ASHP在一份披露报告中指出，由于这种抗病毒药物突然间出现短缺，负责监测药品供应的ASHP目前 正在紧急评估短缺程度，并补充称历年来流感活动非常频繁的寒冷地区正面临最为严重的供应稀缺。 ASHP药学实践与质量高级总监Michael Ganio在一份声明中表示，由于目前正在全球范围流行的一种比 往年流感更加严重的流感毒株，短缺扩散"只是时间问题"。 不过，总部位于美国的连锁药房运营龙头CVS Health(CVS.US)表示，尽管其门店对磷酸奥司他韦的需求 持续激增，但并不存在全美范围的广泛短缺，某些常年流感严重的地区短缺比其他地区严重得多。其多 年来最强劲的竞争对手Walgreens去年被纽约私募股权公司Sycamore Partners全面私有化，该药房运营商 则表示，其药房的全美网络总体上"需求很高，库存极度紧张"。 智通财经APP获悉，根据美国卫生系统药剂师协会(简称ASHP)周三发布的一项重磅统计数据，随着美 国因流感样症状就诊的医院门诊量达到二十多年来的最高水平，流感特效药物达菲(Tamiflu，也被称作 磷酸奥司他韦)目前在美国多个地区处于极度短缺状态。 不止美国，在全球范围，尤其是面临寒冬的地区 ...

我猜中了开头，可是我猜不着这结局。 ——紫霞仙子，《大话西游》 都说人生如戏，可资本市场这出戏，有时候连编剧都不敢这么写。 紫霞仙子那句"我猜中了开头，可是我猜不着这结局"，放在2025年的医疗健康行业，竟成了不少企业和 投资者的真实写照。 （一） 多年前，一群媒体大咖走进诺辉健康的杭州总部，老朱在PPT上放出美国精确科学（Exact Sciences）一 路上扬的股价K线图，"我们要做中国版的Exact Sciences！" 话音犹在耳畔，可2025年的结局却让人唏嘘：精确科学被雅培高价收购，诺辉健康却因财务造假黯然退 市，老朱也早早地"下课"了。 你说讽刺不讽刺？曾经被誉为"癌症早筛第一股"的明星企业，上市不到四年时间就从神坛跌进泥潭。更 绝的是，退市队伍里还不孤单——江苏吴中等一批公司排队跟上，造假手法如出一辙：虚增收入、虚构 利润。 好在监管这次没手软，"造假即退市，退市必追责"成了常态。这也好，市场从来不怕洗牌，怕的是洗不 干净。劣币出清，良币才有空间。只是苦了那些当年冲着"中国版神话"冲进去的投资者。 这结局？没猜到吧。 （二） 紧接着，股价崩盘。神话镀金的外壳，在财报数字面前碎得干干净净。说到底 ...

文/陈岩鹏 我猜中了开头，可是我猜不着这结局。 ——紫霞仙子，《大话西游》 都说人生如戏，可资本市场这出戏，有时候连编剧都不敢这么写。 紫霞仙子那句"我猜中了开头，可是我猜不着这结局"，放在2025年的医疗健康行业，竟成了不少企业和 投资者的真实写照。 话音犹在耳畔，可2025年的结局却让人唏嘘：精确科学被雅培高价收购，诺辉健康却因财务造假黯然退 市，老朱也早早地"下课"了。 你说讽刺不讽刺？曾经被誉为"癌症早筛第一股"的明星企业，上市不到四年时间就从神坛跌进泥潭。更 绝的是，退市队伍里还不孤单——江苏吴中等一批公司排队跟上，造假手法如出一辙：虚增收入、虚构 利润。 好在监管这次没手软，"造假即退市，退市必追责"成了常态。这也好，市场从来不怕洗牌，怕的是洗不 干净。劣币出清，良币才有空间。只是苦了那些当年冲着"中国版神话"冲进去的投资者。 这结局？没猜到吧。 （二） 司美格鲁肽曾经是什么？是资本市场的"许愿池"，是诺和诺德的股价永动机。分析师们把它捧成解决人 类肥胖问题的终极答案，仿佛一针下去，脂肪变黄金。 可惜，神坛的台阶果然是滑的。2025年末到2026年初，价格战率先开打——曾经卖成奢侈品的减肥针， 在 ...

中药板块医药商业有望拐点，低估值、高股息吸引大 20260106 摘要 中药板块 2025 年受中成药集采续约和院外市场疲软影响业绩不佳，但 库存去化逐步完成，预计 2026 年将有所提升。以岭和特一等公司去库 存较早，而太极、葵花等公司压力较大。 基本药物目录（GML）对中药板块有显著提升作用，新版 GML 的发布 将带来增长机会。中成药集采对独家品种保护力度较大，降幅相对较小， 且原材料成本下降将在 26 年度报表中体现。 华润系公司如三九，其十五规划目标通常定在行业较高水平，且历史规 划完成情况良好，发展前景值得关注。佐力医业收购未来医业优质资产， 并胜诉百令胶囊仿制药诉讼，预计 26 年度利润将显著增长。 佐力制药预计 2025 年归母净利润约为 6.5 亿元，2026 年约为 9.1 亿 元，目前估值仅 13 倍左右，公司股息率接近 4.5%。三九医药受益于政 策利好，业绩稳健且估值便宜，具有吸引力。 方盛制药养血祛风成功纳入医保谈判目录，管线梯队完善且集采影响已 基本消化，预计 2025 年业绩约为 3.1 亿元，2026 年接近 3.7 亿元， 对应估值较低，且近期进行了特别分红。 Q&A 20 ...

