值得关注的是，居民消费领域，国家政策引领和地区体系协同两轮驱动，有效激发居民消费潜力， 提升消费物流活力。2025年前11个月，全国实物商品网上零售额11.8万亿元，增长5.7%，占社会消费品 零售总额的比重为25.9%。分行业来看，12月份铁路运输、多式联运领域、邮政快递业务总量指数均保 持在55%以上高景气区间，道路运输、水上运输和多式联运领域业务总量指数分别环比回升0.6个百分 点、1.7个百分点和0.4个百分点。 原标题：实体经济物流业务需求持续活跃 1月7日，中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2025年12月份中国物流业景气指数为52.4%，环比 回升1.5个百分点。从全年数据来看，四个季度景气指数均值稳定回升，第四季度后两个月连续回升， 12月份景气指数为2025年最高，反映出实体经济物流业务需求持续活跃。 中国物流信息中心主任刘宇航认为，从2025年全年数据看，物流业顶压前行，呈现季度稳步回升， 行业动能优化，经营韧性增长的运行格局。2025年中国物流业景气指数均值为50.8%，各季度均值分别 为50.2%、50.8%、50.9%和51.3%。行业物流总体向好、动能优化，大宗能源物流需求基础牢， ...

中国物流信息中心主任刘宇航认为，从2025年全年数据看，物流业顶压前行，呈现季度稳步回升，行业动能优化，经营韧 性增长的运行格局。2025年中国物流业景气指数均值为50.8%，各季度均值分别为50.2%、50.8%、50.9%和51.3%。行业物流总 体向好、动能优化，大宗能源物流需求基础牢，制造业物流新动能强，民生消费领域物流底盘稳。 物流经营内生动力较好，设备利用、资金周转和投资相关指数趋稳。2025年12月份，设备利用率指数、资金周转率指数环 比回升1.3个百分点和0.1个百分点，四季度设备利用率指数均值为49.1%，比三季度回升0.3个百分点，资金周转率指数均值为 50.5%，保持扩张区间，企业资金周转加快。当月物流业固定资产投资完成额指数环比持平。 胡焓认为，企业在成本刚性上涨的情况下韧性经营，四季度主营业务利润指数均值为47%，环比三季度回升0.6个百分点。 在"十四五"规划收官和"十五五"规划开局的这一重要时点，物流与供应链发展迎来重大发展机遇，海南自由贸易港封关运行重 塑全球产业链，降低全社会物流成本持续推进，头部企业战略合作抱团取暖，数字要素和人工智能深度嵌入供应链。 后期来看，刘宇航表示， ...

昨天（12月24日），张家港海关、金港海关召开今年外贸进出口情况新闻发布会，介绍今年前11月 张家港市外贸进出口情况和优化口岸营商环境、服务外贸高质量发展主要举措。 数据显示，今年前11个月，张家港外贸总值2551亿元，同比增长3.1%，其中出口1422.2亿元，同比 增长8.6%。 海关多举措助外贸发展 张家港外贸交出的亮眼成绩单，背后离不开张家港海关、金港海关的精准赋能。今年以来，海关部 门优化营商环境，服务外贸高质量发展，为"十五五"时期外贸持续向好筑牢基础。 聚焦通关提速，张家港海关推出24小时预约通关机制，保障应急通关、节假日通关及疑难复杂货物 通关需求；聚焦减税降费，张家港海关对重点企业开展精准帮扶，帮助企业整理商品享惠对比清单，制 订享惠规划；聚焦动能培育，张家港海关采用"国外一线进口+保税"模式，支持半导体供应链企业以公 用型保税仓库为分拨中心，清关完成直接发货，每批次时长减少五个工作日。 面对张家港口岸货运量逐年增长的现状，海关部门以"智慧海关、智能边境、智能联通"的"三智"理 念引领口岸智慧化升级。结合进口木材、矿产品、粮油等货物特点，张家港海关打造十大"优创"项目。 例如，以车间为单元， ...

