国七排放标准的征求意见稿基本上已经制定出来，但颁布一直面临较大阻力， 主要来自整车厂。中国新能源汽车在国内市场已占 50%，新车排放压力不大。 而中国出口欧洲的基本上是新能源车，传统车则主要出口东南亚、中东和俄罗 斯等地，这些地区采用国六或欧六标准即可。因此，整车厂认为没有必要急于 颁布国七标准。预计国七征求意见稿将在 2026 年上半年颁布，并于 2027 年 实施，比预期晚一些。 国七排放趋势展望 20251225 摘要 国七标准预计 2026 年上半年发布征求意见稿，2027 年实施，晚于预 期，主要因中国出口欧洲以新能源车为主，传统车出口地排放标准较低， 整车厂认为无迫切性。 国七汽油车成本预计增加 1,500-3,500 元，柴油车增加 2-3 万元，主要 因需增加电加热催化剂、强化型三元催化剂、氮氧化合物传感器等，加 剧整车厂经营压力。 乘用车应对国七成本增加 1,500-4,500 元，大排量汽油车增加较多，混 动车增加较少；商用重型柴油车成本显著提高，增加 2-3 万元，因需安 装先进传感器及监控系统。 商用车辆推行国七预计在 2028 年后，或 2029 年前后，因重型柴油车 升级复杂且昂贵 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards low-emission and new energy vehicles, driven by regulations in Europe and the U.S. that penalize non-compliant companies, accelerating the phase-out of traditional fuel vehicles [1][3][4] - In China, policies such as restrictions on new fuel vehicle capacity, upgraded emission standards (National VI/VII), and incentives for new energy vehicles have significantly increased the penetration rate of new energy vehicles from 15% to nearly 50% [1][10] Core Insights and Arguments - **Regulatory Impact**: The implementation of stringent emission regulations, such as the EU's Euro 6d and the upcoming coffee regulations, is forcing automakers to phase out outdated models [3] - **Capacity Adjustment**: Companies like Beijing Hyundai are selling and shutting down factories due to declining sales, reflecting the need for capacity adjustments amid intensified market competition and geopolitical factors [1][8] - **Resource Optimization**: GAC Group's restructuring of GAC Mitsubishi to utilize idle capacity for GAC Aion's expansion demonstrates effective resource allocation and cost savings in new energy transitions [1][7] - **Export Growth**: Great Wall Motors and Chery have significantly increased their export volumes, reaching 334,000 and 936,000 units respectively, improving their overall export structure despite domestic market challenges [1][12][14] Important but Overlooked Content - **Historical Lessons**: The domestic automotive industry has learned from past experiences, such as limiting new fuel vehicle capacity and promoting mergers to optimize resource allocation, which has led to a more concentrated market [4] - **Future Challenges**: The introduction of the National VII emission standards will impose stricter testing requirements, likely leading to further elimination of outdated production capacities [13][15] - **Market Potential**: As of 2025, China's new energy vehicle penetration in overseas markets is 11%, with Western Europe being the most promising market at approximately 25% penetration [2][17][18] Notable Companies to Watch - **BYD**: Leading in the domestic new energy vehicle market, expanding into Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia, with overseas sales reaching 781,000 units, a 137% increase [19] - **Great Wall Motors**: Despite short-term challenges, the company is enhancing domestic channels and expanding into overseas markets, with future performance expected to improve [19] - **SAIC Motor**: Facing a decline in performance, but focusing on upward development of its own brands and stabilizing joint ventures, while collaborating with Huawei on new energy and smart technology [19] - **Yinlun**: Benefiting from stricter emission standards, focusing on automotive thermal management and exhaust after-treatment systems [19][21] - **China Automotive Research**: Stable revenue growth with new international standards incorporating new energy testing, likely to benefit from increased testing demand [19][21]

格隆汇10月9日丨艾可蓝(300816.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司近年来一直保持较高的研发投入比 率，其中很大一部分就是用于前瞻性的国六后期、国七以及非五等更高排放标准的技术研发，由于国七 标准尚未正式发布，公司针对国七排放标准，已陆续开展了多项预研和开发工作，一旦国七标准正式发 布并进入实施周期，公司凭借现有的技术储备和客户基础，有望从中受益。具体情况请关注公司公开披 露的信息。 ...

Group 1 - The National 7 emission standard, known as the "strictest environmental regulation in history," is currently under development and is expected to be released in 2027 and implemented in 2029 [2][11] - The National 7 standard will significantly impact both traditional and new energy vehicles, with major changes noted in the light-duty vehicle standards [3][4] - The standard aims to achieve six goals, including coordinated control of pollutants and greenhouse gases, enhanced real-world emission management, and the introduction of smart monitoring for vehicle emissions [4][6] Group 2 - The National 7 standard introduces stricter testing requirements compared to the previous National 6 standard, including the inclusion of new energy vehicles in emission regulations [5][9] - Key changes in the National 7 standard include the introduction of a flexible limit system and fleet average emission control, as well as enhanced monitoring of evaporative emissions and non-tailpipe particulate matter [6][8] - The standard sets ambitious target values for 2030, aiming for significant reductions in pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from passenger and light commercial vehicles [7][10] Group 3 - The National 7 standard incorporates new testing requirements for hybrid vehicles, emphasizing the need for rigorous evaluation of their emissions performance [6][9] - The standard mandates real-time monitoring of new energy vehicle emissions through remote OBD data reporting and strengthens software anti-tampering requirements [9][10] - The weight of electric vehicle batteries, which can significantly impact particulate emissions from braking and tire wear, is also addressed in the context of the new standards [11]

