格隆汇12月17日｜摩根大通发表研究报告指，是次中央经济工作会议对内地银行业的启示，在于宏观环 境稳定的支持下，银行股股价仍有绝对上升空间。该行认为，收益型股票相对于银行指数的优异表现可 能会在明年减弱，原因包括：政策支持可能更趋审慎，债券收益率将保持稳定，限制股息差距空间。 该行预计中国人民银行明年上下半年各降息10个基点，并在2026年第一季将存款准备金率(RRR)下调50 个基点，以缓解流动性压力并支撑银行利润率。市场普遍预期，2026年一年期贷款市场报价利率(LPR) 将下调近20个基点。 另外，该行认为防范风险依然是金融监管机构的重点工作，有助降低了尾部风险 事件发生的可能性。而反内卷运动将促使银行业强化定价纪律，对净息差前景构成支持。最后，该行预 期对消费及科技金融的支援力度将加大，而部分股份制银行在这些领域具备竞争优势。 ...

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: The report indicates that GCL-Poly Energy (03800) has placed 4.736 billion new shares to Wujing Capital Management at a price of HKD 1.15 per share, with net proceeds intended for establishing capital reserves for anti-involution measures and developing silane gas [1] - The bank expresses optimism about the solar industry, expecting a gradual elimination of excess capacity by the first half of next year, leading to a healthier and more balanced supply-demand relationship [1] - Due to increasing government support for anti-involution initiatives, the target price for GCL-Poly has been raised from HKD 1.45 to HKD 1.65, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

星展发布研报称，协鑫科技(03800)向无极资本管理配售47.36亿股新股，每股作价1.15港元。所得款项 净额将用作设立反内卷措施资本储备及开发硅甲烷气体。该行表示，对太阳能行业可在明年上半年逐步 消除过剩产能感到乐观，相信供需之间会更加健康和平衡。考虑到内地政府对愈来愈支持反内卷运动， 将协鑫科技目标价由1.45港元上调至1.65港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited is issuing 4.736 billion new shares at a price of HKD 1.15 per share to raise funds for establishing a capital reserve for anti-involution measures and developing silane gas [1] - DBS Group expresses optimism about the solar industry, predicting that excess capacity will gradually be eliminated by the first half of next year, leading to a healthier and more balanced supply-demand relationship [1] - Due to increasing government support for anti-involution initiatives, DBS has raised the target price for GCL-Poly from HKD 1.45 to HKD 1.65 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that the "anti-involution" movement in mainland China is expanding into various sectors, including healthcare and financial services, with analysts expressing skepticism about the potential impacts of these measures on the market [1][2] Group 1: Industry Impact - The "anti-involution" movement has shown varying intensity across different industries, with regulatory bodies urging companies in the food delivery and automotive sectors to rectify promotional behaviors and engage in rational competition [2] - In the solar industry, manufacturers are prohibited from selling below cost according to the Price Law, while in the coal sector, production is limited to 110% of total capacity across eight provinces [2] - The lithium industry is facing increased scrutiny over illegal mining activities, and in the pig farming sector, stricter capacity controls are being emphasized [2] - Overall, the current measures are considered less intense compared to interventions in 2014-2015 but cover a broader range of industries [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - UBS identifies key motivations behind these measures, including enhancing corporate profitability and government tax revenue domestically, and addressing international resistance to China's industrial overcapacity [3] - The firm believes that the risk is skewed to the upside, as average performance in related sectors has not significantly outperformed the market, and investor expectations are generally low [3] - UBS ranks sectors based on motivation, demand response, and market pricing, favoring solar, chemical, and lithium industries for investment [3] - Preferred stocks in the solar supply chain include GCL-Poly Energy (03800), Tongwei Co. (600438.SH), and LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH); in the chemical sector, Hualu Chemical (600426.SH) and Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) are favored; and in the lithium sector, Salt Lake Potash (000792.SZ) is highlighted [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Supply-demand remains tight, recommend rolling bull spreads; unilateral trend weakens, sell at high prices for hedging [1][7] - PTA: Supply pressure gradually emerges, recommend basis bear spreads; unilateral trend weakens, industry can sell at high prices for hedging, focus on long PX short PTA in 01 contract [1][8] - MEG: Short-term bearish [9] 2. Core Views - PX: The "anti-involution" campaign in China boosts market sentiment, PX-naphtha spread widens, but future Asian supply will gradually increase [3][7] - PTA: With the reduction of polyester product inventory and the increase of开工率, the possibility of large-scale production reduction decreases, and attention should be paid to the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuation [8] - MEG: Import volume is expected to fluctuate, domestic supply is relatively loose, coal-based device profit rebounds, and the enthusiasm for EO device to switch to EG production increases [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The "anti-involution" campaign boosts market sentiment, PX-naphtha spread reaches the highest level since June 30, and naphtha is under pressure [3] - MEG: Trend turns weak [4] Fundamental Data - PX: As of July 25, the operating rate of Chinese PX plants is about 79.9%, down from 81.1% the previous week [5] - MEG: Two Saudi ethylene glycol plants have restarted, and some EO-EG co-production plants plan to switch from EO to EG [5] - Polyester: A 500,000-ton polyester device in Wuxi stops due to a fault, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [5] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, MEG: Trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [6] Views and Suggestions - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, sell at high prices for hedging. Future Asian supply will gradually increase, and attention should be paid to the operation of PTA devices [7] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, industry can sell at high prices for hedging, focus on long PX short PTA in 01 contract, and pay attention to the compression of PTA processing fees [8] - MEG: Short-term bearish. Import volume is expected to fluctuate, domestic supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of devices [9]

