美国私募信贷惊雷：120亿美元债务瞬间爆雷，下一个"雷曼时刻"？ 2025年9月28日，美国汽车零部件制造商First Brands Group的破产申请，犹如一颗投入平静湖面的巨石，在华尔街激起千层浪。 这家非上市公司留下的120亿美元复杂债务，不仅暴露了私募信贷市场的深层风险，更让市场惊呼——"2008年次贷危机是否正在 私募领域重演？" 一、First Brands破产：私募信贷的"完美风暴"样本 1. 债务黑箱的崩塌 First Brands的破产文件显示，其债务结构包含58亿美元杠杆贷款及62亿美元表外融资，涉及数十家私募基金、CLO（贷款抵押债 券）管理人和特殊目的实体（SPE）。其中： - 交叉担保陷阱：创始人帕特里克·詹姆斯通过同一系列LLC同时控制集团及表外实体，形成"自融循环"； - 抵押物迷局：调查发现同一批应收账款被多次质押，债务抵押物可能被"混合处理"（commingled）； - 信息黑洞：作为非上市公司，其财报仅对签署保密协议的机构开放，高盛交易员在破产前几小时才察觉异常。 2. 高收益背后的致命诱惑 私募信贷市场近年以8%-10%的年化回报吸引全球资本，但First Brand ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index experienced a thrilling six-day rise, reaching a new high, while the Nasdaq turned negative after the US ISM services data [2] - Nvidia fell from record highs but gained over 5% for the week, while Palantir dropped more than 7% [2] - European stock indices rose nearly 3% for the week, marking the largest weekly gain in five months [2] - Bitcoin approached a record high, testing $125,000, with a weekly increase of over 10% [2] - Crude oil prices rose for the week, but Brent crude still recorded a cumulative drop of over 8%, the largest decline in three months [2] Key News - The Republican Party's decision to not return to Washington this week may prolong the government shutdown, potentially delaying the release of the US CPI data [10] - Trump's economic team has shifted its messaging, suggesting that economic improvements will be seen in 2025 rather than next year [11] - OpenAI is set to hold a developer conference in San Francisco, focusing on consumer-level AI products [12] - The AI server market is significantly boosting revenue for companies like Hon Hai, which reported record high revenue for the third quarter [12] Company Developments - OpenAI's anticipated developer day may introduce consumer-level AI products, including a potential AI browser [12] - Hon Hai's revenue reached NT$837.1 billion in September, marking a 38.01% increase from August and setting a historical record for the same period [12] - Palantir's stock price fell sharply after the US Army raised concerns about vulnerabilities in its systems [25] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.66%, ending a four-day decline, while Brent crude also saw a similar increase [6] - COMEX gold futures increased by 2.68%, closing at $3,911.20 per ounce [6] Economic Indicators - The US ISM services PMI for September was reported at 50, significantly below expectations, indicating stagnation in the services sector [21] - The services sector, being the largest component of the US economy, showed disappointing performance, with employment shrinking for four consecutive months [21]

曾因精准做空能源巨头安然（Enron）而一战成名的华尔街传奇空头查诺斯（Jim Chanos），如今盯上了一个2万亿美元规模的庞大市 场——私募信贷（Private Credit）。 在他看来，当下蓬勃发展的私募信贷市场，其运作模式与引爆2008年全球金融危机的次级抵押贷款如出一辙。两者最大的共同点在 于"资金来源和最终使用之间存在多层结构"，这种复杂性掩盖了真实风险。 查诺斯将其形容为一个"神奇的机器"：机构投资者将资金投入其中，通过承担优先债务的风险敞口，却能获得堪比股权投资的回报 率。 "这种看似安全的投资所提供的高收益，本身就应该是第一个危险信号，"查诺斯表示。 他认为，这种高收益并非源于价值创造，而是源于精心设计的复杂结构。与2008年的次贷危机类似，风险被隐藏在"资金来源和使用 之间的多层结构"中。资金经过层层打包与转手，最终的贷款人与实际的借款人之间被多个中介隔开，导致底层资产的真实风险变得 模糊不清。 一个极具说服力的例证是，据行业相关媒体报道，一些私募信贷基金经理曾乐观预计，在First Brands本应相对安全的有担保库存债务 上，回报率竟可能超过50%。 近期，美国汽车零部件制造商Fir ...