Group 1 - The domestic internal combustion engine industry is expected to exceed 80 million units in production and over 2.9 billion kilowatts in total power by 2024, with a growth rate of over 10% in the first four months of this year, resulting in a total output value of approximately 600 billion yuan [4] - The National VI emission standards have been a focal point for the industry, with the National VII standards set to be completed by December 2026, aiming for a 50% reduction in VOC emissions for light vehicles and the introduction of a collaborative control mechanism [5][8] - The development of carbon-neutral fuels and efficient engines is gaining traction, with a consensus in the automotive industry that a diversified technological approach is necessary for low-carbon and zero-carbon development [6] Group 2 - The competition to improve engine thermal efficiency is becoming a trend in the industry, although it is not the only indicator of engine advancement, as overall vehicle fuel economy is influenced by various factors [11] - The development of hydrogen internal combustion engines is seen as a viable path to near-zero carbon emissions, with Delphi focusing on mid-pressure hydrogen injection technology for light vehicles and non-road machinery [18][20] - The low-altitude economy is emerging as a significant growth engine, with a market expected to grow rapidly, particularly in urban air mobility and logistics, where hybrid power systems are seen as a key solution to overcome electric vehicle limitations [21][24] Group 3 - The development of high-end V-type turbocharged direct injection engines by FAW Hongqi has reached international advanced levels, indicating significant progress in the domestic engine sector [28] - The industry is encouraged to adopt a global perspective in the development of engines and power systems, particularly in high-power and large-displacement engines, as part of China's strategy to expand its automotive market internationally [30]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Group Co., Ltd. (Yuchai) is committed to innovation and green development, showcasing its technological strength and determination to lead in the energy transition through the launch of five new energy products at the National Science Workers' Day event [2][3][18] Group 1: New Product Launch - Yuchai introduced five new energy power products covering various sectors including automotive, engineering machinery, shipping, and emerging low-altitude economy [3][5] - The YCK06H hydrogen range extender is the first commercial application of hydrogen range extender technology in China, achieving zero carbon emissions and designed for urban public transport and short-distance cargo vehicles [5] - The YCY30N gas range extender is tailored for medium and heavy-duty trucks, providing high power while significantly reducing fuel consumption and operational costs [5] - The YCK16LM methanol hybrid powertrain is designed for harsh mining conditions, featuring patented corrosion-resistant technology and a 45% reduction in fuel costs compared to diesel engines [5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Yuchai is actively preparing for the upcoming National VII emission standards, collaborating with national environmental authorities and OEMs to develop testing prototypes [9] - The company has conducted extensive research to predict potential emission limits and analyze the impact of various technological routes on total cost of ownership (TCO) for users [9] - Yuchai emphasizes a diversified fuel technology approach, exploring economic solutions in the commercial vehicle sector, including hybrid systems that combine traditional engines with new energy sources [9][10] Group 3: Commitment to Innovation - Yuchai views technological innovation as fundamental to its survival and development, maintaining high R&D investment and achieving significant recognition in the industry [13][18] - The company has become a leading brand in the hybrid commercial vehicle sector, transitioning from user hesitation to active collaboration, particularly in non-road and natural gas range extender fields [13][18] - Yuchai aims to become a world-class independent power system supplier, focusing on technological breakthroughs and accelerating the transformation of research outcomes [16][18]

2025年以来，重型车国七排放法规的制定按下了加速键。 据央视新闻报道，生态环境部大气环境司司长李天威在2月底新闻会上表示，要对标欧美先进法规，制定轻型车、重型车国七标准，实现排放控制技术与世 界先进水平接轨。推动重型货车"退四、治五、管六、推新"。 除了政策法规的影响，国内商用车新能源的市场需求也在逐渐提升。 每经记者 黄辛旭 每经编辑 孙磊 3月28日，在中国电动汽车百人会上，中国电动汽车百人会高级顾问马仿列表示，2024年新能源商用车国内销售量达到了56万辆。今年前两个月，新能源商 用车继续保持良好的增长势头，国内销量达到了7.9万辆，同比增长51%，渗透率达到了17%，而去年同期这个数字只有12%。 在政策和市场需求的双重影响下，不少动力解决方案公司正加速转型。日前，康明斯在其位于武汉的东亚研发中心发布了50个零碳行动项目，覆盖研发、技 术创新、生产运营减碳等多个领域。显示出这家企业在未来一段时间的战略方向，即通过多元的行动推进新能源化和智能化转型。 渐进式减排路线 统计数据显示，目前我国商用车保有量仅占汽车总保有量的12%，但其碳排放量占比超过55%。随着大气污染治理、节能减排工作进入深水区，国七标 ...