瑞银根据以下标准对板块进行排名：1)动机，即价格无序竞争的程度(利润率愈低的板块，动机愈强);2) 需求反应及对价格和利润率的潜在影响;3)市场已定价的程度。基于上述标准，该行偏好太阳能、化工 和锂行业，太阳能供应链板块首选股包括协鑫科技(03800)、通威股份(600438.SH)及隆基绿能 (601012.SH);化工板块首选华鲁恒升(600426.SH)及恒力石化(600346.SH);锂行业首选盐湖股份 (000792.SZ)。 该行指，内地"反内卷"运动似乎已扩展到多个领域，但各行业的强度差异显著：在外卖和汽车行业，监 管机构召集相关企业，敦促其整改某些促销行为并进行理性竞争;在太阳能行业，根据《价格法》，禁 止制造商以低于成本的价格销售;在煤炭行业，监管机构将8个省份的产量限制在总产能的110%以内;在 锂行业，监管机构加强对非法采矿活动的审查;在生猪养殖行业，监管机构与生产商召开会议，强调对 产能的更严格控制;在化工行业，监管机构要求提供有关落后产能的信息;在医疗行业，监管机构表示在 药品和医疗器械的集采中需考虑其他非价格因素。总体而言，该行认为内地当前措施相较2014至2015年 阶段的干预程 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Supply-demand remains tight, recommend rolling bull spreads; unilateral trend weakens, sell at high prices for hedging [1][7] - PTA: Supply pressure gradually emerges, recommend basis bear spreads; unilateral trend weakens, industry can sell at high prices for hedging, focus on long PX short PTA in 01 contract [1][8] - MEG: Short-term bearish [9] 2. Core Views - PX: The "anti-involution" campaign in China boosts market sentiment, PX-naphtha spread widens, but future Asian supply will gradually increase [3][7] - PTA: With the reduction of polyester product inventory and the increase of开工率, the possibility of large-scale production reduction decreases, and attention should be paid to the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuation [8] - MEG: Import volume is expected to fluctuate, domestic supply is relatively loose, coal-based device profit rebounds, and the enthusiasm for EO device to switch to EG production increases [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The "anti-involution" campaign boosts market sentiment, PX-naphtha spread reaches the highest level since June 30, and naphtha is under pressure [3] - MEG: Trend turns weak [4] Fundamental Data - PX: As of July 25, the operating rate of Chinese PX plants is about 79.9%, down from 81.1% the previous week [5] - MEG: Two Saudi ethylene glycol plants have restarted, and some EO-EG co-production plants plan to switch from EO to EG [5] - Polyester: A 500,000-ton polyester device in Wuxi stops due to a fault, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [5] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, MEG: Trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [6] Views and Suggestions - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, sell at high prices for hedging. Future Asian supply will gradually increase, and attention should be paid to the operation of PTA devices [7] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, industry can sell at high prices for hedging, focus on long PX short PTA in 01 contract, and pay attention to the compression of PTA processing fees [8] - MEG: Short-term bearish. Import volume is expected to fluctuate, domestic supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of devices [9]

Summary of the Conference Call on H-shares Investing Industry Overview - The focus is on the H-shares market in Hong Kong, particularly the investment framework and performance outlook for H-shares and the broader China equity market [2][29]. Key Points and Arguments Investment Framework Update - Southbound investors have increased their allocation to HK equities to 21% of HK free float, prompting a reassessment of the investment framework for H-shares [2]. - Key factors influencing H-shares include: 1. Policy and regulations 2. Earnings, especially revision trends 3. Innovations 4. Fund flows, particularly from southbound investors 5. Valuations 6. Macro conditions 7. Geopolitics [2][30]. Market Sentiment and Performance - The HK market may face pressure in the near term due to potential earnings downgrades, particularly in the food delivery sector [2][4]. - Despite this, there is optimism for "dip buying" due to attractive valuations, especially in AI-related tech stocks [4]. - The market has become less sensitive to geopolitical issues, with increased local liquidity impacting index performance more significantly [3][4]. Earnings and Economic Outlook - UBS analysts forecast a 4% downside to HSCEI consensus earnings, primarily due to competition in food delivery [4][63]. - The macroeconomic environment remains lukewarm with limited stimulus expectations in the near term [4]. - Earnings revision is identified as the most critical driver of stock price performance in the HK market [11][77]. Sector and Stock Selection - A barbell strategy is recommended, favoring select internet and tech stocks alongside high dividend names [5][24]. - Small-cap stocks are viewed as having potential for convergence with A-shares, supported by increased interest from southbound investors [5][28]. Fund Flows and Liquidity - Southbound inflows are expected to decelerate in the second half of the year, although they may be offset by foreign inflows [4][63]. - HIBOR has declined significantly, with expectations of a slight rebound, which may affect liquidity [4][64]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Anticipated policy changes, particularly related to the "anti-involution" campaign, could provide support for the market [4][64]. - The influence of tariffs and geopolitical factors has diminished, although uncertainty remains [4][64]. Valuation and Market Drivers - Valuations are not cheap compared to historical levels but remain attractive relative to other major markets [65]. - The report suggests that the HK equity market is likely to consolidate as it awaits catalysts such as competition normalization in food delivery and government responses to economic slowdowns [70]. Additional Important Insights - The correlation between economic factors and stock performance has decreased, with earnings revisions becoming more significant [3][34]. - The report highlights the importance of innovation, particularly in AI and healthcare, as a supportive factor for market performance in the second half of the year [4][64]. - A detailed list of companies with significant earnings forecast downgrades was provided, including Meituan (-45%) and Zhongsheng Group (-36%) [56]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the H-shares market and broader equity landscape in Hong Kong, emphasizing the evolving dynamics of investment strategies and market influences.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, there were many negative factors in the bond market, including a tightening of the capital market, relatively smooth progress in tariff updates, and a certain increase in the stock market and commodities during the domestic "anti-involution" movement, which suppressed bond market sentiment. The bond market fell rapidly throughout the week, with ultra-long bonds experiencing a slight decline [1][3][12][35]. - As of July 11, the spread between the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year Treasury bond was 21BP, at a historically low level. The 5-month domestic GDP year-on-year growth rate was about 5.0%, slightly lower than April but still higher than the annual economic growth target. There is still a risk of deflation. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the term spread protection for the 30-year Treasury bond is limited [2][13]. - As of July 11, the spread between the 20-year China Development Bank bond and the 20-year Treasury bond was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economy still shows resilience, but there is still downward pressure. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the spread protection for the 20-year China Development Bank bond is limited [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: This week, the bond market was affected by multiple negative factors, resulting in a rapid decline in the bond market and a slight decline in ultra-long bonds. Last week, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][12]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: For 30-year Treasury bonds and 20-year China Development Bank bonds, the spreads are at historically low levels. The domestic economy shows resilience but also faces downward pressure. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the spread protection is limited [2][3][13][14]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of June 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.5% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30-year variety has the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (July 7 - July 11, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, totaling 83 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the majority. By term, 30-year bonds had the largest issuance volume [20]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 224.1 billion yuan, including 123 billion yuan of ultra-long Treasury bonds and 101.1 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 1.0286 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week [27]. - **Yield**: This week, due to multiple negative factors, the bond market fell rapidly, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The yields of different types of ultra-long bonds changed to varying degrees [35]. - **Spread Analysis**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed, both at low absolute levels [44][47]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year Treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.61 yuan, with a decline of 0.49%. The total trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly compared to the previous week [50].