储能及氢能行业近况更新 20260303 摘要 地缘冲突推升气价带动欧洲电价上涨，叠加乌克兰供电稳定性诉求，户 储由光伏配套升级为能源安全必需品，预计 2026 年全球户储增速维持 20%-30%以上。 2026 年 4-5 月迎行业景气高点：中国 4 月出口退税下调叠加澳大利亚 5 月补贴退坡（23 亿->73 亿澳元总额），将共同催化短期抢装需求。 德业股份 1Q26 户储排产超 25 万台（同比数倍增长），工商储有望成 第二曲线实现翻倍增长；艾罗能源 2026 年收入目标 80 亿+，小型大储 框架协议贡献增量。 户储电芯供需偏紧，价格传导顺畅（0.42-0.45 元/Wh），鹏辉能源 2026 年储能业务有望贡献 12 亿利润，电芯涨价具备超额利润弹性。 氢能政策转向"非电消费"考核，第二批示范城市群补贴规模有望达数 百亿，补贴重心或向 180-200kW 大功率重卡及绿氢生产端倾斜。 绿色甲醇受航运减碳政策驱动，2026-2027 年随甲醇船投放进入产能 爆发期，单吨利润预期 1,500-2000 元，关注中国天楹、吉电股份。 燃料电池汽车预计 2028 年实现部分场景平价并放量，应用结构向重卡 转 ...

中金发布研报称，"十四五"期间，燃料电池汽车的推广进度不及预期，距离目标仍有差距，燃料电池行 业普遍面临增长乏力、盈利能力差、应收账款积压等问题。该行认为，尽管行业短期面临压力，但我国 氢能战略始终明确，期待新一轮支持政策出台，以及应用场景的不断拓展，燃料电池行业有望逐步突破 短期困境，远期具备较大发展潜力。 燃料电池汽车推广仍面临多重阻力：一是补贴退坡下成本劣势凸显，电车的替代挤压加剧;二是近年来 加氢站建设速度不及预期，加氢便利性问题难以解决，且加氢站建设的高成本导致投资动力不足;三是 补贴资金发放周期长，应收账款积压将对公司经营产生压力，可能限制燃料电池厂商研发与扩张能力。 氢能战略坚定，新场景涌现，看好长足发展 尽管短期承压，但我国将氢能定位为未来国家能源体系的组成部分，氢能是实现非电领域碳中和的重要 方式。政策层面，多地氢能产业规划持续推进，高速费减免、"氢走廊"建设等支持政策接连跟进;应用 层面，燃料电池应用正从交通向发电、储能、轨交等多领域渗透，该行认为，第二增长曲线可期，支撑 行业中长期发展。 风险 政策落地不及预期、燃料电池及氢能降本不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 中金主要观点如下： 4Q25燃料 ...

Group 1 - The overall operation of China's automotive industry remained stable in January, with a decline in the passenger car market and a positive trend in the commercial vehicle market, while the new energy vehicle market operated steadily [1] - In January, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million units, respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year-on-year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year-on-year, and month-on-month declines of 25.7% and 28.3% [1] - The decline in overall vehicle sales in January was attributed to three main factors: the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy, the transition of local car purchase subsidy policies, and the early release of some consumer demand in 2025 [1] Group 2 - In the passenger car market, production and sales were 2.062 million and 1.988 million units, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 4.1% and 6.8%, and month-on-month declines of 28.4% and 30.2% [1] - Sales of Chinese brand passenger cars reached 1.329 million units, down 8.9% year-on-year, maintaining a market share of 66.9% [1] - The commercial vehicle market continued to show positive trends, with production and sales of 388,000 and 359,000 units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29.9% and 23.5%, and month-on-month declines of 6.8% and 15.6% [1] Group 3 - The new energy vehicle market remained stable, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 0.1%, and accounting for 40.3% of total new car sales [2] - Among the main types of new energy vehicles, production and sales of all three categories showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous month; however, compared to the same period in 2025, production and sales of pure electric vehicles saw slight growth, while plug-in hybrid vehicles experienced minor production increases and sales declines [2]

