"依托坚实的需求基础、明确的政策导向和高端领域的突破潜力，我们判断中国石化行业仍将保持稳健 增长态势。科德宝集团将在这一行业持续构建可持续的竞争力，实现扎根中国、与市场共同成长的长期 战略目标。"科德宝集团中国地区代表王嘉毓表示，新的一年，科德宝将以"在中国，为中国"深度本土 化为战略基石，继续在本地研发、本地生产和新市场拓展三个层面积极布局。 中国市场仍将保持稳健增长 关于对新一年里中国市场的研判，王嘉毓表示，中国作为全球最大的石化产品生产国和消费国，14多亿 人口的现代化进程为其提供了强劲且持续的需求支撑。同时，中国拥有完整的石化产业链，产能在全球 20多类基础化学品中位居首位，并持续通过高水平对外开放优化营商环境，吸引了一批重大外资投资项 目。 当前中国石化行业面临全球经济格局深刻变革、供需结构性失衡以及绿色低碳转型等多重挑战。在此背 景下，政策层面的精准调控正积极引导产业向高端化、绿色化方向发展，例如通过稳增长工作方案、设 备更新改造等举措，为企业提供了清晰的市场预期，并创造了新的转型需求。 值得一提的是，尽管行业存在结构性矛盾，但在高端聚烯烃、电子化学品、碳纤维等新材料领域正持续 取得突破。掌握核心 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is evolving into a comprehensive consumption ecosystem, integrating tourism and smart transportation, creating new opportunities for aviation and tourism industries [3] - The mechanical equipment sector shows strong competitive advantages for domestic leading enterprises in both supply and demand, with a steady growth outlook for the engineering machinery industry [4] Weekly Market Review - From January 25 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the ShenZhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62% and 0.09%, respectively. The Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index dropped by 3.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.57 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [12] - Sub-sectors such as general equipment, specialized equipment, rail transit equipment II, engineering machinery, and automation equipment experienced declines of 4.15%, 2.79%, 3.62%, 3.91%, and 3.07%, respectively [12] Key Sector Tracking - The low-altitude economy is showing significant progress in the integration of cultural tourism and smart transportation, with various applications emerging from the Ministry of Transport's innovative case studies [3] - The rental rate index for aerial work platforms was reported at 633 points in December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.8% but a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4] Investment Recommendations - For the low-altitude economy, recommended companies include ShenChengJiao, SuJiaoKe, HuaShe Group, and NaRui Radar; for complete machines, focus on WanFeng AoWei, YiHang Intelligent, ZongHeng Co., and Green Energy HuiChong; for core components, consider ZongShen Power, WoLong Electric Drive, YingLiu Co., and YingBoEr; in air traffic management and operations, look at CITIC HAIZHI, ZhongKe XingTu, and Sichuan JiuZhou [5] - In the mechanical equipment sector, recommended companies include JuXing Technology, QuanFeng Holdings, and JiuHao Company for the export chain; for engineering machinery, focus on SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Anhui Heli; for industrial mother machines, consider HuaZhong CNC, KeDe CNC, and HengLi Hydraulic [5] Economic Data Tracking - The manufacturing PMI and its components are being closely monitored, with significant fluctuations noted in production and new orders [32][33] - The monthly export totals and changes are also being tracked, indicating trends in the mechanical equipment sector [38]

Core Insights - The trade volume between China and the five Central Asian countries has surpassed $100 billion for the first time, reaching $106.3 billion in 2025, marking a 12% year-on-year increase and setting a historical record [1][4][14] - China has become the largest trading partner for Central Asian countries, with trade volume doubling from $49.56 billion in 2021 to 2025 [4][14] - The China-Central Asia cooperation mechanism has emerged as a leading model for regional collaboration, reflecting strong endogenous momentum in trade cooperation [4][18] Trade Dynamics - In 2025, China's exports to the five Central Asian countries are projected to be $71.2 billion, a growth of 11%, with strong demand for electromechanical and high-tech products [6] - Imports from Central Asia are expected to reach $35.1 billion, a 14% increase, primarily consisting of energy and mineral commodities, with a growing variety of non-resource products [6][18] - The trade relationship is characterized by mutual support in supply chains, fulfilling each other's developmental needs and driving regional economic growth [6][18] Cooperation Framework - The China-Central Asia cooperation mechanism has established a comprehensive and multi-level cooperation framework, with 14 ministerial cooperation platforms actively operating [8][18] - New growth areas for cooperation include green industries, digital economy, artificial intelligence, and aerospace [8][18] - The mechanism's effectiveness is highlighted by the launch of the China-Central Asia Trade Facilitation Cooperation Platform, aimed at enhancing market demand alignment [16][18] Future Prospects - The years 2025 to 2026 are designated as the "High-Quality Development Year for China-Central Asia Cooperation," focusing on expanding and deepening economic and trade cooperation [10] - There is an emphasis on fostering new business models and expanding cooperation in emerging fields such as e-commerce and renewable energy [10] - The China-Central Asia spirit emphasizes mutual respect, trust, and benefit, positioning China as a reliable partner for Central Asian countries [20]

