会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕；增强宏观政策取向一 致性和有效性。 刘英分析，这传递出"双宽松"政策将延续并强化的信号，释放清晰的逆周期与跨周期调节意图，为经济 增长注入确定性。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。多位受访专家分析，此次会议释放三大信号，明确2026 年"稳增长"的工作主线。 一是以提质增效为引领，锚定高质量发展方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。提法与去年"稳中求进、以进促 稳"略有不同。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉认为，政策演进的方向是"提质增效"，意味着未来的操作将从"有没有"的规 模考量，转向"好不好"的效率与精准性考量。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英表示，从"以进促稳"变为"提质增效"，标志着宏观政策重心已 从"稳总量、保增速"逐步转变为"优结构、提效能"。其中，"稳"是基础，"进"是方向，"提质增效"则是 核心，这要求政策精准发力，减少无效供给，聚焦全要素生产率提升，为"十五五"开局筑牢高质量发展 ...

中新社北京12月11日电(记者刘文文)中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。多位受访专家分 析，此次会议释放三大信号，明确2026年"稳增长"的工作主线。 一是以提质增效为引领，锚定高质量发展方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。提法与去年"稳中求进、以进促 稳"略有不同。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉认为，政策演进的方向是"提质增效"，意味着未来的操作将从"有没有"的规 模考量，转向"好不好"的效率与精准性考量。 专家认为，明年经济工作的主线已然清晰，即以提质增效为引领、以"双宽松"为引擎和以政策集成为保 障，全力推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，为"十五五"开好局奠定坚实基础。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕；增强宏观政策取向一 致性和有效性。 刘英分析，这传递出"双宽松"政策将延续并强化的信号，释放清晰的逆周期与跨周期调节意图，为经济 增长注入确定性。 刘英认为，货币政策适度宽松的关键不在于降准降息 ...

定调来年中国经济政策走向的中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 这场重磅会议部署了哪些重点任务？房地产、投资消费、资本市场等领域将有哪些新动作？中新社国是 直通车第一时间采访多位专家，解读经济新机会。 田利辉："不变"，释放更为重要的三重信号 南开大学金融学教授田利辉：中央经济工作会议延续了"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策"这一表述，这释放了比"不变"本身更为重要的三重深层信号： 第一，确认了当前经济复苏的根基仍需巩固，宏观政策不具备"急转弯"的条件，体现了对经济现实清 醒、务实的判断；第二，在不确定性交织的背景下，基调的连续性是信心与信用的基石，旨在稳定长期 投资和消费心理；第三，指明了政策演进的方向是"提质增效"，意味着未来的操作将从"有没有"的规模 考量，转向"好不好"的效率与精准性考量。 刘英：明年"双宽松"政策将延续并强化 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英：中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策、 适度宽松的货币政策。这传递出"双宽松"政策将延续并强化的信号，为经济增长注入确定性。预计明年 财政赤字率有望继续保持在4%；货币政策适度宽松，其关键不在于降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of 3-4 cuts totaling 75-100 basis points, influenced by recent employment data revisions and political pressures from the Trump administration [1][10][13]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - Powell has adopted a dovish stance, indicating a shift in risk balance towards a downward trend in employment and a temporary inflation outlook [3][10]. - The current state of full employment is attributed to a unique balance from simultaneous supply and demand contractions, with significant downward risks anticipated for future employment [3][9]. - Economic growth has notably slowed, with actual GDP growth in the first half of the year at 1.2%, significantly lower than the projected 2.5% for 2024, largely due to a slowdown in consumer expansion [9][10]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart rate cuts, with Powell signaling that the current policy remains restrictive and may need adjustment based on economic outlook and risk balance [10][11]. - The Fed has made two key adjustments to its monetary policy framework: eliminating the inflation compensation strategy and shifting focus from solely full employment to also considering risks of both overheating and cooling in the job market [11][12]. Group 3: Impacts and Outlook - The anticipated rate cuts, combined with the effects of the "Big and Beautiful" legislation, are likely to lead the U.S. macroeconomic policy into a phase of "dual easing," potentially strengthening the economy and employment [13]. - Inflation risks may pose a threat to the upcoming midterm elections, prompting a possible shift in the Trump administration's approach to a combination of "expansive fiscal and stable monetary" policies [13]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Strategies - Market expectations for rate cuts have surged, with significant declines in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities and a drop in the dollar index [14]. - Recommendations include cautiously going long on U.S. Treasuries with shorter durations while being wary of long-duration bonds, and maintaining a short position on the dollar with an awareness of potential reversal risks in the fourth quarter [15].

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, GDP growth reached 5.3%, exceeding the annual target of 5%[4] - Retail sales growth was recorded at 5%, indicating a stable economic performance[4] Economic Challenges - Consumer demand remains weak, with real estate sales experiencing a decline in both volume and price[5] - External uncertainties have increased, leading to a marginal decline in exports[5] Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policy will continue to focus on "dual easing," with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies[2] - Structural monetary policies are expected to be the main tool for ensuring market liquidity in the second half of the year[5] Key Signals for Economic Development - The meeting highlighted six key signals, with a focus on the shift from goods consumption to service consumption and the deep integration of technology and industry[2] - The importance of service consumption is emphasized, with initiatives to stimulate demand in sectors like culture and tourism[6] Sector Focus - Investment recommendations include technology (computers, chips) and service-oriented consumption (cultural tourism, entertainment) as primary focus areas[2] - The infrastructure sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the acceleration of special government bonds[6] Financial Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to remain stable, with continued support for the financial sector under a loose liquidity environment[7] - Recommendations include focusing on brokerage and insurance sectors as potential investment opportunities[7]