中化新网讯近日，从北京市经济和信息化局传来消息，截至2025年12月31日，京津冀燃料电池汽车示范 城市群(以下简称京津冀城市群)率先按时、全面且超额完成首轮示范任务，并在构建氢能产业体系和推 动京津冀氢能产业协同等方面取得了显著成效。 京津冀城市群提前完成关键零部件电堆、膜电极、双极板、质子交换膜、催化剂、空气压缩机、氢气循 环系统的技术创新和自主化应用，填补了碳纸国内自主应用空白，在大兴形成了国内领先的全产业链体 系。超额完成车辆推广与里程考核要求，示范任务内累计推广燃料电池汽车5322辆，其中北京示范任务 内推广3688辆，车辆使用效率在全国位居前列，单车平均用氢行驶里程超4万公里。累计建成加氢站50 座，营造了国内领先的燃料电池汽车用氢环境。累计出台实施政策83项，率先构建了涵盖顶层设计、技 术创新、产业落地、推广应用、氢能保障、安全监管等层面的全维度政策支撑体系。 示范期内，京津冀区域聚焦场景、应用、能源、产业等方面协同发力，合力形成并落地5条单程 200~300公里的跨省市氢能廊道，服务于家具、商品车、矿建材料、焦炭等物资运输；建设了全国首个 超600公里的"北京—天津—青岛"氢能商业化长途干线物 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the promotion of fuel cell vehicles has not met expectations, with significant gaps remaining to achieve targets. The fuel cell industry is facing challenges such as weak growth, poor profitability, and accounts receivable backlog. However, the industry is expected to gradually overcome short-term difficulties and has substantial long-term growth potential due to a clear hydrogen energy strategy and anticipated new support policies [1][3]. Group 2 - In Q4 2025, a rush to install fuel cell vehicles is expected, but there remains a gap to the 2025 phased target. Since 2024, the sales momentum for fuel cell vehicles has been insufficient, influenced by the policy window period. The average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, posing significant challenges to profitability, and the industry is still in a bottoming phase [1][2]. Group 3 - The promotion of fuel cell vehicles faces multiple constraints: first, the decline in subsidies has highlighted cost disadvantages, intensifying competition from electric vehicles; second, the construction speed of hydrogen refueling stations has not met expectations, making refueling convenience a challenge, and the high costs of building these stations have reduced investment motivation; third, the long cycle of subsidy fund disbursement has led to accounts receivable backlog, which may pressure company operations and limit the R&D and expansion capabilities of fuel cell manufacturers [2]. Group 4 - Despite short-term pressures, the country has positioned hydrogen energy as a key component of its future energy system, viewing it as an important means to achieve carbon neutrality in non-electric sectors. On the policy front, various local hydrogen industry plans are being advanced, with support policies such as toll fee reductions and the construction of "hydrogen corridors" being implemented. In terms of application, the use of fuel cells is expanding from transportation to multiple fields such as power generation, energy storage, and rail transit, indicating a potential second growth curve that supports the industry's medium to long-term development [3].

Core Insights - The press conference highlighted the achievements of Guangdong's modern industrial system construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, showcasing significant advancements in various sectors. Group 1: Industrial Development - Guangdong's new industrialization has progressed significantly, with the AI core industry expected to reach a scale of 300 billion yuan by 2025, and the production of industrial and service robots ranking first in the country [1] - The province produced over 6.9 million civilian drones last year, maintaining its position as the national leader [2] - Guangdong's manufacturing sector includes 44 industrial products with over 10% national market share, 23 products with over 20%, and 11 products with over 30% [2] Group 2: Service Sector Growth - The quality and efficiency of the service industry have improved, with new business models like home services and fresh e-commerce emerging, leading to a projected 9.6 billion tourists and 1.24 trillion yuan in tourism revenue by 2025 [3] - The province has seen a significant increase in the number of listed companies, with over 220 new listings, bringing the total to 1,224 and a total market value of 30.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.6 trillion yuan [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Innovation - By the end of 2025, Guangdong's high-speed rail operating mileage is expected to reach 3,411 kilometers, a 65.2% increase from 2020 [3] - The province has established six national manufacturing innovation centers and 28 key manufacturing pilot platforms, leading the nation in both categories [4] - R&D investment in Guangdong is projected to rise from 347.99 billion yuan in 2020 to 535 billion yuan by 2025, with R&D intensity increasing from 3.14% to 3.6% [4] Group 4: Agricultural and Consumer Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Guangdong is expected to reach 979.87 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [6] - The province's consumer goods replacement program achieved sales of 264.2 billion yuan, accounting for 10% of the national total, benefiting 61 million people [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to grow by 44% year-on-year in 2025, with the construction of zero-carbon parks accelerating hydrogen demand [2][19]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to promoting green hydrogen development and applications, with a focus on establishing zero-carbon factories in key industries by 2027 [19][30]. - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase in the scale of electrolyzer projects by 156% in 2025, indicating a robust demand for green hydrogen [26][30]. Market Performance - As of January 30, the environmental sector has underperformed the broader market, declining by 2.78%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [3][11]. - The report notes that various sub-sectors within the environmental industry have shown mixed performance, with water management and waste treatment sectors experiencing declines [14][17]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, along with other departments, has issued guidelines for the management of ecological industrial parks, emphasizing low-carbon and high-quality development [3][31]. - Recent policies aim to establish a water-saving management system for industrial enterprises, encouraging the installation of online measurement facilities for water usage [33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, along with resource recycling, are likely to maintain high levels of prosperity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [47]. - Key investment recommendations include companies such as Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co [47].

