Report Summary - The report is an oil weekly report from AVIC Futures dated September 19, 2025, focusing on market analysis and trading strategies [2][8] - This week, oil prices first rose then fell, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The trading logic lies in the game between the "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamentals and geopolitics [8] - The report suggests paying attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $61 - 66 per barrel [8][47] Market Focus and Key Data Market Focus - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, starting the first rate cut this year. There is still room for further cuts this year [7][12] - China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue [7] - Russia - Ukraine negotiations paused, escalating geopolitical tensions [7][13] Key Data - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 9.285 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels, with the previous value at 3.939 million barrels [7][37] - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 0.296 million barrels, with the previous value at - 0.365 million barrels [7][43] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending September 12 was 0.504 million barrels, with the previous value at 0.514 million barrels [7][37] Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical disturbances [11] - Shale oil cost support [11] Bearish Factors - Fading expectation of the consumption peak season [11] - Accelerated implementation of OPEC+ production increase [11] Macro Analysis Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 18, the first rate cut in 2025. It is expected to cut rates two more times this year [12] Geopolitical Tensions - Russia - Ukraine negotiations paused, and the US and Europe threatened to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers, but geopolitical disturbances are complex and uncertain, hard to provide clear direction [13] Data Analysis Supply - Side Data - US domestic crude oil production for the week ending September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, but overall supply pressure increased [14] - The total number of US oil rigs as of September 12 was 416, an increase of 2 from the previous period, ending the downward trend since April, but expected to remain low [16] Demand - Side Data - US crude oil implied demand for the week ending September 12 was 20.5 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.297 million barrels per day [20] - US gasoline production implied demand for the week ending September 12 was 9.7823 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.2806 million barrels per day [20] - US refinery utilization rate as of September 12 was 93.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous period [22] - As of September 18, the operating rate of China's major refineries was 81.52%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points, while that of independent refineries was 62.3%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points [28] - As of September 12, the comprehensive refining profit of China's major refineries was 867.05 yuan per ton, an increase of 205.19 yuan per ton, and that of independent refineries was 278.22 yuan per ton, an increase of 90.11 yuan per ton [32] Inventory Data - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 9.285 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory continued to accumulate [37] - US Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 0.296 million barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels [43] Crack Spread Data - As of September 16, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.49 per barrel, showing a slight week - on - week increase, indicating some resilience in US refined oil consumption [44] Outlook - After the Fed's rate - cut expectation materialized, market risk appetite declined, and oil prices were under pressure. The core market contradiction is the game between fundamentals and geopolitics [47] - OPEC+ production increase and the end of the demand peak season strengthen the expectation of supply surplus, while geopolitical conflicts provide intermittent support. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range oscillation [47]

Supply and Demand - As of August 28, the comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 75.13%, an increase of 1.97%, while the coal-based MEG operating rate was 77.74%, a decrease of 3.51% [2] - As of September 1, the estimated port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was approximately 449,000 tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous period [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - The current supply-demand pattern for ethylene glycol is characterized by "strong reality, weak expectations" [3] - Port inventories remain low, and the volume of incoming goods in early September is expected to be neutral to slightly low, indicating potential for further inventory decline [3] - Entering the demand peak season is expected to support ethylene glycol prices in the short term, with limited downside potential for futures [3] - However, the supply-demand expectations for the fourth quarter are weaker due to the seasonal decline in demand and anticipated high domestic supply, leading to a potential accumulation phase for ethylene glycol [3] - The strategy suggests monitoring EG2601 support around 4300 [3] Spot Market - On September 3, ethylene glycol prices were consolidating at low levels, with market discussions remaining acceptable [1] - The spot market transactions for ethylene glycol were reported at a premium of 86-92 yuan/ton for the 01 contract, with some suppliers participating in replenishment [1] - In the international market, ethylene glycol prices were consolidating at low levels, with recent transactions around 520-522 USD/ton [1]

Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report released by AVIC Futures on July 25, 2025 [2] - The current asphalt fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply side decreased, while the shipment volume on the demand side increased slightly. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries, and the social inventory increased slightly, suggesting weak downstream demand [6] - Crude oil currently lacks a core driving factor. Seasonal peak - season consumption demand and improved macro - risk sentiment provide some upward momentum, but OPEC+ continuous production increase suppresses the oil price rebound expectation. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate widely in a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend [6] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3550 - 3700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [7] Multi - empty Focus - The multi - factors for asphalt are marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory, while the empty factors are lower - than - expected demand and high supply [10] Macro Analysis Trade Agreements - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30 in Sweden [11] - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, including issues such as a 15% tariff and supply - chain cooperation [11] - The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on $93 billion worth of US products on July 24. The EU plans to merge two retaliatory tariff lists into one [11] - US President Trump said on July 23 that the US will impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most other countries [11] Oil Market Forecasts - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintains economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. In June, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day [12] - IEA lowers the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 740,000 to 722,000 barrels per day. It raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million to 2.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 1.1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day [12] - The OPEC monthly report is relatively neutral, while the IEA report is relatively pessimistic, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [12] Data Analysis Supply - In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, it is still lower than the production increase plan [13] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production, but there is potential for a seasonal rebound in the third quarter [15] - As of July 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The decline was more obvious in South China and Shandong. The reasons include refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [24] Demand - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 415,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The shipment volume has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks but is still lower than that at the beginning of June, indicating a phased weakening of demand due to southern rainfall [25] - As of July 25, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 14.46%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was flat in most regions this week [28] Import and Export - In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative imports from January - June were 1.725 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.53% [35] - In June, domestic asphalt exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. The cumulative exports from January - June were 279,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 53.36% [38] Inventory - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries [48] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons. The increase was due to the impact of typhoons and rainfall in the southern region on demand [55] Spread - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 514.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.9 yuan/ton. As of July 23, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.94, and as of July 24, the asphalt basis was 133 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread declined this week due to the phased weakening of asphalt fundamentals [60]

Report Summary - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering demand growth forecast [7][8] - Key data shows US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels [8] - The main view is that crude oil prices oscillated weakly this week due to the disappointment of sanctions expectations and the geopolitical premium retreat. Looking ahead, factors are mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern [8][52] - The trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $65 - $69 per barrel [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors are demand improvement expectations and geopolitical uncertainties; bearish factors are OPEC+ production increase expectations and tariff policy uncertainties [12] Macro Analysis - US tariff negotiations progress slowly and are uncertain. Trump is close to a deal with India, no progress with Japan, and there are large differences with the EU [13] - The issue of firing Powell continues, which may lead to the selling of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. The Fed's "Beige Book" is pessimistic about the economy, indicating that the Fed may remain "on hold" [14] - OPEC maintains supply and demand growth forecasts, while IEA raises supply forecast and lowers demand forecast, with OPEC's June production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day [15] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's June crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, an increase of 221,000 barrels per day month - on - month, but still below the production increase plan [16][17] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.375 million barrels per day in the week ending July 11, and is expected to remain low [18] - The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 424 in the week ending July 11, and is expected to stay low [20] Demand - US crude oil consumption demand increased by 1.917 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand decreased by 835,000 barrels per day week - on - week [26] - US refinery utilization rate was 93.9% in the week ending July 11, supporting crude oil consumption, but with limited growth space in the long term [27] - China's major refinery utilization rate was 81.21% as of July 17, down 0.26 percentage points, and independent refinery utilization rate was 58.54%, up 0.52 percentage points [33] - China's major refinery profits decreased due to rising crude oil costs and high - inventory of refined oil products, while independent refinery profits were flat [38] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels [43] - Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels in the week ending July 11 [48] Crack Spread - US crude oil crack spread was $20.7 per barrel as of July 16, rebounding slightly week - on - week, indicating the recovery of refined oil consumption [49] Future Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the oscillating and slightly upward trend in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern due to mixed factors [52]