Group 1: Export Performance - December exports showed a significant year-on-year increase of 6.1%, up from 5.9% in the previous month, indicating a strong finish for 2025[7] - The demand for capital goods, particularly from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, continues to support China's equipment exports, with December's growth at 3.5%[7] - Exports to Africa, a key region for capital goods, maintained a high growth rate of 21.8% in December, despite a slight decline from 27.6%[7] Group 2: Import Trends - U.S. imports from China showed a significant decline of 30% in December, contrasting with a 12.8% increase in non-U.S. regions, highlighting weak demand in traditional consumer goods[7] - The inventory pressure in the U.S. market remains high, affecting short-term import demand, particularly in the traditional consumer goods sector[7] - Despite current weaknesses, the overall U.S. demand remains resilient, with expectations for a recovery in import demand, particularly in electronics[7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The adjustment of tariff policies in regions like Russia and the EU has led to a surge in exports, with December automotive exports increasing by 71.7% compared to the previous year[7] - The shift in U.S. mobile phone import sources, with China's share dropping from 77.8% to 23% while India's share rose from 15.5% to 56.2%, indicates a significant restructuring in trade dynamics[7] - The strong performance of electronic products, including integrated circuits and mobile phones, suggests a potential recovery in U.S. consumer electronics demand, which may positively impact future export growth[7]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is experiencing sustained demand from the real economy, with a notable recovery in the logistics business activity index, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The logistics industry prosperity index for December 2025 is reported at 52.4%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, marking the highest index for the year [1] - The average prosperity index for the logistics industry in 2025 is 50.8%, with quarterly averages showing a steady increase: 50.2%, 50.8%, 50.9%, and 51.3% [1] - The business volume index for December 2025 is also at 52.4%, showing a continuous rise and a 1.7 percentage point increase from October [2] Group 2: Regional Performance - The business volume indices for December 2025 across three major regions are as follows: Eastern region at 51.7%, Central region at 52%, and Western region at 52.9%, with respective month-on-month increases of 1.2, 1.0, and 1.7 percentage points [2] Group 3: Market Expectations - The business activity expectation index for December 2025 stands at 54.8%, with the fourth quarter average remaining at 55, indicating stable high market expectations [2] - The new orders index for December 2025 is at 51.8%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion in new orders [2] Group 4: Consumer Sector Insights - The online retail sales of physical goods reached 11.8 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, growing by 5.7% and accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [3] - The logistics indices for railway transport, multimodal transport, and postal express services remain above 55, indicating high activity levels in these sectors [3] Group 5: Operational Dynamics - Equipment utilization and capital turnover indices showed month-on-month increases of 1.3 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, with the average equipment utilization index for the fourth quarter at 49.1% [4] - The average profit index for main business operations in the fourth quarter is reported at 47%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [4] Group 6: Future Outlook - The logistics industry is expected to maintain a high level of fixed asset investment completion index above 55%, with business activity expectation index at 54.8%, indicating a stable and positive outlook for the future [4]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is showing signs of recovery and growth, with the logistics prosperity index reaching 52.4% in December 2025, indicating sustained demand in the real economy [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The logistics prosperity index for 2025 averaged 50.8%, with quarterly averages of 50.2%, 50.8%, 50.9%, and 51.3%, reflecting a steady recovery and optimization of industry dynamics [1] - The business volume index for December 2025 was 52.4%, marking a 1.7 percentage point increase