（来源：劳动午报） 转自：劳动午报 本报讯（记者 刘欣欣）记者从北京市经信局了解到，截至2025年12月31日，在北京市经济和信息化局 的统筹协调下，京津冀燃料电池汽车示范城市群（以下简称京津冀城市群）率先按时、全面且超额完成 首轮示范任务，并在构建氢能产业体系和推动京津冀氢能产业协同等方面取得了显著成效。 2020年9月，财政部、工业和信息化部、科技部、发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布《关于开展燃料电 池汽车示范应用的通知》，以推动燃料电池汽车示范为先导带动绿色氢能全产业链的商业化。2020年11 月，北京市大兴区牵头，联合海淀区、房山区、顺义区、昌平区、延庆区、北京经济技术开发区、天津 市滨海新区、河北省唐山市和保定市、山东省淄博市和滨州市等12个城市组建京津冀城市群，得到国家 正式批复后，于2021年8月13日正式启动建设。 京津冀城市群提前完成关键零部件电堆、膜电极、双极板、质子交换膜、催化剂、空气压缩机、氢气循 环系统的技术创新和自主化应用，填补了碳纸国内自主应用空白，在大兴形成了国内领先的全产业链体 系。超额完成车辆推广与里程考核要求，示范任务内累计推广燃料电池汽车5322辆，其中北京示范任务 内推 ...

示范城市群超额完成车辆推广与里程考核要求，示范任务内累计推广燃料电池汽车5322辆，累计建成加 氢站50座，营造了国内领先的燃料电池汽车用氢环境。累计出台实施政策83项，率先构建了涵盖顶层设 计、技术创新、产业落地、推广应用、氢能保障、安全监管等层面的全维度政策支撑体系。 （文章来源：人民日报） 本报北京1月28日电记者日前从北京市经济和信息化局了解到：截至2025年12月31日，京津冀燃料电池 汽车示范城市群完成首轮示范任务。 据介绍，示范城市群提前完成关键零部件电堆、膜电极、双极板等技术创新和自主化应用，填补了碳纸 国内自主应用空白，在北京市大兴区形成了国内领先的全产业链体系。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy storage and hydrogen energy industry in China, highlighting the acceleration of energy storage projects through pricing mechanisms and policy adjustments, particularly in capacity electricity fees [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The global electrochemical energy storage project bidding volume is expected to add nearly 1.5 TWh by 2025, with Asia accounting for 75% and China nearly half of that total [1][3]. - The core drivers for the 2025 energy storage market include the increasing share of wind and solar power generation and the deepening of electricity market reforms, drawing lessons from developed markets like the US and Europe [2][5]. - The capacity electricity fee policy is highly anticipated, as it will provide better guidance for investors in the context of a new power system with a higher proportion of renewable energy [5]. Growth Trends - By 2025, the energy storage market is projected to see significant growth, with a focus on large-capacity, long-life battery cells and advanced Power Conversion Systems (PCS) [3][6]. - The green hydrogen economic tipping point is approaching, with costs expected to decrease due to improved efficiency in hydrogen production and the implementation of green electricity direct connection policies [12][13]. R&D Trends and Competitive Landscape - Energy storage product development is focused on two levels: battery cells and PCS, with advancements aimed at increasing capacity and efficiency [6][7]. - The international trade environment is becoming increasingly complex, leading domestic energy storage companies to expand overseas to optimize profit structures amid intense domestic competition [8][9]. Policy Expectations - The capacity electricity fee policy is expected to be beneficial for energy storage, as it addresses the pricing challenges in a market with a growing share of renewable energy [5]. Hydrogen Energy Development - Hydrogen energy is still in the early stages of commercialization but is seen as a crucial method for decarbonizing non-electric sectors [12]. - The demand for green hydrogen is driven by strict decarbonization requirements in the shipping industry, with significant policies being implemented by the EU and the International Maritime Organization [14][15]. Companies to Watch - Key players in the green methanol production sector include China Tianying and Jidian Co., which have secured long-term agreements with major shipping companies, ensuring sales certainty and long-term profits [17]. - In the fuel cell vehicle sector, companies like Reformed Energy and Yihuatong are leading, with market shares exceeding 20%, benefiting from new subsidies and cost reductions [19]. Conclusion - The energy storage and hydrogen energy sectors are poised for significant growth driven by policy support, technological advancements, and increasing demand for renewable energy solutions. Companies that can navigate the competitive landscape and leverage international opportunities are likely to thrive in this evolving market [8][9][10].