中航期货 2025-09-19 原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘R要T 01 （1）美联储降息25BP，开启年内首次降息。 （2）中美就妥善解决TikTok问题达成基本框架共识。 （3）俄乌谈判暂停，地缘局势升温。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）美国至9月12日当周EIA原油库存 -928.5万桶，预期-85.7万桶，前值393.9万桶。 （2）美国至9月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -29.6万桶，前值-36.5万桶。 （3）美国至9月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 50.4万桶，前值51.4万桶。 主要观点 本周油价先涨后跌，整体呈现窄幅震荡的行情，主要的交易逻辑仍在于"强现实、弱预期"的基本面和地缘政治 的博弈。美国EIA原油及成品油库存超预期下降，表明需求仍存在一定韧性，但OPEC+开启新一轮增产加大供应端的压 力，同时8月份月报表明OPEC增产加速落地，第一轮增产有望在四季度完全兑现，随着需求旺季进入尾声，四季度供 应过剩的预期逐步强化，对油价 ...

需求：同PTA需求。 【行情展望】 乙二醇目前供需格局为"强现实，弱预期"。现实端，港口库存维持低位，且9月上旬内到货量依旧呈现 中性偏少，短期内港口库存仍有适度下降空间，且进入需求旺季，需求预期季节性提升，对乙二醇形成 支撑，预计短期乙二醇期货下方空间不大。然而，乙二醇四季度供需预期较弱，一方面是需求旺季结束 带来的需求季节性回落，另一方面是乙二醇国内供应量预期较高，四季度乙二醇将进入累库通道，对乙 二醇期货盘面形成压制。策略上，关注EG2601在4300附近支撑。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【供需方面】 供应：截至8月28日，MEG综合开工率和煤制MEG开工率为75.13%（+1.97%）和77.74%（-3.51%）。 库存：截止9月1日，华东主港地区MEG港口库存预估约在 ...

Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report released by AVIC Futures on July 25, 2025 [2] - The current asphalt fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply side decreased, while the shipment volume on the demand side increased slightly. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries, and the social inventory increased slightly, suggesting weak downstream demand [6] - Crude oil currently lacks a core driving factor. Seasonal peak - season consumption demand and improved macro - risk sentiment provide some upward momentum, but OPEC+ continuous production increase suppresses the oil price rebound expectation. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate widely in a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend [6] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3550 - 3700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [7] Multi - empty Focus - The multi - factors for asphalt are marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory, while the empty factors are lower - than - expected demand and high supply [10] Macro Analysis Trade Agreements - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30 in Sweden [11] - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, including issues such as a 15% tariff and supply - chain cooperation [11] - The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on $93 billion worth of US products on July 24. The EU plans to merge two retaliatory tariff lists into one [11] - US President Trump said on July 23 that the US will impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most other countries [11] Oil Market Forecasts - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintains economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. In June, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day [12] - IEA lowers the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 740,000 to 722,000 barrels per day. It raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million to 2.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 1.1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day [12] - The OPEC monthly report is relatively neutral, while the IEA report is relatively pessimistic, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [12] Data Analysis Supply - In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, it is still lower than the production increase plan [13] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production, but there is potential for a seasonal rebound in the third quarter [15] - As of July 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The decline was more obvious in South China and Shandong. The reasons include refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [24] Demand - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 415,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The shipment volume has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks but is still lower than that at the beginning of June, indicating a phased weakening of demand due to southern rainfall [25] - As of July 25, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 14.46%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was flat in most regions this week [28] Import and Export - In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative imports from January - June were 1.725 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.53% [35] - In June, domestic asphalt exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. The cumulative exports from January - June were 279,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 53.36% [38] Inventory - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries [48] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons. The increase was due to the impact of typhoons and rainfall in the southern region on demand [55] Spread - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 514.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.9 yuan/ton. As of July 23, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.94, and as of July 24, the asphalt basis was 133 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread declined this week due to the phased weakening of asphalt fundamentals [60]

