Gold Market - Last week, gold saw a significant rebound with a maximum weekly increase of nearly 3%, indicating a positive trend [1] - The rise in gold prices is a direct response to Trump's tariff policies, which have heightened global trade risks and increased safe-haven demand [1] - Trump's deadline for reaching tariff agreements with various countries has been postponed to August 1, with strong resistance from EU leaders, suggesting potential backlash [1] - Although tariffs have temporarily boosted U.S. tariff revenues, they may lead to greater long-term issues, including a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, which has been shrinking for four consecutive months [1] - Analysts predict that Trump's tax cuts will increase the deficit by trillions, while tariffs may raise inflation expectations, potentially driving more funds into the gold market [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish continuation pattern, with prices above the moving average system and strong upward momentum [1] Oil Market - Last week, oil prices experienced a volatile upward trend, although the overall performance remained weak [2] - Seasonal demand has provided some short-term support for oil prices, with U.S. refinery utilization rates reaching 94.7% as of July 4, indicating increased processing to meet summer travel needs [2] - Despite short-term demand increases, the long-term outlook for oil prices remains challenged by a persistent oversupply, with global oil supply expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, while demand is only projected to grow by 700,000 barrels per day [2] - For next year, global oil demand growth is forecasted at 720,000 barrels per day, while supply growth is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day, indicating a continued oversupply issue [2] - Technically, oil has formed a bullish pattern, with prices above long-term moving averages and potential for new highs in the short term [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines and increases, likely adjusting from previous gains [3] - The hourly chart indicates a converging pattern, suggesting the potential formation of a symmetrical triangle, with a likelihood of new highs in the short term [3] - Support is noted at the $5.45 level for copper prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global oil prices, highlighting the volatility and potential supply disruptions that could arise from the situation, particularly concerning Iran and the Strait of Hormuz [2][3][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures opened on June 16 with a rise of over 7%, reaching $78.32 per barrel, but later fell to $73.3 per barrel, a decrease of 1.2% [2]. - WTI crude oil futures also saw a decline of 1.4%, settling at $71.8 per barrel [2]. - Analysts indicate that the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation could lead to significant price increases if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, with the probability of extreme price spikes rising [2][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Concerns - Iran accounts for 4% of global seaborne oil exports and has a production capacity of approximately 4.4 million barrels per day [3]. - Current Iranian oil exports are around 1.5 million barrels per day, primarily to China, showing a recovery from lower levels seen between 2019 and 2022 [3]. - Analysts express concerns that if conflicts escalate to affect oil infrastructure, Iranian oil exports could face interruptions, significantly impacting global oil supply [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Traders are beginning to hedge against potential oil price surges, with significant buying of out-of-the-money call options, particularly for WTI crude oil to reach $85 per barrel by June 25 [4]. - Morgan Stanley analysts have doubled the probability of oil prices spiking to $120-$130 per barrel if Iranian oil supply is disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz is closed [4]. - Some analysts believe that the risk of Iranian supply disruptions is manageable, citing historical precedents where geopolitical tensions had temporary effects on oil prices [5][6]. Group 4: OPEC+ and Global Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ has initiated production increases, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July, which could mitigate supply concerns [5][6]. - The market is currently oversupplied, and with OPEC+ having around 5 million barrels per day of unused capacity, there is less immediate concern about supply shocks [6]. - Analysts suggest that the oil price may stabilize between $70 and $100 per barrel in the short term, depending on demand and OPEC+ production strategies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Alibaba's financial results, highlighting a slight miss in revenue expectations while showing strong growth in net profit and shareholder returns. Additionally, it covers the broader market context, including U.S. stock index declines and economic indicators. Financial Performance of Alibaba - Alibaba's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was 236.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below the market expectation of 237.91 billion RMB [2][3] - Adjusted net profit reached 29.85 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%, surpassing the forecast of 29.39 billion RMB [2][3] - The company announced a dividend distribution of 460 million USD (approximately 3.31 billion RMB) to enhance shareholder returns [3] - Alibaba's share buyback program for the fiscal year 2025 involved repurchasing 11.97 million shares for 1.19 billion USD, marking it as one of the most aggressive buyback programs among Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [3] Market Context - On May 15, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down by 116.16 points (-0.28%), Nasdaq down by 132.45 points (-0.69%), and S&P 500 down by 15.32 points (-0.26%) [2] - International oil prices fell, with NYMEX WTI crude down by 2.6% to 61.51 USD per barrel, and ICE Brent crude down by 2.54% to 64.41 USD per barrel [5] - Recent economic data indicated that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 229,000, slightly above expectations, while April retail sales showed a marginal increase of 0.1% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the crude oil industry as "Continue to decline" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of crude oil is high due to the accelerated production increase of OPEC+ and the high - level US crude oil production, while the demand side is facing problems such as the decline of consumer confidence and the downward adjustment of demand growth expectations by major institutions. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production - cut plan in April and increased the daily crude oil supply in May to 411,000 barrels. There are doubts about whether some countries can implement compensatory production cuts. OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and may further accelerate production increase in July. If the quota compliance does not improve, OPEC+ plans to gradually cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by October. The US crude oil production is still near the historical high, and other non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing production capacity [1] - The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the negotiation between the US and the EU on tariffs is still far from reaching an agreement. The US consumer confidence index in April fell to the lowest level since the COVID - 19 pandemic. Major crude oil institutions have lowered the global crude oil demand growth expectations. May is the off - season for global crude oil consumption. It is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions as the crude oil price has fallen near the previous low and the US has imposed new sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2506 fell 3.69% to 458.9 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 455.0 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 460.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 767 to 23,637 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 400,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day, and in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day. It also lowered the US crude oil production in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day to 13.51 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and in 2026 by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.28 million barrels per day. IEA lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day [3] - As of the week ending April 25, US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.696 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.003 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 937,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 682,000 barrels. The overall oil product inventories continued to decrease [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - OPEC's crude oil production in February was revised down by 6,000 barrels per day to 26.854 million barrels per day, and in March 2025, it decreased by 78,000 barrels per day to 26.776 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production cuts in Iraq and Nigeria. The US crude oil production in the week ending April 25 increased by 500 barrels per day to 13.465 million barrels per day, down 166,000 barrels per day from the historical high in early December last year [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.658 million barrels per day, 1.04% lower than the same period last year. The weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 3.36% to 9.098 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 3.16% compared with the same period last year. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 9.04% to 3.55 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 10.34% compared with the same period last year. The decrease in both gasoline and diesel demand led to an 8.24% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]