中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国通胀和消费者信心数据支持降息，中国央行连续 13 个月增持黄金，地缘交易编 | | | 长线持有 | 辑减少，黄金价格维持高位，市场等待的美联储议息会议。黄金中长期地缘秩序重 | | ★ | | 塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银交易交割逼仓以及低库存，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货高升 | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 水、白银期货波动率飙升，短期不宜追高。长线供给有缺口，全球经济刺激、流动 性维持宽松，做多逻辑不变 | | | | 超级宏观周来临，美联储议息会议和国内政治局会议在即，基本面上 LME 铜注销仓 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 单骤增，海外挤仓担忧加剧，国内淡季去库，非美铜库存或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜 | | ★ | | 续创新高，高位波动放大，多单移动止盈，中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 超级宏观周来临，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国 | | ★ | ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market has experienced a significant price increase, driven by tight supply of copper concentrate, rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Price Movement - From September 24 to October 30, the main copper contract rose nearly 12%, surpassing 89,000 yuan/ton, reaching a historical high [1]. - Following a hawkish stance from Powell and increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts, copper prices have fluctuated between 85,000 and 88,000 yuan/ton since November [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The US government faced a historic shutdown due to the failure to pass the 2026 fiscal budget, delaying the release of key labor market data [2]. - The Federal Reserve implemented a "blind cut" in October without supporting data, and subsequent hawkish comments from Powell diminished expectations for a December rate cut [2][3]. - The end of the government shutdown in mid-November allowed the Labor Statistics Bureau to report a significant increase in September's non-farm employment, but the October report was not released, leading to uncertainty about the Fed's December decisions [2][3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tight supply of copper concentrate has worsened this year, with the treatment charge (TC) dropping from around $6 per dry ton at the beginning of the year to approximately -$42 per dry ton [4]. - Several mines have faced production disruptions, including a 25% year-on-year decline in output from Chile's Codelco and significant impacts from natural disasters and social unrest in Indonesia and Peru [4]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened, currently running between 7,500 and 8,500 yuan/ton, which has suppressed demand for refined copper products [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The probability of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains high, contributing to a more relaxed global liquidity environment [5]. - The ongoing tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist, potentially leading to coordinated production cuts by smelters to pressure mines to increase TC [5]. - While demand has weakened this year, the energy storage sector in 2026 is anticipated to boost demand for refined copper, suggesting a future supply-demand imbalance may widen [5].

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent copper price surge includes tight copper concentrate supply, rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [1] - From September 24 to October 30, the main copper futures contract increased by nearly 12%, breaking through the 89,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching a historical high [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and internal disagreements regarding rate cuts in December, copper prices have been fluctuating between 85,000 and 88,000 yuan/ton [1][2] Group 2 - The US government faced a historic shutdown due to the failure to pass the 2026 fiscal budget, delaying the release of key labor market data [2] - The Federal Reserve implemented a rate cut without data support, leading to uncertainty about future rate cuts, which contributed to copper price volatility [2] - After the government shutdown ended, significant labor market data was released, but the Federal Reserve's stance on December rate cuts remained cautious [2] Group 3 - The copper concentrate supply tightness has worsened this year, with the treatment charge (TC) dropping from around $6 per dry ton at the beginning of the year to approximately -$42 per dry ton [4] - Several mining disruptions have occurred, including a 25% year-on-year production drop at Chile's Codelco and a complete shutdown at Indonesia's Grasberg mine due to landslides [4] - The Chinese Copper Smelters' Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has called for domestic smelters to reduce production in response to low processing fees [4] Group 4 - Since August, the price spread between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened, currently operating in the range of 7,500 to 8,500 yuan/ton, which has suppressed the demand for refined copper [5] - The utilization rates of downstream products such as copper pipes, rods, and foils are running weak, with real estate adjustments contributing to a marginal decline in refined copper demand [5] - Despite the weak demand outlook for the year, the energy storage sector in 2026 is expected to boost refined copper demand [5]