Report Summary - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering demand growth forecast [7][8] - Key data shows US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels [8] - The main view is that crude oil prices oscillated weakly this week due to the disappointment of sanctions expectations and the geopolitical premium retreat. Looking ahead, factors are mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern [8][52] - The trading strategy is to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $65 - $69 per barrel [9] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors are demand improvement expectations and geopolitical uncertainties; bearish factors are OPEC+ production increase expectations and tariff policy uncertainties [12] Macro Analysis - US tariff negotiations progress slowly and are uncertain. Trump is close to a deal with India, no progress with Japan, and there are large differences with the EU [13] - The issue of firing Powell continues, which may lead to the selling of the US dollar and Treasury bonds. The Fed's "Beige Book" is pessimistic about the economy, indicating that the Fed may remain "on hold" [14] - OPEC maintains supply and demand growth forecasts, while IEA raises supply forecast and lowers demand forecast, with OPEC's June production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day [15] Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's June crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, an increase of 221,000 barrels per day month - on - month, but still below the production increase plan [16][17] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.375 million barrels per day in the week ending July 11, and is expected to remain low [18] - The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 1 to 424 in the week ending July 11, and is expected to stay low [20] Demand - US crude oil consumption demand increased by 1.917 million barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand decreased by 835,000 barrels per day week - on - week [26] - US refinery utilization rate was 93.9% in the week ending July 11, supporting crude oil consumption, but with limited growth space in the long term [27] - China's major refinery utilization rate was 81.21% as of July 17, down 0.26 percentage points, and independent refinery utilization rate was 58.54%, up 0.52 percentage points [33] - China's major refinery profits decreased due to rising crude oil costs and high - inventory of refined oil products, while independent refinery profits were flat [38] Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels [43] - Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 213,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels in the week ending July 11 [48] Crack Spread - US crude oil crack spread was $20.7 per barrel as of July 16, rebounding slightly week - on - week, indicating the recovery of refined oil consumption [49] Future Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the oscillating and slightly upward trend in the "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern due to mixed factors [52]