从产品类型看，机电产品仍为主要出口商品，铜材出口继续保持较快增长。其中，摩托车、通用机 械设备分别出口31.2亿元、25.4亿元，分别增长26.7%、11.9%。 同期，太仓企业对德国进出口超120.4亿元，德国继续保持太仓最大单一贸易伙伴国地位。 用好江海河、铁公水多式联运优势，太仓海关深化提前申报便利模式，扩增港口堆存面积超4万平 方米，助力长江最大汽车滚装码头高效运转，物流能力提升78%。1月至11月，太仓港出口汽车77.16万 辆，同比增长76.46%，"江苏及长江沿线汽车出口第一大港"优势持续巩固。 为提升外贸大港通关效率，太仓海关开通大型设备"抵港直装"快速通道，压缩码头堆存时长超 50%，助推工程机械、大型储能柜出口倍增；依托信息化系统实现空箱申报、移箱、放行信息共享，助 力24.28万标箱新造集装箱出口效率提升30%。 此外，太仓海关打通口岸跨部门数据接口，集成一体化智慧水运口岸系统。"检验检疫处理监管平 台"实现《检验检疫处理通知书》秒签秒到；"智慧船舶监管应用"压缩供船物料审批时长近50%；升 级"联动接卸"，服务长三角一体化。全国首创"联动接卸"监管模式被写入国务院《关于推动外贸稳规模 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-6332 ...

万亿美元顺差的构成 在海关总署公布最新数据仅一天后，《华尔街日报》将中国贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元描述为"前所未 有的经济历史纪录"。 2025年前11个月，中国贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元大关，达到1.076万亿美元。这一数字背后是中国对 外贸易版图的显著变化：对美国市场出口下滑，而对欧盟、东南亚和澳大利亚等市场的依赖度显著提 升。 中国对外贸易正在呈现出口韧性持续与进口相对疲软的"非常态"格局。根据海关总署数据，今年前11个 月，中国货物贸易进出口总值达到41.21万亿元人民币，同比增长3.6%。 这一总体增长由出口驱动。其中出口24.46万亿元，增长6.2%；而进口16.75万亿元，仅微增0.2%。 来源：原点新财经 这种互补关系延伸到消费品领域：中国进口的72%箱包、51.7%乘用车来自欧盟，而中国对欧盟出口的 电子电器、服装等产品也保持增长。 在东南亚市场，产能出海成为关键驱动力。中国企业对越南、泰国等国家的投资增加，带动了相关电子 产品的中间品出口，如电话机零件、集成电路和平板显示模块等。这种"中国—东盟"供应链协同关系， 使中国能够通过中间品贸易维持对该地区的出口增长。 这种"强出口、弱进口"的组 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 12 月出口有承压风险，但明年韧性仍强 ——11 月外贸数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 对欧盟、非洲、拉丁美洲出口走强带动 11 月出口同比回升，整体表现不弱。11 月 9 日以来， 全球、美国进口、中国赴美集装箱订舱量各周同比增速持续下滑，或预示 12 月出口承压概率 较大。更长维度看，降息对全球制造业周期的提振效果仍在延续，叠加我国出口商品的价格优 势、对一带一路国家投资带动的出口需求，或将持续支撑我国出口韧性增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 12 月出口有承压风险，但明年韧性仍强 2] ——11 月外贸数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 8 日，海关总署发布 11 月外贸数据：以美元计，我国 11 月出口 3303.5 亿美元， ...

