Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent rebound in steel prices, particularly hot-rolled coil prices, is driven by improved macroeconomic expectations, better-than-expected supply-demand dynamics, and strong performance in raw material prices [1][2][8] - As of July 11, the price of hot-rolled coil main contract reached 3273 yuan/ton, an increase of 221 yuan/ton or 7.24% from the low point in early June [1] - The rebound in steel prices is supported by a positive outlook on macroeconomic conditions, including easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. and expectations for policy support in urban renewal [2][3] Group 2 - The supply-demand dynamics for hot-rolled coils have improved, with significant growth in the automotive and machinery sectors, leading to a positive consumption trend for hot-rolled coils [2] - The prices of coking coal and iron ore have remained strong, providing cost support for steel prices [2] - The manufacturing and export sectors, which are key consumers of hot-rolled coils, may face marginal weakening risks in the second half of the year, potentially impacting demand [4][6] Group 3 - The article highlights that the macroeconomic outlook is expected to continue improving, with potential for synchronized monetary easing between China and the U.S. [3][8] - The manufacturing sector's investment resilience is supported by policies promoting equipment upgrades, although the effectiveness of these policies may diminish in the second half of the year [5][6] - The price gap between cold-rolled and hot-rolled coils has narrowed, indicating weakening downstream demand [6] Group 4 - The current rebound in steel prices is characterized by strong speculative expectations, with the hot-rolled coil main contract price aligning closely with spot prices, creating arbitrage opportunities for traders [7] - There is a risk of a second price dip in late August to September due to potential policy impacts and weaker-than-expected demand recovery [8]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-06 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观预期改善，黑色底部反弹 钢材：宏观预期改善，黑色底部反弹 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日螺纹钢期货和热卷期货跟随黑色板块底部震荡反弹，现货方面，根据我的钢铁网数据显示，全 国螺纹产量、消费和库存均有所下降；热卷产量增加，库存环比回升，消费有所下滑，五大材产销存均环比回落。 供需与逻辑：当前板材维持供需双强的格局，建材产销有所走弱，钢材库存持续去化，出口韧性延续，钢材淡季 预期与现实消费韧性博弈，价格底部反复，后期关注淡季成材需求表现、累库情况及宏观扰动引起的成本支撑。。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪修复，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动。贸易商报价积极性一 般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主，目前市场暂无成交。昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交96.2万吨，环比下跌9.76%；远 期现货累计成交196.0万吨，环比上涨75.31%。根据钢联数据显示，本周247家钢厂日均铁水241.8万吨，环比降0. ...