Core Viewpoints - Iron ore futures showed a slight increase of 0.35%, with the main contract reaching a peak of 730.5 yuan and closing at 725.5 yuan [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the short-term outlook for iron ore prices, with some expecting a strong performance while others anticipate a more volatile market [1][2][3] Group 1: Institutional Insights - Wukuang Futures suggests that iron ore pricing may realign towards "weak expectations" due to limited upward momentum after a recent rebound, despite current demand supporting high price levels [1] - Donghai Futures indicates that steel mills are currently profitable, maintaining high iron water production levels, although a decline in production is likely in the future [2] - Guoxin Guozheng Futures notes that while overseas shipments of iron ore have significantly increased, port inventory has slightly decreased, leading to a short-term outlook of price fluctuations [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Global iron ore shipments increased by 3.188 million tons week-on-week, but port arrivals fell by 2.896 million tons due to previous shipment declines [2] - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for iron ore shipments, suggesting potential increases in both shipment and arrival volumes [2] - Port inventory of iron ore decreased by 1.1936 million tons, indicating a tightening supply in the short term [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound of iron ore prices was due to the "strong reality" not weakening after the "weak expectation" drove the prices down, and the improved expectation after the better - than - expected progress of China - US tariff negotiations led to the upward correction of the futures prices [3][7]. - After the price rebound, the limited upward space of high - level hot metal output makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. In the short term, prices may fluctuate in a range, and after the inflection point of the "strong reality" appears, the futures valuation may move closer to the "weak expectation" pricing [4][16][27]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Impact of China - US Tariff Negotiations on the Original Rhythm - Since late February, the iron ore futures prices showed a trend of "decline - sideways oscillation - decline again". Macro - level positive news and policy disturbances could cause price drops, while high - level hot metal output and inventory depletion provided short - term support after the decline. The price generally followed the pattern of "weak expectation" driving the decline and "strong reality" providing support [7]. - In the past two years, the decline of iron ore prices was often preceded by expectations, followed by the fundamentals. This time, the price rebound was due to the unchanged "strong reality" and the improved expectation [7]. 3.2 Marginal Changes in Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The second quarter is the traditional peak shipping season for overseas mines, and the shipping volume usually increases seasonally. The latest weekly shipping volume reached 3347.8 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase to a high level in the same period. Although affected by hurricanes in the first quarter, Australian mines did not plan to significantly cut their annual shipping targets. The second quarter can be used to observe the marginal increase in iron ore supply [8]. - **Demand Side**: The current hot metal output shows signs of peaking but is expected to remain above 240 tons in the next few weeks. To see the transmission of "declining terminal demand - shrinking steel mill profits - reducing blast furnace production and hot metal output" requires a cycle. The industry maintains a cautious attitude, and the market's view of "weak expectation" has not fundamentally reversed [15][16]. 3.3 Impact of Coke and Coal on Iron Ore - Coke and coal are in a weak position in the black - chain industry. Their continuous price decline since the beginning of the year has transferred some profit space to iron ore, which is one of the reasons why iron ore prices decline in a more oscillatory manner [26]. 3.4 Future Trends - After the easing of China - US trade tensions, the improved expectation led to the upward rebound of iron ore prices. However, due to the limited upward space of high - level hot metal output, the price is likely to fluctuate in the short term. After the inflection point of the "strong reality" appears, the futures valuation may move closer to the "weak expectation" pricing [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market dynamics, highlighting the strong economic data and its impact on stock and bond markets, as well as the performance of gold prices. Group 1: Economic Data and Market Response - March economic data showed strong performance, with GDP growing by 5.4% year-on-year, which was within expectations [5] - The stock market shifted from decline to growth, influenced by the strong economic indicators and a balanced liquidity environment [5] - The average disposable income per capita for the first quarter increased by 5.5% nominally, with a real growth of 5.6% after adjusting for price factors [5] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market exhibited mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield initially opening at 1.654% and later declining to around 1.645% [5] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1,045 million yuan, with a net withdrawal of 144 million yuan due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [3][5] - The weighted average rates for various repo codes showed slight fluctuations, with R001 at 1.71% and R007 at 1.74% [4] Group 3: Gold Market Performance - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing 3,300, indicating strong demand and a competitive market with A-shares [5] - Retail investors, referred to as "A-share stabilizers," are encouraged to remain calm as the market shows resilience [5]

【笔记20250414— "择机"进度 0/3（-3月金融和出口数据超预期-股市偏强+资金面均衡宽松=涨跌不一)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 一般性的工作，可以靠经验去线性外推，但投资是人与人之间心理的博弈，它的思维方式不是线性的，而是逆人性的。如果你的经验还只是停留在对市场 本身的回顾上，而没有提炼为更加客观的、能够战胜人性弱点的投资体系，那么，经验就只会成为你前进的绊脚石，而不是腾飞的垫脚石。 ——笔记哥《应对》 昨晚金融时报揭秘"择机"三大隐藏关卡：第一关：经济虚弱（当前状态：秀肌肉）；第二关：财政氪金（当前状态：紧钱包）；第三关：A市ICU（当前 状态：KTV）。因此目前来看降准降息大礼包还在排队，进度0/3。 近期交易主线："强现实、弱预期"。美国：3月经济数据仍显韧性、通胀数据亦低于预期，但通胀预期数据创下1981年以来新高。中国：3月金融数据和出 口数据均超预期，但债市反应冷漠：虽说现在成绩好，就怕毕业即失业。 央行公开市场开展430亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有935亿元逆回购到期，净回笼505亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金利率小幅上行，DR007回到1.7%上方。 | | | | 银 ...