从业资格证号：F03104274 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：闾振兴 宝城期货投资咨询部 投资咨询证号：Z0018163 电话：0571-87633890 邮箱：lvzhenxing@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 4 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 沪铝走高 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜低开高走，整体承压，主要受宏观流动性收紧主导：美 元指数创新高，源于中东地缘冲突推升能源价格，强化美联储推迟 降息预期。基本面呈现"高库存+弱需求"格局。需求端，2 月中国 制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0%，低于预期，中、小型企业景气度持续收 缩，终端消费复苏乏力。库存累积与宏观压制形成共振，主导沪铜 震荡偏弱走势。 沪铝 沪铝近期走强主要受中东地缘政治风险驱动，霍尔木兹海峡航运 受阻威胁 ...

锡价行情拐点的出现需结合短期情绪与中期供需综合判断，短期1-4周内若想迎来拐点，需同时满足三 大条件，即美联储政策预期明朗化、宏观情绪企稳回落，缅甸复产遇阻、印尼配额调整等供应端扰动重 现，以及春节后下游企业复工复产、PCB、光伏等行业进入传统旺季带动现货成交改善；中期2-4个月 来看，拐点核心取决于供需再平衡节奏，二季度后缅甸、印尼新增产能将集中释放，预计全球锡矿供应 增加8%，供应紧张格局有望缓解，而AI服务器、光伏、新能源汽车三大新兴领域需求持续增长，将对 锡价形成长期支撑，若库存累库速度慢于预期或下游需求超预期爆发，锡价有望在二季度末迎来中期拐 点，结合市场分析共识，短期锡价调整或持续1-2个月，在35-38万元/吨区间震荡，中期二季度后有望重 新回归上行通道。 今日长江现货1#锡报价375250-379250元/吨，均价377250元/吨，较昨日暴跌15000，跌幅超10%，延续2 月2日以来的大幅下行态势；核心结论明确，锡价下跌系宏观流动性收紧、供应修复、技术破位与多头 踩踏共振所致，本交易日暴跌趋缓但下行未改，37万关口承压，短期3-4周、中期二季度有望迎来拐 点，供需呈现供应提速、需求淡季格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's monetary policy is becoming a key indicator influencing digital asset trends amid increasing global financial market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - Japan's December headline inflation data unexpectedly dropped to 2.1%, indicating a superficial easing of price pressures, yet the Bank of Japan remains vigilant [1][2]. - The central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% while raising growth and inflation expectations for the next two years, signaling a hawkish stance [3][4]. - The adjustment in macro expectations by the Bank of Japan is seen as paving the way for future policy normalization, which exerts downward pressure on Bitcoin valuations [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Asset Correlation - Marginal tightening of macro liquidity is continuously impacting risk assets, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rising to 1.12%, boosting global risk-free rates [4]. - This change in the financing environment has led to a decline in buying interest for Bitcoin around the $90,000 mark [4]. - There is a high correlation coefficient of 0.84 between Bitcoin and the Japanese yen, indicating that any fluctuations in the forex market will quickly affect the cryptocurrency market [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - As the yen remains under pressure around 158.70, Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes appear overshadowed by its risk asset characteristics [4][5]. - Despite a decline in headline inflation, core inflation, excluding energy, remains high at 2.9%, making it difficult for the Bank of Japan to adopt a dovish stance in the short term [5]. - The potential for persistent price pressures means that interest rate hike expectations will continue to suppress the premium space for risk assets [5]. - The company will monitor the global macro environment's potential impact on the support levels for the yen and Bitcoin, assisting clients in developing more defensive investment strategies [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is at a high level while overseas construction projects are progressing slowly; demand is growing steadily, and the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits are high, and low inventory is a key price support. High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchases, and concerns about macro - liquidity tightening lead to a high - level oscillation of the market [3]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and new capacity is being gradually put into production. Demand growth has slowed down, weakening market sentiment. Current inventory is accumulating, but policies encouraging industrial mergers and reorganizations have sparked "capacity clearance" policy expectations, and the futures price has rebounded sharply. A short - term bottom for alumina may be gradually emerging [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: The report shows the national and provincial monthly production seasonality, monthly import volume seasonality, and port inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite [20][21]. - **Alumina**: It presents the monthly production seasonality of Chinese alumina, the monthly production of major production areas, national and provincial weekly operating rates, monthly import volume seasonality, and import profit and loss [23][25][29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The report includes the monthly and weekly production seasonality of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, monthly net import seasonality, and spot import profit and loss, as well as the monthly production seasonality of global electrolytic aluminum [32][33][34]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - **Product Output**: It details the weekly and monthly output seasonality of various aluminum products such as aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [36][39]. - **Operating Rates**: The report shows the weekly and monthly operating rates seasonality of different aluminum product industries, including aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys [40][49]. - **Exports**: It provides the monthly export volume seasonality of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of Chinese aluminum products [51][53]. - **Related Industries**: It presents the data related to industries consuming aluminum, such as the cumulative year - on - year of housing start - up and completion areas and fixed - asset investment, the monthly output seasonality of automobiles and new - energy vehicles, the monthly investment completion amount of power grid projects, and the monthly new - installed capacity of photovoltaics [57][59][62]. 3.3 Inventory - **Bauxite**: It shows the monthly inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite in the whole country and in specific provinces like Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi [66][67]. - **Alumina**: It includes the factory - level inventory seasonality of alumina enterprises, the number of inventory days, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipt total seasonality [68][69]. - **Aluminum**: It shows the LME aluminum inventory seasonality, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity seasonality, Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, aluminum rod and aluminum ingot + aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality [69][70][72]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Raw Materials**: It presents the prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas TTF, and European electricity prices [74][75][76]. - **Production**: It shows the cost of alumina and the cost - profit situation of Chinese electrolytic aluminum [74][76].