Summary of the Conference Call on H-shares Investing Industry Overview - The focus is on the H-shares market in Hong Kong, particularly the investment framework and performance outlook for H-shares and the broader China equity market [2][29]. Key Points and Arguments Investment Framework Update - Southbound investors have increased their allocation to HK equities to 21% of HK free float, prompting a reassessment of the investment framework for H-shares [2]. - Key factors influencing H-shares include: 1. Policy and regulations 2. Earnings, especially revision trends 3. Innovations 4. Fund flows, particularly from southbound investors 5. Valuations 6. Macro conditions 7. Geopolitics [2][30]. Market Sentiment and Performance - The HK market may face pressure in the near term due to potential earnings downgrades, particularly in the food delivery sector [2][4]. - Despite this, there is optimism for "dip buying" due to attractive valuations, especially in AI-related tech stocks [4]. - The market has become less sensitive to geopolitical issues, with increased local liquidity impacting index performance more significantly [3][4]. Earnings and Economic Outlook - UBS analysts forecast a 4% downside to HSCEI consensus earnings, primarily due to competition in food delivery [4][63]. - The macroeconomic environment remains lukewarm with limited stimulus expectations in the near term [4]. - Earnings revision is identified as the most critical driver of stock price performance in the HK market [11][77]. Sector and Stock Selection - A barbell strategy is recommended, favoring select internet and tech stocks alongside high dividend names [5][24]. - Small-cap stocks are viewed as having potential for convergence with A-shares, supported by increased interest from southbound investors [5][28]. Fund Flows and Liquidity - Southbound inflows are expected to decelerate in the second half of the year, although they may be offset by foreign inflows [4][63]. - HIBOR has declined significantly, with expectations of a slight rebound, which may affect liquidity [4][64]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Anticipated policy changes, particularly related to the "anti-involution" campaign, could provide support for the market [4][64]. - The influence of tariffs and geopolitical factors has diminished, although uncertainty remains [4][64]. Valuation and Market Drivers - Valuations are not cheap compared to historical levels but remain attractive relative to other major markets [65]. - The report suggests that the HK equity market is likely to consolidate as it awaits catalysts such as competition normalization in food delivery and government responses to economic slowdowns [70]. Additional Important Insights - The correlation between economic factors and stock performance has decreased, with earnings revisions becoming more significant [3][34]. - The report highlights the importance of innovation, particularly in AI and healthcare, as a supportive factor for market performance in the second half of the year [4][64]. - A detailed list of companies with significant earnings forecast downgrades was provided, including Meituan (-45%) and Zhongsheng Group (-36%) [56]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the H-shares market and broader equity landscape in Hong Kong, emphasizing the evolving dynamics of investment strategies and market influences.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, there were many negative factors in the bond market, including a tightening of the capital market, relatively smooth progress in tariff updates, and a certain increase in the stock market and commodities during the domestic "anti-involution" movement, which suppressed bond market sentiment. The bond market fell rapidly throughout the week, with ultra-long bonds experiencing a slight decline [1][3][12][35]. - As of July 11, the spread between the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year Treasury bond was 21BP, at a historically low level. The 5-month domestic GDP year-on-year growth rate was about 5.0%, slightly lower than April but still higher than the annual economic growth target. There is still a risk of deflation. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the term spread protection for the 30-year Treasury bond is limited [2][13]. - As of July 11, the spread between the 20-year China Development Bank bond and the 20-year Treasury bond was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economy still shows resilience, but there is still downward pressure. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the spread protection for the 20-year China Development Bank bond is limited [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: This week, the bond market was affected by multiple negative factors, resulting in a rapid decline in the bond market and a slight decline in ultra-long bonds. Last week, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][12]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: For 30-year Treasury bonds and 20-year China Development Bank bonds, the spreads are at historically low levels. The domestic economy shows resilience but also faces downward pressure. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the spread protection is limited [2][3][13][14]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of June 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.5% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30-year variety has the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (July 7 - July 11, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, totaling 83 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the majority. By term, 30-year bonds had the largest issuance volume [20]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 224.1 billion yuan, including 123 billion yuan of ultra-long Treasury bonds and 101.1 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 1.0286 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week [27]. - **Yield**: This week, due to multiple negative factors, the bond market fell rapidly, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The yields of different types of ultra-long bonds changed to varying degrees [35]. - **Spread Analysis**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed, both at low absolute levels [44][47]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year Treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.61 yuan, with a decline of 0.49%. The total trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly compared to the previous week [50].