沪铜周报 宏观压制叠加淡季累库，铜承压回落 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-11-21 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 观点摘要 【观点总结】 整体而言，宏观情绪转冷，市场提前计价美联储12月不降息，美元走强压制铜价， 叠加海内外库存累库，铜短期承压偏弱运行，测试下方8万5重要心理关口支撑。短期建议等待止 跌企稳，右侧逢低布局，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张 和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，对铜依旧长期看好。 【策略展望】 策略：新入场投机等待止跌企稳，右侧布局，可背靠84500-85000逢低试多，止损83000 前期的中长期战略多单可买入铜看跌期权对冲持仓风险 产业卖出套保根据现货库存，反弹布局卖出套保，倒金字塔建仓，对冲库存跌价风险 产业买入套保可等待时机，现货适量刚需采购，中长期等待价格回调逢低建仓，锁定原材 料成本 短期沪铜关注区间【84000，88000】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【10400，11000】美元/吨 风险关注：中美关系，铜矿干扰，需求不足 2 海外宏观 美国11月15日当周首次申请失业救济人数22万人， ...

Group 1: Copper Price Movement - On September 25, the main copper contract in Shanghai surged approximately 3.5%, nearing 83,000 yuan/ton, marking the highest point since June 2024 [1] - The current price of domestic 1 electrolytic copper is reported at 82,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% from the previous period [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Impact - The mudslide incident at Freeport Indonesia's Grasberg mine has led to a suspension of operations, with an estimated 800,000 tons of wet material affecting multiple operational layers [3] - The company anticipates a 4% year-on-year decline in copper sales and a 6% decline in gold sales for Q3, with a potential 35% reduction in projected production for FY2026 [3] - The incident is expected to tighten raw material supply, potentially impacting domestic refined copper output [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the copper market has been constrained by rapid expansion in smelting capacity and ongoing disruptions in the copper concentrate market [3] - The domestic refined copper output is projected to reach 13.62 million tons by 2025, with nearly 3 million tons of new capacity expected from 2024 to 2026 [3] - The anticipated tightness in raw material supply may further support copper prices, with expectations for spot copper prices to remain in the range of 82,500 to 84,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - The recent price surge has led to increased pressure on traders and copper processing companies, with some facing margin call challenges [6] - The upcoming National Day holiday may affect downstream operations and stocking demands, potentially leading to an increase in copper inventory levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661) anticipates a revenue of approximately RMB 29.306 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 10.72% [1] - The company expects a gross profit of approximately RMB 514 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 37.47% [1] - A net loss of approximately RMB 6 million is projected for the period, contrasting with a profit of approximately RMB 148 million in 2024 [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The expected revenue decline is attributed to a combination of accelerated release of domestic and international smelting capacity and tight supply of copper concentrate [1] - The sustained low level of smelting processing fees and reduced product output have contributed to the decrease in revenue and narrowed profit margins [1] Financial Performance Outlook - The board of directors indicates that the anticipated net loss for the first half of 2025 is primarily due to the reduction in gross profit [1] - The significant drop in gross profit reflects the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [1]

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have been influenced by a weakening US dollar and inventory depletion in non-US regions, alongside domestic sentiment regarding "anti-involution" [2] - The US has announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines, and negotiations with the EU have eased, reducing uncertainty around tariffs [2] - The "anti-involution" sentiment has led to optimism in the industrial sector, but the actual impact on copper prices has been limited due to low domestic copper inventory and concerns over US import tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic smelting enterprises are facing challenges due to low processing fees, but strong performance in by-products like sulfuric acid and gold has provided some profit support [6] - The tightening supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist, with major mining companies reporting mixed production outcomes [4][6] - The upcoming increase in US import tariffs on copper, potentially rising from 25% to 50%, is expected to alter global copper trade dynamics, leading to increased inventories in non-US regions [8][10] Group 3 - The copper market is currently experiencing a demand lull, which is limiting upward price momentum despite low social inventory levels [10] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly upgraded its global economic growth forecasts, which may support copper demand in the near term [10] - The market is closely monitoring the August 1 deadline for US tariffs, which could lead to increased volatility in copper prices if implemented as scheduled [10]