大参林 20251225 摘要 大森林预计 2025 年第四季度业绩乐观，短期因素可对冲行业增速下滑 影响，但需关注 2025 年 11 月至 2026 年 1 月可能受到的盛行影响。 大森林主动转型，关闭 400 多家低效门店，从规模竞争转向质量优先， 通过供应链、数字化和精细化运营抢占市场份额，并保持华南地区基本 盘稳定。 大森林向轻资产加盟模式转型，截至 2025 年三季度末门店总数达 17,385 家，其中加盟店 7,000 多家，提高扩张效率和单店盈利能力。 大森林 ROE 显著高于行业平均水平，资本运用效率和盈利质量领先，通 过直营式加盟扩张、高效运营和强劲现金流实现高质量增长闭环。 顺德智慧物流中心启用，实现 24 小时覆盖珠三角、72 小时通达全国的 高效配送网络，有助于费用控制和利润提升。 政府放开非药品类销售限制，连锁药房可销售所有非药品类商品，提高 门店面积利用效率，有助于整体行业规模快速增长。 大森林自主开发东城阿胶、可可康等参茸滋补品，自由品牌超 1,000 个， 通过向上游延伸产业链改善利润端，并以慢病管理服务为核心建立客户 体系。 Q&A 大森林在行业深度调整期内如何展现出卓越的 ...

华夏时报记者 于娜 北京报道 七年扩张狂欢成旧梦，国内连锁药房行业在2025年骤然陷入深度调整的"寒冬"，正式迈入负增长周期。 2025年一季度全国药店总量跌破70万家大关，单季净减约3000家，这一"关店潮"在后续季度持续蔓延， 中小连锁加速被市场出清，行业整合的大幕已然全面拉开。 这场行业变局的背后，是市场供需的深刻重构。2024年全国药品全终端市场规模虽达2.03万亿元，但同 比增幅仅0.9%，增速近乎停滞；2025年更迎来首次"掉头向下"，预测全终端销售规模将滑落至1.97万亿 元。 以往业绩令人艳羡的连锁药房巨头们，如今也是"冰火两重天"。2025年三季报数据显示，大参林 （603233）表现亮眼，前三季度归母净利润10.81亿元，同比劲增25.97%；益丰药房（603939）稳步前 行，归母净利润12.25亿元，同比增长10.27%；而一心堂（002727）则持续承压，归母净利润2.69亿元 同比下滑8.17%，行业结构性调整的特征愈发凸显。 业内预测，2025年全年，国内药房关店数可能达到5万—10万家。寒冬之下，行业正加速告别"跑马圈 地"的规模扩张时代，转向"精耕细作"的价值提升之路，一场从 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者于娜 北京报道 七年扩张狂欢成旧梦，国内连锁药房行业在2025年骤然陷入深度调整的"寒冬"，正式迈入负增长周期。 2025年一季度全国药店总量跌破70万家大关，单季净减约3000家，这一"关店潮"在后续季度持续蔓延， 中小连锁加速被市场出清，行业整合的大幕已然全面拉开。 这场行业变局的背后，是市场供需的深刻重构。2024年全国药品全终端市场规模虽达2.03万亿元，但同 比增幅仅0.9%，增速近乎停滞；2025年更迎来首次"掉头向下"，预测全终端销售规模将滑落至1.97万亿 元。 以往业绩令人艳羡的连锁药房巨头们，如今也是"冰火两重天"。2025年三季报数据显示，大参林表现亮 眼，前三季度归母净利润10.81亿元，同比劲增25.97%；益丰药房稳步前行，归母净利润12.25亿元，同 比增长10.27%；而一心堂则持续承压，归母净利润2.69亿元同比下滑8.17%，行业结构性调整的特征愈 发凸显。 业内预测，2025年全年，国内药房关店数可能达到5万—10万家。寒冬之下，行业正加速告别"跑马圈 地"的规模扩张时代，转向"精耕细作"的价值提升之路，一场从"卖药品"到"卖 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The company has steadily developed into a leading chain pharmacy enterprise in China over the past 20 years, with a strong market presence in Central South, East China, and South China regions, and a total of over 14,666 stores by September 2025, serving 110 million members [3][4] - The retail pharmacy industry is undergoing a transformation from scale expansion to quality competition, with a market size of 929.3 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 6.5% year-on-year, but showing signs of slowing growth [3][46] - The company has shown slight revenue growth and strong profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with operating income of 17.286 billion yuan (up 0.4% year-on-year) and net profit of 1.225 billion yuan (up 10.3% year-on-year) [20][21] - The company is expected to maintain growth through refined operations and the development of a new retail system, with projected revenues of 24.546 billion yuan, 27.292 billion yuan, and 30.444 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 11.2%, and 11.5% respectively [3][20] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has expanded its operational regions and has a strong financing and acquisition capability, establishing itself as a leading chain pharmacy since its founding in 2001 [5] - The company has a clear shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder being Chairman Gao Yi, who holds 11.67% of the shares directly [8] Industry Status - The retail pharmacy market is experiencing a decline in growth rates, with the number of retail pharmacies decreasing from 706,000 in Q3 2024 to 699,000 in Q1 2025 due to industry slowdown and online competition [3][46] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration and chain rates, with larger chain enterprises likely to gain competitive advantages over smaller pharmacies [3][46] Operational Effectiveness - The company has implemented a "fleet-type" store network strategy, enhancing customer repurchase rates through a membership system and digitalization [3][29] - The company has issued convertible bonds to raise 1.797 billion yuan for projects aimed at improving operational efficiency and logistics capabilities [18] Performance Review - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with a gross margin of 40.4% and a net margin of 7.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [29] - The retail business remains the primary revenue source, while the franchise and distribution business has shown significant growth, with a 17.5% increase in revenue [32] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of prescription drug outflow, which is anticipated to provide new growth opportunities in the retail pharmacy market [57][62] - The company is focusing on expanding its new retail system, enhancing its O2O and B2C channels, and leveraging its large member base to drive sales [93]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable increase in net profit driven by improved marketing strategies and cost efficiency measures [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.068 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.081 billion, up 26.0% [1]. - For Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 6.546 billion, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 283 million, which is a 41.0% increase [1]. - The overall expense ratio has shown a downward trend, with the sales expense ratio at 21.8% (down 1.6 percentage points), management expense ratio at 4.4% (up 0.2 percentage points), financial expense ratio at 0.6% (down 0.2 percentage points), and R&D expense ratio remaining stable at 0.2% [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 34.8% (up 0.1 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 5.8% (up 1.2 percentage points) [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is establishing a leading position in the pharmaceutical retail industry during a phase of transformation characterized by consolidation and slower growth [3]. - The company is expanding its presence across China through a combination of self-built stores, franchises, and acquisitions, currently covering 21 provinces and cities [3]. - The company is expected to leverage its scale, operational capabilities, and specialized services to continue increasing market share and benefit from favorable competition and policy changes [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 27.205 billion, 30.071 billion, and 33.363 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.7%, 10.5%, and 11.0% respectively [3]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 1.208 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.798 billion, with growth rates of 32.0%, 23.0%, and 21.1% respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6, 14.3, and 11.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3].