Economic Overview - From January to October 2023, the overall economic operation in Jiangmen remained stable, with the industrial added value above designated size increasing by 2.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The local general public budget revenue reached 25.437 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1% [4] - The total value of foreign trade imports and exports was 163.11 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, outpacing the national and provincial average growth rates [1][5] Industrial Performance - The manufacturing sector saw an added value growth of 3.6%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry experienced a decline of 4.7%, and the mining industry decreased by 29.7% [2] - By economic type, the added value of joint-stock enterprises grew by 4.0%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investment enterprises saw a minimal increase of 0.1% [2] - In terms of enterprise size, large enterprises reported a 2.6% increase in added value, medium-sized enterprises experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, and small and micro enterprises grew by 4.0% [2] Foreign Trade Dynamics - Exports totaled 139.91 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8%, ranking fifth in the province, while imports were 23.2 billion yuan, showing a decline of 7.1% [5] - Private enterprises' imports and exports reached 95.07 billion yuan, increasing by 10.4% and accounting for 58.3% of the total [6] - Trade with traditional markets remained resilient, with exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Hong Kong growing by 8%, 4.4%, and 11.4% respectively, while emerging markets like Latin America and Africa saw significant growth [6] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 110.005 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [4] - Fixed asset investment in the city saw a significant decline of 29.5% [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a slight increase of 0.1% in October compared to the previous month [4] Key Export Products - The top five export products included household appliances (17.96 billion yuan, down 4.9%), motorcycles (15.73 billion yuan, up 51.2%), general machinery (8.27 billion yuan, up 7%), textiles and clothing (7.47 billion yuan, down 12.3%), and printed circuits (7.25 billion yuan, up 7.1%), collectively accounting for 40.5% of total exports [8] - Notable growth was observed in the import of integrated circuits (2.5 billion yuan, up 21.5%) and metal ores (440 million yuan, up 26.5%) [8]

Export Data - From January to October 2025, China's goods trade exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of $964.82 billion[1] - In October 2025, exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant decline of 9.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, while imports grew by 1.0%, down 6.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus for October 2025 was $90.07 billion[1] Trade Partners - In October 2025, exports to the United States decreased by 25.2%, while imports fell by 22.8%, with total trade amounting to $45.08 billion, accounting for 8.7% of total trade[2] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 11.0% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 4.6%, with total trade reaching $85.75 billion, representing 16.5% of total trade[2] - Exports to the European Union rose by 0.9%, while imports increased by 4.0%, with total trade amounting to $66.03 billion, accounting for 12.7% of total trade[2] Product Performance - From January to October 2025, integrated circuits, general machinery, and ship exports grew by 23.7%, 20.5%, and 25.0% year-on-year, respectively[3] - High-tech product imports remained active, with semiconductor devices, integrated circuits, and automatic data processing equipment showing year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 9.0%, and 19.5% respectively[3] - Light industrial products, such as lamps, toys, and bags, saw export declines exceeding 10% year-on-year[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic response to the significant increase in U.S. tariffs, highlighting a shift in trade focus and the resilience of China's foreign trade despite challenges posed by the tariffs [1][3][25]. Trade Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade reached 33.6 trillion yuan, showing positive growth that exceeded expectations [3]. - The share of exports to the U.S. has decreased from a peak of 10.4% in 2018, indicating a significant reduction in reliance on the U.S. market [3][11]. Market Diversification - ASEAN and the EU have become crucial markets for China, with exports to these regions increasing and accounting for over 20% of total exports, effectively offsetting the decline in U.S. exports [7]. - Trade facilitation under the RCEP framework has contributed to this diversification, allowing for zero-tariff trade on many products within the region [7]. Emerging Markets - China's exports to emerging markets, particularly in Africa, have seen substantial growth, with countries like Tanzania and Kenya rapidly increasing imports of Chinese machinery and electrical products [9]. - By July 2025, China was among the top three import sources for 166 countries and regions, reflecting its growing significance in global trade [11]. Product Transition - There has been a strategic shift in the types of products exported, moving from labor-intensive goods to high-value products such as machinery, integrated circuits, and electric vehicles [14][16]. - The share of high-end manufacturing products in exports has increased, with significant growth in sectors like automotive and lithium batteries [16][18]. Supply Chain Strategy - China has diversified its supply chains, particularly in strategic resources like food and energy, reducing dependence on single sources such as U.S. soybeans [21][25]. - The shift in soybean imports from the U.S. to South American countries like Argentina and Brazil illustrates a broader strategy to enhance supply chain security [23]. Long-term Strategy - The adjustments in trade strategy are not reactive but rather the result of long-term planning, focusing on quality improvement and technological advancement in exports [19][30]. - The article emphasizes that China's approach to trade is evolving from price competition to leveraging technology and brand strength, enhancing its competitive edge in the global market [19][27]. Global Trade Dynamics - The article concludes that China's actions reflect a broader trend towards a decentralized and regionalized global trade structure, promoting open cooperation as a path to mutual benefit [29][32].