Core Viewpoint - China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661) anticipates a revenue of approximately RMB 29.306 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 10.72% [1] - The company expects a gross profit of approximately RMB 514 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 37.47% [1] - A net loss of approximately RMB 6 million is projected for the period, contrasting with a profit of approximately RMB 148 million in 2024 [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The expected revenue decline is attributed to a combination of accelerated release of domestic and international smelting capacity and tight supply of copper concentrate [1] - The sustained low level of smelting processing fees and reduced product output have contributed to the decrease in revenue and narrowed profit margins [1] Financial Performance Outlook - The board of directors indicates that the anticipated net loss for the first half of 2025 is primarily due to the reduction in gross profit [1] - The significant drop in gross profit reflects the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [1]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have been influenced by a weakening US dollar and inventory depletion in non-US regions, alongside domestic sentiment regarding "anti-involution" [2] - The US has announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines, and negotiations with the EU have eased, reducing uncertainty around tariffs [2] - The "anti-involution" sentiment has led to optimism in the industrial sector, but the actual impact on copper prices has been limited due to low domestic copper inventory and concerns over US import tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic smelting enterprises are facing challenges due to low processing fees, but strong performance in by-products like sulfuric acid and gold has provided some profit support [6] - The tightening supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist, with major mining companies reporting mixed production outcomes [4][6] - The upcoming increase in US import tariffs on copper, potentially rising from 25% to 50%, is expected to alter global copper trade dynamics, leading to increased inventories in non-US regions [8][10] Group 3 - The copper market is currently experiencing a demand lull, which is limiting upward price momentum despite low social inventory levels [10] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly upgraded its global economic growth forecasts, which may support copper demand in the near term [10] - The market is closely monitoring the August 1 deadline for US tariffs, which could lead to increased volatility in copper prices if implemented as scheduled [10]