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the integration of AI in financial research, transitioning from "universal models" to specialized AI agents, enhancing efficiency in tasks like financial modeling and policy analysis [8][9] - AI tools like AlphaEngine can quickly generate DCF models and analyze policy impacts, improving decision-making processes for investors [8][9] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report anticipates a positive interaction between macroeconomics and capital markets in 2026, driven by policy guidance and industrial upgrades, creating structural opportunities in technology and green economy sectors [10] - The capital market is expected to achieve a more balanced funding structure, with increased investments in public funds and insurance products, stabilizing market fluctuations [10][11] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance sector showed resilience with a 4% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, despite a slowdown due to external sales pressures [11][12] - White goods revenue reached 268.7 billion, growing 5% year-on-year, while small appliances saw a 6.3% increase in revenue [12][14] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies in the sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [12][14] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The report notes a 2.71% increase in the environmental index, with significant gains in the power generation sector, particularly in renewable energy [16] - The introduction of the "Ecological Environment Monitoring Regulations" is expected to enhance monitoring capabilities and support the growth of the environmental sector [16][17] Retail Industry - The retail sector is experiencing a low recovery phase, with a 4.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a mixed performance across different segments [19][20] - The report emphasizes the divergence in performance among individual stocks, with some regional chains showing improved operational efficiency [19][20] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is characterized by a stable total volume but structural differentiation, with a notable decline in the liquor segment due to inventory adjustments [22][23] - The report highlights the growth of snack foods and beverages, with specific brands showing significant revenue increases [22][23] Medical Industry - The medical sector is witnessing a marginal improvement in revenue and profit, with innovative drugs and the CXO sector showing strong growth [29][30] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued stocks in the medical device and pharmacy sectors, which are expected to benefit from market stabilization [31][32] Media and Internet - The media sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.56% increase, driven by the popularity of AI platforms like Pokee AI [34][35] - The report suggests continued optimism for the media sector, highlighting advancements in AI technology that enhance operational efficiency [34][35]