证券研究报告 | 年度策略 2025 12 12 年 月 日 A股2026年策略展望： 牛市从估值驱动到业绩驱动 分析师：杨柳 执业证书编号：S0680524010002 邮箱：yangliu3@gszq.com 分析师：王浩 执业证书编号：S0680524020001 邮箱：wanghao5@gszq.com 核心观点 打造极致专业与效率 2 • 回看2025年，A股市场于4月回踩至全年最低点后一路向上，沪指一举突破10年新高，背后是叙事的变化逐渐吸引增量资金入市，估 值驱动成为行情向上的主导力量：国内基本面预期改善叠加低利率"资产荒"驱动险资加码配置权益；AI发展进入全球共振阶段吸引 基金对AI算力与新能源加码配置、游资跟随买入助推行情；而大国博弈作为地缘方面最重要的叙事，引发了国家资本入市维稳市场以 及对资源品、国产替代投资情绪的高涨。 • 展望2026年，估值可能继续产生正向驱动，但强度边际弱化。海内外货币宽松的基调仍将延续，但外部降息与内部货币扩张的节奏尚 存变数，预计股市流动性的险资增量贡献仍有较强确定性，居民财富入市能否延续、强度如何都难以明确，同时宏观可见度不足，中 美、政策、地产、 AI均面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreements signed by Jingjia Micro (景嘉微) with Jida Zhengyuan (吉大正元) and Cangqiong Digital Technology (苍穹数码) aim to integrate resources and enhance product offerings in the fields of digital security and geographic information systems, respectively, thereby providing reliable solutions for government and enterprise users [1][3][4] Group 1: Cooperation with Jida Zhengyuan - Jingjia Micro and Jida Zhengyuan have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to integrate their strengths in brand, product, and technology to offer secure and reliable solutions [1] - The collaboration focuses on the integration of Jingjia Micro's GPU product JM11 with Jida Zhengyuan's security products, enhancing graphical security operations and efficient data processing capabilities [2] - Both companies will prioritize recommending each other's solutions to their respective customer bases and will jointly participate in industry exhibitions and technical seminars to promote their offerings [2][3] Group 2: Cooperation with Cangqiong Digital Technology - Jingjia Micro has also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Cangqiong Digital Technology to create a sustainable partnership that leverages both companies' strengths in product and technology [3][4] - The partnership will focus on deep integration of Cangqiong Digital's GIS platform and other software with Jingjia Micro's high-performance GPU products to develop comprehensive domestic solutions for various high-security and high-performance application scenarios [4] - Both companies will support each other's branding efforts, collaborate on major project bids, and establish a joint laboratory for technology exchange and research [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.11% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.37 trillion yuan, a decrease of 159.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.50, down 7.53 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47, down 123.95 points [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3078.76, down 34.50 points [2] - The Wande All A Index closed at 6304.08, down 22.32 points [2] Port and Shipping Stocks - Port stocks saw a collective surge, with Nanjing Port hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Lianyungang, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Ningbo Maritime also rising [3] - Shipping stocks also experienced gains, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Ningbo Maritime rising over 6% at one point [3] Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth sector showed strong performance, with multiple stocks, including China Rare Earth, rising by 10% [5] - The rare earth index increased by 9.49%, closing at 3159.19 [6] - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related items, expanding the scope to include technologies and equipment, which covers the entire rare earth industry chain [6][7] Company Highlights - Kingsoft Office saw its stock price increase by over 8%, driven by the announcement that the Ministry of Commerce's recent notice would now be in WPS format, trending on social media [9] - Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 1.748 billion yuan from its WPS personal business, a year-on-year increase of 8.38%, and a significant growth of 62.27% in WPS 365 business revenue [9]

Group 1: Software ETF Performance - The Software ETF has a turnover rate of 13.16% and a trading volume of 720 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The latest scale of the Software ETF reached 5.434 billion yuan, marking a one-month high and ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The latest share count of the Software ETF is 5.827 billion shares, also a one-month high and leading among comparable funds [1] - Over the past four days, the Software ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 507 million yuan, totaling 620 million yuan [1] - As of October 10, 2025, the net value of the Software ETF has increased by 34.34% over the past three years [1] - The highest monthly return since inception is 39.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being three months and a maximum increase of 69.40% [1] - The average return during the months of increase is 10.06% [1] Group 2: Key Holdings in Software Sector - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Software Service Index include iFlytek, Tonghuashun, Kingsoft Office, Zhinan Zhen, Hengsheng Electronics, Runhe Software, 360, Tuo Wei Information, Yonyou Network, and Deepin Technology, collectively accounting for 62.41% of the index [1] Group 3: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain foreign rare earth-related items containing Chinese components, with the announcement format changing to WPS, which has sparked discussions [2] - Huachuang Securities noted that the demand for domestic software is accelerating due to the need for self-reliance in technology, driving the development of secure and controllable industrial software and computing power industries [2] - The Ministry of Finance's procurement standards for 2024 emphasize self-reliance, and continuous updates to security assessments are expected to lead to high-quality industry development [2] - The domestic software industry's performance is gradually improving, confirming a turning point [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic software sector is experiencing strong growth, driven by the trend of self-sufficiency in technology and increasing demand for domestic products [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices opened lower, but the domestic software sector saw a significant rally, with the software leader ETF (159899) rising by 2.3% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Kingsoft Office, which surged by 17.51%, and China Software, which hit the daily limit, along with gains from Youyou Network (up 8.56%) and others [1] Group 2: Company Financials - Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 1.748 billion yuan from its WPS personal business, marking an 8.38% year-on-year increase [2] - The WPS 365 business saw a substantial revenue increase of 62.27% year-on-year, reaching 309 million yuan [2] - The total revenue from WPS software was 542 million yuan, with global monthly active devices reaching 651 million, a year-on-year growth of 8.56% [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The demand for domestic software is accelerating due to government procurement standards emphasizing self-sufficiency, with high-quality development expected in the industry [2] - The software leader ETF (159899) closely tracks the CSI All-Share Software Index, covering various segments such as basic software, application software, and cybersecurity [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown strong performance, surpassing 3674.4 points, marking a new high since October 8, 2024, with the computer sector remaining active [1] - The Cloud Computing ETF (517390) rose by 1.55%, with leading stocks including New Yisheng, Alibaba-W, Taiji Co., Kingsoft Cloud, and Tencent Holdings showing significant gains [1] - As of August 12, the Cloud Computing ETF (517390) had a latest circulation scale of 269 million yuan, ranking first among similar products in the Shanghai market [1] Group 2 - Huawei officially launched its AI inference innovation technology UCM on August 12, which integrates various caching acceleration algorithms to enhance inference performance and reduce costs [2] - Huawei plans to open-source UCM by September 2025, contributing it to mainstream inference engine communities and sharing it with storage manufacturers and ecosystem partners [2] - The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to provide clear direction for the large-scale and intensive development of data centers, combining low-cost resources in the west with high market demand in the east [2] Group 3 - China is firmly establishing a "secure and controllable" computing foundation, with promising development prospects for domestic computing chips and their supply chains, represented by Huawei's Ascend [3]