中国人民银行 党委 书记 、行长潘功胜在 人民日报 发表 署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯 彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》。 以下为原文： 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神） 潘功胜 党的二十届四中全会 通过的《 中共 中央关 于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和 覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。这是"十五五"时期推动金融高质量发展、加快建设金融强国的战略举措，为完善中央银行制度指明了方向。 一、构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系的重要意义 习近平 总 书记 指出，金融是"国之大者"，关系中国式现代化建设全局。中央银行以维护币值稳定和金融稳定为双目标，货币政策体系和宏 观审慎管理体系是中央银行实施宏观管理的两项基础性工具，是实现双目标的双支柱。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎 管理体系，有利于把维护币值稳定和金融稳定更好结合起来，对于支撑金融强国建设具有重要的意义。 二是稳增长与防风险的关系。随着经济结构转型和信贷结构变化，实体经济需要的货币信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system as strategic measures for promoting high-quality financial development and accelerating the establishment of a financial power during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1][15] Group 2 - The importance of constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is highlighted as essential for maintaining currency stability and financial stability, which are the dual goals of the central bank [2][16] - This construction is necessary for accelerating the establishment of a high-level socialist market economy and addressing issues of unbalanced and insufficient development [2][16] - It is also crucial for promoting high-quality financial development and transitioning from extensive to intensive growth in the financial sector [3][17] Group 3 - The monetary policy system and macro-prudential management system are identified as core components of the modern central banking system, which need to be complementary and supportive of each other [4][18] - The 2008 financial crisis underscored that price stability does not equate to financial stability, necessitating a robust macro-prudential management framework [4][18] Group 4 - The construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system aims to achieve a dynamic balance among currency stability, economic growth, full employment, and balance of international payments [5][19] - Key relationships to manage include the short-term versus long-term dynamics, growth versus risk prevention, and internal versus external economic conditions [6][20] Group 5 - The main tasks for constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system include optimizing the basic currency issuance mechanism, improving the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, and enhancing the structural monetary policy tool system [7][21] - Continuous improvement of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and ensuring effective transmission of monetary policy are also emphasized [8][22] Group 6 - The comprehensive macro-prudential management system aims to prevent and mitigate systemic financial risks, observing and responding to financial risks from a macro and counter-cyclical perspective [9][23] - The system should cover the interconnections between macroeconomic operations and financial risks, as well as key areas in financial markets and activities [10][24] Group 7 - The tasks for building a comprehensive macro-prudential management system include strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, implementing risk prevention measures in key areas, and enriching the policy toolbox for macro-prudential management [11][26] - Establishing a financial stability guarantee system and enhancing financial security capabilities in line with the level of openness are also critical [13][28]

二、构建科学稳健的货币政策体系 习近平总书记指出，千招万招，管不住货币都是无用之招；要始终保持货币政策的稳健性。构建科学稳 健的货币政策体系旨在不断完善货币政策的体制机制安排，动态实现币值稳定、经济增长、充分就业和 国际收支平衡的优化组合，从源头上促进金融稳定。 （一）准确把握科学稳健的内涵和要求。要把握好货币政策的力度、时机和节奏，更加注重做好跨周期 和逆周期调节，保持货币条件与支持经济潜在增长和物价基本稳定的要求相匹配，提升金融支持经济结 构调整和高质量发展的适配性和精准性。重点需要处理好三方面关系。 一是短期与长期的关系。根据经济金融运行需要，综合运用各种货币政策工具，加强逆周期调节，有力 有效平滑经济波动。同时，关注跨周期平衡，避免政策大放大收，防止政策过度导致效果衰减和长期副 作用，更好支持重点领域和薄弱环节，在中长期促进经济转型和可持续增长。 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出， 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。这是"十五五"时期推动金融高质量发 展、加快建设金融强国的战略举措，为完善中央银行制度指明了方向。 一、构建科 ...

Core Viewpoints - The financial work during the "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on building a strong financial nation, emphasizing systemic risk prevention, policy coordination, and institutional openness, with a monetary policy that will maintain moderate easing and enhance transmission efficiency and structural precision [2] Financial Data Overview - As of October 2025, the M2 balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, showing a slight decline but remaining at a historically high level; the M1 balance was 11.10 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, continuing to show positive growth [2] - The social financing scale stock was 437.72 trillion yuan at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year [2] Structural Contradictions - In October 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions were 220 billion yuan, a significant drop from 1.29 trillion yuan in September, marking a new low for the year; market interest rates showed signs of weakness with the bill rate dropping to a historical low of 0.4% in August 2025 [3] - The banking system showed an excess reserve ratio of 1.40% in June 2025, higher than the average from 2018 to 2020, while the net interest margin of commercial banks was compressed to 1.42%, down from 2.08% in February 2021, indicating limited credit supply motivation [3] Current Financial Operation Characteristics - The current financial operation exhibits a dual characteristic of "ample liquidity and obstructed transmission," where despite a loose monetary policy and sufficient funds, the financing demand from the real economy shows structural weakness, particularly in traditional credit engines like real estate and local government financing platforms [3] Improvement Signs - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) removed the phrase "preventing fund circulation" from its third-quarter monetary policy report, suggesting that related risks may have been controlled to a certain extent [4] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The tone of monetary policy shifted from "implementing detailed moderate easing" in the second quarter to "implementing moderate easing well," indicating a focus on the effectiveness and efficiency of policies [5] - The PBOC emphasized the need to activate financing demand in the real economy as a core task to stabilize macroeconomic operations [5] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to have greater space in the future, with a shift from quantity indicators to price indicators being an absolute trend [5][19] - The current structural monetary policy scale is at least 5 trillion yuan, indicating significant potential for future expansion [10] Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The PBOC's purchase of government bonds is seen as a key manifestation of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing liquidity management and stabilizing market expectations [23][24] - The central bank's support for fiscal policy is expected to increase as the scale of government bond issuance expands [24] Future Economic Outlook - The financial sector is urged to play a role in technological innovation, as the low-interest-rate environment may lead to a normalization of low financial and consumption demand [22] - The PBOC's approach to managing liquidity and interest rates will be crucial in navigating the economic landscape, especially in light of potential structural challenges [20][21]