Core Viewpoints - Iron ore futures showed a slight increase of 0.35%, with the main contract reaching a peak of 730.5 yuan and closing at 725.5 yuan [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the short-term outlook for iron ore prices, with some expecting a strong performance while others anticipate a more volatile market [1][2][3] Group 1: Institutional Insights - Wukuang Futures suggests that iron ore pricing may realign towards "weak expectations" due to limited upward momentum after a recent rebound, despite current demand supporting high price levels [1] - Donghai Futures indicates that steel mills are currently profitable, maintaining high iron water production levels, although a decline in production is likely in the future [2] - Guoxin Guozheng Futures notes that while overseas shipments of iron ore have significantly increased, port inventory has slightly decreased, leading to a short-term outlook of price fluctuations [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Global iron ore shipments increased by 3.188 million tons week-on-week, but port arrivals fell by 2.896 million tons due to previous shipment declines [2] - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for iron ore shipments, suggesting potential increases in both shipment and arrival volumes [2] - Port inventory of iron ore decreased by 1.1936 million tons, indicating a tightening supply in the short term [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound of iron ore prices was due to the "strong reality" not weakening after the "weak expectation" drove the prices down, and the improved expectation after the better - than - expected progress of China - US tariff negotiations led to the upward correction of the futures prices [3][7]. - After the price rebound, the limited upward space of high - level hot metal output makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. In the short term, prices may fluctuate in a range, and after the inflection point of the "strong reality" appears, the futures valuation may move closer to the "weak expectation" pricing [4][16][27]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Impact of China - US Tariff Negotiations on the Original Rhythm - Since late February, the iron ore futures prices showed a trend of "decline - sideways oscillation - decline again". Macro - level positive news and policy disturbances could cause price drops, while high - level hot metal output and inventory depletion provided short - term support after the decline. The price generally followed the pattern of "weak expectation" driving the decline and "strong reality" providing support [7]. - In the past two years, the decline of iron ore prices was often preceded by expectations, followed by the fundamentals. This time, the price rebound was due to the unchanged "strong reality" and the improved expectation [7]. 3.2 Marginal Changes in Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The second quarter is the traditional peak shipping season for overseas mines, and the shipping volume usually increases seasonally. The latest weekly shipping volume reached 3347.8 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase to a high level in the same period. Although affected by hurricanes in the first quarter, Australian mines did not plan to significantly cut their annual shipping targets. The second quarter can be used to observe the marginal increase in iron ore supply [8]. - **Demand Side**: The current hot metal output shows signs of peaking but is expected to remain above 240 tons in the next few weeks. To see the transmission of "declining terminal demand - shrinking steel mill profits - reducing blast furnace production and hot metal output" requires a cycle. The industry maintains a cautious attitude, and the market's view of "weak expectation" has not fundamentally reversed [15][16]. 3.3 Impact of Coke and Coal on Iron Ore - Coke and coal are in a weak position in the black - chain industry. Their continuous price decline since the beginning of the year has transferred some profit space to iron ore, which is one of the reasons why iron ore prices decline in a more oscillatory manner [26]. 3.4 Future Trends - After the easing of China - US trade tensions, the improved expectation led to the upward rebound of iron ore prices. However, due to the limited upward space of high - level hot metal output, the price is likely to fluctuate in the short term. After the inflection point of the "strong reality" appears, the futures valuation may move closer to the "weak expectation" pricing [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market dynamics, highlighting the strong economic data and its impact on stock and bond markets, as well as the performance of gold prices. Group 1: Economic Data and Market Response - March economic data showed strong performance, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year, which was within expectations [5] - The stock market shifted from decline to growth, influenced by the strong economic indicators and a balanced liquidity environment [5] - The average disposable income per capita for the first quarter increased by 5.5% nominally, with a real growth of 5.6% after adjusting for price factors [5] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market exhibited mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield initially opening at 1.654% and later declining to around 1.645% [5] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1,045 million yuan, with a net withdrawal of 144 million yuan due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [3][5] - The weighted average rates for various repo codes showed slight fluctuations, with R001 at 1.71% and R007 at 1.74% [4] Group 3: Gold Market Performance - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing 3,300, indicating strong demand and a competitive market with A-shares [5] - Retail investors, referred to as "A-share stabilizers," are encouraged to remain calm as the market shows resilience [5]

【笔记20250414— "择机"进度 0/3（-3月金融和出口数据超预期-股市偏强+资金面均衡宽松=涨跌不一)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 一般性的工作，可以靠经验去线性外推，但投资是人与人之间心理的博弈，它的思维方式不是线性的，而是逆人性的。如果你的经验还只是停留在对市场 本身的回顾上，而没有提炼为更加客观的、能够战胜人性弱点的投资体系，那么，经验就只会成为你前进的绊脚石，而不是腾飞的垫脚石。 ——笔记哥《应对》 昨晚金融时报揭秘"择机"三大隐藏关卡：第一关：经济虚弱（当前状态：秀肌肉）；第二关：财政氪金（当前状态：紧钱包）；第三关：A市ICU（当前 状态：KTV）。因此目前来看降准降息大礼包还在排队，进度0/3。 近期交易主线："强现实、弱预期"。美国：3月经济数据仍显韧性、通胀数据亦低于预期，但通胀预期数据创下1981年以来新高。中国：3月金融数据和出 口数据均超预期，但债市反应冷漠：虽说现在成绩好，就怕毕业即失业。 央行公开市场开展430亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有935亿元逆回购到期，净回笼505亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金利率小幅上行，DR007回到1.7%上方。 | | | | 银 ...