from October, with all three major regions (East, Central, and West) showing balanced growth [1] - The fourth quarter business volume index averaged 51.3%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the third quarter [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The business activity expectation index for December 2025 was 54.8%, with the fourth quarter average remaining at 55, indicating stable high expectations in the market [2] - The new orders index for December was 51.8%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase, suggesting ongoing expansion in demand [2] - E-commerce retail sales reached 11.8 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, growing by 5.7% and accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Demand from bulk energy, manufacturing, and consumer sectors is driving overall logistics improvement, with significant logistics needs emerging in sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end pharmaceuticals [3] - The equipment utilization index and capital turnover index showed month-on-month increases of 1.3 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating improved operational efficiency [3] - The average profit index for main business operations in the fourth quarter was 47%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase from the third quarter [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The logistics industry is expected to maintain a high level of fixed asset investment completion index above 55%, with business activity expectations remaining strong at 54.8% [4] - The development of logistics and supply chains is poised for significant opportunities, particularly with the operational launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port [4]

Core Insights - Zhangjiagang's foreign trade demonstrated resilience and growth in the first 11 months of the year, with a total trade value of 255.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and exports reaching 142.2 billion yuan, up 8.6% [1][2] Group 1: Trade Performance - The foreign trade in Zhangjiagang showed a steady increase despite global economic challenges, characterized by growth in foreign-invested and state-owned enterprises, as well as significant exports of machinery and lithium batteries [2] - Private enterprises led the trade with an import and export value of 127.2 billion yuan, accounting for 49.9% of the total foreign trade [2] - Exports of machinery products reached 45.95 billion yuan, increasing by 15.8%, while lithium-ion battery exports surged by 147.2% to 1.1 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Market Diversification - Zhangjiagang's trade with ASEAN and Brazil, its largest trading partners, saw substantial growth, with trade values of 44.07 billion yuan (up 20.7%) and 37.96 billion yuan (up 5.8%) respectively [2] - The total import and export value with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 150.53 billion yuan, marking a 16% increase [2] Group 3: Customs Initiatives - Zhangjiagang Customs implemented various measures to enhance the business environment, including a 24-hour appointment system for customs clearance and targeted support for key enterprises [3] - The customs authority introduced a "smart customs" initiative to improve efficiency, including the establishment of virtual storage areas and streamlined logistics processes [3] - The AEO certification program has been a focus for Jin Gang Customs, with 18 AEO enterprises contributing 20% of the city's total trade volume [4]

Core Insights - Taicang's foreign trade import and export value reached 108.93 billion yuan from January to November, with exports at 67.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [1] - General trade accounted for 73.2% of the total foreign trade value, while processing trade saw a 12.3% increase, reaching 19.07 billion yuan [1] - Private enterprises contributed significantly, with imports and exports totaling 46.34 billion yuan, a growth of 11.2%, representing 42.5% of the total foreign trade value [1] Trade Partners - Germany remains Taicang's largest single trade partner, with imports and exports exceeding 12.04 billion yuan [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for 49.2% of total trade, with a value of 53.65 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% [1][2] Product Categories - Electromechanical products are the main export items, with motorcycle and general machinery exports at 3.12 billion yuan and 2.54 billion yuan, respectively, showing growth rates of 26.7% and 11.9% [1] Logistics and Efficiency - Taicang Customs has enhanced logistics capabilities, increasing port storage area by over 40,000 square meters and improving logistics efficiency by 78% [2] - The introduction of a rapid passage for large equipment has reduced storage time at the port by over 50%, significantly boosting exports of construction machinery and large energy storage cabinets [2] - The integration of a smart water transport system has improved the efficiency of new container exports by 30% [2]