Economic Analysis - The report highlights a renewed focus on "expanding domestic demand," marking the first increase in emphasis for the year, indicating a shift from previous reports that concentrated on supply-side issues[2] - It notes that the overall economic performance is expected to improve, with a reduction in the difficulty of achieving annual economic targets due to easing US-China relations and signs of price stabilization[1] - The report identifies a significant change in policy direction, emphasizing the need for a dual-pillar regulatory framework to maintain financial market stability and prevent moral hazards[3] Policy Direction - The report suggests a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut to alleviate bank liquidity constraints, with a focus on maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions[3] - It emphasizes the importance of consumer finance, proposing measures to restore personal credit limits and reduce consumer finance interest rates, with current average loan rates dropping below 24%[14] - The adjustment in the approach to RMB internationalization indicates a shift from "cautious advancement" to "promotion," suggesting an increase in available RMB assets for foreign investors[15] Market Signals - The report indicates that the central bank expects a downward trend in social financing and M2 growth rates, suggesting that demand-driven interest rates are more likely to decrease than increase[20] - It highlights the limited upward space for interest rates, as the central bank aims to maintain reasonable interest rate relationships amidst a backdrop of low credit demand and stable deposit needs[22] - The overall expectation of a "double reduction" in monetary policy remains, with potential policy surprises being a trigger for market movements towards the end of the year[25]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to improve the central bank system, establish a robust monetary policy framework, and enhance macro-prudential management to support high-quality economic development [1][7]. Monetary Policy Framework - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to create a scientific and robust monetary policy system to achieve a balance among price stability, economic growth, full employment, and international balance of payments [1][2]. - The PBOC will focus on optimizing the mechanism for basic currency issuance and monetary supply control, ensuring reasonable growth in total financial volume [2][3]. - The PBOC will avoid excessive liquidity injection and will utilize tools like reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to maintain liquidity based on economic conditions [2][3]. Macro-Prudential Management - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system is essential for preventing systemic financial risks and maintaining financial stability [4][5]. - The PBOC will enhance monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, improve risk prevention measures for key institutions and sectors, and expand the macro-prudential management toolbox [4][5]. - The management system will also include a focus on cross-market and cross-institutional risk monitoring and regulation of shadow banking [5]. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism - Improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is crucial for enhancing financial services to the real economy [6]. - The PBOC will promote interest rate marketization, strengthen the guiding role of policy rates, and optimize the transmission paths from financial institutions to the real economy [6]. - Transparency in monetary policy and effective communication of policy intentions will be key to ensuring market understanding and enhancing the effectiveness of policy implementation [6]. Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides clear direction for the central bank's priorities over the next five years, with expectations for a stable monetary and financial environment to support high-quality economic development [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the changes in China's monetary policy framework and its implications for economic growth and liquidity management. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Changes**: Since 2025, the main constraints on monetary policy have shifted from stabilizing the exchange rate to addressing net interest margin pressures and risk prevention. The exchange rate is no longer a significant constraint as of Q2 2025, with the USDCNH and USDCNY reaching a unified rate of 7.10 [2][3][4]. 2. **Need for Rate Cuts**: The necessity for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions is increasing, particularly if Q3 GDP growth falls below 5.0%. Economic data from July and August has consistently underperformed expectations, indicating a potential need for policy adjustments [4][24][26]. 3. **Government Bond Trading Resumption**: The conditions for resuming government bond trading are becoming more favorable. After a pause in Q1 2025, market expectations for a resumption have grown, especially if the Ministry of Finance issues bonds early in Q4 2025, which could alleviate supply pressure [5][26]. 4. **Framework Evolution**: The monetary policy framework has evolved to focus more on price-based controls rather than quantity-based tools. Key indicators now include M2, social financing, and loan growth, reflecting a shift in the central bank's strategy to stabilize economic growth [6][8][27]. 5. **Liquidity Management**: The liquidity management framework has changed significantly, relying on various tools such as overnight and 7-day reverse repos, with government bond trading serving as a supplementary tool when other methods are insufficient [13][14][19]. 6. **Dual Pillar System**: The dual pillar system distinguishes between monetary policy aimed at macroeconomic stability and macro-prudential policy focused on preventing systemic financial risks. This includes measures like the "three red lines" in the real estate sector [10][11][12]. 7. **Interest Rate Corridor Adjustments**: The interest rate corridor mechanism has undergone changes, with the 7-day reverse repo rate becoming the primary policy rate. The new corridor reflects a narrower range of fluctuations compared to previous versions [20][23]. 8. **Future Expectations**: There is a high probability of further rate cuts and RRR reductions in Q4 2025 to support economic growth targets. The resumption of government bond trading is also anticipated as a liquidity management tool rather than a price control measure [26][27]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The central bank's focus on price-based tools indicates a strategic shift in response to changing economic conditions, emphasizing the need for market adaptation to these evolving frameworks [27]. - The potential for hidden interest rate hikes due to increased government bond supply highlights the delicate balance the central bank must maintain in managing liquidity and interest rates [5][19].