in July [10][38]. Consumer Trends - Consumer demand is being stimulated by policies such as the "old for new" consumption initiative, leading to increased sales in home appliances and cultural products [8][14]. - The service sector is experiencing growth, particularly in tourism and digital services, with a notable increase in transportation and cultural service indices [15][56]. Investment Landscape - Investment in manufacturing is growing, with a 6.2% increase in manufacturing investment from January to July, particularly in textiles and automotive sectors [45][46]. - Infrastructure investment is also on the rise, with water management and information transmission sectors seeing significant growth [46][47]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is supporting production and investment growth, with a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations [10][23]. - The government's commitment to deepening reform and opening up is enhancing the resilience and vitality of the economy [21][32].