Group 1: Export Performance - In November, exports saw a significant year-on-year increase of 5.9%, rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1%[6] - Exports to the US decreased by 28.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in consumer goods exports[6] - Non-US regions showed resilience in import demand, particularly in capital goods, which outperformed consumer goods[6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for investment-related equipment remains a core driver of export recovery, especially in non-US markets[6] - The AI-related processing trade chain between China and other Asian regions continues to boost exports, with significant increases in integrated circuit exports[6] - The reduction of tariffs on fentanyl by the US has not diminished the confidence of Chinese manufacturers in expanding overseas[6] Group 3: EU Export Trends - Exports to the EU surged by 14.8% year-on-year in November, marking the highest growth rate for the year[6] - The sustainability of this growth is uncertain, as it may be driven by preemptive imports ahead of the upcoming carbon tax legislation in January 2026[6] - Overall, the export structure remains unchanged, with limited recovery expected in consumer goods exports until the end of Q1 next year[6]

Core Insights - China's trade surplus has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, reaching $1.076 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, marking an unprecedented economic milestone [3][4] - The trade dynamics have shifted, with a notable decline in exports to the U.S. while increasing reliance on markets such as the EU, Southeast Asia, and Australia [3][5] Trade Surplus Composition - China's total goods trade value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, driven by exports of 24.46 trillion yuan (up 6.2%) and imports of 16.75 trillion yuan (up only 0.2%) [4] - In November, trade growth showed signs of recovery, with total trade value at 3.9 trillion yuan, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, where exports grew by 5.7% and imports by 1.7% [4] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with total trade value dropping to 2.08 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year, and a 20.8% decline in the second quarter [4] Market Diversification - In response to the decline in U.S. exports, China is accelerating market diversification, with strong growth in exports to other major trading partners [5] - Exports to the EU increased by 14.8%, to Australia by 35.8%, and to Southeast Asia by 8.2% in the first 11 months of the year [6] - The trade relationship with Australia has seen nearly 100% growth over the past decade, with bilateral trade reaching $211.53 billion in 2024, surpassing U.S.-Australia trade [6] Differentiated Market Opportunities - The trade relationship between China and the EU is characterized by high complementarity, with a 30.4% increase in high-end equipment imports from the EU and an 81.9% increase in industrial robot exports to the EU [6] - In Southeast Asia, increased investment by Chinese companies in countries like Vietnam and Thailand has driven exports of intermediate electronic products [6] - The Australian market benefits from the entry of Chinese e-commerce platforms, potentially reducing overall inflation rates by 20-50 basis points [7] Structural Changes in Exports - China's export structure is shifting from labor-intensive products to mid-to-high-end manufacturing, with significant growth in shipbuilding (43.7%) and integrated circuits (33.4%) [7] - Traditional labor-intensive products are facing challenges, with declines in exports of bags, textiles, and toys [7] - The transition towards providing comprehensive solutions in high-end manufacturing is enhancing China's position in the global supply chain [7] Emerging Trade Patterns - China's trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 11.29 trillion yuan, a 4.7% increase, accounting for 51.8% of total trade, marking a fundamental shift in trade patterns [8] - The share of U.S. exports has decreased from 16.8% in 2019 to 12% in 2025, while ASEAN's share has increased to 17.8% [8] - The global supply chain is experiencing an "eastward" shift, with rising demand for automation and engineering machinery in emerging markets [8] Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - Cross-border e-commerce has become a significant new force in China's foreign trade, with a 14% year-on-year growth in import and export scale, and a 16.9% increase in exports [8] - The changes in China's trade landscape reflect a continuous optimization of export structures and an expanding global trade network [8]